Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 090650

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday and Saturday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Noticeably milder tonight compared to recent nights, as NW flow
through the depth of the atmosphere is keeping the air mixed and
preventing strong radiational cooling. Scattered mid/high clouds
passing through in the northerly flow aloft also helping to slow
temperatures from falling. A NW breeze of 10-15 mph will be
maintained through sunrise, with temperatures gradually falling
back to the mid and upper 20s by sunrise.

Saturday...Sunny and milder. Few if any clouds in a very dry
atmosphere. NW winds will increase again after 9 am, but at speeds
much reduced from those observed on Friday, averaging 15-25 mph.
Given the full sunshine, exceptionally dry ground, a net increase
in 850 mb temperatures of +5C from Friday, and some NWly downslope
component, favored the warmest MAV guidance for afternoon max
temperatures. Expecting a range of mid 50s east, to upper 50s at
Dodge City, to near 60 along the Colorado border.

Very quiet weather continues Saturday night, with a clear sky and
again mid to upper 20s Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1250 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Not much else to say, that hasn`t been said before. It`s been dry,
it is dry, and it will stay dry for the foreseeable future.
Amazingly resilient PNA pattern will keep SW KS locked in dry NW
flow aloft, with 00z GFS/ECMWF both forecasting no precipitation
through at least December 18th. All pop grids are zero. Even the
dry cold frontal passages and temperature flucuations look minor
and not exciting, as the truly cold air stays to our east, and the
truly warm air remains locked to our west. In short, there just
isn`t much to talk about, and there won`t be, until this synoptic
pattern can be dislodged.

Sunday will be the pick day of the weekend and the whole week,
with the warmest temperatures of the forecast. Model guidance
continues to trend warmer, with 850 mb temperatures climbing into
the 10-12C range. Continued to lean toward the warmest guidance,
with all locations well into the 60s and approaching 70. The
record high at Dodge City for December 10th is 75, which looks
safe, but as dry as the ground is, I wouldn`t say it is impossible
to reach.

A strong Alberta clipper dives into the northern Mississippi
valley on Monday, forcing another dry frontal passage and
associated stronger north winds into SW KS. Little if any cold air
advection this far SW, so expect afternoon temperatures to remain
in the 50s and lower 60s Monday and Tuesday. Another shortwave
dives into Nebraska and eastern Kansas by late Wednesday. Again,
little cold air advection, but it keeps the warm air from moving
in too, so the net result is steady afternoon temperatures in the
50s with an another increase in north winds.

00z ECMWF suggests a strong warmup next Friday, as flow aloft
becomes more zonal and downslope components increase. ECMWF bias-
corrected guidance is much warmer than the model blend, and feel
60s and 70s are again likely.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

VFR through Saturday. Periods of scattered mid/high clouds tonight
passing by in the northerly flow aloft. NW winds through sunrise
averaging 10-12 kts. After 15z Sat, expecting SKC with an increase
in NW winds. Winds will be much reduced from those observed on
Friday, averaging 13-23 kts. Winds will once again subside quickly
at sunset.


DDC  23  57  29  68 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  20  57  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  59  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  24  57  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  26  54  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
P28  25  54  28  66 /   0   0   0   0




LONG TERM...Turner
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