Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 261859
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
259 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE FOR THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STRETCHED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW YORK.
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING NEW YORK FROM MICHIGAN BUT EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE WHERE A STRAY
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP AROUND PEAK HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY POSSIBLY BRINGING LOCATIONS THERE A RUN TOWARD 90.

TONIGHT THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT CLEARING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST TIMING WAS TAKEN FROM A BLEND OF SSEO
AND SREF RUNS. WEAK CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
LARGELY KEEP STORMS SUB-SEVERE. UPSTREAM CONVECTION DRIVEN BY A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT OVER MICHIGAN MAY
CLIP THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH BEST CHANCE OF STORMS FOUND
THERE. GENERAL QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT UP TO A
HALF INCH WITH ANY STORMS CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT FAR AHEAD OF OR BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE COLDER SURFACE AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTH OF NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST IN ITS WAKE. THIS
HIGH WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH DRY AIR CLEARING SKIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUESDAYS TEMPS UNDER NORTHWEST COLD ADVECTION TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UNDERNEATH
NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW...ENSURING A DRY PERIOD WITH SOLIDLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BUT THE AIR MASS LOOKS TOO
DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CRESTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY SEEING
80S ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A "RIDGE-RIDER" THAT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE REMAIN CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING THE SYSTEM RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND THE OTTAWA
VALLEY....THEREFORE AM ONLY STICKING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BETWEEN THE
MODELS DIFFERS MARKEDLY...SO WILL HAVE TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
20-25 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE INCLUDING KBUF-KIAG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCAL FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKE.

TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS COOL AND MOIST
WNW WIND FLOW PASSES ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THESE LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER NEW YORK FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH A WNW
DIRECTION. THESE WNW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE WAVE HEIGHTS ON LAKE
ONTARIO LATER WEDNESDAY WITH SCA POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO WATERS. WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET OR LESS
ON LAKE ERIE WITH THE PERPENDICULAR WIND FLOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH/THOMAS






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