000
FXUS63 KDDC 302048
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Dry upper level northwest flow will persist tonight into Thursday
behind the current exiting upper level wave and rain shield. Will
continue to decrease rainfall chances by this evening with only a 20
percent chance at Medicine Lodge early this evening. Skies will
partially clear tonight with partly cloudy skies on Thursday.
Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph this afternoon will decrease to
light and variable this evening into Thursday as surface high
pressure builds into western Kansas.

Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s to around 60 tonight
with highs warming back into the low to mid 80s on Thursday. Highs
may not warm as much as guidance with the wet soils.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A weak shortwave trough will be progressing southward into the
central plains on the back side of a large, upper level, Great
Lakes trough late Thursday. However, precipitation is not expected
across southwestern Kansas with this system given the lack of
instability and presence of surface high pressure. After this
time, upper level ridging will gradually build into western
Kansas, with minimal chances for rainfall. Surface winds will be
fairly light by western Kansas standard through Saturday, then
increasing to 10-15 mph by Sunday as a weak lee trough develops.
High temperatures will be mainly in the upper 80s, but perhaps
warming to around 90F by Sunday or Monday. Overnight lows will
rise from near 60F Friday to the mid to upper 60s by Monday and
Tuesday as low level moisture and surface winds slowly increase. A
shortwave trough riding over the upper level ridge may approach
western Kansas by Tuesday or Tuesday night, along with chances for
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

IFR cigs and light showers will end quickly across the TAF sites
by early afternoon as the large area of showers moves east. Expect
northeast winds of 15-25kt to decrease to light and variable later
this afternoon and overnight with VFR conditions.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  83  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  57  83  59  87 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  59  80  59  87 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  60  83  60  88 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  58  86  61  90 /  10   0   0  10
P28  60  83  61  89 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse