Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 151804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
104 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

A weak shortwave trough over the central Rockies this morning will
move out over the central High Plains today. This will drag a
surface trough through much of western Kansas today. The result
will be a decreasing and variable winds today. We should also see
increasingly sunny skies as cirrus associated with the wave diminishes
and moves off to the east. High temperatures today should be some
3-5 degrees warmer than on Friday as low level warm advection
continues. The warmer airmass will also result in somewhat warmer
overnight lows tonight...mainly in the 50s. Areas of fog could
develop tonight mainly along and north of Highway 96 and 56 as
lighter winds and some low level moist advection sets up.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Strong westerly flow aloft is progged to continue across the western
and northern CONUS through the first few days of next week. A strong
shortwave trough will move from the West Coast into the northern
Plains Sunday night and Monday. In the wake of this shortwave, a
cold front will drop south across western Kansas Monday night.
After a few days of 90+ degree high temperatures through Monday,
cooler, more seasonal temperatures will be in store for Tuesday
through late week.

Around mid week, another strong shortwave trough is progged to
move out of the western states into the Plains, strengthening
somewhat at it does. By Wednesday night and Thursday, precipitation
chances will increase as the region comes under the right entrance
region of the upper jet and mid level frontogenetic forcing
increases as the wave moves out. It appears the best chances for
precipitation will be over central and portions of southwest
Kansas with smaller chances farther north over west central

The ECMWF and GFS diverge considerable after mid week in how the
upper level flow pattern evolves. The GFS depicts a wave break
over the central CONUS while the ECMWF keeps the upper wave open
and progressive. GFS ensembles are not in very good agreement
while the ECMWF has shown good run to run consistency. This adds a
lot of uncertainty to the forecast for the latter part of the
week but, at any rate, the central High Plains should be west of
any lingering precipitation that the GFS develops. Believe the
latter part of the week will be dry for southwest Kansas.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

There is increasing confidence in areas to widespread dense fog
development, affecting GCK, DDC, and especially HYS terminals late
tonight into early Sunday morning. The highest confidence of fog
will be farther northeast up at HYS, where dense fog could envelop
the terminal for more than 3 hours. The fog is likely to expand
south and southwest through the early morning hours, and reach GCK
and DDC just prior to daybreak. LIFR/IFR ceilings will hang around
through 15z with a rapid transition to VFR expected thereafter.
HYS could stay in IFR to MVFR ceiling through noon.


Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Increasing west southwesterly flow aloft and deeper mixing on
Sunday will bring much drier air out over southwest Kansas during
the day. The deeper mixing could bring gusty southwest winds to
portions of the area. There is still some uncertainty as to how
strong and how far east the gusty winds winds will get but it
appears that areas along and west of Highway 83 will be most
impacted. While there is still likely to be some lingering green
vegetation, a lot of grasses as well as corn and milo stubble have
cured out and dried. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch for that
area Sunday afternoon.


DDC  87  52  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  89  48  93  53 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  89  52  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  89  49  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  82  54  87  54 /   0   0  10   0
P28  86  61  89  62 /   0   0  10   0


Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.



LONG TERM...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.