Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181937 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
237 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A subtropical upper level shortwave trough will move slowly into the
Desert Southwest into Saturday. High level moisture will increase
ahead of this wave with models showing nearly saturated layers at
upper levels. The increasing moisture will cause thickening cirrus
clouds to increase mainly late tonight into Saturday. At the
surface, low pressure in eastern Colorado will move slowly east
toward the Kansas border into Saturday. Strong south winds this
afternoon will weaken slightly by evening, however a low level jet
is forecast to develop after midnight. South winds of 15 mph later
this evening may begin to get gusty with the low level jet at 15 to
25 mph after midnight. Good mixing and increasing high level clouds
will help to keep tonight`s temps on the mild side of around 50
degrees.

For Saturday, strong winds will continue at 25 to 35 mph from the
south ahead of a lee low with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.
Winds should be just under wind advisory criteria. Relative
humidities should also stay above 20 percent, so not planning on any
Fire Weather headlines at this time. High temps will be tempered a
little by the cirrus cloudiness, and should be around 79 to 81
degrees. Will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms in the far west
near the Colorado border and far north in the I-70 corridor towards
late afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance moves into western
Kansas. South of those areas the atmosphere looks capped. Some
strong thunderstorms may be possible, if storms develop along and
near a warm front, northeast of a surface low, from near Syracuse
to Scott City and Wakeeney. The severe threat looks marginal at
this time with the weak instability and shear.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At the beginning of the period, an upper level ridge will be exiting
the central Plains while an upper level trough, initially over the
Desert Southwest, approaches the central and southern Plains. A
strong upper wave will be tracking east along the U.S./Canadian
border. As this northern wave moves out, it will push a cold front
down into west central and northwest Kansas Saturday afternoon. Low
level moist advection will be occurring ahead of the front which
will result in some destabilization during the day. Model soundings
indicate some mid level capping in place across much of southwest
and central Kansas so think that initially the best chances for
convection will be along the front. Have trimmed pops back across
southwest and south central Kansas during much of the day Saturday
with increasing pops over west central into central Kansas as the
afternoon progresses. Will continue to show increasing pops Saturday
night. Pops will be increasing across much of the area on Sunday
into Sunday evening as the main upper wave moves out. The
precipitation chances will be diminishing Sunday night as the wave
moves past. Will keep a slight chance for showers going Monday
morning over south central Kansas as the wave moves out of that
area.

Have added a slight chance for thunderstorms to areas along and
north of Highways 50 and 156 on Tuesday night as some mid level warm
advection could produce some elevated showers/thunderstorms.

The models continue to show another strong wave approaching the
central Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is coming into a little better
agreement with the ECMWF with the timing of this wave although it
remains a little more positively tilted. The models show a dryline
developing across western Kansas during the day which could be the
focus for some late afternoon thunderstorms.

Behind the dryline, deep mixing of southwesterly flow aloft could
produce dry windy conditions at the surface leading to potential red
flag conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A fairly strong surface pressure gradient will remain in place
into Saturday with south southeast winds of 15-28kt. After
midnight a low level jet of around 50kt develops. High level
cirrostratus will increase late tonight into Saturday with VFR
conditions prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  55  74 /   0  10  10  40
GCK  51  79  53  71 /   0  20  20  30
EHA  52  79  50  75 /   0  30  40  20
LBL  51  79  52  77 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  49  80  56  74 /   0  20  60  60
P28  50  79  57  77 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Kruse






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