Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260653
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
153 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

NAM AND GFS WERE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY AND THEN ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCEAPPROACHES
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. BY LATE DAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AN AREA OF
HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS POOLING JUST NORTH/WEST OF THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO DISAGREE ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE BY LATE DAY THE NAM AND GFS DO AGREE THAT LATE
DAY SURFACE BASED CAPES ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
RANGE FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF AN ELKHART TO RUSH CENTER AREAS LATE TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT. 0-6KM SHEAR HOWEVER FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20KNOTS SO A
FEW STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE DAY, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BASED ON 00Z 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM AND GFS.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME WILL PLACE
THE HIGHER CHANCES JUST AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE AS IT CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 03Z WEDNESDAY AND 09Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 10C. THE BEST CHANCE OF THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND
POINTS NORTHWARD FROM THERE WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO COOL TO AROUND
10C THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SO THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER AND MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES DROP FURTHER, THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS,
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY, AND THEN FALL INTO THE 80S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER TO BRING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE GFS
THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLOW WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WITH LEE TROUGHING BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE AGAIN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME QUITE WARM SO THAT MID LEVEL CAPPING MAY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

LATEST RADAR TREND SHOWING CONVECTION TAPERING OFF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 05Z. THIS WAS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
NAM AND HRRR SOLUTION. THESE MODELS ALSO INDICATED THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
STAY NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE HAYS AREA. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 10000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EASTERLY WINDS AT
10KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69  92  68 /  30  30  30  40
GCK  93  67  90  66 /  40  40  40  50
EHA  93  66  88  65 /  40  30  40  40
LBL  94  68  92  67 /  40  30  40  40
HYS  93  68  91  67 /  40  50  50  60
P28  99  73  96  71 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT



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