Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 291218
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Dry cold front with reinforcing surge of dry/cool advection
passing through SW KS as of midnight, and will clear the CWA by
sunrise. Some scattered to broken mid clouds, but that is it.
After sunrise, a chilly windy day is on tap. NW winds will ramp up
quickly after 9 AM, as boundary layer mixes with dry adiabatic
lapse rates up to near 700 mb by early afternoon. GFS forecast
soundings forecast NW flow near 35 mph at 700mb today, so gusts of
that magnitude can be expected. Cool/dry advection will continue all
day, with dewpoints holding in the teens west and 20s east. Cold air
advection will shave about 10 degrees off Monday`s readings, and
coupled with NW winds gusting around 30 mph, it is going to feel
like late November. In addition, models agree progging increasing
clouds this afternoon, with ceilings near 7k ft, as vorticity maxima
arrive in NW flow behind powerful Minnesota cyclone. With the loss
of sunshine this afternoon, most locations from Dodge City
northwestward will remain in the 40s this afternoon, with wind chill
factors in the 30s. NW winds diminish at sunset, but remain elevated
at 10-20 mph this evening. Partial clearing tonight with a NW wind
of 10-15 mph. Temperatures at sunrise Wednesday very near normal for
the last day of November, near 20 NW to near 30 SE.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

SW Kansas will remain dry Wednesday and Thursday, as large
powerful cyclone in Minnesota Wednesday morning ends up in eastern
Canada Thursday afternoon. NW flow will continue at all levels on
Wednesday, with NW wind gusts of 30-40 mph expected once again
during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Temperatures on
Wednesday very close to where they should be on the last day of
November, with afternoon highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Wind chill effects from the NW winds will result in apparent
temperatures near 40. Lots of sun, few if any clouds, on Wednesday
under dry, subsident NW flow.

Thursday...Dry. Temperatures change very little from Wednesday`s
readings, but it will be much more pleasant with much less wind.
Light and variable winds less than 10 mph under zonal flow aloft.

Friday...SW flow aloft returns to SW Kansas, as a strong jet max
dives into the Great Basin, carving out a new closed low in/near
Arizona by Friday evening. Warm/moist advection will blossom
across West Texas Friday afternoon in response, but the associated
rain/snow shield is expected to remain south of the KS/OK border
through 6 pm Friday. As such, kept grids through daylight Friday
dry.

This weekend...00z models coming into better agreement favoring a
more southerly storm track for the ejecting Desert SW cutoff low
Saturday through Sunday. SW Kansas will remain on the far NW
periphery of this storm`s influence, with the prospects of any
needed precipitation rather bleak. Operational 00z GFS still is
one of the most southern solutions, keeping SW Kansas completely
dry. 00z ECMWF does spread a period of warm air advection
stratiform rain/snow into the southern/SE counties Friday night
and Saturday morning. Out of respect for the ECMWF, wx/pop/sky
grids are weighted toward the ECMWF (and blended with southern
region WFOs AMA/OUN) to show chance pops for rain/snow. Even if
this comes to fruition, impacts would be minimal, falling on a
weekend morning, with amounts light and precipitation tapering off
quickly Saturday afternoon as warm air advection wanes.

Sunday...Dry. Strong trough axis exits east of us through Oklahoma
and Texas, with subsidence spreading over SW KS with few clouds
and moderating temperatures. Highs back to near normal (50).

Monday...Windy and warmer, with critical fire weather possible.
ECMWF forecasts strong lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado Monday
afternoon, resulting in strong S/SW winds and unseasonably warm
temperatures. Kept superblend highs in the 50s, but bias-corrected
00z ECMWF pushes highs to near 70 near Elkhart.

Afterwards next week, GFS forms another strong Desert SW cutoff
low. ECMWF suggests a harsh arrival of true winter weather, with a
potential snowstorm for SW KS Dec 7-8, followed by a true arctic
air invasion (850 mb temperatures down to -15C, afternoon highs
<20 next Thursday). Will be interesting to watch the models, lots
of possibilities next week!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Northwest winds will become established today and increase with
gusts up to about 35 knots at times in the early afternoon.
Cielings will not likley be a problem near GCK in this dry
relatively subsident pattern, but stratus behind the surface front
in Nebraska/SD may be an impact around HYS late in the TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Expect strong NW winds again late this morning through early this
afternoon, averaging 20-30 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph. Strong dry
advection will continue, keeping dewpoints in the teens and 20s.
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler today compared to
Monday, which will hold min RH values in the 27-37% range, well
above critical values. Still, strong NW winds will combine with
widespread dry fuels and moderate drought to keep a limited threat
of wildfire spread today. NW winds will continue on Wednesday.
Winds are expected to diminish to variable at less than 10 mph on
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  26  49  21 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  47  25  49  18 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  48  24  45  22 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  50  26  49  19 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  46  28  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
P28  55  29  52  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Turner



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