Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 252143
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
443 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Models this morning were in good agreement with temperatures in
the 850mb to 700mb level warming through mid week as an upper
level ridge axis shifts east out of the Rockies and into the
Central Plains. By Wednesday night this upper level ridge axis
will begin to weaken as an upper level trough moves east cross the
central Rockies. As this upper level disturbance approaches from
the west tonight and Wednesday a trough of low pressure will
deepen along the lee of the Rockies. This will result in
increasing southerly winds and draw more humid air back into
portions of western Kansas.

For tonight will continue to favor lows in the 60s given the
expected southerly winds and increasing surface dew points. On
Wednesday will use the 00z Thursday temperatures at the forecast
mixing depth from the NAM and GFS as a guide for highs. This
supports afternoon temperatures mainly in the mid 90s despite some
increasing mid and high level moisture from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

On Wednesday night a surface trough of low pressure will move
into western Kansas as an upper level disturbance begins to cross
the Central High Plains. At this time given the warm mid level
temperatures over western Kansas Wednesday night the chance for
storms along this surface boundary still appears small. On
Thursday the chance for precipitation will improve as mid levels
cool ahead of another upper level disturbance and a surface cold
front moves south into southwest Kansas. Based on timing of the
cold front and an upper wave crossing western Kansas the previous
forecast trend with precipitation chances improving during the
day. The better chances being late Thursday into Thursday night
still looks on track. Temperatures will be a little tricky given
expected cloud cover,timing of precipitation and cold front. At
this time will stay close to the warmer guidance ahead of the cold
front while trim temperatures back northwest of this surface
boundary.

Cooler temperatures will then return to western Kansas on Friday
as an area of high pressure at the surface crosses the central
Plains. A gradually warming trend can then be expected over the
weekend period into early next week as an upper level ridge axis
builds along the Rockies and westerly down slope flow improves.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 437 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected tonight into Wednesday. Light upslope
southeasterly winds around 5-8kt will become southerly 10-14kt
after 12-14Z. There could be some light ground fog towards dawn,
but current indications are not enough confidence to add to tafs
attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  40
GCK  65  96  70  91 /   0  10  10  30
EHA  66  96  69  92 /   0  10  10  30
LBL  67  97  70  94 /  10  10  10  40
HYS  62  95  70  92 /  10  10  10  40
P28  64  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Kruse



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