Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 140852
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

...Updated for short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

An upper level trough will dig into the upper Midwest today, with
the associated cold front passing through western Kansas between
18-22z. Thunderstorms will develop along the front from Ulysses
to Dodge City to Stafford in the early afternoon and then progress
southward through the remainder of the afternoon. Low level shear
will be weak, but winds above 700mb will be fairly strong from
the northwest by July standards. Any storms that develop will
quickly progress into Oklahoma later in the afternoon. Surface
based CAPE will be marginal (1000-1500 j/kg). Hail to the size of
quarters and wind gusts as high as 60 mph will be possible with
the strongest storms. High temperatures will be around midday at
Hays and early afternoon at Dodge City and Garden City. Tonight
should be fairly dry after the thunderstorms exit late this
afternoon. Some clearing should allow temperatures to fall into
the 50s, especially in central Kansas around Hays. In far western
Kansas, an increase in cloud cover may prevent temperatures from
really bottoming out, despite the fairly light winds.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

On Tuesday, another shot of cold air will plunge south through the
plains in form of a second cold front.  A short wave aloft will be
rippling southeast through the northwest flow aloft.  The upper low
over the Great Lakes will dive southward Tuesday, as the Nevada upper
high pressure area relaxes and migrates back to the southwest. This
will allow numerous short waves to travel over the high pressure
ridge and southeast through the plains.  This will give southwest
Kansas fairly good chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Pops on Tuesday will start in the 30 to 40 percent chance range in
our southwest zones near Elkhart, and then progressive move
northeast in the day as more upper level support moves in.  There
will be 40 percent chances southwest of a Ness City to Coldwater
line, with 30 percent chances northeast of that line Tuesday.  That
cold front could push northward Tuesday night, but stall as a
stationary front across our CWA.  A rather significant upper level
wave will move through western Kansas Tuesday night.  For these
reasons, likely 60 to 70 percent chances seem appropriate.  This
precipitation will be more showery than convective, so a lot of
rainfall is not forecast.

That upper short wave trough will continue to move eastward, but 50
to 60 percent PoPs are justified for Wednesday.  Wednesday looks to
be the coldest day, with highs from 65F degrees in the Scott City
area, ranging to 75F degrees in the Medicine Lodge area.  Some
record low maximums could be reached somewhere, but at first glance,
DDC`s record low max for July 16th is 68F and I am forecasting 69F;
GCK`s record low max is 58F with a forecast high of 68F; and Medicine
Lodge has a current low max record of 69F with a forecast of 71F.
Either way, Wednesday will feel cool to a lot of people, especially
with the rain considered.

Thursday will still see some 20 to 30 percent chances for showers
and isolated thunderstorms, as upslope low level flow will be
feeding in the the vorticity still moving southeast over head.  The
chances will go down by Thursday afternoon, and will be gone by
Thursday night.  Thursday should still be relatively cool, with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.  Skies will start clearing out
Thursday night, and surface winds will return to southerly.  Max
temps Friday will climb into the mid 80s in most locations.
Saturday will be a warm blast, and Saturday afternoon temperatures
will soar into the lower 90s.  Yet another upper short wave will
enter from the northwest, and a surface lee side trough will advance
from Colorado into Kansas from Saturday into Sunday.  Lower 20
percent chance Pops will be across our west on Friday night, then
increase to 30 to 40 percent Saturday night as an upper wave
passes through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

A cold front will pass through the TAF sites between 18-21z, with
a wind shift from light to northeasterly at 15 kts. CIGS/VISBYS will
generally be VFR, except for perhaps briefly lower in
thunderstorms along and just behind the cold front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  56  76  55 /  30  20  30  60
GCK  88  58  75  55 /  30  20  30  70
EHA  90  58  75  58 /  30  20  30  60
LBL  90  58  76  57 /  20  20  30  70
HYS  86  54  75  54 /  20  10  20  60
P28  92  60  78  57 /  30  30  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Finch






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