Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 150735
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
135 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Unseasonably moist boundary layer still hanging on across the
SE zones as of midnight, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s
and dense fog reported at Pratt. Surface high of near 1027 mb
centered over Wyoming as of midnight is headed our way, sending a
strong dry cold front through SW KS through sunrise. North winds
will be strong through the early morning hours, gusting over
30 mph at times. Strong dry advection with the incoming airmass
will sweep any stratus, fog and moisture out of the CWA by 6 am.

Wednesday...Sunny and pleasant with diminishing winds. 00z NAM
tracks the Wyoming surface high to near Hays by 3 pm, and winds
will diminish rapidly to light and variable by late afternoon.
With a much drier atmosphere, expecting few if any clouds,
although expect cirrus to be increasing from the west by 6 pm.
Afternoon temperatures par for the course for mid-November, in the
50s, except lower 60s SE of Dodge City.

Tonight...Dry and seasonably cold with passing cirrus. SEly return
flow establishes quickly as high pressure ridge migrates eastward.
Even with increasing SE/S winds through Thursday morning, with a
drier boundary layer, still expecting seasonably cold morning lows
in the 30-35 range.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

The extended stretch of dry weather will continue. After teasing
us with a possible pattern change yesterday, models tonight again
show no chances for meaningful precipitation in SW Kansas through
Thanksgiving.

Thursday...Windy and warmer. Lee troughing establishes under fast
zonal flow aloft. Afternoon temperatures warm back well above
normal, into the 60s, with lower 70s along the Colorado border.
South winds will average 20-30 mph with higher gusts.

Friday...Warm! All models now depict an impressive warm plume
spreading across the central and southern plains Friday afternoon,
south of a strong surface cyclone expected to be near Garden City
by 6 pm Friday. South and east of this surface cyclone, downslope
wind components, dry ground, and 850 mb temperatures of 20-22C
will allow for unseasonable, near record warmth. The record high
at Dodge City for November 17th is 80, and this forecast will be
predicting a new record high of 82. Mid to upper 80s are likely in
the typical downslope favored locations, such as Ashland and
Coldwater. With the surface cyclone traversing the CWA, the winds
will held in check, especially north of US 50. Still windy along
the Oklahoma border, but nothing extreme (gusts 40 mph). Will
still have to monitor wildfire potential across the southern zones
Friday afternoon, given the unseasonably warm temperatures and
persistently dry conditions and dry/dormant vegetation.

A strong cold front will sweep through Friday night. With 00z
ECMWF forecasting 850 mb winds of 40-45 kts, gusts of that
magnitude are possible with the frontal passage. The primary
shortwave with the trough passage will arrive Saturday morning,
with perhaps enough lift/moisture for some light rain/snow showers
across the northern zones. Significant precipitation is not
expected.

Saturday...Sunny but much cooler, with diminishing north winds.
Highs back in the 50s. ECMWF depicts the next surface high near
Liberal around 6 pm, so winds will be light by late day.

Sunday...Sunny and warmer, with south winds returning us to the
upper 50s and lower 60s.

Monday...Warmer still, in the lower to mid 60s, as the next
shortwave trough dives into Nevada. 00z ECMWF still evolves this
system into a closed low, but precipitation chances looks dismal
for SW KS. Another strong dry windy cold front will blow through
Monday night, but it appears the cutoff low will not have any
moisture to work with until it is buried in Texas well south of
us. Much colder weather is likely somewhere in the Monday/Tuesday
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Much improved flying weather through Wednesday. No cig/vis
concerns through this TAF forecast cycle; expecting VFR/SKC.
A dry cold front will sweep through the terminals through 12z
Wed, producing strong north winds, with gusts up to 30 kts.
Strongest north winds are expected right at sunrise Wednesday.
Winds will rapidly diminish through the afternoon hours, as a
surface high settles into SW KS by 21z. Expect winds to go light
and variable for several hours 21z Wed - 03z Thu, before light
SEly return flow develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  58  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  37  55  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  37  55  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  39  57  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  39  57  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  60  35  60 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner



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