Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301150
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
650 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Main issue this morning is unforecast fog. Visibilities continue
to crash and several sites have been at dense fog advisory. Have a
dense fog advisory along and east of Ellis to Comanche counties.
It might need to be expanded a bit west towards Dodge City, but
not sure of this just yet. Fog should erode around 9AM or so.

Otherwise, Summer continues with hot temperatures and southerly
winds. Smoke may hamper temperatures a bit, but winds will not be
from the northeast either. Lows will be in the 60s for Monday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ECMWF continues to trend less impressive with storm chances for
the first half of the extended. An upper level ridge along with
downslope low level southwesterly winds will lead to hot
temperatures with values well into the 90s. There might be a
slight chance of storms along the Colorado border Monday night,
however, chances are dwindling with neutral mid level height
rises. Wednesday could be hottest as winds are most downslope and
25-30C 850 temperatures are forecast. More of the same continues
for the rest of the week with broad southwesterly upper level flow
and low level troughing. Confidence is any model solution drops
off significantly towards the end of the period but the overall
synoptic pattern suggests hot.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

The ending of dense fog will be the main forecast challenge this
morning. Prevailing LIFR category fog conditions were carried at DDC
and HYS where conditions have oscillated  between one half and one
quarter mile the last few hours. 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery
indicates the fog bank is moving near gck as well, however this
occurrence is not yet certain. one the fog lifts mid morning VFR
category will prevail through the remainder of the day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  65  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  94  65  98  68 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  94  68  98  68 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  94  67  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  95  67  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
P28  95  70  98  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ031-046-
064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Russell



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