000
FXUS63 KFGF 260446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE FA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND BELTRAMI
COUNTIES HAVE MOVED EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LOW END PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE VALLEY. SPOTTY CONVECTION TRYING TO
ORGANIZE JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER ALONG BOUNDARY AHEAD OF WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSE. COULD SEE SOME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON SO LOW POPS SEEM JUSTIFIED. BY EVENING FRONT SHOULD
BE EAST OF FA OR CLOSE TO SO KEPT THE OVERNIGHT DRY. THERMAL RIDGE
SHIFTS OVER FA HOWEVER WITH FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT MIXING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP A TAD BLO AVERAGE.

ON SATURDAY UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS IT
DOES A RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE FA.
COLD POOL ENTERS THE NORTHERN FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AREA. AIRMASS FAIRLY STABLE SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY T AND TRIMMED BACK TO MOSTLY SHRA. SOUTHERN
FA SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO AVERAGE MID SUMMER VALUES
WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. FAIRLY DEEP MIXED
LAYER SO EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER DVL BASIN.

UPPER LOW DROPS SE ACROSS NE MN OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY NE HALF OF FA AS TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOLLOWS UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH SCT SHRA.

UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN
WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

HIGH AND DRY BEST DESCRIBES THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIODS. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH LOCKED ONTO A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN NOAM H5
RIDGE POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH NO CLEAR SIGNS
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS.  THE ECMWF HAS A THREAT OF A ISOLATED SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY
OR EARLY THURSDAY... BUT WITH THE GFS COMING IN MARKEDLY DRY DURING
THAT SAME PERIOD...BOTH NCEP AND CONSENSUS POPS WOULD KEEP US DRY.
UNDER SUCH A SCENARIO...MAX AND MIN TEMPS ARE TRENDED VERY NEAR LONG
TERM SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CURRENTLY VFR THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERNIGHT TIME
FRAME AS FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BEST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF
BJI AND EAST OF FAR. THAT SAID WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE VSBYS
IMPACTED AT THESE LOCALES BEFORE 11Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW
WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30KTS POSSIBLE 35KTS AT DVL
IN THE AFTN. CIGS MAY BECOME MVFR BY TOMORROW EVENING IN THE
NORTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...JK