000
FXUS63 KDDC 251811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

...Updated for the short term forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

I will change very little to this current forecast, since the
ongoing forecast seems on track and in agreement with the short
term, high definition models.  We have been heating up faster than
yesterday, and I see no reason why we won`t reach the 100 to 104
degree range today.  Dew points in our eastern tier of counties
are in the upper 60s, which will combine with the 103F or so surface
temperatures to give heat indices in the 105F range.  Thus, the NPW
Heat Advisory will continue through 8 PM CDT this evening.  All of
the counties may not reach the 105F Heat Advisory criteria, but they
will come close.  There is a lee side trough moving near the
Colorado border, and if any storms do form this evening, it should
be near the trough axis.  Later, the trough could slide east into
our central CWA, and isolated storms could fire there towards
midnight.   As for low temperatures, we should be just a little
cooler than this morning, and min temps are forecast to be in the
upper 60s near Syracuse, and range to the mid 70s in Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge. I expect winds will not be as brisk as they were
last night, either.

As for Saturday, we will be under the dome of a hot, upper high
pressure dome centered off to our southwest.  A surface trough will
again form in Colorado during Saturday afternoon, and then move into
western Kansas during the evening.  So, at this time, I do not
expect any thunderstorms during Saturday, but just after sundown.
Maximum temps Saturday will reach the 99 to 103F degree range, but
dew points will be slightly lower than today.  Thus, a heat advisory
does not seem imminent Saturday.  Winds will vary from south at 10
to 20 mph in the Medicine Lodge area to the east across our northern
2/3rd of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

The climatological mid-upper tropospheric summer ridge that finally
became established this week will slowly lose its identity as
another eastern North America longwave trough develops. This will
force the upper anticyclone west to far southwestern CONUS with
northwest flow aloft returning to the central and even southern
Great Plains come mid next week. We will have one more hot day
Saturday with widespread 99 to 103F for highs. An isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible along the initial wind shift
convergence axis late in the day, but lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent and deep frontogenesis will likely prevent any
organized convection. Sunday will be slightly cooler with the first
surface high push south into the Central Plains. Post-frontal
upslope will develop with quite a bit of convection likely
developing across the central/southern Rockies of Colorado into
northern New Mexico. We will have POPs only in the southwestern
zones late Sunday into Sunday Night, generally southwest of a
Syracuse to Plains line.

The low level frontogenetic zone from southern Colorado into the
Texas Panhandle will keep the focus for precipitation in this area
(and perhaps into far southwest Kansas) Monday. While the forecast
continues to call for mid 80s everywhere Monday, the forecast highs
may need to be lowered particularly across far southwest Kansas. The
ECMWF keeps temperatures in the 70s all day from Johnson to Elkhart
to Liberal. Another MCS may develop upstream over the higher terrain
and roll slowly southeast across the same areas Monday Night into
early Tuesday. Shortwave energy will enter the Rockies Tuesday which
will enhance lift and lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis leading
to a larger area of more organized convection. The forecast of cool
and wet continues to look good from Tuesday Night into Wednesday,
especially across far southwestern Kansas. There could be
significant amounts of precipitation during this entire stretch from
Sunday through Wednesday across portions of the southern/central
High Plains, perhaps including some of southwestern Kansas. The
AllBlend guidance of Likely POPs Tuesday Night look good. High POPs
may eventually need to be extended into Wednesday...along with much
lower temperatures. Both 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF show
midday/afternoon temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s
Wednesday...not too dissimilar to the cool wave we had back on July
15-17.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

First of all, this TAF period will see VFR conditions. Nearly
clear skies and southwest winds will produce hot temperatures. A
weak wind shift will occur as a surface trough drops southeast
from central Colorado. Late this afternoon winds will become west
to northwest at 10 knots, or may actually drop to light and
variable after the trough passes.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72 101  73  93 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  69 100  71  91 /  30  20  20  20
EHA  70 101  71  92 /  20  10  20  30
LBL  72 103  72  93 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  72 100  72  91 /  20  10  20  10
P28  75 103  74  96 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-
081-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burke