Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280527
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY QUIESCENT IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN
THE BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN IOWA AND THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE IN WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE IOWA CYCLONE WILL BEGIN
TO OPEN UP AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE VIGOROUS TROUGH IN
CENTRAL CANADA RIPPLES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFYING RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
CURRENTLY IN CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, ALL OF THE EXCITEMENT WILL OCCUR BEYOND THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AS SOME OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE IN WEST TEXAS HAS SPREAD NORTH INTO KANSAS, AND AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED LATE THIS
MORNING EAST OF A LINE FROM GCK TO HLC. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL PROPAGATE INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BY
SUNDAY EVENING, AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE DIVERGENT IN
WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE NO
MORE PLENTIFUL SUNDAY THAN TODAY, BUT THERE STILL WILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR SOME CUMULUS AGAIN SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL IS NEAR ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LIKELY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A CONSEQUENCE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
WINDS. SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S AND SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. H8
TEMPERATURES ON THE ECMWF, GFS AND GEM ARE A FEW TENTHS OF A DEGREE
LOWER SUNDAY THAN TODAY. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE SOME THIN
CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS SUNDAY AS A HIGH LEVEL TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO
LIFTS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AS A CONSEQUENCE, HIGHS SUNDAY MAY BE A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERAL MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING, AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. SURFACE
FEATURES SO NOT SUPPORT FOG HOWEVER THE NAM MODEL IS HINGING AT SOME
POTENTIAL  MVFR TYPE CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE, THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
SEE MODERATE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION OF NEBRASKA. THIS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE
AND 850 HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF DIFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC WAVE ARRIVES TUESDAY. A SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FOR MOIST DEEP CONVECTION WITH SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL. THE
69 HOUR NAM RUN SHOWED SOME SEMBLENCE OF A QLCS MONDAY EVENING WITH
THIS PATTERN. BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS WELL AS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE TRANSITIONING MEAN TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL AND MOS
CONSENSUS`S DRIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S AND UPPER  60`S
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW 40S BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AOA060 THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10
TO 12 KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS WILL BE FELT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  84  60  81 /   0   0  60  40
GCK  60  84  58  81 /   0  20  70  20
EHA  59  82  56  78 /  10  50  60  20
LBL  60  84  60  81 /   0  20  70  20
HYS  61  84  61  80 /  10  10  70  50
P28  62  86  64  85 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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