Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 111411
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
911 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2014

...Update to synopsis...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

The 11.12Z 250-hPa upper air maps showed upper level ridging across
the Central Plains. At the lower levels, the KDDC raob warmed up quite
a bit from yesterdays sounding (24C versus 17C). This was in association
with the passage for a warm front. This boundary was located across
northern Kansas. Behind this boundary, drier air has worked its way
in with considerably lower sfc dewpoints versus yesterday across
SW Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

Upper level ridging will persist across the Central Plains
through the period. The outflow boundary that stretched across
southwestern Kansas Thursday was losing identity this morning and
the associated low level moist axis was being shunted back to the
east into central Kansas. A thunderstorm cluster progressing
across central and southern Nebraska this morning along the
southern extremity of the mid level westerlies was pushing an
outflow boundary toward northwestern Kansas. With persistent
surface troughing across the central high plains, all of
southwestern Kansas will be in the warm sector today since the
outflow boundary is expected to stall out across far northwestern
Kansas. Given the strong mixing, the marginal low level moisture
will become diluted in the vertical, resulting in negligible
surface based CAPE. Therefore, thunderstorms are not expected
through tonight. Given the surface troughing, winds will be from
the south, with the highest speeds during the strongly mixed
afternoon. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper
90s, which is a little cooler than the NAM 2m temperatures
suggest. The NAM continues to struggle this summer and has been
too warm with high temperatures. Temperatures tonight will be held
up by breezy south winds, with lows mainly between 70 and 73F.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

For Saturday, as an upper low over Central Canada begins to move
into the Northern High Plains, a weak surface trough will move into
central Kansas. Some moisture convergence along this trough could
lead to a few thunderstorms mainly from Syracuse to Garden City and
Hays into Saturday night. Highs will be warm and in the mid to upper
90s with lows around 70.

For Sunday into Monday, the upper low continues to build southward
forcing a cold front to move across Kansas and into Oklahoma on
Sunday. There will be only a slight chance for thunderstorms with
the front across western Kansas into Sunday night. Other scattered
thunderstorms will be possible behind the front on Monday with some
upslope flow and good moisture. Highs on Sunday will be not as warm
and around 90, with mid to upper 90s in the Medicine Lodge area.
Highs on Monday will be around 90. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday night, and low to mid 60s on
Monday night.

A much cooler period begins Tuesday into late next week, as the
aforementioned upper low and trough continues to build deeply
southward into the Great Lakes, adjacent Plains, and eastern U.S.
A large area of cooler surface high pressure will push into the
Central and Southern Plains with highs only in the 70s to around
80, and lows around 60. As surface high pressure moves east on
Wednesday and Thursday, upslope return moisture will develop into
the High Plains with a better chance for thunderstorms especially
over the high terrain of western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

As low pressure deepens in eastern Colorado, south winds will
increase to 15-28kt by mid morning. Winds then become light
south to southeasterly at 10-15kt after 01Z with only some high
level cirrus clouds through the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  71  96  70 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  98  70  96  70 /   0   0  20  20
EHA  98  70  96  72 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  97  71  97  73 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  98  72  95  69 /   0   0  20  30
P28  96  73  96  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse






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