Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010851
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
351 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AND TUESDAY, AND VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. H7 TEMPERATURES IN
EXCESS OF 10C SHOULD COVER ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS BY 18Z TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN ARKANSAS
WILL PROGRESS INTO TENNESSEE BY THIS EVENING AND SUBSEQUENTLY WILL
WALLOW VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
SHARP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR MAINTENANCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS THROUGH MID WEEK, RESULTING IN
VERY LITTLE FLOW FROM THE GULF TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
EVEN SO, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF EVAPORATION FROM THE EXTREMELY WET GROUND AND
WIDESPREAD STANDING WATER IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
THE GFS, AND THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE GFS SOLUTION SEEM
MORE REASONABLE.

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING AND PROPAGATED INTO NEW MEXICO
AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY MORNING, BUT CLOUD TOPS BEGAN
WARMING AFTER 06Z. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
NEBRASKA APPEARED TO BE ENHANCING ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE SHARP
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AND
WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO FORM
IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AFTER 07Z. THE SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID MORNING AS
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO BACK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND REDUCE ISENTROPIC LIFTING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IN
MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO RECIRCULATE RELATIVELY COOL AIR FROM THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE AND SLOW THE WARMING TREND. THE COOL LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE MID LEVEL WARM PLUME WILL RESULT IN
ENOUGH CIN TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN MOST OF WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY, ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THEN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY THAN
SUNDAY, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN KANSAS IS MARGINAL
AT BEST.

GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW RESULT
IN SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN FOG,
BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT DENSE FOG FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD AS A CONSEQUENCE OF SUFFICIENT WIND TO SUPPORT MIXING AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATED THAT THE 700MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 12C TO NEAR 15C. UNDERNEATH THIS WARM LAYER A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MORNING STATUS IS FORECAST TO ERODE BY MID DAY BUT HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BY LATE DAY IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. AT THIS
TIME BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, CLOUD COVER, AND A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL UNDERCUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND FAVOR
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES AND CROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES IT APPEARS THAT IF ANY LATE DAY/EVENING
CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THEN IT WILL BE ISOLATED AND BE MAINLY
CONFINED ALONG THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE WARM LAYER AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE, HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST GFS, AND NAM THIS
LOCATION WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY AND BASED ON THE THE GFS
AND NAM A MIXING DEPTH NEAR THE 800MB LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED
ON THESE 800MB TEMPERATURES THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR HIGHS TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 90 FOR MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST YET GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS. NORTH OF THIS FRONT A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE ROCKIES
AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE DAY SHOULD MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERNIGHT WHICH
WOULD FAVOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WILL THEREFORE INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN/NEAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THESE BOUNDARIES LATE
WEEK...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL IMPROVE ACROSS ALL
WESTERN KANSAS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY LATE WEEK
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BUT IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY 08Z. HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUDINESS WITH BASES AOA 200 WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BASES NEAR 080 SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM NEAR HYS TO EAST
OF DDC AND GRADUALLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE DISSIPATING
AROUND 15Z. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
IN EASTERN COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TO MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AROUND 01Z. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH GCK
AROUND 04Z...DDC AFTER 05Z AND HYS BY 07Z. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS 030-040 WILL MOVE INTO DDC AND HYS AFTER 21Z AS PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW CARRIES INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
INTO KANSAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 23KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE PAWNEE RIVER NEAR ROZEL CRESTED AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAS BEGUN
TO FALL. THERE WILL BE RISES ON THE PAWNEE RIVER NEAR LARNED AS
THE CREST PROPAGATES DOWNSTREAM, BUT STAGES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ACTION THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  61  84  64 /   0  20  10  10
GCK  81  61  86  65 /   0  20  10  10
EHA  86  60  90  61 /  10  30  10  10
LBL  83  62  87  61 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  77  59  83  63 /  10  20  10  10
P28  78  61  84  66 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUTHI
HYDROLOGY...RUTHI



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