Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 310609
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
109 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR
CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z MODEL
OUTPUT HAS COME IN A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 29-32 DEGREE
RANGE FROM CENTRAL INTO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

THE NAM MODEL SHOWS A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER CLOUDS
DEVELOP AND HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE. WILL HEDGE TOWARD THE
COLDER SOLUTION. WITH THAT IN MIND, WE WILL BE CONVERTING MOST OF
OUR FREEZE WATCH INTO A FREEZE WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY, THE CORE OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO THE MIDWEST. WE WILL SEE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BACKED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
ALONG I-70 TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY AFTER 9 PM AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO MOST OF WESTERN
KANSAS EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF GARDEN CITY TO THE COLORADO
BORDER. THE LIGHTEST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE. THE FREEZE
WARNING WAS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE WAKEENEY, DODGE CITY AND
ASHLAND.

A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
PROGRESSING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHERN END OF
THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION,
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
DODGE CITY, WHERE AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH LOCALLY. ONLY SMALL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DIGHTON, SCOTT CITY
AND WAKEENEY. THIS IS NOT ATYPICAL IN THE COOL SEASON SINCE
HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT TENDS TO BE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST IN KANSAS TYPICALLY REQUIRES SLOW
MOVING AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
THESE WILL NOT BE SEVERE. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY DESPITE THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. BY THIS TIME, THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
(THERMAL GRADIENT) WILL HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A POST FRONTAL DECK OF MVFR STRATUS WITH 1500 TO 3000 FT CEILINGS
WAS SPREADING SOUTHWEST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY IMPACT AREA TAFS AFTER 10 TO
12 UTC AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO COOL. A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN
ABOUT 12 AND 15 UTC WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH INSOLATION THROUGH
THE MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  31  59  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  53  33  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  40  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  55  37  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  45  27  53  41 /   0   0   0   0
P28  51  29  55  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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