Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOME RAIN AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE WAS FALLING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MN. RADAR SHOWING SOME PRECIP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER SOME DRIZZLE HAD
FALLEN AT DTL. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WY WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER OK.
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST SUN. LOW LEVEL JET WAS FARTHER EAST IN THE GREAT LAKE
STATES. RESPECTABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 AND A QUARTER
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT. MOST OF THE THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. AREAS RADARS INDICATED RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH BUT
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET. WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND QPF.
ALSO WILL DECREASE TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT AREA RADARS INDICATED ONLY PRECIP WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
RED RIVER AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. MAY TWEAK POPS ON THE NEXT
UPDATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY RAIN COVERAGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SURFACE LOW TO
SE BY MN. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER SE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND DRIER FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS.

RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING
WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD. LIMITED POPS TO GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA TOMORROW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG SOME
FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY WENT STRICTLY WITH RAIN.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY MORNING. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY HOWEVER WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER IN EXITING THE ROCKIES SO WILL NOW GO WITH A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO SAGGING COLD FRONT.

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING MORE OR LESS ZONAL TYPE FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS RANGED FROM ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FT IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 24 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER THE FAR
SOUTH AT ELBOW LAKE. IFR CIGS WERE FARTHER SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES



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