Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200828
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
328 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The weather pattern will be fairly similar to what we saw yesterday
with an intensifying mid to upper level ridge across the Southern
Rockies and a trough of low pressure across eastern Colorado at the
surface. A few differences will be a slight shift in the winds to
the south southwest and slightly warmer as mid level temperatures
increase. Skies will become mostly clear by this afternoon with
highs ranging form the lower 90s across south central Kansas to
around 100 degrees across west central Kansas. With dewpoints in the
60s across central and south central Kansas, it will feel very warm
with heat indices around 100 degrees. A few thunderstorms may
develop across the higher terrain of eastern Colorado in the late
afternoon, but will have a harder time to initiate due to the warmer
mid level temperatures. As of now these storms are not expected to
affect far western Kansas. Skies become partly cloudy overnight with
winds out of the south. Lows overnight are expected to be in the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014


Upper level high will strengthen as it slowly moves north across New
Mexico into southern Colorado through mid week. Models this morning to
various degrees continue to move weak several upper level
disturbances through this upper high early in the week with and
the GFS and ECMWF still suggested a more significant upper level
disturbance will move across the central Plains on Monday night.
Given that the models continue to agree on timing and track of
this Monday night upper wave will keep a mention of thunderstorms
going Monday night as the upper wave passes. As for precipitation
chances after Monday night will stay close to persistence for
thunderstorm chances from late Tuesday through Thursday given the
uncertainty on timing and track of the other subtle upper level
features crossing the Central Plains along with the warm mid level
temperatures. Will need to monitor the potential for improving
chances for thunderstorms near and north of the Interstate 70
corridor given a weak cold front is forecast to drop south into
portions of northern Kansas.

As the high strengthens mid week over the central and southern
Rockies an upper low will be deepening off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest mid week. As this upper low will move east
towards the Northern Rockies late week the upper level ridge axis which
will be located north of the Colorado upper high will weaken and
shift east. The upper high is expected to begin to move southwest
across the four corners region. As the upper ridge axis shifts
east and a westerly flow improves across the Rockies mid to late
week the 700mb temperatures are forecast by both the ECMWF and GFS
to warm from +14c to +16c at 00z Wednesday to +16c to near +18c at
00z Saturday. 850mb temperatures do indicated some cooling mid
week with the cold front but warm from the mid to upper 20s at 00z
Thursday to the low to mid 30s by 00z Saturday. Based on these
temperatures expected in the 850mb to 700mb layer will stay close
to the latest guidance for highs. Highs around 100 degrees still
look reasonable Monday and Tuesday followed by a brief cool down
mid week. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly in the mid
to upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions will prevail overnight into the daytime hours with
only a few high clouds present. Winds will generally be from the
south around 10 knots overnight shifting to the south southwest at
10 to 15 after sunrise. Winds increase to 15 to 20 knots by
late morning with higher gusts around 25 knots in the afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  73  99  72 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  99  73 100  71 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  98  72  98  70 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  99  73 100  71 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  97  74 100  72 /  10  10  10  20
P28  94  73  98  73 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





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