Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250609
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
109 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM STRETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.
UPPER 80S APPEAR LIKELY, APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS (89F IS THE RECORD
HIGH AT DODGE CITY SUNDAY). THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY, THOUGH, AS
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
OFFSET WARMING FROM DIRECT INSOLATION. THE COOLER ECMWF WAS FOLLOWED
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONGER INITIAL COLD ADVECTION. LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE 700MB
FRONT, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT 700MB AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING BACK UP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S, WHICH IS REFLECTED ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ARIZONA.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE LIKELY WITH A
NEAR-ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM SHIFTS WELL BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 10-16KT AFTER 18Z AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO. TONIGHT THE
WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 10KT WITH DECOUPLING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  54  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  86  49  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  85  53  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  86  53  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  82  52  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  59  90  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE



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