Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 102102
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
402 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

SHORT TERM... THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW RH VALUES.

TONIGHT...A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH THE NOSE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAM WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY AND EVEN IF A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS DO
DEVELOP IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
EVAPORATE LEAVING ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SURFACE. MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE DRY TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD UP BY INCREASING CLOUDS...AND THUS WILL PRIMARILY
CALL FOR LOWS IN THE 40S.

FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL HAVE SLID OFF TO OUR EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WARMING WIND. WILL ALSO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID
70S. EXPECT DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 775MB THAT WILL BRING DOWN SOME
DRIER AIR AND RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON MIXING. THESE VALUES ARE JUST SHY OF FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE CRITERIA AND THUS NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCLUDED THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REVOLVES
AROUND WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE REGION UNDER ZONAL/WEAK NWRLY FLOW...WITH
BROAD WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE MIDWEST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SPINS JUST OF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND WEAK RIDGING IN BETWEEN.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BRING THE FIRST OF A NUMBER OF PIECES OF
ENERGY TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA...THIS ONE PRIMARILY AFFECTING
NRN NEB INTO THE DAKOTAS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
COULD BE CLIPPED BY SOME LIGHT PRECIP. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE INSERTING A POP.

ON SAT/SAT NIGHT...THAT WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL MOVES INLAND...BUT
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IT TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE...BECOMING PHASED IN WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
SLIDING S/SE OUT OF WRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...THE START OF THE DAY
SEE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE CENTRAL
SD/NEB BORDER DOWN TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER /THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THESE FEATURES/. THROUGH THE
DAY...THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED ROUGHLY OVER
SWRN KS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
TREK...WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY EXTENDING SW/NE
THROUGH THE CWA...AND BECOMING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES POST 00Z. ALSO HAVE THE BETTER
EVENING POPS ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE MODELS
SHOWING BETTER LIFT ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ.
HOW STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY END UP BEING WILL DEPEND ON THE CAPE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONFIDENCE NOT BEING OVERLY
HIGH IN THE MODELS AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME DEPICTING DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH
MODELS TENDENCY AT TIMES TO OVERDO HOW QUICKLY THAT KIND OF
MOISTURE CAN WORK THIS FAR NORTH...NOT GOING TO BUY COMPLETELY
INTO THAT SOLUTION YET. EVEN SO...STILL THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND WILL
MENTION IN HWO. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO..SATURDAY IS THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEING AHEAD OF THAT COLD FRONT...WITH
FORECAST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN SOME SRN LOCATIONS.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE...WITH
ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ITSELF FINALLY
PUSHING E/SE THROUGH THE CWA. UPPED POPS CWA WIDE...AND ALSO
INSERTED A MENTION OF SNOW SOONER IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT NIGHT...AND
BY 12Z SUNDAY IS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK/IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. GOOD
PRESSURE RISES AND COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL HELP TO MAKE FOR A
WINDY DAY...WITH NRLY WINDS SUSTAINED ARND 25 MPH AND GUSTS WELL
OVER 30 MPH. MODELS SHOWING QPF FIELDS A LITTLE BROKEN UP BETWEEN
THE PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...AND WITH VARIANCES BETWEEN
THEM...POPS AT THIS POINT ARE BROAD UNTIL MORE DETAILS CAN BE
IRONED OUT WITH LOCATION/TIMING. THE 12Z RUNS OF MODELS DID FOR
THE MOST PART COME IN COLDER...AND THINK THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN WILL ALREADY ARRIVE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY IN THE NW...SPREADING SE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COLDER AIR WORKS FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MET
EARLY ON IN THE DAY...WITH STEADY/FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS WITH IT BEING A
WETTER SNOW DURING THE DAY...BUT IF TEMPS TREND COLDER...WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING
NEAR 06Z.

LOOKING AT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE DRY CONDITIONS GOING IN
THE FORECAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. GETTING CLOSER INTO/THROUGH
WED...THE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT...AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY STARTS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE WEEKEND
FRONTAL PASSAGE KEEPS THINGS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MONDAY...WITH A
REBOUND INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA COMES WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY...BUT PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES IN MODELS EXIST.  THE
ECMWF IS ON THE WEAKER/QUICKER SIDE...BRINGING AN OPEN WAVE
THROUGH AND CLEARING THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING...COMPARED TO
THE 12Z GFS...WHICH BRINGS A WELL ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND SLOWER THROUGH THE REGION...LINGERING INTO PERIODS
BEYOND THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
MODELS TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

A SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING RESULTING IN DECREASING WINDS AND MORE VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...WESELY



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