Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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961
FXUS63 KGID 261936
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
236 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

FOCUS OF THE FORECAST TODAY HAS BEEN THE IMPENDING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT SITTING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AS OF 2 PM CDT...THIS LOW AND WARM
FRONT HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW
ACROSS OUR LOCAL PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO EVIDENT.
AS A RESULT...AMPLE SHEAR COMBINED WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY
SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE RAPID AND INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY AFTER 4 PM.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SEEMINGLY BEEN GETTING
A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS...WITH FOCUS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INITIATING ACROSS OUR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES AND PROPAGATING NORTHWARD DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM COMING INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE FOCUS OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IN THE NEWLY
ISSUED TORNADO WATCH. THAT SAID...WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY...THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE THREAT TRANSITIONING FROM MORE OF A TORNADIC
AND HAIL CONCERN INITIALLY...TO A HAIL AND WIND THREAD AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON.

AS THE LOW THEN SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT COOLER AIR
TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND FOR MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCAL RESIDENTS ARE
URGED TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE...AND RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT AND A
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...MAIN
CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER N/NW THAN OTHER MODELS.
HAVE LINGERING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW....WITH SOME QUESTION AS WE GET INTO
THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT SOME
CONCERN REMAINS WITH A FEW SHOWERS HANGING ON ACROSS FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING MODELS TREND.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW DIGGING
INTO THE SWRN CONUS.

LOOKING AT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THAT SWRN CONUS UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...BY SAT MORNING HAS EMERGED OUT OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR N/S IT COMES OUT ON THE
PLAINS...BUT TIMING IS FAIRLY SIMILAR. INCREASED LARGER SCALE LIFT
OUT AHEAD OF AND WITH THE SYSTEM KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS
POINT...MODELS NOT SHOWING A LOT IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...SO HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER OR JUST SHOWERS GOING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...EXPECTING A COOLER PERIOD...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR /WHICH
IS ROUGHLY IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70/. FRIDAY CURRENTLY THE COOLEST
DAY...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING WRN LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE 50 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THE GENERAL STORY
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. EXPECT A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...TO RESULT
IN CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE THEY SUBSIDE A BIT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE SEVERE...TO INITIATE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
PROPAGATE NORTHWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE SURFACE LOW
FOLLOWS SUIT AND LIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECTED CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. OVERALL...THE BEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPORARY LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN +TSRAS AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW TOMORROW
WHEN PREVAILING CIGS WILL DROP BELOW 500FT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



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