Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 040333
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
933 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

WV Imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure
transitioning eastward across the Central Plains. Meanwhile,
a secondary upper level shortwave is pushing ashore into the
Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, a broad area of high
pressure extends from the Colorado Rockies eastward into the
Western High Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Quiet weather has returned to Kansas. Weak shortwave passes
through this afternoon and early evening with a period of broken
mid layer clouds. A clearing sky tonight will lead to strong
radiational cooling through Thursday morning, with low
temperatures well below normal. Expecting teens at sunrise, with
single digits on the snowpack across the northern zones. Downslope
W/SW breezes of 5-10 mph will keep temperatures from falling to
their full potential, but they will also create bitter wind chill
indices in the -5 to -10 degree range in snow-covered areas. Wind
chills will hold in the positive single digits over the southern
zones Thursday morning.

Thursday...sunny and warmer. Migratory high pressure ridge builds
into Kansas, with the ridge axis near the KS/CO border by 6 pm.
This results in few clouds with only a few cirrus by late
afternoon. Heights and thicknesses rise sharply Thursday, allowing
high temperatures to moderate closer to normal. Expect max temps
to flirt with 50 degrees across the far SE zones /from Englewood
to Kiowa/ with a high near 43 at Dodge City. Meanwhile, melting
snow will hold temperatures down across the northern zones, with
Scott/Lane/Trego counties struggling to get to the freezing mark.
Return flow ahead of the next approaching shortwave will allow
SW winds to return around noon, averaging 10-20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Dry forecast continues through the entire long term forecast.

Vigorous shortwave dives SE through SW KS on Friday. Dynamic lift
from this system is progged to be quite strong, but a moisture
supply will be sorely lacking. Sprinkles or virga are certainly
possible during this time, but the odds of measurable
precipitation is very low, and kept pop grids less than 15%.
Increasing clouds Thursday night, and clouds will prevail on
Friday as this shortwave passes. Temperatures cool several degrees
on Friday compared to Thursday`s readings, with a gusty NW breeze
Friday afternoon.

Sky clears Friday night, as progressive shortwave ridge spreads
over Kansas. Saturday promises to be a pleasant day, with
moderating temperatures, few clouds, and light winds under the
ridge axis. Saturday expected to be the pick day of the weekend.

Sunday...Arctic airmass invades the northern plains, with a
portion of this colder airmass invading SW KS. 12z ECMWF has
backed off considerably regarding the magnitude of the cold air
coming into SW KS, while 12z GFS remains substantially colder.
CR extended init has max temps near normal, and followed this for
now. Strong dry NW flow will ensure SW KS, and all areas nearby,
will remain dry.

Monday...Highly meridional PNA pattern unfolds, with ECMWF placing
a very strong 584 dm high pressure ridge over the Great Basin, and
a strong cold 520 dm upper low over Lake Michigan by 6 pm Monday.
A dry forecast is ensured for SW KS in this pattern, with the
resulting NW flow offering no hope of moisture return. 12z ECMWF
slowly deamplifies the longwave pattern over North America Tuesday
and Wednesday next week, but the dry forecast and quiet weather
will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Winds will
decrease to 10 knots or less this evening but look for winds to
increase by late Thursday morning. Winds will be southwesterly
winds gusts to around 20-25 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  15  43  21  40 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  10  37  16  37 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  18  44  22  42 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  15  46  21  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  11  35  16  36 /   0   0  10  10
P28  18  48  25  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Gerard


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