Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 221512
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1012 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High fire danger is expected western zones Sunday afternoon,
  with a fire weather watch in effect.

- Intense south winds are expected western zones Saturday and
  all zones Sunday, with gusts as high as 60 mph.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible east of US 283 Sunday
  afternoon.

- Windy and dramatically colder Monday, with light snow
  and blowing snow possible.

- A hard freeze is expected Tuesday morning, with damage to
  early vegetation expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Earlier this Friday morning a cold front extended from
northeast Colorado into central Nebraska with gusty north winds
and temperatures in the 30s being reported behind this surface
boundary. Short term models are in good agreement this morning
with this cold front crossing southwest Kansas between 09z and 15z
today which will result in gusty north winds early this Friday
morning along with cooler air returning to southwest Kansas. Given
the mean 850mb wind speeds forecast behind this cold front will
be favoring at least the 75th percentile on wind speeds today
which will yield gusty north winds at 20 to 30 mph. Isolated gusts
around 40 possible (30-60%). Guidance on high temperatures have
frequently been too cool but with the current temperatures behind
this front and cold air advection from the north winds will favor
staying close to or a few degrees below guidance for highs today.

Prior to the cold frontal passage early this Friday morning
across south central Kansas a southeast wind at 10 mph or less
and dew points in the mid 40s to near 50 will result in patchy fog
early this morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Short
range ensembles appear to be picking up on this with fog and
stratus developing towards daybreak south and east of Dodge City.
Chance for fog to reduce visibilities to less than 1 mile this
Friday morning is 50-70%. Gave Medicine Lodge a call at 245am and
they are already down to 1/4 mile so based on this and the
location of the cold front (near Scott county) will lean towards
issuing a Dense Fog Advisory for several counties of south central
Kansas given that it will be several hours before the cold front
finally passes this location.

On Saturday gusty south winds will develop as surface pressures
fall across eastern Colorado. 850mb temperatures will start to
warm and a westerly downslope flow will improve. This will be
the beginning of the weekend warmup with temperatures rebounding
back into the 60s on Saturday and well into the 70s on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Ensemble Clusters over the weekend continue to have run to run
consistency with our next major upper level trough crossing the
southwest United States over the weekend and a 500mb jet
ejecting from the base of this trough over New Mexico into the
Panhandle of Texas on Sunday. This upper trough will then cross
the Central Plains on Monday.

For Saturday night and Sunday...As this upper trough approaches
a surface trough will deepen across eastern Colorado as strong
850mb winds (mean 850mb winds currently are forecast by all the
ensembles at 45-50knots) to develop across western Kansas and
mainly east of a dryline that will be located somewhere across
southwest Kansas late day. West of this dry line dry gusty
southwest winds can be expected which will result in critical fire
weather conditions. Based on the deep mixing potential from the
gusty southwest winds west of this dryline the models frequently
underestimate the wind speeds and temperatures along with being
too high with afternoon humidity. As a result, the current
forecast may end up being high on minimum afternoon humidity
values west of the dryline which currently is estimated to be
located near or east of Highway 283. Would not be surprised to end
up on Sunday having humidity values as low as 10% in some areas
west of highway 283.

In addition to the fire weather concerns on Sunday the strong
gusty winds could result in near high wind warning criteria for
some locations east of Highway 283. This is currently where all
the ensembles have the stronger (50 knot) 850mb winds. Confidence
of these strong winds occurring remains high (70%) given that
this area is also the location where the ECMWF Extreme Forecast
Index is greater than 0.8 and also has greater than 0 shift of
tail. This signal has been there for over 3 days. Even with
afternoon humidity values being higher in this area this area will
also be an area of dangerous fire weather conditions given these
strong gusty winds. NBM appears to be playing catchup on these
strong winds given now there is a 40-60% chance for wind gusts >50
mph east of a Hays to Greensburg to Coldwater line. This is up
from just 20% chance yesterday.

Finally in addition to all this we will be monitoring the
chance for severe thunderstorms late in the day along the
dryline as the nose/left exit region of 500mb jet approaches
western Kansas. Latest ensembles now show moisture return from
the strong south winds along with better instability and shear
being present at 00z Monday across southwest and south central
Kansas compared to yesterday. Chance of CAPES >500j/kg and shear
>40knots now 30% while yesterday it was only 10%. Given that
the environment is appearing to be more favorable for the chance
for severe thunderstorms late Sunday would not be surprised to
see SPC eventually increasing the risk for the chance for severe
thunderstorms across southwest/south central Kansas.

As the thunderstorms move east early Sunday night the focus
will shift from severe weather to winter weather. A strong cold
front will cross southwest Kansas Sunday night into early
Monday. The mean 850mb temperature trends following this cold
frontal passage remains very similar to yesterdays run with
850mb temperatures in the teens at 00z Monday falling to zero to
-5C at 18z Monday as 40 mph wind gusts develop. This sharp
change in temperatures will result in temperatures going from
the 70s Sunday afternoon to lows Monday morning below 32
degrees. West and north of Dodge City there is a 70-90% chance
for lows to be in the 20s with wind chills as low as the single
digits.

These gusty winds will decrease through Tuesday morning but
given the magnitude of the cold air settling into southwest
Kansas early next week it looks like wind chills once again
Tuesday morning will range from 5 to 15 degrees. Lows Tuesday
morning will range from 15 to 25 degrees.

The return of cold temperatures will not be the only winter
related weather following this cold frontal passage. There will
also be a chance for some accumulating snow across western
Kansas on Monday as the atmosphere cools. Confidence on snow
totals is still low that far out but confidence remains medium
to high on the location of where the better chances for any
accumulation of snow will occur. This is based on the ongoing
(run to run consistency) agreement in keeping the better forcing
on Monday across west central and north central Kansas as the
upper level trough passes. The 24hour snowfall totals >1” is now
higher (50-60) in this location compared to yesterday. This is
an area that will need to be monitored for potential winter
travel hazards given the gusty winds that will accompany some of
this snow late Sunday night/early Monday. Reduced visibilities
due to blowing snow could be an issue which later shifts will be
monitoring.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1012 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF period, with increasing
midlevel clouds expected Saturday morning. Strong north winds
gusting to near 35 kts at 15z will continue through about 21z,
then weaken somewhat and trend NEly. Northeast winds will
diminish further after sunset, and trend light easterly
overnight. After 15z Sat, SE winds will increase at all
airports, strongest at LBL/GCK, in response to surface low
pressure deepening in eastern Colorado.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Confidence is improving for critical fire weather conditions
Sunday. Ensembles and deterministic models along with run to run
consistency between the models have routinely moved a dryline
east into southwest Kansas during the day on Sunday. West of
this dryline gusty southwest winds will develop and given the
deep mixing potential this synoptic setup typically results in
lower humidity values than forecast by guidance. Keeping this
bias in mind the current forecast west of a Scott City to Meade
line already has minimum afternoon humidity values in the teens
and wind speeds of 20 to 30 mph. As a result confidence is high
(>70%) that humidity values will be lower and given the current
forecast wind speed then critical fire weather conditions are
appearing more and more likely. Will therefore go ahead an issue
a fire weather watch for this area (west of a Scott City to
Meade line) for Sunday. Keep in mind the exact location of the
dryline may change so there may/will be minor adjustment to the
area. Also a cold front forecast to move across western Kansas
Sunday may also limit how far north this fire weather risk may
end up being.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for KSZ043-061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert


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