Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010832
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
332 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Warmer conditions are in store for the weekend. Highs today will
be in the upper 70s and low 80s. The models have persisted with a
weak wave moving through the shortwave upper ridge over the
central High Plains late tonight into early Sunday morning. The
forecast has been kept basically consistent with slight chances for
showers/isolated storms in that timeframe. Surface troughing over
eastern Co and weak high pressure to the east will result in yet
another day of easterly/southeast surface winds but perhaps with
slightly better mixing and stronger afternoon gusts in the mid 20s
(knots). Slightly more mild overnight lows can also be expected,
rising back into the 50s tonight as the dew points increase.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Sunday will likely be a few degrees warmer as well as another
warm day expected Monday in advance of the approaching upper Pacific
low. The low will create a convergence zone over the central
Plains with may force ascent and resultant organized convection
Monday night into Tuesday. The models have been consistent keeping
the far western counties most likely dry, and the best chances
for precipitation or even severe storms in the central Kansas
counties. An immediate cooling trend is also likely, but not a
strong once. More fall-like with highs fall back to the 70s and
low to the 40s for the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Certainly dry conditions for at least next 18 hours. Southeast
surface wind will be light, but could increase to the 14 to 22 knot
range (top gusts) briefly in the afternoon. beyond about 03 UTC
Sunday, an increased risk of non-severe convection will come into
the picture as a weak shortwave exists the Rockies into the
Plains.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  57  82  58 /  10  30  10  10
GCK  80  55  83  58 /  20  20  10   0
EHA  81  55  84  59 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  82  56  85  60 /  20  20  10   0
HYS  76  56  80  59 /  10  10   0  10
P28  77  57  81  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...MR



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