Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 160834
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
234 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

A trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen along the lee
of the Rockies today as westerly down slope flow improves across
eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Based on the 24 hour
temperature change in the 900mb to 850mb level the highs today
should easily climb back into the 60s. Most locations across
western Kansas will be in the mid to upper 60s. Highs in the lower
70s still appear likely near the Colorado border.

South winds at 10 to 20 mph, increasing clouds after midnight,
and warm boundary layer winds will keep temperatures up tonight
when compared to earlier this morning. Lows tonight are expected
to be mainly in the mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Models on Friday are in decent agreement with a cold front
dropping south across Nebraska during the day as an upper level
trough approaches from the west. Near record to record highs will
be possible ahead of this cold front based on the expected depth
of the mixed layer and the forecast temperatures across southwest
Kansas in the 850mb and 700mb level at 21z Friday and 00z
Saturday. In addition to these warm temperatures it will be windy
and dry which will result in elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions, mainly west of highway 183. The lowest
afternoon relative humidity values are currently expected be south
and southwest of Dodge City.

Friday night the cold front will surge south across western
Kansas. By early Saturday morning the NAM and GFS model soundings
both indicated 40 to 50 knot 900mb to 850mb winds spreading across
western Kansas behind this front along with a tight surface
pressure gradient. Saturday morning will be very windy and cold.
Gusty northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph and lows in the low to mid
30s can be expected Saturday morning. Wind chills of 20 to 25
degrees will also be possible in many locations. Post frontal
precipitation chances Friday night not completely out of the
question at this time but currently any precipitation will be
light and mainly confined to north central Kansas based on the mid
level moisture and lift ahead of an upper level trough that will
cross western Kansas during the overnight hours.

The coldest air behind this cold front early this weekend is
forecast to stay east of western Kansas as the surface high
crosses the central Plains. Across western Kansas this weekend a
westerly down slope flow will return and erode this cold air from
west to east. High temperatures this weekend are currently
expected to warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the upper
50s to near 60 on Sunday.

The warming trend will continue on Monday based on the warming
900mb to 850mb temperatures forecast by the GFS and ECMWF from 00z
Monday to 00z Tuesday. Monday night another cold frontal passage
is still on track to cross western Kansas which will bring another
round of cooler, more seasonal, temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Southeast winds at around 10 knots can be expected overnight as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops over eastern
Colorado. These winds will increase to around 20 knots between 15
and 18z Thursday as stronger winds in the boundary layer mixes
down to the surface, and the surface trough over eastern Colorado
deepens during the day. Model soundings indicating VFR conditions
over the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Elevated fire to critical weather conditions will return to
western Kansas on Thursday as gusty southeasterly winds develop
during the day and afternoon relative humidity values fall back
into 13 to 25 percent range. The lowest relative humidity values
Thursday afternoon currently appears to be west and north of
Garden City so will be issuing a fire weather watch for this
location Thursday afternoon. Any open burning should be avoided
due to the increasing winds and low humidity in and near this
watch area.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  47  80  39 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  64  43  78  36 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  72  46  79  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  69  44  81  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  61  44  74  39 /   0   0   0  20
P28  61  48  80  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert



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