Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

A clear sky across Kansas early this morning, with thin cirrus
approaching from the west. Patchy fog possible along the I-70
corridor around sunrise.

Sunny, hot and windy today. Upper high at 594 dm centered near
Childress this morning will migrate to northern Oklahoma by this
evening. Atmosphere remains essentially just as hot as it was
yesterday, so mid to upper 90s will return this afternoon. The
record highs for September 20th will be challenged in several
places, including the standing record of 95 at Dodge City
set in 1970. A couple differences today will be increasing cirrus
and increasing wind. High clouds will filter in from the west
through this evening, and south winds of 15-30 mph will be common
as lee trough intensifies in eastern Colorado. Very warm tonight
as cirrus prevents radiational cooling, and south winds keep the
boundary layer mixed. Eastern 1/2 of the CWA will struggle to fall
below 70 degrees Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

SW Kansas will remain in a warm pattern, with both high and low
temperatures well above normal Wednesday through Friday. SW KS
will remain on the W/NW periphery of a sprawling upper high, with
lower 90s common both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. South
winds will be gusty and persistent, gusting over 30 mph during the
peak heating hours. 00z NAM/GFS both depict various weak vorticity
maxima embedded in the SW flow aloft Wednesday afternoon/night.
Both models suggest convective QPF across mainly the N/NE zones,
so kept some shower/thunderstorm mention during this time frame.
All zones will be dry again Thursday under a shortwave ridge
emanating from the subtropical high.

Strong south winds expected Friday, as Great Basin closed low
lifts into the northern Rockies. 00z GFS cranks 850 mb winds to
near 45 kts Friday afternoon, so gusts over 40 mph seem likely
Friday and Friday evening. Still dry and a couple degrees cooler
in the upper 80s to near 90.

High confidence in cooler weather Saturday through Monday as broad
trough oozes onto the plains. What is much more uncertain is
rainfall potential from this pattern change. Extended model blend
still offering 40-60% coverage of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday through Sunday. Operational GFS suggests rain is most
likely Saturday afternoon/evening. with some agreement on this
from ECMWF. Have noted the axis of heavy rain has shifted further
east on the latest ECMWF, along a Topeka-Wichita line, so it is
too early to say how much of a rain event this will be for SW


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

The overall state of the sensible weather will remain unchanged
through the period. South winds during the late morning through
late afternoon hours will be 16 to 20 knots sustained both today
and Wednesday. Since we are well into the warm sector with only
marginal moisture around, sky conditions will remain VFR. Isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms may move toward GCK by late day


DDC  96  70  91  68 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  98  69  91  66 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  95  64  87  64 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  97  66  91  67 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  98  71  90  67 /   0  10  20  30
P28  94  71  93  68 /   0   0  10  10


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.