Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221937
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
237 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Thunderstorm chances continue tonight as short range models indicate
a southwest flow aloft becoming more difluent across the Western
High Plains during the period. Although the intensity of the flow
aloft will remain fairly weak, favorable factors in the lower
levels will develop as significant moisture return pushes surface
dewpoints well up into the mid and upper 60s(F) across central and
much of southwest Kansas ahead of a sharpening dryline near and
along the Colorado border. This will set the stage for a substantial
increase in instability late this afternoon as an eroding stratus
deck gives way to increased heating in the lower/mid levels and
subsequent steepening lapse rates. NAM and GFS model soundings
show SBCAPE values well in excess of 2500 J/KG toward early this
evening as capping weakens across southwest Kansas. As a result,
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
dryline this evening. Although vertical shear profiles are less
than favorable, enough 0-6km shear exists to support strong to
severe thunderstorms. Considering the dynamic set up aloft, any
storms that develop are expected to drift slowly east-northeast
across west central and southwest Kansas this evening and
potentially spreading into central and south central Kansas
through early Monday morning.

Fairly mild temperatures are likely tonight considering a
prevailing south to southeasterly flow combined with surface
dewpoints remaining in the lower to mid 60s(F). Lows in the mid to
upper 60s(F) can be expected across south central and portions of
southwest Kansas with a few upper 50s(F) possible in west central
Kansas as a weak pacific cold front begins to push into western
Kansas early Monday morning. The southerly flow across central
Kansas will persist Monday as the aforementioned frontal boundary
stalls out across western Kansas, resulting in little change to
the general air mass across the region. Highs are expected to
reach into the 80s(F) Monday afternoon. The warmer high
temperatures are expected to continue through mid week as the
stalled frontal boundary is projected to lift back to the north,
leaving a southerly flow in place across the high plains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Another round of thunderstorms will be possible late Monday into
early Tuesday as medium range models indicate a series of H5 vort
maxima lifting northeast across the high plains of eastern
Colorado and western Kansas within an increasingly difluent flow.
Meanwhile, a weak pacific cold front pushing into extreme western
Kansas early Monday is projected to stall out later in the day
across southwest and central Kansas while a developing surface
low becomes more organized across southeast Colorado. Although the
intensity of the flow aloft is not expected to improve much, ample
moisture/instability in conjunction with increased forcing in the
vicinity of the frontal boundary will support thunderstorm
development across central and portions of southwest Kansas Monday
evening. GFS/ECMWF model soundings show substantial instability
along with favorable vertical shear profiles. This will increase
severe potential with large hail and damaging winds the primary
threats. A heightened threat for tornadoes will exist as well.
Another round of thunderstorms may be possible Tuesday with little
change expected to the overall synoptic pattern. However, precip
chances decrease Wednesday as drier air moves into southwest
Kansas behind an advancing dryline.

A prevailing south to southwest flow across western Kansas will
enhance warm air advection into western Kansas Tuesday and
Wednesday raising H85 temperatures well above 20C across southwest
and central Kansas. Widespread 80s(F) can be expected for highs
both days with 90F a distinct possibility in some locations. Slightly
cooler temperatures are likely toward the end of the week as
another cold front is expected to move through western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

MVFR cigs will give way to VFR conditions in the vicinity of all TAF
sites late this afternoon as a low stratus deck slowly lifts and
scatters out. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening,
potentially affecting all TAF sites with brief MVFR/IFR conditions.
Otherwise, high relative humidity combined with a south to
southeasterly upslope flow will create conditions conducive to
stratus redevelopment later tonight. IFR cigs will be possible at
all TAF sites generally after 06Z. Gusty south winds will persist
through late this evening as a strong lee side trough of low
pressure remains anchored across extreme eastern Colorado. Winds
are then expected to subside somewhat late tonight into early
Monday morning as a weak cold front begins to push into extreme
western Kansas. Light north winds can be expected behind the front
in west central Kansas through mid to late Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  63  84  60 /  20  40  20  30
GCK  83  60  84  55 /  30  40  20  20
EHA  83  57  85  52 /  30  30  10  10
LBL  82  62  87  56 /  20  40  20  10
HYS  82  62  81  61 /  20  40  30  30
P28  81  65  82  65 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



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