Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271115
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
615 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS TODAY, THEN MOVES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS, SHIFTING ABRUPTLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND
INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH. COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SLACKEN IN THE AFTERNOON A BIT TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVES IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT MID
LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LACKING FOR ANY RAINFALL. HIGHS
TODAY, WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S. THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA WILL BE LAST
TO SEE THE COLD FRONT BY AROUND NOON, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 70S.

TONIGHT, MID CLOUDS THICKEN WITH SOME STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING FROM FAR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THEN ACROSS THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE
THAT ONLY SOME VIRGA WILL FALL WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND WITH THE STRONG
MID LEVEL FORCING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WITH THE COLDEST IN THE FAR WEST CENTRAL AREAS FROM SCOTT CITY TO
JOHNSON CITY AND WEST. THE WINDS WILL COME DOWN TO AROUND 8 TO 10
MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT THOUGHTS, WITH THE GOOD MID LEVEL
CLOUD LAYER AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS, ARE THAT FREEZING CONDITIONS
ARE NOT LIKELY. WILL HOWEVER KEEP A MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN
THE FORECAST TO COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS RATHER DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO MUCH OF KANSAS WILL
HELP REINFORCE A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 12C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S(F). A LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KICKS OFF TO THE EAST WHILE LEE SIDE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL DRAW
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS PUSHING HIGHS UP
INTO THE 70S(F) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ARE THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CYCLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SENDING AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY 25 TO 35KT THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  39  65  38 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  68  36  64  36 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  67  37  63  40 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  70  37  66  38 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  67  36  64  36 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  42  67  38 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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