Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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950
FXUS63 KDDC 240847
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
247 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

...UPDATE TO FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

Ridging aloft will move out of the Intermountain West into the
Western High Plains today while a west-southwesterly downslope
flow reinforces a fairly dry air mass across the region. As a
result, precip chances will remain absent from western Kansas
through tonight. An ongoing warming trend will continue through
today as a strengthening lee side trough across eastern Colorado
sets up a southwesterly flow across western Kansas. This will draw
warmer air into the high plains pushing highs well up into the
50s(F) to near 60F this afternoon. The draw of warmer air will
keep lows from dropping below the 20s(F) across much of the area
tonight with the lower to mid 30s(F) likely in extreme southwest
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 103 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

Medium range models indicate upper level ridging moving eastward
across the Central Plains Thursday while a southwesterly downslope
flow continues to reinforce the dry air mass across the Western
High Plains. Even with a cold front projected to push through
western Kansas Friday, precip chances will remain absent across
western Kansas through the weekend due to the lack of necessary
moisture. Well above normal temperatures can be expected Thursday
as a prevailing southwesterly flow continues to draw warmer/drier
air into southwest and central Kansas. Look for highs well up into
the 60s(F) Thursday afternoon with near 70F possible closer to
the Oklahoma border. A cold front pushing through western Kansas
Friday will end the warming trend but highs will remain above
normal with temperatures still reaching up into the 50s(F). Highs
should remain a little above normal into the early part of next
week as weak ridging aloft moves out of the Intermountain West
into the Western High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1101 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Wednesday evening.
Westerly winds 5 to 15kt will persist across western Kansas overnight
as a weak lee side trough of low pressure develops across eastern
Colorado. Winds will turn southwesterly 10 to 20kt mid to late
morning as the lee side trough further strengthens.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

A developing lee side trough of low pressure will bring about a
southwesterly flow today with winds becoming gusty this afternoon
as the trough strengthens. The gusty winds and low relative
humidity from drier air being drawin into the area will create
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Stronger winds
can be expected Thursday as the lee side trough deepens, drawing
much warmer/drier air into western Kansas. Significant fire
weather conditions are likely Thursday afternoon. An already
issued Fire Weather Watch has been expanded to include more of
south central Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  28  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  23  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  60  33  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  60  25  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  55  23  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
P28  58  32  66  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for KSZ061>066-074>081-
084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...JJohnson



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