000
FXUS63 KFGF 021845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY RISING A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND RAISE HIGHS A LITTLE MORE FOR TODAY. THE WARM SPOT IS
THE SOUTHWEST FA WHICH HAS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW. GWINNER IS
SITTING AT 5F NOW WHICH AFTER THE LAST FEW DAYS SOUNDS PRETTY
NICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC WILL HAVE A
VORT LOBE ROTATE THROUGH ONTARIO TODAY. GETTING WARM ADVECTION WITH
VORT LOBE PASSAGE. FOG LOOP INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. SOME UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA
FORECAST TO  RETROGRADE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WATER VAPOR LOOP
VERIFIES THIS ACTIVITY.

WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH.

HIGH TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TODAY...MON...AND IN
THE SOUTH FOR TUE. ALSO LOW TEMPS WERE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES
FOR TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. INCREASE LOW TEMPS IN THE SOUTH COUPLE
DEGREES FOR WED MORNING AND DECREASED A FEW DEGREES IN THE EAST WITH
FEWER CLOUDS.

INCREASED POPS MON MORNING OVER WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASED SPEED A
BIT FOR MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. INCREASED SPEED OF PRECIP FOR
TUE NIGHT.

WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING AND MOST AREA THIS
MORNING HAD WIND CHILLS LESS THAN 40 BELOW. SO WILL KEEP WARNING
GOING UNTIL NOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN. ZONAL TYPE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BEFORE THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS...THERE WILL BE A FEW SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE
PAC NW BRINGING SNOW CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH EXACT TIMING OF
SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS...AND STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATER IN
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES...ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

VFR. EXPECT SOME INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WHILE
WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-053-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JK