Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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145
FXUS63 KDDC 271742
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1242 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

N/NE winds prevail this afternoon with considerable stratocumulus.
Despite this, temperatures are warming into the 70s, and with
dewpoints holding in the 50s, there is still enough instability
(and bulk shear) for lingering convective concerns through this
evening. Convective initiation has already occurred near Great
Bend, and will need to monitor the eastern zones for strong to
severe storms through this afternoon. Additionally, upslope E/NE
flow is expected to incite a crop of scattered thunderstorms
across E/SE Colorado this afternoon, with many models indicating
this activity will impact the far SW zones (Stanton, Morton,
Stevens counties). SPC upgraded these areas to a slight risk for a
large hail threat for late this afternoon and evening. Bulk shear
is still 40-45 kts in this region, so rotating updrafts and
associated hail threat are possible. Expect this threat to remain
relegated to far SW Kansas into this evening.

Tonight...Decreasing clouds and diminishing N/NW winds. Lows
Sunday morning in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Sunday...A pleasant day for the Memorial Day weekend. Sunny and
dry for all of SW KS, with temperatures near late May normals, in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Tame NW breeze at 10-20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Dry conditions are anticipated Sunday into the first part of next
week as an upper level ridge builds above the western United
States with high pressure being the dominate feature at the
surface. A few isolated storms will be possible Monday and Tuesday
evening, but most places look to remain dry. A better chance of
storms looks to be Wednesday into Thursday as the upper level
ridge treks east of the area and the next storm system moves in
from the west. As for temperatures, highs are progged to rise to
around 80 degrees each day with lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

MVFR cigs may be possible in the vicinity of all TAF sites later
this morning through this afternoon as low level stratus develops
along and behind a cold front moving across western Kansas. North
to northeast winds 15 to 25kt will develop across western Kansas
through late this morning as the aforementioned cold front moves
across western Kansas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  52  78  52 /  20  10   0   0
GCK  74  50  78  50 /  20  20   0   0
EHA  75  48  76  51 /  20  30   0   0
LBL  78  52  78  51 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  67  52  78  52 /  60  10   0   0
P28  83  56  81  54 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...JJohnson



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