Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 010550
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
...Updated Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Next closed cyclone to affect SW KS weather looks quite healthy on
IR satellite imagery across Arizona this morning, with ongoing
convection SW of the Four Corners. All models have been
consistent forecasting this system to weaken dramatically as it
arrives in SW KS through this evening, degenerating into an open
shortwave. In fact, the 00z GFS run has largely dried up its QPF
fields and is forecasting little if any rainfall in SW KS this
afternoon and this evening. NAM/ECMWF are more optimistic
spreading light rain showers SW to NE across SW KS through this
evening, and to keep forecast continuity these wetter solutions
were used in the grids. Best opportunity for measurable rainfall
will be in the SW zones, nearest the approaching weakening system.
That said, even assuming the wettest solutions verify, most
locations will tally less than 0.20 inch of rainfall, paling in
comparison to recent rains.
Sunday will not be a very pleasant beginning to May. Low stratus
will persist most of the day, with sunshine minimal. With 850 mb
temperatures holding near a chilly +2C, and limited insolation,
afternoon tempeatures will struggle into the lower 50s, with
some SW locales holding in the upper 40s. This is a full 20
degrees below normal for the first day of May. North winds gusting
to near 30 mph will add to the chill, producing wind chills in the
30s and 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016
Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas Sunday night into
Monday, providing a chance of a few more scattered showers and
keeping temperatures still well below normal. The remainder of
next week will feature quiet weather with a pronounced warming
trend. Strong high pressure over Alberta Monday afternoon will
evolve into a sharp ridge over the Rocky Mountains Tuesday through
Thursday. Afternoon temperatures will warm several degrees each of
these days, although very wet soils will slow this process down
some. Friday will be the warmest day of this forecast, as high
pressure ridge axis spreads into Kansas. Models continue to
suggest a strong closed low entering the Desert Southwest Friday
and quickly eject northeast towards the CWA by Saturday afternoon.
This evolution would bring strong winds to SW KS late this week,
along with severe convective potential along the associated dry
line. Entering the peak of our severe weather season, and this
will be watched carefully over the next several days.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016
Organized closed cyclone over Arizona this morning will weaken
considerably to an open wave as it arrives in SW KS this TAF
period. Consensus of short term models spreads IFR/MVFR overcast
stratus cigs across all airports through Sunday morning. MVFR
stratus expected to persist the majority of Sunday. After 15z
Sunday, north winds increase with gusts near 30 kts. Expect -SHRA
to spread into SW KS by 00z Mon, spreading NE through 06z Monday.
Rainfall will be light, with little or no impact on aviation.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 37 51 39 60 / 10 40 40 20
GCK 37 52 37 60 / 10 40 40 20
EHA 37 48 35 57 / 20 60 40 20
LBL 38 49 37 59 / 20 60 40 20
HYS 38 52 38 61 / 10 10 30 20
P28 42 60 42 63 / 10 30 40 20