Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 270700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD. A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP PRECIP
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
AROUND 10C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER TEENS(C) CLOSER TO THE
COLORADO BORDER. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF SOME DOWNSLOPING IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO
THE 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CIRRUS MAY
LINGER TO THE 60S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LOWS DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 20S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S(F) IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THERE ISN`T A WHOLE LOT THAT HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL THINKING
REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM (THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK) ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO
STILL BE ON TRACK FOR VERY MILD WEATHER. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE ECMWF REGARDING SATURDAY TEMPS, AND WE HAVE BOOSTED THE HIGHS
SATURDAY TO AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WEST AND SOUTH OF A GARDEN
CITY TO DODGE CITY TO GREENSBURG TO COLDWATER LINE. WITH THE BROAD
LEE TROUGH AXIS GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN KANSAS REGION BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
AWAITING, THOUGH, UP NORTH THIS WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT IS A BIG CHALLENGE, AS IT NOW APPEARS IT MAY HOLD OFF JUST
LONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE (AT LEAST HALF) DAY OF MILD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE OTHER SHOE FALLS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH LATE MORNING NOW (INSTEAD OF PRE-DAWN LIKE IT WAS THOUGHT
EARLIER), WITH THE ROBUST TEMPERATURE DROP LAGGING BEHIND AN HOUR OR
TWO, SUCH THAT WE WILL NOW LIKELY SEE OUR HIGHS AROUND NOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WHEN THE TEMPERATURE FALLS AFTERNOON SUNDAY, IT WILL BE
ABRUPT ON STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.  WE WILL PROBABLY SEE
TEMPERATURES FALL SOME 30 DEGREES OVER THE SPAN OF JUST 3 TO 5
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY WILL TRY TO
REFLECT A NON-DIURNAL CURVE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON.  MONDAY TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPED ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD, AND THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER MONDAY, SO INSOLATION
WILL HELP SOME, OTHERWISE WE WOULD CERTAINLY BE STUCK IN THE MID 20S
ALL DAY.  THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY NOT LAST, AS IT WILL BE
SHALLOW, THANKS TO CONTINUED STRONG CROSS-MOUNTAIN MOMENTUM HELPING
RE-ESTABLISH THE LEE TROUGH UP AND DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS. TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES MAY REBOUND BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50,
ALTHOUGH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME OF THIS (MODIFIED)
AIRMASS BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS MID-WEEK.  THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS THIS FAST, ZONAL PATTERN
DOES NOT FAVOR PRECIPITATION ON THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5
TO 15KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE UP TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  30  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  65  28  69  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  68  33  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  67  30  69  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  53  28  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  30  63  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.