Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220642
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
142 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, AND THEN A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND
13-15KTS THIS MORNING, AND SOUTHWEST AT 15G25KT LATER TODAY.
CONVECTION WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 22Z AT GCK, 23Z AT DDC AND 01Z AT
HYS. THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TOO STRONG AND SHOULD ONLY REDUCE
CIGS TO BKN030-040.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  53  77  53 /  40  50   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  73  49  78  51 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  75  52  79  52 /  30  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  73  52 /  60  70   0   0
P28  77  56  79  55 /  40  50   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE



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