Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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502
FXUS63 KDDC 300813
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
313 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

A wedge of surface high pressure will remain in place extending
from the Lake Superior region through the Southern Plains this
afternoon. Mainly sunny conditions are expected with the caveat of
cirrus today, as the surface high provides another day of
generally light easterly surface winds. Models indicate
temperatures not too far off from the highs experienced on
Thursday; in the low to mid 70s once again with warmer highs near
80 in the far southwest. The dry pattern continues into Saturday,
although temperatures should be warming into the upper 70s and low
80s. The weak upper ridging over the High Plains and Rockies region
has for a few model runs indicated the potential for a shortwave
moving through the flow later tonight. Still a relatively dry
environment across western KS as far as surface moisture, the NAM
with it`s 500+ J/kg MUCAPE continues to develop showers/storms
late Saturday overnight and maybe into early Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Following a warming trend into the mid 80s by Monday, a chance
for numerous thunderstorms exists in the Tuesday night- Wednesday
timeframe, at least for central Kansas counties. The the ECMWF and
GFS has been consistent in driving a strong upper low into the
northern High Plains. The pattern suggests it may be dry in the
far west with the focus for convective activity across the central
KS counties or I.E. Dodge and eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at
123 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016The weak upper ridging over the High

A dominant surface high pressure will continue to influence the
weather towards clear skies and light, mainly easterly/southeasterly
winds through this TAF period. Winds could gust to around 15 knots
at time on Friday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  51  77  54 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  77  51  79  53 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  82  53  81  54 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  79  53  81  55 /   0  10  20  20
HYS  72  49  76  54 /   0  10  10  20
P28  73  50  77  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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