Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 190638
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
238 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE ACROSS NEW
YORK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM A LOW CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS PRODUCING
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT AND WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT IS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER
TERRAIN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE ACROSS THE
INLAND HILLTOPS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
30S THIS MORNING BUT BUFKIT PROFILES CONFIRM MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW
AND WARM TO PRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS THUS ONLY EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. SOME ISOLATED FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED AREAS WHICH DIP BELOW FREEZING.

SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BREAKING UP FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S
WITH EVEN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE
FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND THE NEW JERSEY
COASTLINE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT BROAD SURFACE LOW.

WHILE THE ENSUING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...IT SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY
ENOUGH TO SPREAD INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT ANY
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS IN MOST AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS
STILL ONGOING. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE FROM THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION EASTWARD TO OSWEGO COUNTY...WHERE CLOUDS
WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THIS STATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FROST/FREEZE EVEN IN THIS LATTER AREA STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW TO
BE WORTH A MENTION IN THE FORECAST/HWO AT THE PRESENT TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON SUCH FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUE TO
HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST...WITH ITS ATTENDANT LOW SLOWLY WEAKENING AND SLIDING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ON THE FRONT FLANKS OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD
RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT BEING FORECAST BY AN
INCREASING SUITE OF ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL PACKAGES...HAVE RAISED
LIKELY POPS TO CAT FOR BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS A STEADIER RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE-WISE... MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON MONDAY...WITH
MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS THEN DROPPING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

FINALLY DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A DEEP
CLOSED LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHILE
ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH DURING
TUESDAY...THEN REDEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUING TO CIRCULATE WESTWARD
INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...TUESDAY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FEATURE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
LOWERING IN RAIN CHANCES THEN FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN OF A SURFACE LOW GOING BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY
UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...AS THE MAIN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW LINGERING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LINGERING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP COMING ACROSS OUR NORTH COUNTRY
ZONES... WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
WITH THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THE TYPICAL RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIATIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
LOW AND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ITS PRECIP...FOR NOW HAVE FELT IT BEST
TO CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND OUR EXISTING
CONTINUITY...WHICH FEATURES A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS REMAINING CONFINED
TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTS OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... AND
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEST-EAST REDUCTION
IN PRECIP CHANCES...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE EAST OF KJHW. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...
LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LOWER LAKES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH TODAY LASTING LONGEST ON
THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS OVER
THE LOW LAKES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR/RSH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH






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