Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221735
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Atmosphere is more humid and unstable this afternoon compared to
previous days, as the dryline has backed up to the CO/KS border
vicinity. The dryline and its associated convergence will remain
near these western zones through peak heating, where various
models and CAMs including the latest iterations of the HRRR
develop scattered convection by around 4 pm. Most activity is
expected to remain west of US 83 through this evening. SPC 5%
wind/hail probability is plausible, with marginal MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg and marginal bulk shear around 30 kts. East of the
dryline, the south to southeast winds will continue to blow this
afternoon, in response to another round of lee cyclogenesis east
of Denver. S/SE winds will again gust to near 40 mph through
early evening. Temperatures still unseasonably hot, and
approaching record levels again this afternoon, well into the 90s.

Tonight...Breezy and unseasonably warm again. Any evening
convection across the western zones will diminish rapidly with the
loss of heating and convergence. Still, with various disturbances
embedded in the SW flow aloft in proximity to Colorado, kept some
pops going in the western zones all night. Locations east of US 83
expected to remain dry. S/SE winds will remain elevated and gusty
again tonight in response to another low level jet. With winds
keeping the boundary layer mixed and preventing radiational
cooling, another unseasonably warm night is on tap, with
temperatures struggling to get below 70 through sunrise Saturday.

Saturday...Closed low in Nevada remains essentially stationary
through the daylight hours. In other words, forcing for ascent
needed to encourage convection will be in no hurry to come into
SW KS. Still, 12z NAM and other guidance generate a line of
showers and thunderstorms near/west of the CO/KS state line by
6 pm, with this convection making some slow progress eastward to
near the US 83 corridor Saturday evening/night. Areas along and
especially east of US 283 will have to be patient, as those areas
are expected to remain dry through Saturday night. Otherwise, the
persist strong south winds will blow yet again on Saturday,
averaging 20-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph. Temperatures will
begin to cool down, as 850 mb temps drop 2-3C, and models depict
much more cloud cover (especially the western CWA). Afternoon
temperatures will range from the upper 70s along the Colorado
border, to the mid 80s at Dodge City, to near 90 eastern zones.
Just the beginning of a cooling trend that will continue through
the long term.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

A wet pattern is expected this weekend into at least the first
part of next week as an upper level low slides eastward with
shortwaves moving around its periphery. The best chance of
precipitation will start out across far western Kansas Saturday
spreading eastward across the remainder of the CWA Sunday and
Monday. These storms are not expected to be severe, but heavy rain
and frequent lighting will be possible. A strong cold front will
move through the area Monday night into Tuesday leading to much
cooler temperatures across the forecast area. Winds before this
frontal passage will generally be from a southerly direction
shifting to a northerly direction behind the front. A slight
chance of precipitation will be possible as we head into the mid
part of next week, but confidence is low at this time. As for
temperatures, highs start out Saturday ranging from the upper 70s
west to upper 80s across central Kansas. Highs Sunday range from
the mid 70s west to upper 80s central Kansas then range from the
upper 60s west to upper 70s east on Monday. Slightly below normal
temperatures are anticipated through the remainder of the long
term period with low 70s expected Monday through Thursday. Lows
will start out ranging from the upper 50s west to upper 60s east
Saturday night, low 50s to mid 60s Sunday night, then mid 40s to
upper 50s Monday night. Lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s are
expected throughout the remainder of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

VFR conditions through the time period. Gusty south winds will
affect all airports this afternoon into the early evening...sustained
24-29 kts with gusts of 34-38 kts. Later tonight LLWS of 50 kts
at 190 will be a factor for DDC, GCK, and LBL from 06 to 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  70  86  66 /   0  10  20  30
GCK  94  67  84  62 /  10  20  50  70
EHA  90  63  77  59 /  30  40  60  70
LBL  94  68  84  63 /  10  30  40  60
HYS  97  72  87  68 /   0  10  20  30
P28  93  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Tatro


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