000
FXUS63 KDDC 282015
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
215 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST AT THAT TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AGAIN AROUND OR AFTER 00Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE TO IFR BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  31  20  38 /  70  60  20  20
GCK  19  31  19  40 /  60  30  20  20
EHA  24  33  21  45 /  30  20  30  20
LBL  24  34  22  43 /  50  30  20  10
HYS  20  35  21  39 /  40  30  20  20
P28  23  32  22  39 /  60  60  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD