Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 190614
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
114 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Made an increase in chances for precipitation tonight, especially
west/north as a good cluster of storms has developed over the
western High Plains and headed east. This along with a warm front
that has stalled and bisected the CWA, it looks like a good chance
that these storms will follow along the front and head into our
area during the late evening and into the overnight. This will be
a late show, with any storms around hitting the tri-cities well
after midnight, if they hold together. Still a tough call on how
far east storms will make it before waning and lose their support
from the low-level jet when they move east of the jet axis.
Kearney has the best chance of the tri-cities to get rain, with
Hastings having the least, but still non-zero chance of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Satellite and observations show some lingering stratus mainly across
the northern part of the forecast area this afternoon. There is also
some mid level clouds further south in the area. Surface analysis
shows a warm front draped across southern Nebraska this afternoon.

The main features are similar with the models, but some of the
smaller features and details have some differences between the
models. All this leads to some uncertainty, mainly for precipitation
chances.

An upper level wave moves into the area tonight. There are already a
few thunderstorms on the high plains this afternoon. The main
expectation is that these will move into the area tonight, but a few
of the models hint at a little development ahead of the storms that
are out there. Have pushed POPs later in the evening, but have some
concern that these may still be too early. There will also be a low
level jet that helps to keep the thunderstorms going during the
night. With the later arrival, expect there could be a few that
linger into the morning hours. This should be mainly to the north as
the upper level wave moves to the northeast.

The next concern will be heat. An upper level ridge will build on
Tuesday. Temperatures will be warmer than today for most locations.
The only problem with this is if there is lingering precipitation
and clouds in the morning, it could slow down the heating a little
and keep temperatures a bit cooler. Have kept with the current
temperature regime and that brings heat index values to the 99 to
102 degree range for heat index values. Since this will be the first
day in quite a stretch, have an excessive heat watch out for the
entire area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Through the remainder of the work week, the upper level ridge will
continue across the area and high temperatures will be a few degrees
either side of 100 degrees. The humidity will also be high and cause
heat index values to be in the 100 to 106 degree range. The warmest
days appear to be Wednesday and Thursday, but Friday is still going
to be warm, but there becomes a little more uncertainty in the
amount of heat. there is an upper level wave that moves into the
area Thursday night. The GFS brings some precipitation with the
wave, but the ECMWF is dry. Have kept some low pops during the night
with some in the west on Friday. If there is any precipitation and
clouds the temperatures will be a bit cooler.

The period Friday night through Monday looks to be unsettled. The
ridge is not as strong and there are a few upper level waves that
move through the plains. None of them have a high chance for
precipitation, but there could be some and so have kept low POPs for
much of the area through the period. It likely will not be raining
all the time or all over, but there is a small chance. Temperatures
will be a little cooler, but still in the upper 80s and 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Confidence is reasonably high in VFR visibility and especially VFR
ceiling through at least the vast majority of the period. By far
the main question marks/caveats come right away during the first
6-9 hours, as there is increasing evidence that KEAR, and perhaps
KGRI also, will be affected by at least a brief period of
thunderstorms as a linear complex/cluster moves in from the west.
For now, went with a TEMPO group for KEAR mainly for gusty winds
to around 30kt where confidence is higher that storms will hit,
but will keep KGRI just a generic "vicinity" (VCTS) for now. In
addition to storm chances, have maintained a mention of low level
wind shear (LLWS) through the first 7 hours at both sites as
south-southwest winds of up to around 40kt within the lowest 1500
ft will create 30+kt of overall shear difference between the
surface and that level. Once the storm/low level wind shear
concerns subside beyond the first 6-9 hours, most of the remainder
of the period should be fairly straightforward with VFR/storm-free
conditions and breezy south winds with afternoon gust potential
into the 20-25 kt range. Low-level wind shear could again become a
concern late in the period Tuesday evening, but there is still
plenty of time to address this in later TAF issuances.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Excessive Heat Watch from this afternoon through Friday evening
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Excessive Heat Watch from this afternoon through Friday evening
     for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Pfannkuch


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