Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 142338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
638 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

A longwave trough will continue to evolve across the western
United States through the weekend and then persist through all of
next week and into next weekend. Low level moisture was working
its way northward with 50s dewpoints in Kansas and 60s across the
southern plains. Individual disturbances will eject northeastward
out of this larger trough and progress across the central and
northern plains. One such disturbance will eject northeastward
Friday evening in a weakened state, helping to push a dryline
into far western Kansas. Well ahead of this disturbance this
afternoon, a narrow corridor of 1000 j/kg CAPE had developed in
far western Kansas along a surface trough and surface low pressure
induced by downslope flow. By late Friday afternoon the
disturbance will be already passing north and northeast of our
area so that the associated synoptic scale surface low reflection
will be well north of Kansas. Another disturbance will pass
across the northern plains Saturday night, helping to push a cold
front through southwestern Kansas during the day and into the
evening. This front will become stationary and then move back
north as a warm front into Kansas/Nebraska by Sunday and Monday.
There is some uncertainty as to how the large scale, upper level
pattern over the western United States and associated surface
features will evolve by mid to late next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

High based thunderstorms may develop along the Raton Mesa late
this afternoon and then move into far western Kansas this evening.
If any cells move into western Kansas, the main concern would be
wind gusts to 50 or 60 mph. Temperatures tonight will be held up
by breezy south winds with lows in the 60s. Friday will be hot
again as a dry line and downslope/thermal low set up across
western Kansas, with highs in the mid to upper 90s. There is only
a very small chance of a thunderstorm along and just ahead of
the dry line in the late afternoon, with gusty outflow winds the
main concern.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

There are small chances for thunderstorms, some possibly severe,
through the entire period through next weekend. However, it is
not possible yet to pinpoint where and when the best chances
would be. But simple pattern recognition, with a large upper
level trough to the west and increasing low level moisture from
the south, certainly means a greater than climatological chance
for thunderstorms and some of these could be severe. A similar
pattern in the spring would probably lead to greater severe
weather chances since lapse rates are stronger then. The fall
severe weather season is normally tame compared to the spring.
However, there have been significant tornado and large hail
events well into the fall; so it will be interesting to see what
happens over the next 10 days. Given the upper level troughing to
the west and southerly winds just about every day, temperatures
will generally stay warm to hot. With the front passing through
Saturday, the warmest temperatures ought to be in south central
Kansas. Sunday will likely be the coolest day with lows in the 50s
and highs in the 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Aviation weather will remain tranquil with respect to
ceiling/visibility as VFR will prevail. Strong south winds will
continue, however, with an intense low level jet leading to LLWS
conditions overnight tonight as the LLJ winds touch 50 knots at
times only a couple thousand feet off the surface. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms this evening are expected to remain
isolated enough such that probability of impact at any of the
terminals is too low to include in the TAF. That said, will make
any amendments should showers/storms make an approach. Surface
winds will again be fairly strong tomorrow afternoon with
sustained winds 17 to 20 knots, gusting to upper 20s knots.


Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Fire weather is a concern for Friday afternoon as a dry line
progresses into western Kansas. Winds should have no problem
reaching frequent 25 mph or greater gusts due to steep low
level lapse rates, down slope flow and a mixing down of stronger
winds. It is unclear just how far east the dry air will make it,
and what relative humidity values will be. A Fire Weather Warning
may be needed along the Colorado border where humidity values will
be in the 15 to 20% range. Opted not to issue any headlines yet
due to the localized nature of the area of concern, marginal
humidity values just above 15% and since other WFO`s aren`t
issuing any headlines.


DDC  68  97  66  90 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  65  98  62  86 /  20  10   0  10
EHA  62  94  61  86 /  20  10   0  10
LBL  66  98  64  89 /  20  10   0  10
HYS  68  96  68  85 /  20  10  10  10
P28  70  95  70  93 /  10  10  20  20




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