Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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219
FXUS63 KDDC 220849
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
349 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The convective allowing models indicate convection through the day,
while having been overdoing this very same convective output on the
mid shift. There is probably better confidence in convective
initiation occurring along the dryline in the late afternoon
somewhere along the highway 83 corridor. No real significant chance
in the environment is present today over yesterday. Hail in excess
of 2 inches, damaging wind and tornadoes are all possible threats
through the mid evening. With storm motions north northeast, the
most severe storms are not likely to propagate very far east, however
lingering convection could develop into central Kansas into the
overnight hours, as well as some activity along a weak pacific
origin cold front making its way into the area by early Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Severe weather chances exist for our area for the next several days
as the pattern of relatively moderate instability, and weak upper
forcing remains stagnant. Storms will typically develop along the
dryline diurnally and probably be followed by yet another round
of stratus development for the overnight in this cycle. Monday
the pacific front look to have enough influence to favor the far
eastern counties for severe storms vs. the far west. The synoptic
pattern appears persistent overall leaving out the smaller scale
details. A shortwave moving through Friday will have little impact
on the overall synoptic pattern heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Stratus returns tonight as the boundary layer cools. We can
expect to see between 800 to 400 ft ceilings at times through mid
morning. Scattered convection may develop once the atmosphere
destabilizes later in the afternoon Sunday, however the
confidence is low for timing and location for TAF purposes.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  62  84  61 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  81  59  84  56 /  20  30   0  10
EHA  83  56  85  53 /  20  30  10   0
LBL  82  61  87  57 /  10  20  10  10
HYS  82  61  81  62 /  20  20  30  30
P28  81  64  82  66 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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