Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 171134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
634 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Showers and thunderstorms moved out of the southeast part of the
forecast area this morning and another batch of showers and maybe a
few thunderstorms is just to the south/southwest of the forecast
area. Temperatures have cooled off early this morning as a surface
high settles into the area.

The showers and thunderstorms to the south should graze the southern
part of the forecast area. North central Kansas should be the only
area to get precipitation through day break. Have kept some low PoPs
in north central Kansas into the afternoon hours. By late this
afternoon and into tonight, there is an upper level wave that moves
into the area. The models have a few differences in that the NAM
brings it into the area this afternoon, but during the evening and
overnight all of the models have some precipitation across the area.
The best chance will be in the southeast part of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The thunderstorms continue across the area Monday morning, but
should move out of the area during the afternoon. There is a small
chance that some could linger into the afternoon and even the
evening in the southeast, but really expect that they should move
out during the morning and early afternoon.

Monday night through Thursday night should be dry. Even with out
precipitation, there are some interesting things happening. Monday
night and Tuesday there will be a surface low developing on the high
plains along with an upper level wave that will be approaching. On
Tuesday, the pressure gradient tightens and winds will be
increasing. Temperatures will be warming up and will be around 10
degrees warmer than on Monday. Tuesday night the surface low and
cold front will move through the forecast area. Although there will
be an upper level wave moving through, most of the strength of this
system will be to the north of the forecast area and expect dry
conditions as the front moves through Tuesday night. As abruptly as
the temperatures warm up Tuesday, they cool for Wednesday behind the
cold front. Wednesday will have a surface high move through the area
and by Thursday the winds turn back to the south and temperatures
warm back up again.

On Friday, another surface low develops on the high plains and a
fairly strong trough is in the Rockies. The south winds will bring
in some moisture and there is a chance for some thunderstorms again
on Friday. There lies some timing issues with the system for Friday.
The GFS brings the front through during the day Friday while the
Canadian is slower and the ECMWF slower still. Despite the
differences in frontal timing, all of the models have some
precipitation across the area Friday through Saturday. There is
still some time for the models to become more in line.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

VFR conditions are forecast for most of the TAF period. Sunday
night an upper wave moves across the region and will bring rain
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms to the area. Hedging that
vis and ceilings will only drop to a MVFR from after 06z with
showers. Went VCTS for thunderstorms in the area, but do not have
high enough confidence to put them on station this far out.




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