Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190528
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1228 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

A dry period will continue through Thursday night as a southwest
flow aloft slowly develops across the Western High Plains downstream
of an advancing trough axis in the Desert Southwest. Although this
will create a gradual increasingly difluent flow aloft across the
high plains, it will remain generally weak. This and a lack of
low/mid level moisture/instability will hinder any precip chances
through Thursday night. High temperatures will back off a bit
today as a stalled frontal boundary across the region this morning
is slow to lift back to the north, keeping H85 temperatures from
climbing much above 20C across central and southwest Kansas
through the day. Should see highs pushing back up near 80F later
this afternoon. Expect lows down into the lower to mid 50s(F)
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Southwest Kansas will have a windy end to the week as the lee
troughing continues to deepen in Colorado. Friday will be the
windiest day/evening. Have collaborated with neighboring offices
to increase the wind, with forecasted gusts up to 35 to 40 mph
Friday afternoon. H85 moisture from the Gulf will start to flow
into our eastern zones in the afternoon and with mixing, surface
dewpoints will increase. The GFS and ECMWF hint at a shower or two
Friday afternoon/evening near Medicine Lodge. Even with limited
instability, they can`t be ruled out. Have left what the model
blend provided. Temperatures Friday will reach the upper 80s.

On Saturday, a high amplitude trough axis will reach western
Kansas. This will aid in pushing the low in Colorado, and
attendant cold front, through the region. Sufficient instability
and moisture will remain in our eastern zones, and there is a
potential for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Barber and Pratt
counties look to receive the majority of rain, and this is only if
the cold front meets instability and moisture in that area. Storms
could form further east as Central and Eastern Kansas will be the
main target of this system for this region. Wind dies down late
Saturday evening after frontal passage. The high for Saturday
will reach the mid 60s to mid 70s. Saturday night, the low will
vary from mid- 30s to mid-40s.

On Sunday, upper level ridging sets in, and aside from a dry/weak,
cold front on Monday night, surface high pressure will dominate
the long term with temperatures near normal for October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Thursday
evening. Light and variable winds will persist across western Kansas
through mid to late Thursday morning as a weak cold front stalls out
across the area. Winds will turn southeasterly 10 to 20kt mid to
late Thursday afternoon as surface high pressure moves eastward
across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  79  56  80 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  42  80  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  44  78  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  44  80  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  82  57  77 /   0   0   0  10
P28  49  80  57  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Reynolds
AVIATION...JJohnson



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