Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210707
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM CANADA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTED AS OF 2 AM ALONG THE
FRONT SOUTH OF DODGE CITY; AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY 5 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 10-15 KTS TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, ALONG WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD MAY PERSIST TONIGHT FROM
DODGE CITY SOUTHWARD; HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST
PLACES. IT IS TYPICALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER AT NIGHT DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION (3500-3800FT) AND
DRIER AIR. HOWEVER, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY APPROACH 10 KTS
IN THIS AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH BY MORNING SO
THAT LOWS MAY ACTUALLY BE COOLER IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COMPARED TO FARTHER WEST. WITH CALM WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 40S AT HAYS AND STAFFORD, TEMPERATURES AT THOSE LOCATIONS
MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

STARTING ON MONDAY, THERE IS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND IT WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS, AND HELP DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF
KANSAS MONDAY.  THAT SURFACE TROUGH WILL CHANGE INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.  THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD. THERE
WILL BE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POP CHANCES INTRODUCED INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO 50 TO 60
PERCENT POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELY
CHANCES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL WASH AWAY WEDNESDAY, BUT UPPER WAVES WILL
STILL BE CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THUS, THERE
WILL STILL EXIST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FOR CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY.  FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, SMALL POPS WILL
BE IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORTED CONVECTION
(ELEVATED).  BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE EAST OF WESTERN
KANSAS, AND THERE WILL BE A STANDARD LEE SIDE TROUGH FORMING BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.  SMALL CONVECTION
CHANCES WILL EXIST BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS,
JUST IN CASE THE LEE SIDE TRIGGERS SOME STORMS.

I DID NOT CHANGE THE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ANY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM 80F TO 85F DEGREES, AND LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 55F TO 60F
DEGREES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-14 KTS WILL PERSIST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND
23-00Z. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDDC THROUGH 08Z IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE STRAY
SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  52  80  57 /  10  10  20  40
GCK  79  53  77  58 /  10  10  40  40
EHA  80  54  75  58 /  20  20  30  40
LBL  82  54  80  59 /  10  10  30  40
HYS  77  51  76  55 /   0   0  10  60
P28  82  53  81  58 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...FINCH


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