Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221703
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY NOT LOOKING QUITE AS BAD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY.
THERE IS ACTUALLY A LOT OF MORNING SUNSHINE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. A LITTLE BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS OUT ACROSS THE
KDVL REGION WHERE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THE MOST PART ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL
BEEN MID OR HIGH LEVEL. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUT THAT WAY BUT THESE HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE. THEREFORE
WILL JUST GO WITH SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT DOES LOOK MORE
STABLE THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE PCPN
AREA A LITTLE MORE AS THESE SHOWERS ARE IN A THIN BAND SO FAR AND
ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE PCPN. THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE NOON HOUR AND THEN EASTWARD INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
AND SHOULD THEN BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GUSTY WINDS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS GFK/FAR
AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SO BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE...
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME CIGS NEARING MVFR IN MODERATE
RAIN. HAVE BEEN WATCHING CENTRAL SD FOR TRENDS. AFTER THIS
EVENING...SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE NAM TRIES TO BRING IN LOW IFR CIGS
TO KBJI LATE TONIGHT. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. THE
SREF ENSEMBLE HAS LOW CIGS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG






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