000
FXUS63 KDDC 191239
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
739 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The 00z upper air analysis showed a split upper level flow pattern
over North America. The strongest westerly flow aloft extended from
the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes and New England.
Strong shortwaves in the flow were over Montana and the eastern
Great Lakes. Across the southern tier of states, closed lows were
located over southern California and in the Deep South. A mid level
ridge axis extended from Minnesota into southern Texas. At the
surface, a high pressure ridge extended from the Great Lakes into
eastern Texas. This ridge has kept rich Gulf moisture at bay over
the Gulf Coast with only modest moisture return into the central
High Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The Montana shortwave moves east into Manitoba by this evening. An
associated cold front will push south into the central High Plains
this afternoon, extending from west central into north central Kansas.
Model soundings show some limited instability along with some mid
level capping across much of southwest and central Kansas later this
afternoon. There should be enough convergence along the front for
some scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Precipitation chances should diminish through the evening hours with
the loss of daytime heating with any thunderstorms activity
basically ending across the area before midnight. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms could begin to ramp up again later tonight
as a low level jet strengthens and provides some weak moist advection
into south central Kansas.

The temperature forecast for today and tonight looks fairly
reasonable with only some minor adjustments.  We should see high
temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight
lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A couple of precipitation episodes are possible during the medium
range forecast period aided by a progressive shortwave pattern in
the westerlies. The first will be a vertically stacked 500 mb
trough, with surface reflection low moving through western Kansas on
Sunday. The GFS, ECMWF and SREF solutions handle the precipitation
quite differently but what is likely is at least numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms in this weak isentropic lift and weak to
moderate MUCAPE environment. A Northern High Plains surface high
will bring breezy to possibly windy conditions on Monday as the wave
deamplifies into the southern Mississippi valley and general
subsidence develops. Models show another wave moving through the
northern Rockies on Tuesday night into Wednesday as easterly
surface winds turn southerly following lee surface pressure falls. A
sharp dryline will develop across western Kansas Wednesday
afternoon, supported by both ECMWF and GFS, but with highly
different convective solutions at this time. In either case, severe
storms could be supported although the GFS is not as aggressive in
it`s CAPE and precipitation field.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 738 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR flight category is expected though at least early afternoon at
all sites, and probably through the TAF period. Eastern Colorado low
pressure will promote breezy southerly winds around 20 to 25 knots
sustained today with mixing allowing gusts into the upper  30s (kts).
It is plausible for a shower or thunderstorm to affect the GCK or
HYS terminal very late this afternoon or evening, but not high
enough a probability to include in the terminal grouping.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  56  75  52 /  10  10  60  20
GCK  82  54  71  50 /  20  20  60  20
EHA  79  51  67  48 /  20  30  50  10
LBL  81  53  73  51 /  10  10  50  20
HYS  82  57  76  57 /  20  40  70  20
P28  81  58  78  57 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell