Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260715
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
215 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ENOUGH FACTORS PRESENT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
PRESENT SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEARING
60F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY AS CAPPING WEAKENS. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG AS INDICATED BY NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BASED ON VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES, ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 70S(F) FOR THE MOST PART
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F)
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS CLOSER TO WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
AREA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND THIS, ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER AND
POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL, WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. WITH THE INCREASING
FLOW WE WILL SEE INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOIST ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. MODEL PW
FIELDS APPROACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A DAILY
BASIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND DAY7/8, THE MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH AN ATTENDANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KANSAS, IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY MUCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  57  82  63 /  20  20  50  60
GCK  77  55  82  61 /  20  20  50  50
EHA  77  54  83  61 /  10  20  30  40
LBL  78  57  84  62 /  20  20  40  60
HYS  78  56  80  64 /  10  10  40  60
P28  78  60  82  65 /  30  30  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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