Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250741
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
241 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Early this morning the first in a series of upper level
disturbances will cross southwest Kansas. Widespread convection
ahead of this first upper level wave will lift northeast and east
by late morning. Low clouds which had already developed behind a
slow moving cold front in southwest Kansas will be slow to erode
early today, even with the passage of the upper level trough based
on the low level moisture profiles from the NAM and GFS model
soundings. Some breaks in the clouds however are not out of the
question, especially given the quicker movement of the upper level
trough early this morning. Still any breaks that do occur
currently appears to be mainly confined to portions of southwest
Kansas. Given that some sun may develop early this afternoon am a
little cautious in undercutting guidance too much today. However
if the clouds hold on the highs may struggle to climb much more
than the lower 70s.

After the brief break in the precipitation early today another
upper disturbance will begin to approach south southwest Kansas.
Moisture and lift will be present late day and overnight along and
north of a surface boundary that will become nearly stationary
across the panhandle of Texas and northwest Oklahoma. As this next
upper level system encounters this rich moisture and lift the
chance for convection will once again improve, especially across
south central Kansas. At this time it appears that severe weather
today will be focused near and south of the Oklahoma border but
still if a few of the stronger storms hold together this evening
as they move north there is a chance for some gusty winds or even
some hail early tonight. Given the uncertainty of the exact
location of where this surface boundary will be late day will
mention of gusty winds up to 60 mph and nickel size hail being
possible with the stronger storms early tonight south of a Elkhart
to Dodge CIty to near Larned line. Heavy rainfall will also be an
issue given 00z Friday precipitable water values ranging from 1.25
to near 1.5 inches east of highway 83.

At this time given where the better chances for convection will
be through tonight and high precip water content the latest WPC
precipitation forecast looks on track. 12 hour QPF values of 1 to
1.25 inches will definitely be possible in south central Kansas
between 00z Friday and 12z Friday. Locally higher amount will also
be possible with any of the stronger storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The chance for precipitation will continue from Thursday night
through the weekend period as more upper level troughs cross the
Central Plains and the stationary front, located in the Panhandle
of Texas today lifts north across western Kansas. In addition to
the chance for convection over the weekend period there will be a
slow and gradual warming trend. Highs will comb from the upper 70s
to lower 80s on Friday to the upper 80s to around 90 over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

HRRR, NMM,ARW, and NAM were all in good agreement with low level
moisture increasing overnight north of a cold front which will be
moving from extreme southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and
the Panhandle of Texas. 5z surface observations were already
supporting this with increasing in MVFR and IFR conditions already
developing southwest Kansas. These low clouds will be slow to
erode early Thursday morning but ceilings are expected to improve
into the low VFR category Thursday afternoon. Widespread
convection is expected overnight as an upper level disturbance
lifts from northeast New Mexico into southwest Kansas. This area
of precipitation will begin to taper off from southwest to
northeast early this morning. Winds will be north to northeast at
around 10 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  60  80  64 /  40  40  40  30
GCK  76  59  78  61 /  40  30  40  40
EHA  78  57  80  62 /  20  30  30  30
LBL  80  60  81  63 /  20  50  40  30
HYS  72  58  77  62 /  40  40  50  50
P28  81  64  84  68 /  50  70  30  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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