


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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184 FXUS63 KDDC 130525 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1225 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal temperatures and above average humidity can be expected over the next week. - There are 40-50% chances for thunderstorms Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 After a cool day today, upper level ridging will develop over the southern plains by Sunday and Monday, resulting in a return to south winds and warmer weather. Highs will increase to the upper 80s Sunday, lower 90s Monday and mid 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. An upper level trough will traverse the northern plains Wednesday and push a cold front into Kansas by Wednesday evening. With plentiful moisture continuing to be in place, there are moderate to high chances for thunderstorms Wednesday night. The mid level jet stream will be north of Kansas, with 50kt high level winds reaching as far south as west central and central Kansas. Given the high level shear and frontal convergence, thunderstorm organization into a line appears likely. The ensemble mean rainfall from the EPS/GEPS/GEFS and ICON indicate modest amounts around a quarter to a half inch. The limited amounts are due to the brevity of the rainfall episode. However, as we typically experience in summer, amounts will be highly variable, with some locations getting a lot more or a lot less. Although high-end severe weather is not expected; it doesn`t take much at all on the high plains this time of year to get a 60 mph wind gust or nickel/quarter sized hail stone from an average thunderstorm. Slightly cooler weather can be expected in the wake of the front on Thursday, with highs falling back into the 80s to lower 90s. This cooling will be short-lived as upper level ridging re-develops across the southern plains. However, there is some spread in the ensemble members of the various models, with some showing less ridging than others. If the southern edge of the westerlies stays over Kansas, then fronts will occasionally pass through, with chances for thunderstorms. If the upper level ridge expands farther north (something that hasn`t happened consistently this summer), then very hot and dry weather would develop. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late afternoon. Light and variable winds through late morning will become southerly 5 to 15kt generally after 16-18Z as surface high pressure moves farther east through the Central Plains. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...JJohnson