Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 150006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
606 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Drier conditions are expected tonight into Friday as an upper level
shortwave trough kicks eastward across the Central Plains giving way
to a northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. A weaker
flow aloft and much drier air infiltrating into the high plains will
preclude any chances for precip during the period. Clearing skies
and colder air spreading into western Kansas tonight will allow
temperatures to drop down into the teens(F) across west central
Kansas tonight to lows in the 20s(F) in south central Kansas. A lee
side trough of low pressure will slowly develop and strengthen
across eastern Colorado Friday setting up a westerly downslope flow
across western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures well above 0C. Under
mostly sunny skies, look for highs well up into the 50s(F) Friday

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

A dry pattern will continue into the early part of a the weekend
regardless of weak ridging aloft breaking down as it shifts eastward
across the Central Plains. A weak relatively weak flow aloft and a
lack of moisture will keep precip chances at bay through Saturday
night. There is an outside shot for extremely light precip Sunday as
medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough lifting
across the Texas Panhandle into the Central Plains early in the
period. Meanwhile, a secondary upper level trough will transition
eastward across the Intermountain West, ushering an attendant
frontal boundary across western Kansas early Sunday. Although
moisture will be a bit limited across much of western Kansas, a pool
of increased moisture will spread northward into eastern and
portions of central Kansas ahead of the approaching frontal
boundary.  A strong southwest flow aloft and increased lift
associated with the frontal boundary may be enough to trigger precip
across portions of central and south central Kansas. Initial precip
is expected to be light rain with a potential switchover to light
snow as colder air surges into the area behind the front. A
quiet/dry pattern returns through the middle part of the week as a
zonal flow aloft slowly develops during the period.

Well above normal temperatures are likely Saturday even as a cold
front begins to push into western Kansas early in the day. Surface
low pressure will deepen across southeast Colorado and extreme
southwest Kansas creating a strong low level southerly flow ahead of
the approaching frontal boundary. This will draw warmer air into the
area pushing H85 temperatures up near 10C. Expect highs to push the
lower 60s(F) in south central and portions of southwest Kansas with
the mid to upper 50s(F) behind the front across west central Kansas.
Colder air will surge into western Kansas Sunday in wake of the
frontal passage, lowering H85 temperatures to near 0C. Expect highs
only up into the 40s(F) Sunday afternoon. Highs will bounce back a
little Monday as westerly downslope flow develops across western
Kansas. Look for highs nearing the lower to mid 50s(F) Monday


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Weak surface high pressure will shift south tonight and be
replaced by a weak surface trough across the high plains.
VFR conditions will persist. A few sprinkles or flurries will
move of the area this evening with decreasing clouds.


DDC  21  58  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  18  58  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  21  60  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  20  59  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  20  58  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
P28  25  57  29  62 /   0   0   0   0




LONG TERM...JJohnson
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