Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190007
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
707 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TONIGHT:

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A MINOR WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO, WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS FEATURE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE ARE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. MINIMUMS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S.

TOMORROW:

THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY, WE WILL HAVE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE. MAXIMUMS TOMORROW
WILL BE IN THE 70S AND WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL SHOW A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BECOMES LESS
DEFINED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY LONG
WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST AND MOVES ONSHORE IN THE WEST. THE
MODELS MOVE THIS WAVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES, RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVING IT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS SHOW DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.25
INCH ALONG WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS
WAVE. THE SCATTERED POPS THAT THE CR_EXTENDED INIT IS PRODUCING LOOK
VERY REASONABLE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN UNDERGOING AN ANTICYCLONIC
WAVE BREAK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS RAPIDLY FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE WAVE CLOSES OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW AS IT DROPS INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. THE
CANADIAN MODEL ALSO SHOWS A WAVE BREAK PATTERN BUT HAS IT MUCH
FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...DROPPING INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO.
ENSEMBLES FROM THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE NOT IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE WAVE BREAK IDEA SO SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. AT ANY RATE, WE
SHOULD SEE A FEW DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
WARMER WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE KANSAS-COLORADO
BORDER DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT AT 8-10 KTS, THEN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 12-15 KTS BY 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, WITH
ONLY SOME CLOUD AOA100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  77  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  47  77  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  48  78  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  48  78  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  45  74  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  76  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH


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