Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 312040
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE
APPROACHES, AN H5 VORT MAXIMA IS PROJECTED TO CREST THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS.
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK, ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS TO PROVIDE MODEST INSTABILITY
WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OFF THE FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING AS THE H5 VORT MAXIMA KICKS
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT INTO PORTIONS
OF WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT AS A
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S(F), LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THE PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON RAISING H85
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO NEAR 25C OUT BY THE COLORADO BORDER. SHOULD SEE HIGHS UP
INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIDESPREAD 80S(F)
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A WARMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH REINFORCING RIDGING ON THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS 850MB WARM ADVECTION MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS. SOME STRATUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY
MORNING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
RIDE THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THEN MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND WARM NOSE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, OR THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  80  62  85 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  55  82  62  87 /  20   0  20  10
EHA  58  88  58  90 /  20   0  20  10
LBL  57  83  62  87 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  53  78  61  84 /  20  20  20  10
P28  55  78  62  84 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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