Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 161700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Conditions continue to be very favorable for another round of
thunderstorms to develop across southwest and central Kansas this
afternoon and evening. These storms will include a significant
risk for severe weather including very large hail, damaging winds
and a few tornadoes. GOES 16 Low cloud/fog enhancement channel
along with surface observations show deeper low level moisture
over west Texas early this morning. Dewpoints at KLBB were in
the mid 60s. This moisture is spreading rapidly northward into
the Panhandle region as shown by satellite loops.

The 00z NAM has a pretty good handle on the moisture field and brings
mid 60s dewpoints into southwest and central Kansas today to the east
of a dryline that will likely be situated near Highway 83 by mid
afternoon. Model soundings show the lower levels moistening up with
stratus likely overspreading the parts of the forecast area this morning.
The boundary layer will be capped through the early afternoon hours
but this should erode by mid afternoon with daytime heating and mid
level height falls ahead of a deep shortwave trough/upper low advancing
out of the southwestern U.S. Mean layer instability increases to
around 2500-3000 j/kg with 0-6km bulk shear values around 45-55
knots along and ahead of the dryline. Some of the convective
allowing models show thunderstorms breaking out by 1 pm but this
may be a little premature. Nested NAM and HRRRX have storms
breaking out by 21z along the dryline and developing/spreading
rapidly northeast through the late afternoon and early evening
hours. Have adjusted the grids to reflect a later start for
convection and also increased pops a little bit farther west. Will
continue to mention severe attributes similar to the previous
shift with a mention of large hail and damaging winds along with
an isolated tornado.

Storms should propagate into central Kansas during the evening
hours with most of the convective activity east of the forecast
area by midnight. As the upper moves out over the Plains by later
tonight, some deformation zone showers/thunderstorms could move
out mainly through west central into central Kansas late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

The upper low lifts out of the High Plains into the Midwest during
the day Wednesday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
linger across central Kansas in the morning but should move out
rapidly with the upper low during the day. Strong mid level westerly
flow will be over the area through much of the day, resulting in
gusty west winds. Sunny skies and the downslope flow should yield
high temperatures back into the low/mid 80s.

Another upper low system will move into the central Rockies from
the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night. As this occurs, surface
low pressure will deepen over southeast Colorado and move into the
Texas Panhandle all the while pulling low level moisture back to
the north and west. A frontal boundary will also slide south
across Kansas to a position from the near Wichita to Amarillo by
Thursday afternoon. The GFS and ECMWF are coming into better focus
with this event and show a shortwave lobe rotating through the
south and southeast quadrant of the upper low Thursday afternoon
and evening. Instability increases along the front which could be
as far north as the Coldwater/Pratt/Medicine Lodge vicinity
Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorms will be developing along and
north of the front Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the upslope flow
favored areas over western Kansas . With a moist airmass in place
and a low level jet impinging on the front, the potential for
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding will be high over
south central Kansas Thursday night. One fly in the ointment to
this will be if the front is able to blow through south central
Kansas into Oklahoma and taking the significant precipitation with
it earlier Thursday evening. The NAM is the only model showing
that scenario at this time but this will have to be watched.

The upper low starts to exit the High Plains by the weekend with
drier weather on tap for a few days before another upper level
shortwave brings increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
to the region late Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Svr tsra will be possible this
afternoon and evening. Highest probs at KLBL and KDDC. Activity will
exit the region late tonight. SW winds 10-25 kt bcmg southerly overnight.
LLWS psbl at KHYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  54  81  51 /  50  50  10   0
GCK  85  53  80  50 /  40  20  10   0
EHA  84  52  80  51 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  88  53  82  52 /  50  30   0   0
HYS  86  57  78  51 /  50  50  20   0
P28  83  59  82  55 /  40  60  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Sugden



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