Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

A strong upper level trough was approaching the high plains this
morning and will eject across western Kansas in negative tilt
fashion this afternoon and tonight. Surface low pressure over west
Texas is expected to move into southern Kansas by tonight.
Plentiful low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico was
available. Elevated CAPE north of the front was resulting in
widespread thunderstorm activity, some of which was close to being
severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will persist through late this
afternoon and then taper off from southwest to northeast tonight.
Localized rainfall amounts could exceed 3 inches in a few places,
with many places receiving an inch or greater. Temperatures will
be held down into the lower to mid 40s today in western Kansas,
with some lower 50s in south central Kansas. Temperatures will
fall into the 30s in western Kansas tonight, and some places
could see readings close to the freezing mark if there are any
breaks in the clouds. The best chance of the near-freezing
temperatures is in far southwestern Kansas. A special weather
statement was issued highlighting the potential for the cold
temperatures. Later shifts can assess whether a frost advisory is
needed.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Another upper level system will approach western Kansas by Sunday
but this system will be more progressive and weaker than the
current system. Some rain is possible from Sunday afternoon into
Monday but heavy amounts are not expected. Temperatures will
remain on the cool side through Monday; but a slow warming trend
is likely by Tuesday. Upper level ridging is expected to develop
over the western high plains by late week, allowing high
temperatures to rise well into the 70s. The next chance of rain
will be late next weekend as another large upper level trough
develops over the western United States.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Very poor flying conditions will continue through 06z Sat, with
widespread RA, occasional -TSRA, and IFR/LIFR cigs in stratus.
Reduced vis in BR/RA/FG. Strong NE winds will continue as well
through 00z, gusting near 30 kts. Very gradual improvements in
flight categories expected to begin around 06z Sat, as closed low
begins to lift away from SW KS and rain ends. Sfc winds back NW
behind the departing storm system, with MVFR stratus persisting
well into Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  37  59  39 / 100  70  10  10
GCK  43  35  56  38 / 100  60  20  20
EHA  47  33  56  36 /  80  30  10  10
LBL  49  36  58  38 /  90  30  10  10
HYS  48  38  57  39 /  90  90  30  20
P28  59  43  66  44 /  90  70  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner



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