Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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679
FXUS63 KDDC 221153
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
653 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

A large upper level low will continue to dig into the Western
United States through the short term period. Mostly clear skies
are anticipated across the CWA through the early afternoon hours
with cumulus clouds developing along the KS/CO border as we head
into late afternoon. A few storms are expected to develop in this
area and spread eastward this evening into the overnight hours.
The best chance of precipitation will be across far western Kansas
with a lesser of the chance as you head eastward. Mostly cloudy
skies are expected tonight due to the aforementioned storm
development. Winds will continue to be breezy and from a southerly
direction due to a trough of low pressure across eastern Colorado.
As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the low to mid
90s with lows tonight ranging from the low 60s along the KS/CO
border to low 70s across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

A wet pattern is expected this weekend into at least the first
part of next week as an upper level low slides eastward with
shortwaves moving around its periphery. The best chance of
precipitation will start out across far western Kansas Saturday
spreading eastward across the remainder of the CWA Sunday and
Monday. These storms are not expected to be severe, but heavy rain
and frequent lighting will be possible. A strong cold front will
move through the area Monday night into Tuesday leading to much
cooler temperatures across the forecast area. Winds before this
frontal passage will generally be from a southerly direction
shifting to a northerly direction behind the front. A slight
chance of precipitation will be possible as we head into the mid
part of next week, but confidence is low at this time. As for
temperatures, highs start out Saturday ranging from the upper 70s
west to upper 80s across central Kansas. Highs Sunday range from
the mid 70s west to upper 80s central Kansas then range from the
upper 60s west to upper 70s east on Monday. Slightly below normal
temperatures are anticipated through the remainder of the long
term period with low 70s expected Monday through Thursday. Lows
will start out ranging from the upper 50s west to upper 60s east
Saturday night, low 50s to mid 60s Sunday night, then mid 40s to
upper 50s Monday night. Lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s are
expected throughout the remainder of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

As western Kansas remains in the warm sector ahead of a slow
moving storm system, the wind situation will remain nearly
unchanged. South winds are once again forecast at 18 to 24 knots
today, strongest during the typical mid to late afternoon hours.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the leeside trough, but will only carry VCTS at LBL terminal
for now, as they should be closest to the axis of any late
afternoon/evening convection. More widespread thunderstorm impacts
are expected beginning late Saturday and lasting through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  70  86  66 /  10  10  20  30
GCK  94  67  84  62 /  10  30  50  70
EHA  90  63  79  59 /  30  40  70  70
LBL  93  67  84  63 /  10  30  40  60
HYS  96  72  87  68 /   0  10  20  30
P28  93  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid



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