Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 130731

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
131 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Colder air continues to settle into western Kansas as the center
of a strong surface high pressure area moves south out of the
northern Plains. With this cold air in place, we should see
temperatures falling into the mid teens to around 20 overnight.
With high clouds expected to persist overnight, do not think we
will be quite as cold as MOS guidance suggests. We should see low
cloudiness developing along and north of the Oklahoma border as low
level moisture over the southern Plains advects north out of the
southern Plains.

On Friday, low level moisture continues to spread north into western
Kansas which will keep temperatures from warming much during the
day with highs expected to be mainly in the mid to upper 20s. Some
low 30s are possible along the Colorado border. There is a small
possibility for some patchy freezing drizzle to develop over south
central Kansas during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 343 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Precipitation chances begin to ramp up Friday night and Saturday. The
atmosphere continues to moisten and upward vertical motion increases
as upper flow becomes increasingly difluent ahead of the strong upper
low that will be moving through far northwest Mexico.

We are looking at an extended period of freezing rain continuing through
the weekend with all of central and southwest Kansas being impacted.
Ice accumulations of a half inch to possibly over an inch with the greatest
accumulations expected toward central and south central Kansas. With
confidence increasing in a significant ice event, we will go ahead and
issue an Ice Storm Warning on this shift which will be in better line
with our eastern and southern neighbors.

The upper low is expected to lift out across the central High Plains
Sunday night into Monday. The probability for snow will be increasing
over our western counties. At this time we are expecting around
2-3 inches over our far western and northwest counties. Precipitation
will be diminishing or ending on Monday as the upper system exits
the central Plains.

The rest of the extended period will see a drying trend as shortwave
ridging builds over the region. Temperatures should rise above freezing
but will stay on the cool side given the ice and snow accumulations.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 126 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Surface winds will maintain a light and variable to light and
east-northeast prevailing direction this TAF period. More
imporatantly will be MVFR cielings overspreading the area on
Friday, rapidly from south to north beginning in the morning
hours. Hazardous freezing precipitation does not appear likely
until time beyond 00 Saturday. However, beyond 00 UTC Saturday,
impacts from freezing rain will continue on and off into late
Sunday evening at least.


DDC  27  22  30  27 /  10  30  60  80
GCK  28  22  33  26 /  10  10  40  70
EHA  34  26  35  28 /  10  20  50  70
LBL  29  25  33  28 /  10  30  60  80
HYS  24  20  30  25 /   0  10  40  60
P28  28  25  31  29 /  20  50  80  80


Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-



LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.