Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 150510
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

WV imagery indicates a broad upper level ridge of high pressure
located across the Intermountain West and the Western High Plains.
Near the surface, high pressure is shifting eastward across the
Central Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Very moist atmosphere across SW KS as of midday, with dewpoints
running well into the 60s to near 70, and precipitable water over
1.5 inch. 12z NAM maintains 65-70 dewpoints into this evening, and
increases PW further to near 1.9 inch. Very weak pressure gradient
this afternoon as a weak frontal boundary continues to meander
across the region. Instability will continue to mount through the
afternoon, with NAM increasing CAPE to near 2000 J/kg with lifted
index of -5C. Flow at all levels is weak (NAM forecast at 500 mb
this evening is 1 kt at Dodge City). With such a moist airmass
and such weak flow, scattered slow-moving thunderstorms this
afternoon and tonight will be capable of very heavy (locally
flooding) rainfall. Model consensus is the most likely area to see
this activity will be the western 1/2 of the CWA into tonight.
All models capture a vorticity max drifting around the CO/KS
border into this evening. 12z NAM/GFS both suggest lift from this
feature will incite convective initiation across the western zones
after 4 pm. Further, 12z NAM depicts a slow-moving MCS that
drifts into SW KS overnight. Increased pops some to 50% for these
western areas, but may increase again to likely. Also, included
heavy rain wording in the grids. The risk of severe hail/wind is
very low, with such weak flow and saturated profiles. Strong pulse
convection along the old frontal boundary may produce wind gusts
near 55 mph before sunset, mainly along the OK/KS border, as the
latest HRRR iterations are starting to suggest. Areas of showers
likely to continue all night with thick cloud cover, keeping
temperatures in the 68-72 range through sunrise Saturday.

Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue,
particularly during the afternoon and evening hours during peak
heating. All models show persistent compact vorticity max
wallowing around the western zones through Saturday, as well as
the remnant frontal boundary remaining in the vicinity, offering a
source of surface convergence. Atmospheric profiles of wind and
moisture change little from Friday, with more slow-moving heavy
rain producing storms expected. ECMWF in particular depicts an
impressive MCS across the western zones Saturday afternoon/night
with the potential for very heavy/flooding rainfall. Will need to
monitor for the exact location of this MCS evolution over the next
24 hours. Clouds, moisture and convection will hold temperatures a
bit below mid-July normals on Saturday, in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Sunday...Chance pops/scattered coverage of thunderstorms still
warranted, as atmosphere remains nearly steady-state with a moist
boundary layer and weak flow throughout. Spurious vorticity max,
or weakness embedded in the upper ridge aloft, will continue to
meander over/near the western zones through Sunday. For such a
small feature, models are showing amazing agreement with this
disturbance. Scattered thunderstorms will favor the western/SW
zones Sunday afternoon and evening, with again locally heavy
rainfall and minimal severe threat expected. With the high
pressure ridge weakened aloft, temperatures will continue to trend
a few degrees below normal, in the upper 80s to near 90.

Starting Monday, hot upper anticyclone begins to consolidate over
the central plains, putting the kibosh on rain chances and
sending temperatures upwards. Dry weather will prevail Monday
through Thursday as subsidence dominates. After coordinating with
neighbors, removed the spurious pops offered by GFS/superblend
during the Tuesday timeframe, but kept 14% in case something can
get through the western periphery of the ridge.

Starting next Friday, 12z ECMWF shows an interesting potential
evolution, with the upper high splitting into two centers, one
over the eastern Pacific, and the other near Florida. The weakness
between the two highs may allow for a pathway for Mexican
monsoonal moisture to makes its way toward Kansas. After a dry
spell for much of next week, rain chances likely to ramp up again
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Saturday
evening. Light and variable winds will persist across southwest
and central Kansas through early Saturday as a broad surface high
moves slowly east across the Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  89  67  89 /  40  30  40  30
GCK  66  87  65  88 /  50  40  50  30
EHA  61  89  61  87 /  30  40  50  30
LBL  68  90  67  88 /  40  40  50  30
HYS  67  88  66  91 /  20  10  10  10
P28  71  92  70  92 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...JJohnson



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