000
FXUS63 KDDC 211124
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
624 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

A hot day is expected again across the region as the mid to upper
level ridge of high pressure remains anchored from the Central
Plains into the southeast CONUS. Nonetheless, a potent wave riding
within the stronger westerlies across the Northern High Plains will
flatten this ridge while also allowing the surface lee trough to
deepen over eastern CO. This will bring gusty south to southwest
winds today which along with deep thermal mixing up to 700 hPa, will
result in afternoon highs in the 100-105 F range. Further, with
dewpoints holding closer to 60 F from Hays to Pratt, heat index
values will be close to 105 in this area. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for this region of the central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

The pattern turns slighlty more active late Saturday as the mid to
upper level ridge shifts back into the Intermountain West. This is
largely in response to the tail end of the wave mentioned over the
Northern Plains, sagging southeast into Kansas. This will push a
weak front into western Kansas by Saturday evening with an
associated chance for thunderstorms by late afternoon to early
evening. Risk for severe storms looks minimal as both low and deep
layer is rather weak. However, ahead of this front one more day with
temperatures near 100 or higher will exist as strong solar
insolation allows mixing up to 700 hPa. Heat index readings around
105 are possible mainly along and east of a Hays to Dodge City line
by mid afternoon although if dewpoints are even slightly lower than
expected values may stay in the 100-103 range. Similar to today,
active heat advisory covers this potential for high index values.

The front then shifts southward into OK to the TX Panhandle by
Sunday morning and then stalling over those areas through Monday.
This will bring a reprieve from triple digit temperatures with
cooler conditions expected both days along with a chance for
thunderstorms. Tuesday then becomes a transition day as the ridge
starts building back into the Great Plains while the previous front
essentially dissolves over OK into the TX Panhandle. This will
result in a return to dry and hot conditions for the middle of the
week. By the end of the workweek the global spectral models hint at
another weak boundary slipping into the Central Plains with a chance
for thunderstorms despite the ridge still sitting over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

A low level jet over the area will result in LLWS at the terminals
at the beginning of this period. This should diminish fairly
rapidly this morning. South to southwest winds will be gusty to
20-25 knots through the day. LLWS may redevelop late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 103  73 104  69 /   0   0  10  30
GCK 101  69  98  67 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  99  69  95  67 /   0   0  10  30
LBL 102  70  99  69 /   0   0  10  20
HYS 104  74  99  69 /   0   0  20  40
P28 104  76 104  74 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ031-046-065-066-081-
090.

Heat Advisory from 1 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ064-077>080-
087>089.

Heat Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJohnson
LONG TERM...AJohnson
AVIATION...Gerard