Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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517
FXUS63 KDDC 250512
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1212 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure digging
southeast across the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, an area
of low pressure is anchored across southeast Colorado with an
attendant frontal boundary extending northeast across northwest
Kansas into southern Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Upper air analysis showed a strong upper level jet extending from
the eastern Pacific into the central High Plains this afternoon. A
weak shortwave/vort max was moving through northeast Colorado this
afternoon on the cyclonic side of the upper jet. At the surface,
a low pressure trough had moved out into central and southwest Kansas
today. Short range models show the shortwave trough moving northeast
tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late this
afternoon over eastern Colorado will move across northwest Kansas
into Nebraska later tonight with the shortwave. This activity should
stay north of the Dodge City forecast area tonight.

On Tuesday, a surface low moves east through the central High
Plains. A cold front will drop south across southwest and central
Kansas behind the low and will be moving through the Medicine
Lodge area by mid afternoon. This front should be clearing south
central Kansas during the afternoon but there could be a small
window of opportunity for some thunderstorms to develop along the
front over the far southeast counties. The atmosphere is not
overly unstable over the area tomorrow afternoon but 0-6km shear
is pushing 60-70 knots. Depending on how much low level mixing we
can get immediately behind the front, there could be a narrow
window of opportunity for an isolated marginally severe storm
producing strong winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

On Monday night, another stronger shortwave moves out of the Rockies
into the central and southern Plains. The mid levels of the atmosphere
moisten up by late afternoon into the evening hours ahead of this
wave. The models generally agree on an area of showers and thunderstorms
developing over southeast Colorado and into southwest Kansas during
the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of the convective allowing
models are hinting at updraft helicity swaths with a few of the storms.
Models may be picking up on the strong shear aloft but think that
the severe potential should diminish as CAPE values drop significantly
farther behind the front. Precipitation chances could linger into
Wednesday over south central Kansas before the upper wave moves
east of the area.

Wednesday into Thursday should be relatively quiet as weak shortwave
ridging moves over the central High Plains. Another shortwave trough
will be diving out of the central Rockies toward the central High
Plains on Thursday. Ahead of this wave, the surface front lifts
back north into western Kansas. Model soundings from the GFS show
another window of opportunity for a few severe storms along a Dighton-
Garden City-Dodge City-Ashland corridor as MUCAPE increases to near
1000 j/kg and shear values are around 50 kts. There could be some
fire weather issues over far southwest Kansas where deep layer
mixing and a dry airmass exist to the west of the front.

The next and strongest storm system develops toward the weekend as
an upper level low develops over the Four Corners region late Friday
night and then lifts to the east northeast into the weekend. The
models show some cold air pushing into far western Kansas on Saturday
into Saturday night. This could result in a rain/snow mix or a
changeover to snow over western portions of Kansas Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night before the precipitation ends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Tuesday
morning. Low level stratus will develop along and behind a cold
front pushing across northwest Kansas into central Kansas by mid
to late morning. MVFR cigs will be possible in the vicinity of
KHYS generally after 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
to persist at KGCK and KDDC into Tuesday afternoon. Light and
variable winds will persist across extreme southwest Kansas
overnight while a surface low remains anchored across southeast
Colorado. Meanwhile, east to southeasterly winds 10 to 20kt will
continue further east across eastern portions of southwest Kansas
into central Kansas. Northerly winds 15 to 25kt will develop
behind a cold front as it moves southeastward across western
Kansas mid to late Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  71  39  58 /   0  40  60  30
GCK  49  67  38  59 /   0  40  70  10
EHA  52  68  39  60 /   0  40  70  20
LBL  52  73  40  60 /   0  40  60  30
HYS  51  63  39  56 /   0  20  50  20
P28  56  78  44  57 /   0  20  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson



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