Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020657
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
157 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS FRONT NEAR SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  A RATHER STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, SEEM LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BASICALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  THE NAMDMG5, NMM-EAST, AND ARW-EAST MODELS ALL DEPICT A
QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ABOUT 03-04Z, AND MOVING EAST AS THE LINE DEVELOPS SOUTH. THUS, I
REDUCED THE POPS PRIOR TO 03Z DRASTICALLY, THINKING THIS WILL BE
PRIMARILY AN OVERNIGHT EVENT.  WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE GREATEST
HAZARD, BUT THE MUCAPE VALUES PER THE NAM40 MODEL WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z AND REACH AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT BY
06Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY, BUT I THOUGHT THE WIND
HAZARD SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EMPHASIZED. I DID NOT CHANGE
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT, STICKING WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SYRACUSE AND
SCOTT CITY AREAS, THE MID 50S FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE,
AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 60S IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE CHANCES WILL SLIDE
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALSO.  I EXITED THE STORM
CHANCES BY 21Z, EVEN THOUGH OUR ICT NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST HANG ON TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN WE DO.
THE COLD AIR  IS COMING, AND ALL OUR WFO NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO AGREE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER AND IN THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS.  IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE LATEST, MAX TEMPS IN
THE ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S THURSDAY.  ALSO, IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY, WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 20G30MPH, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY SHY OF THE SOON TO BE
GONE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WHILE A LARGER SCALE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE
ASSOCIATED THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH. A SECONDARY SURGE
OF COOLER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS.

A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE IN AS MANY DAYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
HELP DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WILL USHER A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS(C) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 10C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING
SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS  OF EVEN DRIZZLE LOCALLY. INITIALLY,
IFR TYPE CEILINGS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM, BUT MAY INCREASE WITH
TIME AFTER 12 UTC AS THE COOLER MOIST AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. NLDN CONFIRMED THUNDERSTOMS WERE WELL EAST OF THE
AREA, SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN A MORE STABLY STRATIFIED FORM.
CEILINGS COULD DECREASE TO BELOW 1000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  44  65  40 /  40   0   0   0
GCK  65  42  65  39 /  60   0   0   0
EHA  68  43  66  43 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  66  44  67  42 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  64  40  62  38 /  60   0   0   0
P28  68  48  67  42 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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