Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 301700
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017
Any lingering light rain across central Kansas early this morning
will quickly dissipate as short range models show a closed off
low across far eastern Kansas shifting eastward into Missouri
while upper level ridging moves out of the Colorado Rockies into
the Western High Plains today. This will give the high plains a
break from precip chances through Thursday night. Although winds
will remain northerly through much of the day, warmer temperatures
are likely as cloud cover slowly scatters west to east through
this afternoon giving way to sunshine across extreme west Kansas.
Warmer air will begin to move into the far western reaches of the
state as a quickly developing lee side trough sets up a southerly
flow there by mid afternoon, pushing H85 temperatures well above
10C. Expect highs only up into the 50s(F) across central Kansas
where cloud cover will prevail longer to the 60s(F) in extreme
southwest Kansas where sunshine will break out earlier in the day.
Look for lows down into the 30s(F) tonight as clearing skies and
lighter winds allow for cooler temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017
Precip chances begin to pick back up late Friday as medium range
models show an upper level trough of low pressure dropping southeast
across the Pacific Northwest Thursday before closing off as it digs
further southeast into the Four Corners Region early Friday. This
will create an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the
Western High Plains while a surface low becomes more organized
across the South Plains in response to the approaching upper level
system. Although the GFS/ECMWF show a significant H5 vort maxima
exiting the trough axis and lifting northeast across the high plains
of eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas, only a modest amount
of moisture present within an easterly upslope flow will limit
instability. Short range model soundings generally indicate less
than 1,000 J/Kg of CAPE with a modest favorable shear profile.
Still, enough ingredients are present, including a +70kt upper
level jet exiting the trough axis, to support rainshowers, and
potentially thunderstorm development across the high plains Friday
night along and just north of a near stalled frontal boundary in
the vicinity of the panhandles. Precip chances will continue
through the day Saturday as the closed low is projected to move
slowly east across the high plains while an attendant cold front
pushes southward across western Kansas. Drier conditions are then
likely Sunday and Monday as the closed low opens up and kicks off
to the east, giving way to weak upper level ridging moving out of
the Rockies into the high plains.
Temperatures will remain fairly cool Friday with a prevailing easterly
upslope flow reinforcing a cooler air mass across the high plains.
Highs are expected generally up into the 50s(F) Friday afternoon with
a few lower 60s(F) still possible further south closer to the Oklahoma
border. Cooler air will filter southward into western Kansas in wake
of a cold front dropping highs to the 40s(F) across west central Kansas
with the 50s(F) still possible in south central Kansas. More seasonal
temperatures are expected going into early next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017
Stubborn MVFR stratus cigs will gradually erode from west to east
this afternoon, with VFR/SKC returning for several hours to the
airports. This will not last long, with high confidence that
IFR/LIFR stratus cigs will return to all terminals by 09z Friday.
Have less confidence with reduced vis at surface with BR/fog. On
the one hand, moist surface and boundary layer from recent
rainfall will enhance advection fog potential through Friday
morning. However, increasing upslope easterly flow will tend to
keep boundary layer mixed and reduce vis restrictions. Split the
difference in the TAFs with modest reductions in vis and BR. Winds
will become easterly and increase in velocity through Friday
morning. After 15z Friday, expect gusty east winds at 20-30 kts at
LBL, GCK and DDC.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 35 58 40 / 0 0 0 70
GCK 63 37 55 40 / 0 0 10 80
EHA 66 38 59 38 / 0 0 10 60
LBL 66 37 60 42 / 0 0 0 60
HYS 53 36 53 40 / 10 0 0 80
P28 55 36 61 46 / 10 0 0 40