000
FXUS63 KDDC 151903
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
203 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED BROAD RIDGING CONTINUING OVER THE
LOWER 48 STATES. NUMEROUS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW OVER THE RIDGE. A STRONGER WAVE EXTENDED FROM OVER
WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS
WAVE HAD BROUGHT SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WESTERN KANSAS WHICH HAVE SINCE MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS WAVE...SUBSIDENCE WAS
SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
TO THE WEST OF THIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ADVECT INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

IT APPEARS THAT PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS COULD HAVE
A DECENT SHOT AT RECEIVING RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW A TREND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS TREND AS
WELL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THAT MODEL ARE SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO THEN MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING. THINK
THAT THE TWO AREAS OF STORMS DEPICTED BY THE HRRR MAY BE CORRECT
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. THE SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION MAY QUASH
ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AREA
BECOMING UNCAPPED BY 00Z SO CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO.
LATER TONIGHT AM EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OUT INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 50-55 PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA
NORTH OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE THROUGH MONTEZUMA, DODGE CITY AND
LARNED BASED OFF OF TRENDS IN THE HRRR. THE MODELS HINT AT A LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP SUSTAIN THINGS INTO
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS BUT THINK WE WILL SEE A DECREASING TREND
AFTER 06Z.

SUNDAY SHOULD STAR OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HARD TO TELL WHERE EXACTLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL POSITION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF INCREASING POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MAY ALSO
BE A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE RAINFALL
OCCURS TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW 90S OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS MODELS DEPICT AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SPC HAS PLACED A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED. WINDS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY WHERE LOWER 90S WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL IN TURN ALLOW LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS
AT THE TAF SITES FOR THAT POSSIBILITY EARLY ON. BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z, MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM EASTERN
COLORADO SO WILL CARRY A PREVAILING PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
TAF SITES LATER IN THE EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  89  64  85 /  50  40  50  20
GCK  66  89  64  86 /  50  40  50  30
EHA  66  92  64  87 /  30  20  20  30
LBL  67  91  64  86 /  30  30  50  30
HYS  66  87  64  87 /  50  50  70  10
P28  69  91  68  88 /  30  40  90  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD