Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 191656
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1156 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014
...Updated for the aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014
Early morning showers and thunderstorms from near Liberal to Dodge
City and Saint John will gradually weaken as they drift
southeastward towards Pratt, Coldwater, and Medicine Lodge by 6 am
this morning. These storms set off from outflow from an MCS that
traveled across parts of north central Kansas.
Upper level ridging will build back into the Central Plains today
and tonight with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures. A trough
of low pressure will deepen in the lee of the Rockies today with
south winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. 850mb temps
are forecast to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday when many
areas hit around 100 degrees. Today`s highs look to be warm and
in the upper 90s. Tonight, south winds will still be in the 10 to
20 mph range with a mild night and lows around 70.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014
Upper level troughing will gradually deepen over the northwestern
United States through Saturday and then gradually progress across the
northern Rockies by Sunday and into the northern plains by Monday.
In addition, just south of this upper level system, a weaker upper
level trough will slowly progress eastward from off of the West
Coast into the southern Rockies. Southwestern Kansas will be in the
warm sector every day as weak surface troughing remains over
western Kansas. The northern edge of the southern plains hot plume
will be across northern Kansas. There may be enough low level
convergence in far western Kansas and along the Interstate 70
corridor for isolated thunderstorms just about every day. Due to
the deep mixing in the warm sector, surface based CAPE will be
very limited in the warm sector with cloud based very high.
Therefore, isolated wind gusts will be the main storm threat.
Temperatures will generally be from 96F to 101F each day, with
lows mainly from 70 along the Colorado border to the mid 70s in
The timing of the aforementioned upper level troughs and associated
cold front is still in question, with the ECMWF slower and GFS the
fastest. As the systems get closer and cold front arrives,
thunderstorm chances will increase sometime between Saturday night
and Sunday night and persist into Monday. Cooler temperatures can
be expected by either Sunday or Monday, with highs falling back
into the 80s or lower 90s.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014
There is a surface trough near the Colorado and Kansas border,
which will move very little today. A cold front will slip
southward into the I-70 corridor. Scattered, to at times broken,
high cirrus clouds will exist over the TAF sites through tonight.
South to southwest winds of 14g22kt will shift to the southeast
tonight an blow at 16g22kt early tonight, before dropping to
southeast at 10 to 11 knots after 03z tonight. There is a very
slight chance for convection this evening in the KHYS site, but I
have doubts the thunderstorms will move into the KHYS site.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 98 71 97 74 / 10 0 10 10
GCK 98 70 97 70 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 97 69 96 68 / 10 10 20 20
LBL 98 70 97 71 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 98 71 99 73 / 0 0 10 20
P28 98 74 98 76 / 10 0 10 10