Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271134
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
634 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS CONVECTION LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES BEING ACHIEVED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER APPARENT TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS INITIALLY HEAVY RAINS AND NOW STRATIFORM
RAINFALL OVERSPREADS THE K-96 AND I-70 CORRIDORS. THE LATEST SHORT
TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS WERE FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION  SOUTH OF THE ARK RIVER WEST OF HIGHWAY 283, HOWEVER THE
RADAR TREND AT THIS TIME IS NOT FAVORING THE SAME SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER
THE OUTFLOW WILL EXPAND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE, THIS MORNING. MCS
ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE DIURNAL HEATING
DEVELOPS CLUSTERS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THAT MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LITTLE OVERALL ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST .
THE PERIOD IS STILL CHARACTERIZED BY THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH A BROAD UPPER  HIGH EXTENDED  ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  PLAINS AND
A RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXTENDING INTO KANSAS. A
BETTER CONVERGENCE/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION I THE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, BRINGING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA, WHICH WILL HAVE EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES  FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN. OPPORTUNITIES  BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME MAY
DEPEND  MORE ON NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET PROCESSES WHICH WILL BE HIGHLY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK DOES APPEAR COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS BOTH FROM MODEL
AND MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  74  99  69 /  20  20  30  50
GCK  96  72  95  67 /  20  10  30  50
EHA  98  70  95  66 /  20  20  30  50
LBL  98  74  98  69 /  20  20  30  50
HYS  97  76  96  68 /  20  20  30  50
P28  97  76 101  72 /  20  10  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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