Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 090912
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

The western ridge/eastern trough pattern will continue through today
and tonight. A deep tropospheric baroclinic zone will remain
quasistationary across the central CONUS. This will result in a
temperature gradient at the surface as well. Lower tropospheric flow
will be from the north-northwest, including at the surface, as far
west as roughly the US-283 corridor, which will prevent any
downslope influence. Temperatures today across central and portions
of west central KS will struggle to escape the 30s, particularly
around Hays. Conversely, extreme southwest Kansas (i.e. Elkhart)
will see temperatures warm very nicely through the 50s, topping out
around 61 or 62 for a high today with lower tropospheric momentum
attaining much more downslope component from Colorado. A band of 6-
10 kft cloud (along the aforementioned deep mid level baroclinic
zone) will likely move into the Hays area later today, which could
also affect any warm-up. This cloud band will shift east this
evening/tonight leaving clear sky in its wake. Low level flow will
become even more downslope component tonight, and even a 7 to 10 mph
west wind would probably be enough to prevent a massive drop in
temperatures tonight. Look for lows around or slightly above the
seasonal average tonight (mid 20s for most).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Temperatures will be quite the challenge through much of this
forecast period...starting with Wednesday. A classic downslope
warming setup is forecast Wednesday as another subtle jet streak
ripples through the larger scale northwest flow pattern. This will
foster weak surface low development across the Dakotas early
Wednesday, with a bump in the downslope westerly component to the
southwest of the track of this weak surface low. The low will be
positioned somewhere across central/eastern Nebraska by Wednesday
afternoon with west-northwesterly lower tropospheric flow off the
Colorado/Wyoming high terrain. A warmer ECMWF/WRF-ARW solution is
favored Wednesday, which both support highs well into the mid/upper
60s across western Kansas and some lower 70s along the Oklahoma
border. Since pretty much all of the snow cover is gone across our
northern forecast area (per visible satellite late yesterday
afternoon), lower 60s should occur even up in the I-70 corridor
areas from Wakeeney to Hays.

Once this jet streak passes Wednesday Night, we will see some near-
surface cold advection with winds shifting to the northeast during
the night. While it won`t be much, it will be enough to bring
Thursday temperatures down some 15 degrees over Wednesday`s temps
for most locations. The exception would be far southwest Kansas
where some lower 60s will probably still occur for highs. Yet
another weak surface low will develop across the Black Hills region
Thursday Night into early Friday, with the timing earlier in the day
than Wednesday`s low. We should see downslope westerly winds through
early Friday before cold advection from the north hits around
midday. Friday temperatures should improve 3 to 6 degrees over
Thursday. A strong surface high will push south out of Canada late
Friday with surface winds becoming northeasterly late in the day.
This should set the stage for a much cooler Saturday with highs
likely only in the upper 30s to lower 40s for most of west central
and southwest KS. The exception, again, will be far southwest KS
(Elkhart especially) where Saturday afternoon temps will probably
still reach the lower to mid 50s.

The significant, persistent upper level ridging out west will
finally break down over the weekend with a formidable storm system
digging into the Rockies. The latest ECMWF shows a storm system
moving into western Kansas by Sunday, however the trajectory of this
storm would not favor precipitation across southwest Kansas as it
appears now. This storm would need to dig southeast sooner and be a
bit more amplified, tracking just south of us, for us to see any
precipitation. This does not appear likely right now, so the
forecast will remain dry through the end of the weekend. This is
subject to change, however, and some low POPs may need to be
introduced if this storm system does indeed dig sooner and more to
the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

As we remain in a dry northwest flow regime, weather conditions will
continue to be favorable for general aviation. VFR flight category
will continue through Tuesday Night, although some clouds will
promote a high ceiling up at HYS later today and this evening, but
any ceiling should be well above MVFR. Prevailing wind direction
will remain unchanged from the northwest with speeds 10 to 15 knots
in the early morning and evenings with daytime wind speeds 15 to 20
knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  28  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  56  26  69  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  62  32  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  27  72  31 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  25  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
P28  51  26  69  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid


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