000
FXUS63 KDDC 312303
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
603 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Dry northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the Central Plains
into Friday. A few stray showers, however, may make into the far
west later, near the Colorado border, tonight and Friday, but kept
chances below 15 percent. A weak disturbance may also bring a few
showers or isolated thunderstorms to parts of south central Kansas
from Hays to Medicine Lodge after midnight but current thinking is
the probability is too low to put into the forecast. Forecast
soundings showing some increasing mainly high level cloudiness
towards midnight into Friday so pushed up cloud forecast a bit. Weak
low pressure at the surface will slide into north central Kansas by
morning with light and variable winds becoming light south to
southwesterly. Winds then become light and variable again on Friday.

Overnight lows will be around 60, slightly warmer than last night
due to more high level cloudiness expected. Highs on Friday will
warm into the mid to upper 80s as 850mb temps warm. Have kept
previous forecast as wet soils could keep highs lower than
guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Weak upper level ridging will shift eastward across the southern
high plains by Saturday into Monday. With the lack of upper level
support and little to no surface based CAPE, precipitation is not
expected trough this period aside from an isolated, late PM shower
or two late Sunday or Monday. Temperatures will be near or
slightly below climatology through early next week despite the
weak upper level ridging owing to all the vegetation in this
milder summer. Surface winds will gradually increase to 10 to 15
mph by Sunday and Monday as weak lee troughing develops along the
high plains. A shortwave trough riding over the upper level ridge
may approach western Kansas by Tuesday into Wednesday, along with
chances for thunderstorms. Wednesday could be the warmest day
ahead of the associated cold front depending on how widespread
cloud cover or rainfall becomes. Temperatures ought to fall to
slightly below climatology by later next week in the wake of the
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Friday
afternoon. Winds will remain light and variable through the period
as surface high pressure moves very little across the Western High
Plains tonight into Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  88  63  88 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  62  87  61  87 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  61  85  61  84 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  61  88  62  87 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  62  90  62  90 /  10  10  10  10
P28  62  89  66  89 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...JJohnson