Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 281811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1211 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING, AND A DEEP, COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
NORTHWEST ALBERTA TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO LONG ISLAND WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST, AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WAS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ZONAL IN CHARACTER. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERLIES FLOWING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WAS PRODUCING PLUMES OF
MOUNTAIN ENHANCED CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS THAT WAS THINNING AS IT
PROPAGATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LARGE PLUME OF ANOMALOUSLY
WARM AIR RESULTING FROM DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
COVERED THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH H8 TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS +17C AT
DDC AND +19C AT GCK. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR COVERED SOUTHERN CANADA
WITH H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR -20C ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. AT
THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE IN
MONTANA ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND DEWPOINTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 DEGREES WERE CONFINED TO SOUTH TEXAS. NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MOSTLY THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE 10% TO 20% RANGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 283, BUT WINDS WILL BE
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN BREAKING DOWN AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO
WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE, DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH PUSHES INTO
EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WITH THE NAM/GFS SHOWING H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS(C). AGAIN, WITH THE HELP OF A DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO
THE LOWER AND MID 70S(F) IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE
30S(F).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

A NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY, THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING TAKES PLACE FROM TUESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT ONE MORE WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WEST NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER TO 70 TO 73 ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE FORECAST WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAVE PUSHED HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE DUE TO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.

FOR SUNDAY, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS
BEGINNING IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY THEN ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN
KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM ONLY AROUND
35 DEGREES AT HAYS, TO AROUND 40 AT GARDEN AND DODGE, TO 50 AT
MEDICINE LODGE, AND THE WARMEST FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL IN THE 50S
TO AROUND 60. WILL MAINTAIN A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. HAVE USED THE NAM 2
METER GUIDANCE FOR BEST GUESS OF SURFACE TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A SLIGHT MODIFICATION AGAINST NEIGHBORS. LIBERAL MAX TEMP COULD BE
THE MOST DIFFICULT AS NAM GUIDANCE ONLY HAS A HIGH OF 35, VERSUS THE
MAV GUIDANCE OF 54. AT ANY RATE NOT AN EASY FORECAST WITH THESE
ARCTIC COLD FRONTS AND SURFACE TEMPS. NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO
35 MPH WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS.

FOR MONDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK, A WARMING TREND LOOKS GOOD, WITH
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 30 TO 35 ON MONDAY, WARMING TO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN 50S INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
THE COLDEST MONDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS, THEN WARMING INTO THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS WITH
BASES AOA250 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH SATURDAY, AND SKIES IN WESTERN KANSAS
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS. AT
THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MONTANA WILL PROGRESS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY NOON SATURDAY, AND AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, VEERING TO THE WEST SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  72  35  42 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  35  72  32  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  35  75  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  35  74  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  33  69  30  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  33  70  35  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUTHI
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUTHI



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.