Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271745
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1245 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Convective debris from last night`s thunderstorms is clearing
nicely this afternoon, with E/SE upslope flow expected to
reestablish by this evening. 12z NAM, and several of the CAMs,
develop thunderstorms in NW KS by 7 pm, with a loosely organized
complex then heading south into the northern CWA this evening.
Surface moisture is quite elevated, with a dewpoint of 70 here at
the office as of noon, with a dewpoint of 70 as far west as
Syracuse. MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg widespread across SW KS already as
of noon. So, instability will be more than sufficient to sustain
another storm complex tonight. Easterly surface winds beneath
modest NW flow aloft should allow for some storm rotation, at
least initially. SPC`s broad marginal 5% wind/hail probabilities
through tonight look sufficient for now, but the risk for
marginally severe hail/wind will increase whereever the complex
decides to evolve. Increased thunderstorm coverage in the grids
this evening and tonight, to account for the mesoscale CAM and NAM
solutions. Lows tonight ranging from the mid 60s in Hamilton
county to the lower 70s in Barber county.

Thursday...Overnight convection expected to dissipate by around
sunrise. Most locations dry for most of Thursday again, as
atmosphere again recovers from overnight convective overturning.
Strong 597 dm upper high will remain stationary over the Great
Basin Thursday, allowing NW flow to persist aloft. Synoptic
pattern strongly favors a strong MCS to traverse SW KS, and the
models have been hinting at this for several days now. Shear and
instablity combination will ignite severe thunderstorms across
NW KS by 7 pm Thursday, with a severe MCS expected to track SE
into SW KS Thursday evening. Damaging winds appear likely, and
agree with SPC upgrading to an enhanced severe risk for this
severe wind threat. Outdoor activities Thursday evening will be
impacted by these strong to severe storms, including Dodge City
Days festivities. Will begin social media and DSS coverage of this
expected MCS to begin spreading the word.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Models remain in good agreement with keeping a northwest flow
over the central plains through early this weekend as an upper
level high remains nearly stationary across the southwestern
United States. Several upper level waves embedded in this
northwest flow are still forecast to cross the Central Plains late
this week and early this weekend. Given the instability and lift
present ahead of each of these upper waves there will be at least
a slight chance for thunderstorms from late Thursday through
Saturday night. Thursday night still appears to be the time frame
when the better opportunity for widespread convection will occur
across western Kansas based on the location of the moisture axis
present just north of a surface boundary from northeast Colorado
to south central Kansas, and the location of a mid level
baroclinic zone. The GFS precipitable water forecast of 1 to 1.5
inches at 00z Friday suggest that heavy rainfall will be a concern
from these storms Thursday night. In addition to the heavy
rainfall strong winds and hail will also be a possible early in
the event Thursday night.

The area more favorable for convection will begin to shift east
Friday and Saturday as mid level temperatures warm and the upper
level ridge axis starts to shift slowly east towards the central
and northern Rockies. As the chance for precipitation begins to
decrease the temperatures will begin to slowly climb through the
90s. A gradual warming trend is expected to begin this weekend and
continue through early next week. Afternoon temperatures are
expected to warm from the 90 to 95 degree range on Saturday to
the upper 90s to near 100 degrees early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

VFR this afternoon with scattered clouds and a prevailing SE wind
at 10-15 kts. Scattered thunderstorms expected to increase in
coverage this evening, with 12z NAM/GFS both forecasting a
convective complex near HYS by 03z Thu, and near DDC/GCK by 06z
Thu. Added convective TEMPO groups for GCK/HYS for the 03-07z time
frame, where confidence is highest for convective impacts. Some
of these storms will be strong, producing outflow wind gusts to
near 45 kts and temporary IFR in cigs/heavy rain. Models agree
thunderstorms will end by 12z Thu.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  69  92  67 /  10  40  40  50
GCK  93  66  92  66 /  10  40  40  50
EHA  94  67  96  66 /  10  20  20  30
LBL  96  69  97  68 /  10  20  20  30
HYS  92  67  89  66 /  20  50  60  60
P28  94  72  95  71 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner


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