Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231100

National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015

...updated aviation...


A northwesterly flow across the Central Rockies will become more
westerly during the day. This improving westerly flow will result
in a developing trough of low pressure along the lee of the
Rockies and some warming in the 950mb to 850mb level. Based on the
weak net 24 hour warming trend in the 950mb to 850mb level along
with the mixing potential and 00z Tuesday temperatures at this
height the highs today are expected to 3-5F warmer than yesterday.

Tonight the surface winds will be a little stronger than the past
few nights. This combined with increasing low level moisture will
tend towards staying close to the latest MET/MAV guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)

Models remain in good agreement with an upper level storm system
moving from the coast of British Columbia into the western United
States during the first half of the work week. This will result in
the westerly flow across the Central Rockies early in the week
backing to the Southwest by early Wednesday. Subtle upper waves
embedded in this developing southwesterly flow still evident based
on 500mb to 400mb potential vorticity. One of which will be
crossing western Kansas on Wednesday and then a stronger wave on
Thursday. A cold front moving south across the Northern Plains on
Tuesday will extend from eastern Colorado into north central
Kansas by early Wednesday. Ahead of this surface boundary a
southerly flow will continue to draw more humid air northward into
central and portions of western Kansas. Early morning stratus and
fog appears possible south of this front based on model soundings.
At this time the depth of the low level moisture does not appear
deep enough to support drizzle but later shifts may wish to
reevaluate this. By Wednesday evening warm air advection will
begin to improve across western Kansas. Given this lift along
increasing moisture will keep the chance for rain showers and even
a few thunderstorms developing Wednesday night, especially east of
highway 283.

Chance for precipitation will continue on Thursday with the
precipitation type being mainly in the form of liquid early in the
the day as the cold front moves across southwest Kansas. During
the afternoon the colder air moving into western Kansas behind the
cold front will cool that atmosphere enough for the rain to change
over to snow from northwest to southeast. BUFR soundings even
suggest there may be a brief period of freezing rain or sleet
before the change over to snow. Given how far out this event is
will keep precipitation type simple at this time.

On Thursday night the ongoing precipitation will continue early
and then begin to taper off from north to south as a 700mb
baroclinic zone moves across western Kansas. At this time it
appears that the prevailing precipitation type will be snow with
the possible exception of portions of south central Kansas. Upper
level jet dynamics shift north and northeast early and isentropic
downglide observed in the I285 to I295 level by 06z Friday.
Frontogenesis also not that strong near the 700mb baroclinic zone.
The better moisture and lift appears to be focused above the 700mb
level so can not rule out some light snow but accumulations should
be light. Possible exception will be near the OK border,
especially in far southwest Kansas, where up to an inch may not be
completely out of the question.

On Friday any lingering light snow will end, however Friday still
appears to be cloudy and cold as a surface ridge axis begins to
build into western Kansas. Based on 950mb and 850mb temperatures
at 18z Friday and 00z Saturday the previous forecast with highs
only in the 30s still look on track.

On Friday night and Saturday moisture and isentropic lift begins
to improve across western Kansas in the i285 to i300 levels as the
cold dome of high pressure begins to build into western Kansas and
the next upper level wave begins to approach the area from the
southwest. Over parts of western Kansas a southeast upslope flow
is also evident west of the surface ridge axis. Given moisture
return and lift late Friday night into Saturday there will be
improving chances for snow across all of western Kansas early this
weekend. This chance for precipitation will continue through early
Sunday. Some snow accumulations will be possible from this weekend
event, however at how much snow and where is still unclear.



VFR conditions expected through TAF period. S/SW 5-15 kt winds.


DDC  64  34  60  38 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  64  28  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  66  31  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  64  32  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  62  33  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
P28  64  35  61  47 /   0   0   0   0


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
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