000
FXUS63 KDDC 102322
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
622 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

A strong upper level disturbance will approach western Kansas on
Tuesday as low level cyclogenesis occurs over northern Kansas. This
system is too far  north to being substantial precipitation to
western Kansas. However, some light rain is possible mainly for
areas north of Garden City and Jetmore, and particularly along
Interstate 70 by mid to late afternoon Tuesday. As the surface low
progresses eastward into northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri
in the afternoon, surface winds will increase on the back side of
the low. Therefore, a wind advisory has been issued for all of
central and southwest Kansas starting at noon.

Despite the very mild temperatures at 850mb tonight, dewpoints
are very low and winds will be 10 kts or less, which will allow
temperatures to fall into the lower 40s in most places. However,
any locations where low level decoupling does not occur could
experience warmer lows in the mid to high 40s. On the other hand,
if winds briefly drop off to 5 kts, temperatures could spike down
several degrees in only a few minutes into the high 30s. Temperatures
will warm quickly on Tuesday after an initial weak cold front sweeps
across eastern Colorado and through western Kansas. Much stronger
cold advection will begin by early afternoon along interstate 70
with falling temperatures. Farther southeast at Pratt and Medicine
Lodge, temperatures will max out around 2-3 pm before quickly
falling towards 5-6 pm.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

Very windy conditions will continue early Tuesday night based on
the tight surface pressure gradient located near the Oklahoma
border and the surface to 850mb winds forecast from the latest
model soundings. In addition to the strong winds, low level
moisture will be on the increase Tuesday evening. Based on the
depth of this moisture early Tuesday night there still appears to
be a chance for light precipitation, especially across north
central Kansas. Will retain the higher chances early Tuesday night
near the I-70 corridor based on the depth of the low level
moisture along with some mid level forcing forecast to be present
at 00z Wednesday ahead of an upper level trough. As for
precipitation type Tuesday evening will favor mainly drizzle/rain
given the 12z BUFR soundings in the Hays area. A mix of drizzle
and light snow is still not out of the question for a few hours
prior to the precipitation chances shifting east as the upper
level trough moves across central Kansas. Further south will lower
precipitation chances but kept a mention of patchy light drizzle
going until around 03z. Gusty winds are expected to decrease into
the 10 to 15 mph range after midnight as a surface and 850mb high
begins to build into western Kansas. Skies are also expected to
clear from north to south.

On Wednesday the surface to 850mb high will move into the
southern plains and a northwesterly downslope flow will improve
across western Kansas. This downslope flow will continue on
Thursday. 850mb temperature from 00z Thursday to 00z Friday across
all of western Kansas warm around 10c and based on this warming
trend and the 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday forecast to range
from 10C to 15c will continue to favor highs rebounding from the
50s on Wednesday with 60s for highs on Thursday.

A weak upper level disturbance will cross the central plains
Thursday night/early Friday as a cold front crosses western
Kansas. At this time it appears only mid level moisture will
accompany this upper wave so at this time only mention an increase
in cloud cover.

By the start of the weekend period models begin to diverge on the
development of an upper level ridge axis across the western United
States along with several subtle upper level disturbance rotating
around this upper ridge and out into the plains. At this time
given a persistent northwest flow will continue to favor the
latest CRExtendFcst_Init with keeping temperatures at or slightly
above the seasonal normals from Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with increasing high clouds.
Winds will generally from the south at 5 to 10 knots. Winds then
shift to more of a westerly direction by sunrise then to the
northwest by 15Z as a cold front sweeps across western Kansas.
Breezy conditions are expected behind this front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  40  60  26  53 /   0  20  20   0
GCK  40  57  24  52 /   0  20  20   0
EHA  40  59  26  50 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  40  60  25  52 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  40  55  26  52 /   0  30  30   0
P28  43  65  29  54 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from Noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/
Tuesday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42