Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 191950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT:

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DRIER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL, WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT. ANY WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. HAVE LOW GHOST POPS FOR MEDICINE LODGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TOMORROW:

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS - LOW 70S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN SOME TURBULENT MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO LOW OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIX
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THESE
SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AS
WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY 15-22 KT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE DOWN TO 6-12 KT BY 00Z. A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  74  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  74  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  73  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  49  76  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  47  73  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
P28  52  77  50  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.