Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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170
FXUS63 KDDC 220824
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
224 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 129 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

A wintry mix of precipitation will continue in the forecast
through the day on Thursday. A shortwave will move out of New
Mexico into Oklahoma and southern Kansas by late morning to around
noon. Another area of light freezing rain and sleet is expected to
develop and I went more with the NAM solution that had the area of
precipitation a little further west. After looking at the present
track of the shortwave early this morning I think that is the
best solution at this point. With upslope flow due to east to
southeast winds the clouds should stay thick all day for most of
the area with the exception of areas near the Colorado border
which could have breaks of sun by the afternoon.

The shortwave will move out by Thursday night and an area of high
pressure will move in and quiet conditions are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Next longwave trough and area of low pressure will move out of the
Rockies into the Central Plains from Friday night into Saturday.
Both the Euro and GFS are suggesting a light wintry mix developing
in the forecast area sometime after midnight Friday going into
Saturday. Winds are expected to pick up on the backside of the low
by Saturday afternoon. The colder air should hang around until
Sunday and then the winds turn back to the south and southwest
Monday. Towards the end of the forecast period the upper level
winds will be in a southwest direction and a Pacific upper low
develops off the coast of California. If this pattern continues
with subsequent forecasts, there is the possibility this
particular system could bring some convection to the Central
Plains for the start of March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Mainly MVFR to at times IFR conditions for all TAF sites for much
of the time period. Surface winds should stay light with only a
brief increase to 10-15 kts during Thursday afternoon. Areas of
light freezing rain, sleet, or snow could be possible for mainly
DDC and HYS through 12Z then there will be a brief break in the
activity. Another wave out of New Mexico will then move into
southern Kansas and could provide another round of light sleet or
freezing rain near both DDC and HYS from 15-21Z. LLWS could then
develop near the end of the TAF period for DDC, LBL, and GCK with
winds at 30-40 kts at 2000 ft.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  23  46  31 /  20   0   0  30
GCK  37  19  46  27 /  10   0   0  30
EHA  46  24  55  29 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  39  22  50  31 /  10   0   0  20
HYS  31  22  41  27 /  20  10   0  60
P28  32  25  46  34 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ030-031-045-
046-064>066-077>081-087>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro



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