Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 121847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
147 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave moving eastward
out of southern California across the Four Corners Region tonight
and eventually into the Western High Plains early Sunday morning
bringing the possibility for precip from the Colorado Rockies
east-northeastward into the plains of Nebraska and portions of
northern Kansas. However, extremely dry air in the lower levels
associated with a surface low anchored across extreme southwest
Kansas will limit precip chances across southwest Kansas tonight.
Precip chances will begin to increase throughout the day Sunday as
the upper level shortwave pushes further east into the Central
Plains. As it moves through, an attendant cold front will surge
southward across western Kansas. Meanwhile, low/mid level moisture
will lift northward across eastern Oklahoma into southeastern
Kansas ahead of an advancing surface low, then wrap around the low
into north central and northwest Kansas with H85 dewpoints near
10C. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly marginal,
increased post-frontal H7 frontogenesis banding will provide
enough lift to support precip development across central and
portions of southwest Kansas Sunday afternoon. Vertical
temperature profiles in NAM/GFS model soundings indicate liquid
for any precip through late Sunday afternoon with rainfall amounts
generally less than one quarter inch.

Temperatures will be well above normal tonight as the fairly warm
air mass from this morning remains in place across central and
southwest Kansas with H85 temperatures around 20C. Look for lows
down into the 50s(F) across much of central and southwest Kansas
by early Sunday morning. A strong cold front will then push
southward across western Kansas early Sunday morning allowing much
colder air to surge down into the area. As a result, highs will
not climb above the 50s(F) in central and far southwest Kansas
with temperatures falling throughout the afternoon. Expect highs
well up into the 60s(F) across south central Kansas where the
front is not expected to move through until early to mid afternoon.
A few lower 70s(F) cannot be ruled out in south central Kansas
near the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

The forecast on whole was in pretty good shape for the most part,
however the greatest change was the increased detail in POPs for
Sunday as subsynoptic scale details are beginning to emerge with
greater skill. The higher resolution NAM12 and WRF-ARW models were
used in tandem with the ECMWF model to arrive at the official
precipitation forecast for Sunday and Sunday Night...as these two
mesoscale models were showing the most reasonable precipitation
signals against where the ECMWF was showing the best 700mb
frontogenetic forcing. The first half of Sunday will be mainly dry
across much of the forecast area with the 700mb saturated baroclinic
zone still situated from east central CO into northwestern KS. The
first shortwave trough which helped induce this 700mb zone of
frontogenesis will be moving across Oklahoma/southern Kansas during
the day Sunday. We will keep some chance POPs in Barber County for
early afternoon thunderstorm potential, but anything that develops
that far northwest early in the day will quickly move out of the
western portions of south central Kansas as the surface front
advances east. We will maintain the original forecast of
temperatures falling through the 40s across much of southwest Kansas
during the afternoon hours as intense low level cold air advection
maximizes from late morning through mid-afternoon. This will also be
when the north winds will be strongest with 25 to 35 mph sustained
winds during the 3-5 hr period of greatest pressure rises.

Precipitation chances ramp up during the afternoon hours in the
northwest (northwest of Hugoton-Garden City-LaCrosse line) as the
700mb saturated baroclinic zone slowly pushes south. The zone of
frontogenesis will become more elongated and actually weaken by
afternoon into Sunday evening as the shortwave trough digging south
through western Colorado will alter the 700mb flow field favoring
greatest lift out west. We will have the highest POPs Sunday Night
in the far west and during this time is when precipitation will
change to all snow as 850mb temperatures fall to colder than -2C
over much of southwest Kansas. We will carry around an inch to inch
and a half of snow in the grids generally west of Highway 25 to the
Colorado border, with a sloppy half inch or less elsewhere mainly on
grassy and elevated surfaces. Freezing temperatures early Monday
morning are likely, especially west of an Ashland to Bucklin to
Larned line.

Monday and beyond...the weather will quiet down as upper level
ridging moves toward the High Plains. The ridge will quickly flatten
out with more zonal west-northwest flow taking shape by late
Tuesday.  The result will be lee trough development and a warming of
temperatures back into the 60s.  Wednesday will be the warmest day
just ahead of the next front as a shortwave trough moves across the
Northern Plains. There will be another fresh resurgence of cold air
into western Kansas late in the week with highs Thursday down into
the lower to mid 50s.  The AllBlend guidance appears to be on the
warm side per latest ECMWF model, so the official forecast
temperatures for Thursday will likely continue to drop. Any
precipitation with this frontal system Wednesday Night into Thursday
should be fairly light given the fast-moving nature of the storm
system within the larger scale pattern and the fact that the main
500mb vorticity anomaly will be passing north of western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. As for winds, a lee side trough of low pressure across
extreme western Kansas will push slowly eastward across the area
into central Kansas through tonight resulting in light and variable
winds. A cold front will then push southward across western Kansas
early Sunday morning turning winds northerly 20 to 30kt with gusts
up to 35kt.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  58  27  45 /  10  50  70  30
GCK  48  53  26  45 /  10  60  60  10
EHA  48  53  27  45 /  10  60  70  20
LBL  50  57  28  44 /  10  60  70  30
HYS  50  53  27  45 /  30  40  50  20
P28  58  69  32  45 /  20  60  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson






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