326
FXUS63 KDDC 271922
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
222 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...updated short and long...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Very quiet weather is expected to continue within the short term domain.
A backdoor cold front will traverse across the forecast district tomorrow
morning. Winds will eventually become northeasterly in the wake of the
front. In the meantime, lows tonight should be a little warmer as a
downslope wind continues through the overnight - upper 40s to mid 50s.
With the above mentioned front, tomorrows highs will be cooler. There
is weak caa, particularly across the NE zones, where 850-hPa temperatures
are forecast to drop in the lower teens. As a result, have a gradient
with mid 70s northeast to low to mid 80s southwest. No precip is expected
within this forecast temporal domain.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

The cool high pressure with 850-hPa temperatures near 10C will continue
on Thursday. The net result is a cool day with some areas barely breaking
out of the 60s. It will be a little warmer to the west as southerly
flow and weak waa develops on the backside of the eventually departing
high. Temperatures will moderate Friday and into the weekend. There
could be some waa induced showers Saturday, however, moisture is fairly
limited. For the rest of the period, as a large trof is carved out west,
moisture advection across the CP is eventually expected. There might
be enough instability Sunday and Monday for thunderstorms. Models are
trending to develop the low level cyclone to the northwest, which does
not bode well for heavy precipitation. The superblend pops look fine
for now, which are in the slight chance range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

CAVU/VFR expected through TAF pd. Backdoor front will eventually traverse
through by morning. Winds eventually veering NE by mid AM. Gentle magnitudes.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  78  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  49  80  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  51  83  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  81  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  51  74  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
P28  55  78  47  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden