Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291848
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
148 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CA/NV BORDER, WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH COLORADO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, LEE
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AROUND
PEAK HEATING AND SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING SPREADING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THE FARTHER WEST THEY GO. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CLEARING IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 80
DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STARTING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE GOING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA, TAKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES,
EXITING THERE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ENTERING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GIVING A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR HAYS,
SAINT JOHN AND MEDICINE LODGE, WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MIGRATING THROUGH TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RAINSHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE 50 PERCENT CHANCE
RANGE, AND INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH AS MORTON, MEADE AND COLDWATER COUNTIES. NOT
TOO MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE RECENT FALL PERIOD TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S IN THE SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY AREAS,
AND WILL BE AROUND 70F DEGREES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

BEYOND THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, EITHER. FRIDAY
WILL HAVE COOL MODERATING TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, BUT THEN SHOULD INCREASE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S RANGE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, AS WELL AS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. IN BETWEEN, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE COOL, WITH MINS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT GENERALLY WEST AND NORTH OF KDDC. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
KGCK AND KHYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY STORMS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  83  57  81 /  30  30  20  20
GCK  57  81  54  78 /  40  20  10  30
EHA  57  80  50  78 /  60  10   0  10
LBL  61  83  53  80 /  30  20  10  10
HYS  62  82  58  77 /  80  40  20  40
P28  63  85  63  86 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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