Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 191926
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
126 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WITH LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THE STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO
ERODEN TODAY. THUS, TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM. LIGHT
FOG HAD PERSISTED ACROSS MY EASTERN COUNTIES OR BASICALLY WHERE
THERE WAS STILL SNOW COVER. THE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ERODE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BUT I HAVE DOUBTS THAT IT WILL
COMPLETELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO THE SOUTH, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN, MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE AND HOW QUICKLY THEY ERODE TOMORROW. THERE SHOULD
BE A BIT MORE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT THE ROCKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. OTHER THAN THE
CIRRUS PRODUCING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE, THERE
WILL BE SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE STRATUS
OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

A STRONG WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE CONFINED
TO EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT COULD CHANGE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE 850 MILLIBAR WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS OR SO DURING THE DAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND OUTPUT
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN KANSAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. WHILE THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM AND DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY. CONSENSUS
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES IS TO LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THERE HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
MORNING TO SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS EAST OF A LIBERAL TO HAYS LINE.
IT APPEARS THAT THE STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP ACROSS DODGE
CITY AND HAYS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CEILING HEIGHTS RISING ABOVE
1K FEET BY MID-AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  51  31  52 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  23  51  27  53 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  24  52  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25  52  30  54 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  25  50  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  51  35  52 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HUTTON


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