000
FXUS63 KDDC 101802
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
102 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

The large scale zonal flow pattern across much of the central and
northern CONUS will lead to continued lower-mid tropospheric
downslope conditions for the Western Plains today. A very warm lower
troposphere is already in place just off the surface (850mb
temperatures of +16 to +18C per the RAP analysis yesterday evening
across the northwestern portion of Kansas). Overnight temperatures
through 08Z have been rather mild with upper 30s to mid 40s quite
common across much of southwestern and west central Kansas. The
aforementioned very warm lower troposphere and a warm start to the
day will lead to the already advertised very warm afternoon. We went
ahead and adjusted the afternoon temperatures up another degree or
two with some 80-degree highs now forecast for the Hays area as well
as the Red Hills region near the Oklahoma border. 75 to 78F for
highs will be common elsewhere. Winds will be very light today with
the MSLP gradient quite relaxed across western Kansas thanks to
several mesoscale low pressure perturbations across the Western and
Central Plains embedded within a larger synoptic scale lee trough
across much of the Great Plains. An upper level trough will be
forming across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies late
tonight, and this will allow a more prominent surface low to form
across far northwestern Kansas. This will increase the pressure
gradient some overnight leading to increased overnight winds around
11 to 14 knots. Lows will again be fairly mild by early-mid March
standards in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave digging
southeast across the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains
Tuesday setting up precip chances for portions of western and
central Kansas late Tuesday afternoon and evening. A strong
attendant cold front ahead of the approaching system will push
southeast across western Kansas by Tuesday afternoon creating
ample forcing near the surface. Meanwhile, an +90kt upper level jet
axis is projected to shift southeast across western Kansas Tuesday
afternoon/evening as it streams northeast out of the trough axis in
the Desert Southwest. As a result, light rain is expected to develop
across some areas of central and western Kansas with a possible
brief switchover so snow overnight as the upper level system quickly
moves through. However, lacking moisture availability in the
lower/mid levels may hinder much in the way of measurable precip
across the area. Dry conditions are then likely through at least
Thursday as the flow aloft becomes more westerly while moisture
remains generally absent.

Temperatures will cool off quite a bit Tuesday as arctic air spills
southward into western Kansas in wake of the cold front moving
through by early afternoon. Although high temperatures are likely to
occur earlier in the day, highs are still expected up into the
50s(F) across central and west central Kansas with temperatures only
down into the 40s(F) first thing Tuesday morning. The lower to
possibly the mid 60s(F) are still likely across south central Kansas
before the front moves through. More seasonal temperatures are then
forecast through the end of the week as the flow aloft becomes more
zonal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

A weak surface trough will develop in the lee of the Rockies
though tonight, resulting in a resumption of southerly winds.
A strong cold front will pass across KGCK/KDDC/KHYS between
12-15z Tuesday, resulting in increasing northwesterly winds.
VFR conditions will persist in the absence of low level moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  40  57  26 /   0   0  20  10
GCK  76  39  55  24 /   0   0  20  10
EHA  77  41  58  26 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  77  39  58  25 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  80  39  55  26 /   0   0  30  30
P28  79  41  62  29 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Finch