Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...Updated Aviation...

Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Surface troughing was allowing for some low level moisture
return through the panhandles and into extreme southwest Kansas
this afternoon. Even a couple of showers had popped up in
the Oklahoma Panhandle. Upper level ridging over the southern and
central plains will gradually shift back to the west over the
Rockies over the next several days. Meanwhile, an upper level
disturbance will move over the ridge to the north of Kansas by
Wednesday morning, helping to push a cold front through Kansas
Wednesday night. Surface high pressure in the wake of the front
will build across the central plains Thursday and Friday before
weakening.The upper level ridge will shift even farther west by
the weekend, with northwesterly mid to high level flow across the
plains and Midwest.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

It`s not out of the question that a shower could develop near
Liberal or Hugoton before the afternoon is over and any activity
that does develop should quickly dissipate with the loss of
daytime heating given the lack of upper level support. With weak
lee troughing and upper level ridging, temperatures should rise
again through Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 90s
after lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Given the absence of
surface fronts and presence of upper level ridging, precipitation
is not expected on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

The warmest day will be ahead of the front on Wednesday when
temperatures could meet or exceed 100 agrees. There is a
chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday along the front.
Thursday and maybe even Friday should be dry as surface
high pressure builds in. The gridded forecast indicated
small chances for storms along the Oklahoma state line
close to the front on Thursday but this may end up being
father south near the front. Temperatures will be much cooler by
Thursday with highs in the 80s. Temperatures will remain cooler
for the weekend with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. There is a lot
of uncertainty for the weekend given the northwesterly flow at
mid and upper levels, which sometimes can lead to nocturnal
thunderstorm activity across western Kansas.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

VFR expected to prevail through this TAF cycle. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible within 50 miles of LBL through early
evening, but not worth a mention in the TAF. SE winds diminish
and cumulus dissipate after sunset, with SKC and S/SE winds
8-10 kts overnight. After 15z Tue, south winds increase at all
airports, averaging 15-25 kts. With increasing instability,
expecting a SCT/BKN cumulus field near 9k ft AGL after 19z Tue.
NAM model suggests isolated convection near GCK/DDC/LBL Tuesday
afternoon. Believe this is overdone with capping/ridging aloft,
and since other models are dry, kept any convective mention out
of the TAFs for Tuesday afternoon/evening.


DDC  71  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  30
GCK  70  98  73  96 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  70  96  72  89 /  10  20  10  20
LBL  72 100  74  98 /  10  20  10  20
HYS  72  99  76  98 /  10  10  20  30
P28  72  99  76 102 /  10  10  10  10




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