Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 170723
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OUT
OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TONIGHT, MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS, PRECIP WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE
20S(F) AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER 30S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP DUE TO A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS PUSHING H85
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD 40S(F) ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 50F
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AVERAGING 10 TO
14 KNOTS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
DRAW IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADING TO LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT DDC, GCK, AND HYS
SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH GIVEN TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE UNCERTAINTIES AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD, HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT TAF UPDATE AT 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  29  37  29 /  20  60  30   0
GCK  47  28  40  27 /  10  40  20   0
EHA  50  28  43  28 /  10  30  10   0
LBL  48  29  41  29 /  10  30  20   0
HYS  40  26  34  26 /  10  50  20   0
P28  42  31  38  30 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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