Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 300813
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
413 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HANDFUL OF ISSUES TO DEAL WITH FOR THIS PACKAGE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COURTESY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL AS WELL AS
INCREASING HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE AND COLD FRONT.
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN NOTED ON OBSERVATIONS BUT SO FAR
SEEM TO BE PATCHY ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. SPS ISSUED
TO HANDLE FOR NOW.

TO THE WEST...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO SCOOT SLOWLY EAST INTO FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY TAKE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
SLOWLY EAST AND DISSIPATE TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER...AFTER 15Z
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO RAMP UP AND FRONT DRAWS CLOSER SETTING THE
STAGE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN MID TO HIGH CHC AND FOCUSED BEST SHOT IN THE
EAST WHERE TIMING OF FRONT AND DIURNAL UPTICK SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER COVERAGE. SOME CONCERN THAT STRATUS WILL HAMPER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION MIXING OUT DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY SMALL HAIL OR LOCAL STRONGER WIND GUST AS WELL AS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT
ANY ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


SERIES OF SHRTWV`S OVER SWRN CANADA/NE PAC EXPECTED TO TOP WRN RIDGE
AND DROP SEWD INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VALLEY MID-WEEK. THIS TRACK
SHOULD RESULT IN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF
OUR CWA FOR DRY WX HERE WED-THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVG SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE GRTLKS DOMINATES. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
DRY SPELL COULD LAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE STNRY FRONT LIFTS BACK
N-NE AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO DEEP UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER GULF
OF ALASKA MOVG EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW
MAINTAINED LOW CHC POPS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH BETTER CHC
MONDAY AS THE CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST. WITH FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND NE FLOW
DOMINATING... EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK... WITH WAA RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND TO SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRATUS/FOG HAS BEEN TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE AT BOTH SITES. MVFR
CONDITIONS NOW IN PLACE AT KFWA WITH TRENDS HEADING THAT WAY FOR
KSBN. UPSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING EITHER
SITE. HOWEVER...WITH PROXIMITY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT OPTED TO MOVE UP TIMING FOR VCSH. NOT
CONVINCED COVERAGE WILL END UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN THE
VCSH FOR THE TIME BEING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING AS WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...FISHER


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