Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 130744
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
244 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
...Updated for Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
For today, northwesterly dry upper level flow will prevail across
the Central Plains while the main upper jet remains north into the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A very weak surface pressure
gradient will be in place across western Kansas today with light
westerly winds becoming light north to light and variable, as weak
low pressure moves into parts of southwest Kansas. 850 mb temps warm
to around 22 degrees Celsius with mixdown temps yielding highs
around 86 to 88 degrees. These temps are about 15 degrees above
normal. Skies will be clear.
For tonight, weak surface high pressure builds into the Central
Plains with light north to northeasterly winds and clear skies.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s except around 50 near the
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
Another shortwave trough is expected to drop southeast out of
southern Canada into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Thursday. This
will push another cold front south into Kansas by Thursday
afternoon. The ECMWF continues to show potential for some light
shower and thunderstorm activity over south central Kansas Thursday
evening as the front encounters somewhat better moisture. Not overly
confident that this will happen as the model soundings do not show
much instability in that area but will leave as is for now. Some of
the coolest temperatures so far this fall are expected to round out
the week as cooler air moves in behind the front. Highs will be in
the 60s on Friday and Saturday with lows in the low to mid 40s.
Upper 30s are not out of the question over parts of central and west
central Kansas especially Friday morning.
The upper low off the coast of southern California is progged to
eventually phase with a strong upper trough moving in from the
northeast Pacific by this weekend. This could bring a slight chance
for showers or possibly some thunderstorms by late in the weekend or
early next week.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
VFR conditions will continue with clear skies. A weak surface
pressure gradient will be across western Kansas with light
southwest downslope winds becoming light north in the evening.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 88 46 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 87 45 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 86 51 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 87 50 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 86 44 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
P28 87 49 82 52 / 0 0 0 0