Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210551
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1151 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE 50 DEGREE MARK LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR SYRACUSE TO PRATT. THE AIRMASS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH ACHIEVED A FEW 50 TO 54 DEGREE HIGHS SO FAR
AS OF 2 PM. MODELS AND MOS PRODUCTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT  SAVE THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WHERE ADVANCING STRATUS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT COULD KEEP STUNT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EFFECTIVELY
WARM THE SURFACE LAYER. THIS CHANGING MESOSCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET
SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. ALTHOUGH DRIZZLE
IS A POSSIBILITY AND THE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION
WILL BE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE, THE SETUP
ISN`T CONDUCIVE TO A SIGNIFICANT DRIZZLE EVENT. THE ATMOSPHERE
NEEDS TO SATURATE AND WILL LIKELY ONLY REALIZE A VERY SHALLOW
LAYER OF UPSLOPE BELOW THE SHORT LIVED ROUND OF WEAK VERTICAL LIFT
BETWEEN 900 AND 800 MB. THE STRATUS WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT OF
THE DIURNAL TREND FOR THE DAY FRIDAY, MAINLY IN THE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHERE THE STRATUS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SATURDAY:

A RELATIVELY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. INCREASED HIGHS TO
MAINLY IN THE 60S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY. MINIMUMS WILL BE 30S WEST TO 40S EAST.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND:

A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. WINDS COULD BECOME FAIRLY
STRONG AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S FOR MONDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT, TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY MODERATE
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND LEE TROUGHING RESUMES BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE VARYING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT, BUT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC FRONT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR TURKEY DAY. IF
THIS VERIFIES, THAN THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS
TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN WYOMING
INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IOWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW
CENTERED WEST OF WICHITA FALLS, TX WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY NOON AND DISSIPATE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING, AND STRATUS
WITH BASES BLO010 CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO DDC 12-14Z AND INTO
HYS BY 15Z. PATCHY FREEZING FOG WITH LOCAL VSBYS NEAR 1 MILE CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM 12-14Z. THE STRATUS GRADUALLY WILL ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 010-020 BY 21Z. PATCHY FOG MAY
REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  45  32  60 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  27  46  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  28  52  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  48  28  62 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  24  43  30  58 /   0   0   0  10
P28  31  46  36  60 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...RUTHI


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