Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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275
FXUS63 KFGF 280222
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
922 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough from lower MI to
western Ontario. Wrap around continued to back into western
Ontario or just across the MN border as seen on Canadian radar.
Will keep precip over the far northeast zones overnight. Drier air
forecast to move in from the north overnight. Will decreased
overnight lows a degree or two...mainly west.

UPDATE Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Freshened up cloud cover with this update. The rest of the
forecast looks on track at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Forecast challenge through the short term will be mainly
temperatures. Upper low over far northern Mn will continue to lift
NE into Ontario overnight. A lobe of energy rotating around the
low will swing through the NE tonight so will maintain some low
pops as weak returns showing up on Canadian radar. Overall only
minimal accumulations expected. Temperatures will be somewhat
tricky overnight. Coldest air aloft will be east of the valley
however clouds a good part of the overnight will hold
temperatures up. Driest air and less clouds will be west of the
valley however they escaped the snow so overall temperatures may
end up fairly uniform in the 20s.

A quiet day for Friday as high pressure builds into the region.
Not much in the way of warm advection however with plenty of solar
and less snow cover temperatures should be able to recover into
the 40s to around 50 in the west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Fairly decent weekend on tap with high pressure keeping conditions
quiet. Although temperatures will remain a bit below normal (mostly
in the 50s), they should feel quite nice compared to readings over
the course of the past week.

The main concern throughout the period will be the next storm system
poised to impact at least portions of the area at the tail end of
the weekend and starting the new work week. An upper low developing
across the southern Plains late in the weekend is progged to deepen
as it propagates to the north and east by Monday morning. With the
current track, the area looks to be in the cold sector of the
surface low once again. Models are actually in pretty decent
agreement with timing and location of many of this system`s features
for this far out but there is still plenty of time for things to
change. As of now, the eastern half of the forecast area looks to
see the most impacts, generally along and east of the Red River
Valley. Temperature profiles suggest some tricky precipitation types
which will need to be watched as they could be influenced by any big
shifts in timing of the precipitation (more supportive of a mix/snow
overnight Sunday before warming on Monday). Ultimately, any changes
to the low track could bring big changes to the forecast so stay
tuned.

As the upper low continues to propagate off to the north and east,
northwest flow will set up across the region through the remainder
of the period. Models hint at a few weaker waves passing through the
upper flow for the midweek period providing on and of chances for
precipitation. Temperatures look to remain just a bit below normal
but should be warm enough for no real chances for measurable snow
after Monday`s system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

MVFR ceilings are expected to continue at BJI for the next several
hours. However, the NAM bufr data show a sounding capable of SCT
to BKN clouds at around 3500 ft by 09Z or so...after being at IFR
at 06Z. The GFS bufr/MOS are much more pessimistic with IFR cigs
possible for several hours tonight and early tomorrow. With the
HRRR model closer to the GFS...will side closer to the pessimistic
scenario. VFR conditions are expected at the rest of the TAF sites
with TVF just reaching VFR in the last hour, with VFR cigs
upstream and dissipating clouds expected. Models continue to keep
visibility concerns at bay.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Knutsvig



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