000
FXUS63 KDDC 101710
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1110 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper
level shortwave moving quickly east across the Ohio River Valley.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level shortwave is dropping southeast
across southern Canada. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough
of low pressure is slowly strengthening across extreme eastern
Colorado. A small amount of moisture has returned to the area
with surface dewpoints back above 0F across west central Kansas
to near 10F in south central Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

A fairly welcomed change has developed over the plains today.  Cold
high pressure will keep clear skies going for today, along with the
high pressure slipping off the east.  A surface low pressure area
will form this afternoon in southeastern Colorado, which will switch
the surface flow to the south and bring some warm(er) air into
southwestern Kansas. Nearly all short term models are forecasting
this low pressure development, so I have a fairly high confidence
in this forecast for elevated max temps. The southwest corner
near Elkhart and Liberal could reach the mid 40s by late
afternoon. A zone of high temperatures around 40F degrees will
result from Syracuse to Dodge City to Coldwater. Northeast of this
zone, in the Wakeeney to La Crosse to Saint John areas, highs will
reach the upper 30s. After many days with max temps in the teens
to lower 20s, the upper 30s to mid 40s will likely seem warm to
most of the southwestern Kansans.

Clear skies will continue tonight, with winds becoming northwest and
bringing cold air back into western Kansas.  Winds will get a bit
breezy with speeds averaging 10 to 15 mph, and with gusts to 25
mph.  Temperatures will fall fast tonight in the dry, clear
pattern.  Minimums should range from near 9F degrees in the the
Scott City area to around 15F to 16F degrees along the Oklahoma
border.  Given the wind speeds, wind chill indices will drop to
around -1F in the northwest from Syracuse to Wakeeney, and range
upward to around 4F in the south from Coldwater to Medicine Lodge
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

Wednesday:

We will see maximums only in the 20sF on Wednesday in the wake of a
cold front. Ongoing forecast temps look on track and saw no reason to
deviate. High pressure will shift off to the east by evening with southerly
winds developing on the backside of the high.

Thursday and beyond:

Sfc lee troughing will develop Thursday ahead of the next upper level
low/trof located well to the southwest. 850 hPa temps will increase
in the warm air advection pattern to near 5C. There won`t be much mixing,
but maximums in the 40sF look reasonable.

Watching to see how the aforementioned wave evolves in the deterministic
runs. The models are trending the vortmax to remain south of the region
to just clipping south central Kansas. The ECMWF shows wave breaking
occurring east of the region over time. As a result, most of the lift
and dynamics will remain east and southeast of the region. Will leave
the slight precip chances across south central Kansas that the weighted
blend solution produces alone. Have my doubts about precip. There is
enough warm air advection to produce rain or snow.

Beyond that, the forecast remains precipitation free as northwesterly
flow aloft continues. Temperatures will trend to near normal by the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Wednesday morning. Lee side trough will slowly strengthen in
eastern Colorado this afternoon turning southwesterly winds
more southerly 10 to 15kt through this evening. A cold front
will then push southward across western Kansas later tonight
turning winds northerly 10 to 20kt generally after 04Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  40  13  28  13 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  40  12  27  13 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  46  15  28  18 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  45  15  29  15 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  38  12  26  12 /   0   0   0   0
P28  38  15  30  14 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson