Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 111728
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1128 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

The snow quickly moved out this morning moving clear into
southeast NE and northeast KS. Despite winds still reporting
between 30 to 40 mph, a look at live webcams around the area show
decent visibilities. With this, have decided to cancel the Winter
Weather Advisory early for the whole area. Wind speeds will
decrease throughout the day. Temperatures on the other hand may
struggle more than originally anticipated. Have cut daytime
temperatures a couple degrees with the strong cold air advection.
Otherwise it`ll be a sunny, windy day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

The winter storm system has finally arrived during the pre dawn
hours. The cold frontal boundary swept through bringing intense
north winds and gusts have averaged 35 to 45 mph, and a few
locations have topped 50 mph including KHSI with a peak wind of 52
mph. Temperatures rapidly plummeted with most locations in the
teens at this time, and combined with the wind, current wind
chills values are in the single digits above/below zero which will
continue to drop with the cold air advection.

Narrow frontogenetic snow bands associated with the progressing
upper trough axis have been developing and working east across our
region early this morning. Within the heavier snow bands,
visibilities have dropped below a mile. The progressive nature of the
system will limit overall snow accumulations with the heavier
snowfall tied to the where the snow bands set up. The highest snow
amounts we have heard of so far include amounts near 2 inches at the
North Platte NWS office and around 4 inches at Thedford. Snow has
ended to our west at these places and looking at web cams in our
area, some snow has accumulated but visual looks suggest the
majority of the snowfall is around an inch or less so far. The
snow still has a few hours to fall before ending this morning and
generally expect amounts in the half to one inch range, and
potentially around two inches if a snow band lingers.

The snow departs quickly to our east during the morning and
should be out of our area by 9 or 10 am and especially by noon.
Winds will remain strong through the day in a tight pressure
gradient as surface high pressure builds south from the Dakotas
behind the cold front. Until the snow ends and visibilities
improve with falling/blowing snow, plan to hold onto the winter
weather advisory this morning.

Temperatures will struggle, rising only a few degrees with mainly
teens to low 20s expected which are markedly colder than
yesterday`s highs mainly in the 50s/60s. The gusty north winds
will gradually subside this evening/tonight while temps drop to
the single digits for lows.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

This frigid airmass will be around for several days, into the
weekend and first part of next week. In northwest flow aloft, energy
associated with a Canadian trough will translate southeast through
the Upper Midwest and Plains region, sending a reinforcing shot of
cold air on Friday. Models have continued to show the potential for
light snow with this system and with the cold air in place, it will
not take much to get a dusting of accumulation but nothing overly
significant. A strong 1045mb surface high builds south behind the
front Friday night, reinforcing the frigid airmass and producing
wind chills of 10 to 20 degrees below zero.

The upper trough and surface ridge migrate eastward late Saturday
allowing for rising heights and some moderation of the cold air.
Some chance for snow is possible in the warm air advection and as
a jet streak crosses in the northwest flow regime. Sunday still
looks to be a transition day in between systems, with slightly
warmer temperatures ahead of another cold front poised to move in
Sunday evening. Light snow is again possible with this arctic cold
front Sunday night into Monday, with frigid temperatures expected
to hold firm through Tuesday. While still several days out, sub
zero wind chills values are likely Monday through Wednesday
mornings. The cold snap finally looks to break with a pattern
change during the day on Wednesday in a moderating airmass with
shortwave ridging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

The winter storm system is moving off to the east and skies are
clearing behind it. Northerly winds remain stout with sustained
speeds near 25 kts and gusts over 30kts. Winds will slowly
decrease throughout the day and become light and variable
overnight. With the next upper system approaching early Friday,
lower stratus will build into the area. With this forecast,
keeping ceilings VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Billings Wright
SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Billings Wright



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