Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180720
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
220 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Precip chances will shift south and east today as an upper level
shortwave slides southeast across the Upper Midwest, sending an
attendant cold front across western Kansas early to mid afternoon.
While drier air filters into far western Kansas behind the front,
ample moisture will remain ahead of the advancing boundary within a
prevailing southeasterly flow. Significant instability, steep low
level lapse rates, and increased convergence in the vicinity of the
front will support thunderstorm development late this afternoon and
evening...primarily across south central Kansas. Considering the
presence of a +70kt upper level jet, favorable shear profiles, and
CAPE values in excess of 3000 to 3500 J/kg, any developing storms
will certainly have the potential of becoming severe with large hail
and damaging winds the main threats. Otherwise, quieter conditions
are likely across the remainder of western Kansas as drier air
filters into the region behind the front.

Fairly warm temperatures are expected today as an approaching cold
front is slow to push through western Kansas. A southwest and
eventually a westerly downslope flow will set up across southwest
Kansas drawing warmer air into the area. Should expect to see highs
reaching the lower to mid 90s(F) this afternoon. Look for lows back
down into the 60s(F) tonight under mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Although not overly significant, precip chances across western Kansas
do continue each day of the weekend as a modest westerly flow aloft
prevails across the Western High Plains. A quickly returning southeasterly
upslope flow and sufficient moisture/instability will set the stage
for potential thunderstorms in the vicinity of a lee side trough each
day as low/mid level lapse rates steepen each afternoon. A more significant
chance for thunderstorms returns to western Kansas early next week as
medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough kicking
out of the Northern and Central Rockies and ushering a cold front into
the western part of the state sometime late Monday into Tuesday. Fairly
seasonal temperatures can be expected each day through Monday with
little change to the general air mass across the region. Should see
highs reaching the lower to mid 90s(F) each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Scattered thunderstorms will move east-southeast out of southwest
into central Kansas through daybreak potentially resulting in brief
MVFR conditions at KHYS and KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail at all TAF sites through Friday evening. Light southeasterly
winds will persist across western Kansas overnight as a weak lee
side trough remains anchored across eastern Colorado. Winds are
then expected to become more south to southwesterly 10 to 20kt
after daybreak this morning as the lee side trough begins to edge
into western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  65  95  69 /  20   0   0  10
GCK  92  64  94  67 /  10   0  10  20
EHA  92  63  93  66 /  10   0  10  20
LBL  95  65  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  92  63  95  69 /  10   0   0  30
P28  95  68  96  72 /  30  20   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson


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