Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 242058
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CHARACHTERIZE THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE JUST AHEAD OF A
LEE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING AND COLORADO, PROVIDING WEAK DOWNSLOPE
ADIABATIC WARMING TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE DEEP DRY AIRMASS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL PROVIDE VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S BOTH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE A DEEPENING OF THE COLORADO LEE TORUGH
INTO A DEEPER SURFACE LOW THAT MIGRATES EASTWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS COLD FRONT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY, LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA IN THE SURFACE WARM
SECTOR DURING THE DAY WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT NEAR THE
KS/CO LINE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15
KNOTS OR HIGHER, PROVIDING EXCELLENT DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD BEE THE GREATEST
WARMUP FORM RECENT TEMPERATURES (NEAR OR SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEEDING
60 DEGREES BY THE AFTERNOON), WHILE MID 50S ARE PLAUSIBLE AS FAR
EAST AS HAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY DESERVED THE MOST
ATTENTION ON THIS SHIFT. THE GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS (BOTH OPERATIONAL
40KM AND EXPERIMENTAL 13KM) HAVE COME AROUND TO A SLOWER AND DEEPER
DEPICTION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A MORE DEVELOPED 700MB LOW A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 700MB ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE LOW CENTER
WILL FIRST TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN COLORADO EARLY IN
THE DAY FRIDAY. THE ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
FAR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, WE
WILL BE WATCHING A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO FORM IN
A WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA-
TEXAS. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHAT THE 850-700MB MEAN MOIST
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE DURING THE 21Z FRIDAY THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY TIME
FRAME, BUT THE BEST INDICATION IS THAT SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES
WOULD BE MOST FAVORED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM THIS SECTOR OF
THE STORM SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, A WEAK FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM ROUGHLY
825 TO 750MB ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF STRONGER, DEEPER LIFT.
WE HAVE PAINTED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AROUND A HALF INCH TO
ONE INCH OF STORM TOTAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF WIND WITH THIS EVENT, HOWEVER THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, SO WE EXPECT
NORTH WINDS TO BE IN THE 12 TO 17 KNOT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
WARM BACK UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH HIGHS SATURDAY STRUGGLING
TO REACH 30 MOST PLACES AND ONLY INTO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY AS WINDS
TRY TO COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE
GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE MAJOR RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
CANADA AND EASTERN ALASKA WHICH WILL TRANSPORT HIGH PV AIR
EQUATORWARD.  ARCTIC AIR WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED EQUATORWARD -- AND
A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF IT AS IT NOW APPEARS. THE INITIAL FRONT WILL
PROBABLY COME SOMETIME MONDAY, SUCH THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
ONE MORE NEAR-NORMAL DAY TEMPERATURE WISE. TODAY`S GFS (40KM AND
13KM) AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW -12 TO -14C 850MB TEMPERATURES AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF NOW SHOWS -18 TO -20C AT 850MB REACHING THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE DODGE CITY FORECAST AREA! THE EXPERIMENTAL
13KM GFS IS ABOUT ON PAR WITH THE ECMWF. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE
THAT TUESDAY WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY.

THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WILL CALL FOR A HIGH IN THE
LOWER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. IF THE
CURRENT OMINOUS SOLUTIONS OF THE 13KM GFS AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE IN
FOLLOWING RUNS, THEN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN
THE LOWER 20S -- MORE LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE +7 TO +16F
RANGE.  WITH SUCH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE DIGGING LOW OUT WEST, LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO BE A GOOD
BET AS WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT VERY HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS IN
THE CARDS (ACCUMULATING SNOW COMBINED WITH VERY COLD WIND CHILLS
PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO) SHOULD THE LATEST OMINOUS GLOBAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ON THIS TREND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

STRATUS RETREATED TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AT ALL
TERMINALS WERE EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND EXPECTED TO
PERSIST (AS WELL AS VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY, AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  56  25  33 /   0   0   0  40
GCK  23  58  24  29 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  28  63  24  31 /   0   0   0  30
LBL  26  65  25  33 /   0   0   0  30
HYS  23  53  24  30 /   0   0  10  30
P28  27  56  30  39 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.