Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 200730
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
130 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Quiet again across the high plains tonight, with scattered cirrus
drifting by in the increasingly SW flow aloft. Atmosphere is very
warm for this time of year (about 17C at 850 mb), and this
combined with the cirrus is keeping temperatures elevated tonight
in the 30s and 40s. Temperatures will easily hold in the 20s
through sunrise, and will hold above freezing across the SE zones.
Widespread stratus is expected in central Kansas by sunrise, the
western extent of which may reach Medicine Lodge and Barber
county. NAM suggests fog potential in this area early in the
morning as dewpoints rise into the 30s, and will monitor for any
impacts.

Saturday...SW flow aloft strengthens quickly, in response to a
546 dm closed low approaching the Grand Canyon by 6 pm. The
atmosphere will remain unseasonably mild, and with only scattered
cirrus, temperatures will again be well above January normals.
There will be a considerable temperature gradient this afternoon,
ranging from the mid 50s far east to the lower 70s far SW.
Pressure gradients will be weak today, resulting light and
variable winds chaotic in direction. Toward sunset, light winds
will trend SEly near 10 mph in response to surface cyclogenesis
in SE Colorado.

Tonight...As the surface cyclone in SE Colorado remains nearly
stationary, surface winds will maintain a SE to NE (easterly)
component. Consensus of short term models suggests associated
moisture advection will drive stratus and areas of fog westward
into portions of SW KS, particularly after midnight. Some high
resolution guidance is indicating very low visibilities across the
eastern CWA toward sunrise Sunday, and will need to monitor for
the need of a dense fog advisory. For now, just included areas of
fog in the grids after 3 am.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

A strong winter storm will impact SW Kansas Sunday and Monday with
strong winds, as well as wintry precipitation confined mainly to
the northern counties. Snow and blowing snow is expected to impact
travel mainly along the I-70 corridor Sunday night through Monday
morning.

Strong closed 544 dm upper low at the Four Corners 6 am Sunday
will stengthen further to 539 dm near the Scott City-Syracuse
vicinity 6 pm Sunday. Expecting areas of light rain to break out
across the NW 1/2 of the CWA Sunday afternoon, as strong dynamic
lift ahead of the approaching cyclone arrives. Model guidance has
been consistent on the general storm track, with continued high
confidence roughly the SE 1/2 of SW KS will be dryslotted by this
system with little if any precipitation. Any rain will quickly
change to snow around sunset Sunday, as very strong NW winds usher
in enough cold air advection behind the cyclone. At midnight, 00z
ECMWF shows the system deepening (536 dm) near Trego county.
Confidence is high on blizzard conditions impacting NW Kansas and
SW Nebraska Sunday night into Monday morning, and northbound
travelers are strongly urged to review their travel plans. For
SW Kansas, impacts will be highest across mainly Trego/Ellis
counties (including I-70) Sunday night through Monday morning.
Here, 1-3 inches of snow and blowing/drifting snow will be
a hazard, and a winter weather advisory will be required. After
coordinating with WFO Goodland, will be issuing a winter weather
advisory on this shift. With 850 mb winds of 50-55 kts behind the
departing cyclone, blowing snow should be significant, especially
in open areas, even with modest amounts. Kept the blowing snow
mention in the grids, not just for these NE zones, but for much of
the CWA Sunday night and Monday morning. Snow amount grids are
only carrying one inch or less for all other zones, but intense NW
winds through Monday morning will cause visibility issues. This
storm is very progressive, and will exit SW Kansas quickly, with
the sky clearing and NW winds diminishing by afternoon. With
little cold air advection, even with NW winds coming off the new
snowpack to our NW, still expecting highs in the low to mid 40s
(near 50 along the Oklahoma border).

Southern zones (mainly south of US 50) will get little if any
rain/snow from this system. Unfortunately, this is where drought
conditions are the worst, and this storm will offer little if any
drought relief for these southern counties.

Another stretch of quiet and dry weather is on tap next week. Cool
and dry NW flow Tuesday will give way to broad ridging and nicely
moderating temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. Pattern
recognition for Thursday suggests unseasonably warm temperatures,
with SW flow aloft returning advecting in another warm plume at
850 mb. Expect 60s to easily return, and noticed the 00z ECMWF
bias-corrected guidance is far warmer than the model blend.

00z ECMWF shows a broad strong and cold trough sweeping onto the
high plains, with a strong cold front on Friday. Much colder
temperatures follow on Saturday. GFS/Canadian model blend suggest
precipitation potential with this trough, but 00z ECMWF is
completely dry and doesn`t support them at all. SW Kansas will
continue to struggle to get any precipitation in this progressive
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

VFR will continue through Saturday with variable amounts of
cirrus. Widespread stratus in central Kansas by 12z Sat may get as
far west as P28, but have high confidence it will remain east of
the airports.  Weak pressure gradients will result in light winds
variable in direction through much of the TAF period. Toward 00z
Sunday, winds will trend SEly at 8-12 kts in response to surface
cyclogenesis in SE Colorado. Consensus of short term models is for
stratus and areas of fog to spread into SW KS Saturday night
through 12z Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  62  33  47 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  27  62  27  39 /   0   0   0  50
EHA  33  71  34  43 /   0   0   0  40
LBL  28  69  34  47 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  27  53  27  39 /   0   0  10  50
P28  34  61  34  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner



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