000
FXUS63 KDDC 211700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Expect a hot, dry, and windy short term period as a strong upper
level long wave trough continues to ooze into the Western United
States. This system will in turn help strengthen surface troughing
along the KS/CO border. Strong southerly winds and low dew points
will be in place across far western Kansas by this afternoon
leading to critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag warning
was issued earlier today to account for this. Skies will be mostly
clear through tonight with southerly winds remaining breezy. As
for temperatures, highs today are expected to reach into the mid
to upper 90s with lows tonight ranging from the low 60s along the
KS/CO border to low 70s across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

A wet pattern is expected Friday through at least the early part
of next week as the upper level low/trough slowly moves into the
Central Rockies. Upper level shortwaves will move up and towards
the area as this system advances eastward. Storm chances will
start out first across far western Kansas Friday evening,
spreading eastward as we head through the weekend. Precipitation
chances then look to end from west to east as we head into the
first part of next week. Precipitation chances could continue into
the mid part of next week as models suggest another disturbance
moving through the area. However, confidence is low. As for
temperatures, highs in the lower 90s Friday then range from the
upper 70s west to around 90 degrees across central Kansas Saturday
and Sunday. Highs then plunge into the 70s Monday through the mid
part of next week as arctic high pressure builds across the area.
Lows will generally be in the 60s Friday and Saturday night then
down into the 50s throughout the remainder of the long term
forecast. Upper 40s could also be possible Monday and Tuesday
nights.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

VFR/SKC through this TAF forecast, with no cig/vis issues.
Some scattered cumulus possible along the dryline, mainly east of
the terminals, this afternoon. Aviation impacts will revolve
around winds and low level wind shear. Strong S/SW winds can be
expected at all airports this afternoon through 00z, gusting at
times near 35 kts. After 00z, winds will only slightly abate,
remaining strong and gusty overnight courtesy of a strong low
level jet. South winds will continue to gust near 25 kts all night
long, and with NAM forecasting 850 mb winds of 55-60 kts,
included LLWS in all TAFs for all terminals tonight. After 15z
Friday, strong south winds of 20-30 kts will quickly resume with
the onset of morning mixing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  70  92  69 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  96  67  92  66 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  93  63  88  63 /   0   0  30  40
LBL  96  67  91  67 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  96  72  93  71 /  10   0   0  10
P28  98  71  91  70 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner