Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 111720
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1120 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2013
...Updated aviation and synopsis sections...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013
A cold longwave trough gripped much of eastern North America. Mid
and lower tropospheric temperatures were very cold across much of
the eastern CONUS. While several synoptic baroclinic zones could be
identified from the Gulf Coast states through the Midwest region,
the baroclinic zones were not very frontogenetic with uniform
west-southwest winds in the highly zonal pattern. There was a minor
shortwave trough at 500mb moving through the Lower Great Lakes
region...but this did not move the needle much in terms of mid level
frontogenesis and overall sensible weather impacts. Across Kansas,
a reinforcing shot of cold air moved into the state late yesterday,
but the true arctic air remained well north into the eastern
Dakotas, Minnesota and northern Iowa (at least at 850mb). Some of
this arctic air at the surface had reached southeastern Nebraska,
which was not modifying much given the snowpack encompassing much of
eastern and southern Nebraska. The snowpack reached as far south as
the Highway 24 corridor of north-central Kansas and between Highway
24 and 36 across northeastern Kansas. There was no remaining
snowpack across the southwest Kansas region.
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013
Looking at the h5 flow from the NAM, ECMWF and GFS models, western
Kansas will be under a west to northwest flow regime today and
tonight. At the surface, a cold front passed through to the south
early this morning, and high pressure was building in from the
north. Today will be considerably colder than yesterday. However,
I did bump up forecast highs for today by 1 or 2 degrees, especially
in the southern forecast areas near the Oklahoma border. All MOS
guidance pushed temps up, and we line up better with WFO neighbors
to the south. There will be plenty of sunshine today, and winds
will be northerly at 5 to 15 mph, bringing in some cold air.
Tonight will see the surface high slip off to the southeast, with
winds returning to the southerly direction, but not too strong.
Winds tonight should be in the 10 to 15 mph range. A few high
cirrus clouds will slip into the far west zones near the Colorado
border, but should not be thick enough to have an influence on
minimum temperatures. I did not change the forecast mins for
tonight, ranging from 12F-13F degrees in the Hays and Wakeeney areas
to 17F-18F degrees in the Elkhart and Liberal areas. A trough in
eastern Colorado will aid in keeping temperatures in southwest
sections near Morton County a little elevated tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013
A wave will move across Kansas Friday, however the region will be on
the wrong side of the jet and in isentropic downglide/subsidence. Evolution
of deterministic runs over the last few nights supports this. Pops will
remain aob 14 percent. The rest of the forecast is northwesterly flow
aloft with a low level weak warm air advection pattern in place. Temperatures
will trend to near or above normal.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013
There was a narrow band of 1000 to 1400 foot broken-overcast stratus
that became centered over GCK terminal late in the morning. This
thin band of stratus will slowly dissolve shortly after noon giving
way to VFR at GCK. Elsewhere...VFR will prevail with only some high
cirrus clouds moving across southwest Kansas through the afternoon.
Light winds of less than 8 knots are forecast for the afternoon
through this evening...however as the surface high shifts
east...winds will increase out of the south-southwest after 06Z
Thursday at around 12 knots.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 30 13 48 23 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 30 13 48 20 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 33 18 53 22 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 32 14 49 29 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 24 12 47 21 / 0 0 0 10
P28 29 14 47 24 / 0 0 0 10