Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 040752 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
252 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS WARM
LAYER AND WHERE AN AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THIS AS
NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA TO
NEBRASKA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE
HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES FROM THE RAP AND NAM INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 3000. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH
MODELS TO BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE, HOWEVER WEAK FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. STILL GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH HINTS OF A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
STONE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BASED ON THE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
850MB TO 800MB LEVEL THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND
6F WARMER COMPARED TO THE HIGHS YESTERDAY. HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR 95 DEGREES.

TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MEAN STORM MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST
YET AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND BY 12Z MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY 00Z
MONDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER 0-1KM FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM WERE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL
BE PRESENT LATE DAY BUT BASED ON EXPECTED HIGHS AM NOT COMPLETELY
ABLE TO RULE OUT A LATE DAY STORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.

BY 12Z MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ADVERTISED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND TIMING OF THE COOLER
SPREADING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IT APPEARS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT STAY FAR. BETTER COOLING EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES INDICATED HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COOL DOWN WILL END BY THURSDAY
AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE 5000 TO 1000FT AGL LEVEL WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BURF SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 20
KNOT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TREND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE GCK AREA
THROUGH 08Z. ELSEWHERE ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVLOP
OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
THEY WILL PASS DDC OR HYS AIRPORTS. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY ALSO APPEARS SMALL SO AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  69  96  70 /  20  20  10  40
GCK  91  69  98  70 /  20  20  10  40
EHA  95  70  97  67 /  10  10  20  30
LBL  94  70  97  70 /  20  20  10  30
HYS  90  69  98  71 /  20  20  20  50
P28  91  71  95  73 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT



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