Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 160602
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
102 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Precip chances will linger across western Kansas today as short
range models indicate the weak upper level low across eastern
Colorado lifting slowly northeast into Nebraska during the period.
Ample moisture will be reinforced by a southeasterly upslope flow
across western Kansas providing plenty of instability with CAPE
values in excess of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Although an extremely weak
flow aloft will prevail across the Western High Plains, showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be possible later today as low/mid
level lapse rates steepen under the advancing upper level disturbance.
However, the potential for severe weather is minimal at best with
model soundings showing weak shear present, not to mention the
weak flow aloft. The main threat will again be localized flooding
associated with the heaviest rainfall with PW values nearing 1.5
inches. Little change to the general air mass and increased cloud
cover will keep highs from climbing out of the mid to upper 80s(F)
across west central Kansas to highs still possibly reaching the
lower 90s(F) further south and east. Expect lows down into the
60s(F) to the lower 70s(F) tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

A few showers/isolated thunderstorms may linger across central and
eastern portions of southwest Kansas early Monday as an upper
level shortwave lifts further northeast across Nebraska into the
Upper Midwest. Otherwise, ridging aloft will dominate from the
South Plains northward into the high plains of western Kansas the
remainder of the week leading to much drier and hotter conditions
across the region. A warming trend will result in highs pushing
well back up into the 90s(F) for much of the week with a few
locations potentially reaching the century mark by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Sunday evening.
Light and variable winds overnight will become southeasterly 5 to 15kt
during the day Sunday as a broad surface high pushes further east across
the Ohio River Valley.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  91  68  94 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  65  88  66  95 /  40  30  20   0
EHA  61  90  65  95 /  50  30  30   0
LBL  67  92  67  96 /  40  30  20  10
HYS  66  93  68  95 /  10  10  10  10
P28  70  93  72  95 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



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