Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180741
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
241 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

...Updated Fire Weather...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Moist upslope SE winds across all of SW KS as of midnight, with
dewpoints well into the 50s. Convective anvil debris dissipating.
Last few images of satellite imagery shows stratus blossoming
nicely, beginning just east of Dodge City. Stratus will continue
to expand north and west to some extent through sunrise, but am
uncertain how far it will get. Model guidance is not helping much
with little agreement. Included low clouds and areas of fog across
the eastern 1/2 of the CWA through early Tuesday morning.

Any stratus will burn off rapidly by mid morning Tuesday, with
sunshine and much warmer temperatures expected. Afternoon highs
ranging from the upper 70s far east (last to see the stratus burn
off) to the mid 80s across the SW zones. Increasing south winds
this afternoon, averaging 15-25 mph with higher gusts, in response
to lee troughing deepening in eastern Colorado. Moisture advection
will maintain dewpoints in the 50s this afternoon, with 00z NAM
forecasting CAPE near 1000 J/kg and lifted index near -4C. Despite
the instability, a lack of forcing will keep all zones dry through
tonight. Expecting at most some cumulus clouds this afternoon.

Tonight...windy and mild. A strong low level jet is progged to
develop across SW KS immediately after dark, with 850 mb winds
near 55 kts. South winds will remain strong and gusty all night,
averaging 20-30 mph. This mixing will keep temperatures warm
through Wednesday morning, with many locations only falling to
near 60.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, as plume of much
warmer air invades the southern plains ahead of an approaching
cold front. 00z ECMWF shows this nicely, with 850 mb temperatures
climbing to near +20C NE to near +27C far SW. Mid to upper 80s
will be common Wednesday afternoon, with lower 90s along the
Oklahoma border. Some mid 90s are possible south of Dodge City
near Ashland, where downslope and prefrontal compression will hold
on the longest. Most of Wednesday will be dry for most locations.
Cold front/dryline intersection expected to occur near the NE
zones around 7 pm, at which time all models initiate convection,
which subsequently moves southward across the eastern CWA
Wednesday evening. MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg and effective shear near
40 kts will support supercells initially early Wednesday evening,
with large hail likely from any storm that develops. This threat
is expected to remain confined to areas east of a Wakeeney-
Jetmore-Ashland line Wednesday evening. Most models depict
thunderstorms impacting the SE zones late Wednesday evening.
Cold front enters the northern zones around 7 pm, and quickly
clears all of SW KS by midnight with breezy NE winds.

Thursday will be noticeably cooler. Mostly sunny, a NE wind of
10-20 mph, and highs in the upper 60s.

Increasing clouds Thursday night, as forcing for ascent arrives
ahead of incoming jet max through the central Rockies. Light
showers, drizzle or fog are likely by sunrise Friday.

Regarding the expected storm system Friday, 00z GFS continues to
be stronger and further south compared to the 00z ECMWF. GFS
forecasts a 558 dm closed low to pass directly over SW KS Friday
afternoon. By contrast, 00z ECMWF doesn`t even close the low off
until it reaches central Kansas Friday night. With the stronger
more southern track, GFS and FB pops/QPF are much higher and there
are no major changes in the forecast for showers and thunderstorms
Friday. With either solution, likely pops are still warranted
(especially Friday morning), but did start trimming expected
rainfall amounts, particularly SW zones, should the drier and more
progressive ECMWF solution come to pass.

Much cooler Friday and Saturday, with afternoon temperatures
generally in the 50s.

Will need to watch Sunday morning closely for frost or potentially
light freeze potential. Strong surface high builds down the high
plains through 7 am Sunday, under dry NW flow aloft. With a clear
sky and light winds, radiational cooling will be strong and 30s
are likely. Sunday and Monday will be sunny and dry with a warming
trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Low confidence in the evolution of stratus tonight into Tuesday
morning. Outside of convective anvil debris, sky is generally
clear as of midnight. Last few images of satellite imagery do show
stratus beginning to redevelop just east of DDC, which is
reasonable given continued moist upslope flow. Stratus now
developing at DDC as of this writing. Forecasted MVFR cigs in
stratus at DDC/HYS through sunrise Tuesday, but kept out of the
GCK/LBL TAFs. A period of IFR cigs is most likely at DDC. Any
stratus will burn off quickly after 15z Tue. South winds will
increase some Tuesday afternoon, averaging 15-25 kts, in response
to lee troughing east of the Rockies. After 00z Wed, S/SE winds
will remain strong and gusty as a strong low level jet develops
over SW KS. With SWly 850 mb winds near 55 kts, low level wind
shear is included in all TAFs starting around 03z Wed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Much warmer with breezy gusty south winds today, but humidity
levels will remain elevated, lessening the fire danger. Wednesday
will be even warmer, with afternoon temperatures in the 85-92 range
and min RH falling into the 15-20% range across the western zones.
Elevated fire danger is expected west of the dryline Wednesday
afternoon, but it appears west winds will remain below red flag
criteria at 15-25 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  60  88  48 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  83  57  867 47 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  88  56  88  48 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  87  60  92  49 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  78  60  84  47 /  10  10   0  10
P28  80  61  85  53 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Turner



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