Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 270021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
821 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the southeastern
U.S. causing warm moist conditions across our area through the
Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures will remain well above normal
with highs in the lower or middle 80s and lows in the 60s. A low
chance of mainly afternoon thunderstorms will continue into early
next week.


Issued at 803 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

A weakening mid level wave will across northwest Ohio will be
exiting the area over the next hour or two. This weak forcing
still appears to be co-located with a pocket of 1000-1500 100 mb
MLCAPES and recent radar trends have indicated a few cells trying
to develop. Will keep an isolated shower mention through 01Z or
02Z across northwest Ohio, but otherwise no substantial changes to
the going forecast. More widespread convective activity this
evening remains displaced to the west across eastern
Kansas/Missouri. Some indications that local area could get some
remnants once again from this convection as it diminishes
overnight into Friday, with previous low-mid range chance pops
still seeming appropriate for Friday.


.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Isolated to scattered convection will remain possible into mainly
northwest OH and south-central MI late this afternoon along a
weakening convective outflow. Moderate MLCAPE and just enough
convergence currently (18z) to support low chance PoPs, with
lacking flow/lapse rates and warm profile not supportive of
upscale growth/severe wx. Little chance for measurable
precipitation then into tonight as fairly strong subsidence
builds in behind departing MCV.

Pattern will amplify a bit Friday into Friday night as a vigorous
southwest US shortwave ejects east-northeast into the Central High
Plains and an Eastern US mid-upper level ridge builds into the
Northeast US/southeast Canada in blocky flow. The local area will
be caught in between in warm/humid deep layer southwest flow. With
this will come low chances for showers/storms given ample CAPE/low
level moisture, especially for areas west of the I-69 corridor on
eastern fringe of modest LLJ as convectively aided/smaller scale
shortwaves lift northeast from the Mid Mississippi/Missouri Valley
to the Western Great Lakes. Opted to keep PoPs on the low side
given low predictability of mesoscale features with synoptic
scale support displaced well off to west-northwest.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

High theta-e/PWAT airmass will remain in place into Saturday and
Sunday as light southwest flow persist. This moist, but generally
weak flow with the potential for smaller scale/convectively
induced shortwaves to propagate through, will result in more low
chances for showers/storms during these periods. The best chances
appear to be on Sunday as what is left of the Central Plains PV
anomaly finally minors northeast into the western/northern Great
Lakes forcing a weak cold front southeast into the local area.
Regardless, most of the holiday weekend should remain dry given
lacking forcing/flow. Mainly dry/seasonable conditions are then
expected into the first half of next week as flow pattern breaks
down somewhat.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 803 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Threat of precip for terminals will remain low through the
nighttime hours. Most pronounced instability axis will remain
east of the terminals this evening, with any additional isolated
shower/storm development expected to remain mainly across
northwest Ohio. The combination of a slightly stronger low level
jet nosing across Mid Ms Valley and ejecting mid level wave has
led to more widespread showers/storms well west of the area this
evening. Could see some remnants of this convection in form of
scattered showers/isolated thunder some time later Friday
morning/afternoon. Confidence low at this time on the eastward
extent of showers Friday and will limit mention to VCSH. With
moist boundary layer remaining in place, did maintain tempo MVFR
conditions inline with previous forecast in the 10Z to 14Z
timeframe, otherwise VFR conditions for this evening, through most
of Friday.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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