Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231821
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12 MPH. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOT
AS COLD WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WARMER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS FROM TUMBLING AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING WESTERLY. HIGHS WILL
ZOOM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 8
CELSIUS WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE MIXING. THE ELKHART AREA MY BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE MID 50S WITH WINDS BLOWING OVER RESIDUAL SNOW PACK TO
THE WEST OF THEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTS EASTWARD
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING THE WEST COAST
RIDGE DIVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW IN THE VICINITY OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE FEATURES EVOLVE INTO A
SHORT LIVED REX BLOCK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD AIR IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY
QUICK RECOVERY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

THE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
60S AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED AS DOWNSLOPE WARMING
CONTINUES. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REX BLOCK
GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN KANSAS LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW BY LATE WEEK
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 12-22KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  58  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  57  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  53  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  28  56  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  28  58  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
P28  29  61  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...KRUSE



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