Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211732
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1232 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Dry conditions will continue across western Kansas through late
Monday afternoon as short range models indicate moisture/instability
slow to return to western Kansas as surface high pressure moves
slowly east across eastern Kansas into Missouri during the period.
As for temperatures, a developing lee side trough of low pressure
will slowly strengthen across eastern Colorado tonight as the
aforementioned surface high departs eastward. This will set up a
southerly flow across western Kansas which will begin to draw
slightly warmer air northward into the area. Look for lows down
into the upper 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F) tonight. Afternoon
highs will bump up a little Monday afternoon from today with
temperatures well up into the 80s(F) to near 90F.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Thunderstorm chances will increase by later Tuesday and Wednesday
as upper level troughing approaches the destabilizing lower
levels. The best chance of storms may be Tuesday afternoon and
evening, with lingering storms over south central Kansas
Wednesday. The storms Tuesday may be severe with large hail given
the expected moderate surface based CAPE and strong upper level
winds approaching 60 kts. High temperatures will increase to near
90 by Monday and into the lower 90s by Tuesday given the surface
lee troughing. Cooler highs in the lower 80s can be expected by
Thursday in the wake of the cold front. Thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out by Friday and Saturday as shortwave energy moves across
the plains and low level warm advection resumes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Monday
morning. Southerly winds 10 to 20kt will persist across central and
western Kansas through early Monday as surface high pressure in
eastern Kansas shifts slowly eastward into Missouri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  62  90  68 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  84  62  90  66 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  85  62  88  63 /  10   0  20  20
LBL  85  62  88  66 /   0   0  20  20
HYS  85  60  88  67 /   0   0  10  20
P28  84  62  88  69 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...JJohnson



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