Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 110907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
407 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014

...Updated Long Term and Fire Weather sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

Upper level northwest flow continues today above western Kansas with
west to southwest flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere.
Southeasterly winds are expected at the surface with a dome of high
pressure located east of the area and a trough of low pressure
developing across eastern Colorado. Mostly clear skies are
anticipated throughout the day with only a few high clouds. Highs
today will generally be in the upper 70s.

Winds shift to more of a southerly direction tonight. Moist air will
advect northward across the area as the night progresses with low
clouds on the increase after midnight, especially across south
central Kansas. Lows overnight will generally be in the mid 50s due
to the increased low level moisture.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

Weather elements of challenge in the forecast for this weekend
include: Hot temperatures (Saturday), critical fire weather,
where/if severe local storms form, severe weather threats, synoptic
wind speeds, falling temperatures (Sunday), rain chances, rain
amounts, rain/snow changeover timing, snowfall amounts, and finally
freezing temperatures now that the growing season is underway. Whew!

We will begin with Saturday.  The hottest day of the spring is
expected south of the Arkansas River with lower 90s likely,
especially across lower elevation areas of the Red Hills along the
Oklahoma border. A dryline will sharpen as boundary layer
convergence increases late in the day somewhere around or just east
of Dodge City. Despite the very warm 700mb temperatures of +8 or
+9C, with surface temperatures reaching the lower 90s, it may be
sufficiently buoyant enough in the boundary layer with the combined
convergence to overcome the cap and support deep, moist convection
(DMC). That being said, the best chance for sustained DMC will be
northeast of the surface low across central Kansas (including Ellis,
Rush, Stafford counties of the DDC forecast area). A dryline storm
may form as well due east or just southeast of the surface low where
we will carry 15 to 20 POPs down to the Oklahoma border east of Hwy
283. The deep layer shear profile looks to be fantastic to support
supercell storm structures, so this will be the preferred storm
mode, especially given anticipated isolated to widely scattered
nature of convection with such warm 800-700mb temperatures.  Very
large hail would be of greatest concern with 2-inch diameter or
larger hail possible if a supercell storm can thrive long enough as
it moves east into higher CIN air.

The first of two shortwave troughs will move east across West Texas
along the Red River Sunday, shifting the surface low east. Intense
low level cold air advection will follow across southwest Kansas
northwest of the surface low. We will see morning highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s (except warmer across south-central KS) with
temperatures falling through the 40s during the day on strong north
winds of 25 to 35 mph. We bumped up wind speeds just a bit, touching
wind advisory criteria (30 mph sustained), so a headline may be
necessary for wind Sunday. The 700mb frontogenetic/deformation zone
will be moving across western Kansas during the day Sunday and into
Sunday Night. This is when we will have the highest POPs in the
forecast for cold rain.  Precipitation amounts are expected to be on
the fairly light side, as the frontogenetic forcing will just not be
too strong given a strung-out deformation band.  The greatest
precipitation amounts will be across the Colorado border areas late
Sunday into Sunday Night. We will likely be seeing a cold rain
change to a wet snow during the afternoon hours out west with wet
snow continuing through much of the evening. We will have around a
half inch of wet snow accumulation in the western six counties
(along/west of Hwy 25). Sunday Night, cold advection will continue
with the airmass being cold enough to support temperatures falling
into the upper 20s on still fairly strong north winds. The greatest
concern for a hard freeze will be northwest of a Liberal to Dodge
City to LaCrosse line, so a headline for a hard freeze may be
required in future forecast updates as we approach this time frame.

The rest of the forecast beyond Sunday Night was left unchanged for
the most part as quiet weather returns. Afternoon temperatures will
rebound back into the 60s by Tuesday of next week as upper level
ridging moves into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

VFR conditions will prevail with broken high clouds above the TAF
sites. Winds will be light and variable overnight then from the
southeast at 10 to 15 knots by late morning as the atmosphere
mixes and the pressure gradient tightens.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

Critical fire weather conditions may develop across extreme
southwest Kansas west of the dryline which is forecast to set up
near Highway 283. The winds, however, west of the dryline are
expected to remain below the wind threshold for critical fire
weather and headline issuance. The exception would be near the
Oklahoma panhandle border areas from Elkhart to southern Meade
County. At this time, we will hold off on a Fire Weather Watch
issuance as it appears most of the critical fire weather concern
will be into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  55  86  55 /  10   0  20  10
GCK  79  54  85  54 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  81  54  85  53 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  80  55  88  55 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  78  54  81  55 /  10   0  30  30
P28  79  56  86  60 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid






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