Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 160810
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
310 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

A few showers or isolated thunderstorms will be possible early
this morning across portions of south central Kansas as an upper
level wave lifts northeast fro the Texas Panhandle into central
Kansas.

For the remainder of the day....A surface cold front will move
across western Kansas this morning with all the models being in
decent agreement with placing this frontal boundary east and south
of Dodge City by 18z Saturday. South of this frontal boundary it
will be another unseasonably warm day with highs in the 90s while
behind this front temperatures are expected to range from the mid
to upper 80s. Warm 800mb temperatures will be present across
western Kansas which will keep an area of inhibition present this
afternoon and limit the chances for convection late today. The
exception to this will be along a cold front in south central
Kansas where some widely scattered thunderstorms still appear
possible. A few of these storms may be severe thunderstorms given
the mid level instability and 0-6km shear. Hail up to half
dollars and wind gusts of 60 mph appears to be the main hazards
from these storms.

Overnight...Several models indicating low level moisture will
begin to improve north of this boundary. Based on the increasing
moisture and weak lift in the lower levels across western Kansas
this may be enough to some light precipitation to develop towards
daybreak. Convection late tonight into early Sunday not looking
very good so will removed all mention of thunder. Clouds across
southwest and south central Kansas will aid in keeping
temperatures up some tonight compared to lows expected further
north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

On Sunday a surface boundary/stationary front will be located
just south of the Oklahoma border from southeast Colorado to
northwest Oklahoma. North of this boundary a moist
east/southeasterly upslope flow will continue and 850mb warm air
advection will be on the increase late day into early Sunday
night. Given the increasing low level moisture on Sunday and weak
lift will favor a cloudy day and possibly some light
precipitation. The better opportunity for precipitation will be
late day or early Sunday night as the warm air advection improves
ahead of what appears to be a subtle upper wave lifting northeast
from New Mexico into southwest Kansas. Give the expected cloud
cover across western Kansas on Sunday the highs are expected to
only climb into the 70s with a few 80s being possible near the
Oklahoma border.

Models remain in good agreement with a mean upper level trough
moving into the western United States early next week. A series of
upper level disturbances move from the base of this upper trough
into the Western High Plains next week. The first in this series
of upper level waves will cross western Kansas Monday night and
this may bring as slight chance for thunderstorms to portions of
western Kansas. The next upper wave is then expected to cross the
West Central High Plains Tuesday night and as this next upper
level system lifts northeast across the Western Plains a surface
cold front will drop south across western Kansas on Wednesday.
This will bring another brief cool down in temperatures mid week
but the chance for precipitation mid week currently appears
small. The better opportunity for precipitation across western
Kansas at this time appears to hold off until closer to next
weekend as yet another, more significant, upper level trough moves
out into the Plains.

Temperatures will climb back into the 90s early next week still
looks on track. The potential even exists for some upper 90s being
possible by Tuesday afternoon across portions of western Kansas
if the GFS and ECMWF 850mb temperature trends verify. A brief cool
down mid week behind the frontal boundary will be quickly
followed by another warming trend late week.

As temperatures climb into the 90s early next week and gusty
south winds develop the Fire Danger Levels will be on the increase
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

NAM Model soundings picking up on a 50 to 55 knot low level jet
across western Kansas overnight as a southeasterly surface wind
continues near 15 knots. A surface cold front will cross western
and north central Kansas early today and based on the RAP, NAM,
and even GFS it appears that this surface boundary will move
across the Hays and Garden City areas between 12z and 15z
Saturday. The front will then continue to track southeast and
cross Dodge City and Liberal by 18z. As this front passes the
southeast winds at around 15 knots will shift to the north and
briefly increasing before falling back into the 10 to 15 knot
range by late day. Models soundings indicating moisture return to
western Kansas will be primarily in the 700 to 500mb level today
so VFR conditions are expected through early this evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  56  77  61 /  10  20  30  30
GCK  85  54  74  60 /  10  20  30  40
EHA  85  55  76  59 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  89  60  78  61 /  10  20  30  30
HYS  81  53  72  60 /  10  20  20  50
P28  94  64  79  65 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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