Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 031730
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Updated Aviation and Short Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

The shortwave trough that passed south this morning will continue to
push away from the region. Some stratocumulus clouds developed with
surface dewpoints in the upper 30s to lower 40s, some insolation,
and cold temperatures aloft (500mb temps -20 to -22C). The surface
trough axis tied to the upper level feature extended from near
Russel, KS to just south of Dodge City at 17z. This will continue
to push southeast, and by late afternoon some widely scattered
showers will likely develop ahead of it, but by the time they become
somewhat prevalent, they will be off into northern Oklahoma. Out
west, wind speeds will range 14 to 18 knots this afternoon before
taming back down to 8 to 11 knots after sunset. On Wednesday, the
opposite will be the case, with strongest north winds across the
eastern forecast area (east of Hwy 283), with midday to afternoon
winds 12 to 15 knots. 850mb temperatures will warm about 4 degrees
Celsius tomorrow, which will support surface temperatures in the
afternoon generally in the lower to mid 70s (with some upper 70s
farther south closer to the Oklahoma border).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Wednesday through Friday...Warm and dry afternoons for SW KS,
with max temperatures climbing each day. Amplified high pressure
ridge will establish over the Rocky Mountains Wednesday, and drift
very slowly eastward on Thursday, with the ridge axis ending up
over central Kansas Friday afternoon. Thicknesses and 850 mb
temperatures peak on Friday, and model guidance has been
consistent on Friday being the warmest day of the forecast period.
Mid 80s will be common Friday afternoon. Lack of a good SW
downslope component should prevent most locales from approaching
90. Morning low temperatures will also climb on a daily basis, as
mixing and boundary layer moisture progressively improve. Model
consensus keeps SW KS dry through Friday night, and followed suit
with a dry forecast in the grids.

Saturday and Sunday...Convective potential will certainly increase
over the weekend. 00z ECMWF places a broad closed low over the
Great Basin at 7 pm Sat, with leading jet energy igniting the high
plains dryline from western Nebraska, through western Kansas, to
the Texas Big Bend. With SW flow aloft, shear should be sufficient
for organized/severe storms Saturday afternoon. 00z GFS places a
sharpening dryline across the western CWA Saturday afternoon, with
surface dewpoints in the mid 50s east of Dodge City. This level of
moisture is below par for May standards, but will certainly
support afternoon/evening storms near the dryline Saturday
afternoon. With quality moisture lacking, downburst winds and
marginal hail would be the primary concern.

Sunday...00z ECMWF ejects upper low to near Cheyenne by 7 pm, and
continues to suggest a higher end severe threat developing over
primarily central Kansas Sunday afternoon. ECMWF has shown
continuity with convective coverage favoring the eastern zones
Sunday afternoon/evening, where GFS brings surface dewpoints into
the lower 60s. With ECMWF progging surface cyclogenesis in Baca
county, Colorado, will need to monitor for a further westward
solution to the dryline location. For now, highest pops for
showers and thunderstorms favor the eastern 2/3 of the CWA for
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Aviation weather will continue to be good through the forecast
period. Clear skies will prevail in the northerly, dry flow pattern.
Winds will remain from the north through the period, averaging 10 to
15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  43  76  47 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  67  40  77  47 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  68  41  77  46 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  69  41  78  47 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  69  44  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
P28  73  46  78  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid



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