Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 230510
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1210 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

At 00z Wednesday a 500mb high was centered over central Colorado
with an upper ridge axis extending north across the northern
Rockies. A 500mb low was located off the southwest coast of
British Columbia. A 300mb jet streak was located between the upper
high and upper low and extended from central California into Idaho.
A 700mb high was located over the Central High Plains and
temperatures varied from +12c at Omaha to +14c at Dodge City to
+17c at Denver. A 850mb cold front extended from northeast Wyoming
to southeast Nebraska at 00z Wednesday and the surface cold front
extended from northwest Kansas into northern Missouri.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Executing a bunch of superficial/minor tweaks... 1) will allow the heat
advisory to expire at 8 PM CDT. 2) feeble showers have tried to develop
across Rush county this evening, but are not developing vertically any
more. Looks very weak visually and have removed pops for this evening.
The HRRR suggests more convection, but this model is initializing poorly.
3) updated the HWO and EHWO. 4) running the usual ESTF grids to get
hourly t`s and sky grids in line with reality.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The upper level high pressure system over Colorado and New Mexico
will not be going anywhere over the next two days.  A cold front was
draped south across northern Kansas late this morning, with a
surface low pressure system over eastern Colorado.  The cold front
will sag slowly south today, and be just north of the I-70
interstate by 7 pm CDT.  This front should serve as a convergence
zone, as well as will the trough near the Colorado border.  We have
small 20 percent Pops in our west and northerly zones after 23z
today/tonight, extending in the north through about midnight.  The
chances are small, but if any storm does break through the cap, they
will likely be high based and with mainly down burst, strong winds
as hazards.  The surface is heating up nicely and highs today should
reach the forecasted maxes of 100 to 102F.  I plan to keep the Heat
Advisory ongoing through 8 pm, as currently forecast, and will
update it shortly.  The convective temp from  the DDC 12Z RAOB
showed 98F.   I Will brief the next shift on the high based storm
low chances and the main threat being down burst winds.

There will be a few clouds tonight, resulting in partly cloudy
skies.  Minimum temperatures should be from near 70F in the west
along the Colorado border, to the mid 70s in the Coldwater and
Medicine lodge areas. Again, the small chances for thunderstorms
will continue through midnight in our northern counties.

The cold front will push south to near our southern border with
Oklahoma Wednesday.  This should allow slightly cooler air and some
high level clouds to cover our CWA.  Max temperatures will lower
from the past two days, into the mid 90s north of I-70 to the
upper 90s in our south along the Oklahoma border.  Winds on
Wednesday should be from the east at 5 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Upper level ridging will build back into the high plains region for
Thursday and into the weekend. With renewed surface troughing over
western Kansas, high temperatures ought to warm back to the high
90s, with possibly some readings over 100F. Little in the way of
thunderstorm activity is expected, although isolated thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out, particularly in far western Kansas with
elevated heating. The next cold front is expected to pass through
western Kansas by Saturday night as an upper level system over the
northwestern United States passes over the upper level ridge into
the Great Lakes. High temperatures ought to drop at least several
degrees by Sunday to the lower and mid 90s, and probably to around
90F by Monday and Tuesday. There will be small chances for
thunderstorms as the front passes and even behind the front into
Monday. A large upper level trough will persist over the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes regions through the remainder of next
week, resulting in a continued break from the hot temperatures.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms given the lack of
mid level capping; but it appears as though the upper level
pattern may be too amplified for sufficient lee troughing and
destabilization in the presence of the northwesterly mid to upper
level flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected given that the 00Z NAM BUFR soundings
indicating limited mid to high level moisture will be present across
western Kansas as an upper high slowly moves east across Colorado
through late Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. Winds at less than 10knots will
shift from the south to the northeast as this front passes. Light
northeast winds will then gradually veer to the southeast by late
day as a surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the
Rockies and the surface ridge axis moves east towards Iowa and
Missouri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69 100  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  69 101  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  70 100  72 101 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  69  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert





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