Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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