Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 141026
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
426 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday evening)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Playing the stratus game once again this morning, as strong
moisture advection is directed into SW KS. Surface dewpoint near
50 at Medicine Lodge at midnight rather impressive for mid
November. Satellite imagery shows stratus expanding rapidly, and
the consensus of short term models has a very strong signal of
this transitioning to dense fog through sunrise. Dense fog is most
likely on the edge of the expanding stratus field, but with such
a strong short term model signal for widespread dense fog will
keep the inherited dense fog advisory intact. Currently at the
office 50/49 with a stratus deck at 300 feet. With such a moist
boundary layer and continued moisture convergence, visibility from
zero to 1/8 mile will be possible at times through sunrise.

Tuesday...Once again, stratus and fog will erode from west to
east, once again making for a challenging temperature forecast.
An impressive temperature range is expected once again by 3 pm,
ranging from the lower 50s NE to near 80 at Elkhart. There is a
major temperature bust potential across the central zones today,
as it will all come down to how far east the clearing line makes
it. Took my best stab at it, with a clearing line near Scott City
to Jetmore to Coldwater by 4 pm. 00z NAM forecast soundings show
stratus breaking at Dodge City just after noon. Pressure gradients
will be weaker today, with south winds at reduced speeds compared
to Monday, which lends some uncertainty regarding the low cloud
erosion. South winds will average 10-15 mph.

Tonight...Finally a change from the stratus routine, as a strong
but dry cold front sweeps through around midnight with strong
gusty N/NW winds. With 850 mb winds of 30-40 mph, some gusts of
that magnitude are plausible, at least during the initial frontal
passage. Selected the strongest MAV wind guidance for the wind
grids tonight. 00z NAM depicts a 1027 mb surface high in NE
Colorado by sunrise Wednesday, with a supply of much drier air.
Expecting a clear sky by sunrise Wednesday with lows in the 30s NW
to 40s SE.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 147 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Outside of some passing light rain and/or snow showers north of
Dodge City early Saturday morning, the forecast remains dry. There
are some encouraging signs of a pattern change that may bring
precipitation back to SW KS just before Thanksgiving.

Wednesday...A pleasant day for November standards, with full
sunshine and a diminishing N/NE wind behind Tuesday night`s cold
front. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s north to the lower
60s south.

Thursday...Windy and warmer. Lee troughing establishes under fast
westerly flow aloft. South winds will respond, increasing to
20-30 mph. Afternoon temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s.

Models are slowing down the timing of the expected storm system
passage Friday and Saturday. 00z ECMWF depicts the primary
shortwave still in Nevada at 6 pm Friday. As such, the forecasted
surface pressure fields across Kansas on Friday are changing, with
a strong surface cyclone near the northern CWA Friday
afternoon/evening (as opposed to Kansas City). With the low in
closer proximity, the strongest winds will be restricted to the
KS/OK border, and may not be as strong as earlier advertised. Also
with the slower timing, models are trending warmer Friday with a
more expansive warm sector. In fact, 00z ECMWF is quite excited
about the warmth, increasing 850 mb temps into the 20-22C range.
With strong westerly downslope components, trended temperatures
upward. 00z ECMWF bias- corrected guidance forecasts upper 70s and
lower 80s Friday with near record highs. The record high for
Dodge City for November 17th is 80...not impossible.

A strong cold front will race through SW KS Friday night with
strong north winds. The slower timing opens up a window of
opportunity for passing rain and/or snow showers north of Dodge
City Saturday morning as the main shortwave arrives. With the
forcing for ascent over the post-frontal airmass, some light snow
is possible across the northern zones. Still looks too progressive
for meaningful precipitation, but this system will be monitored
for any further slowing.

This weekend...Sunny and dry, with modest north winds Saturday and
south winds Sunday. Afternoon temperatures near normal for mid-
November, in the 50s.

Monday...Dry and warmer.

Models to varying degrees are depicting a pattern change just
before Thanksgiving, with a cutoff low near the Four Corners
creating a rex block over the Rocky Mountains. 00z ECMWF
shows rain spreading into SW KS on Wednesday Nov 22 (the largest
travel day of the year). Forecast builder model blend is also
starting to bring in pops during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 423 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Low ceilings and visibilities will bring widespread IFR to LIFR
conditions to all TAF sites early this morning. These clouds are
expected to dissipate from west to east late this morning into
the afternoon. The HYS terminal will be an exception to this where
low clouds and fog may hang around all day. Winds will generally
be from a southelry direction this morning into this afternoon
then shift to the southeast this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  40  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  71  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  78  39  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  74  40  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  57  39  57  34 /  10   0   0   0
P28  64  46  60  36 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ030-031-
043>046-062>065-075>080-085>089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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