Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242356
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
656 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Clear skies tonight  over the area will lead to good radiational
cooling conditions. increase  in theta-e should hold temperatures up
around 10 degrees warmer than the previous night, primarily in the
upper 40s to around 50 F. There will be a decent 40 knot 850 mb jet
by 12 Z, which should readily mix out by the post sunrise hours,
allowing breezy conditions with gusts in the 20-25 knot range
lasting through the day. The boundary layer winds turn westerly as
well, accounting for significant adiabatic downslope flow over the
western half of the area. Models trend towards upper 80s to around
90 F for highs in the far west with moderate SBCAPE axis forming
from western Oklahoma into northwest KS and NE Colorado by late in
the afternoon. NAM/WRF has been showing initial convective
development across far northern Colorado for Thursday, which would
take some time (late evening at earliest) to move far enough east to
impact the interstate 70 corridor, remaining relegated to west
central Kansas with a primarily convective wind threat.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

By Friday, temperatures may not be as warm following convective
outflow and a weak cold front. However easterly upslope flow will be
redeveloping with a more broad instability field modeled much
farther southwest across southwest. Convective initiation Friday is
still expected over the higher terrain in Colorado, driven east
by the steering flow and instability axis over western Kansas with
a higher threat of severe weather with better low level storm
relative flow. A cooling trend going into the weekend with highs
only in the 70s with relatively light north winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

A surface trough will develop in the lee of the Rockies through
the period, resulting in south winds at the TAF sites. The wind
may shift to the west at KLBL and KGCK by 18z as the dryline
passes. VFR condtions will persist and there is only a slight
chance of a t-storm at KDDC after 21z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  84  56  80 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  50  91  54  80 /   0  10  20  20
EHA  51  91  53  81 /   0  10   0  20
LBL  51  92  55  82 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  49  81  56  78 /   0   0  40  10
P28  50  83  60  84 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch



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