Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 170010
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
610 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Gusty southerly winds have taken hold across the area under weak
ridging in the mid and upper levels. These winds will die off a
bit this evening...to around 5-15 MPH.

Late tonight, continued southerly flow will advect some stratus
into the area. This increased low-level moisture may even be
enough to develop some patchy drizzle and some fog, particularly
along and east of Highway 281. Low temperatures should bottom out
in the upper 30s to 40s.

On Friday, a weak front will move through the area, which should
be sufficient to shift winds back to the west and eventually
northwest and start decreasing the cloud cover. The biggest
question on Friday is how warm we get during the afternoon. With
some lingering cloud cover, I would tend to favor the low-end of
guidance, but even that is in the 60s for most of the area.
Ultimately, I think that south and western portions of the CWA may
make a run at 70 degrees, while areas to the north and east where
clouds linger may struggle to make it to the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

On Friday night, a fairly strong upper-level wave will pass
through the area developing a band of frontogenetic precipitation
across Central Nebraska and Northern Kansas. Precipitation will
start off as rain, but this wave will bring a punch of colder air,
which may allow precipitation to change over to snow after
midnight into the early morning of Saturday. The latest NAM and
the GFS are slightly a bit colder than previously, but
temperatures are still marginal (33 to 36 degrees). This should
help keep any snow accumulation relatively minimal (0.5" or less).

Behind this wave, Saturday will be cold and windy, with northwest
winds gusting to 30-40 MPH. Low temperatures on Saturday night
will fall into the low to mid 20s.

A warming trend starts on Sunday, and continues on Monday as the
upper-level pattern deamplifies a bit. Highs on Monday could once
again reach 60 degrees across parts of the area. This warming
trend will be interrupted by another wave moving through on
Tuesday and Wednesday, though. This wave will have little moisture
to work with, so no precipitation is expected.

Models have been quite variable for the end of the next week and
the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend, but right now it appears that
Thanksgiving will feature near to above normal temperatures.
Another system looks poised to impact the area on the Friday and
Saturday after Thanksgiving. While it is still too far away to get
specific with any details, it doesn`t appear that it will have a
big impact on the local area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 610 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

There are a few aviation forecast concerns tonight. These include:
low level wind shear, low stratus and some fog. Low level wind
shear is a concern early this evening into the early overnight
hours, but is expected to wane before morning.

Low stratus is expected to move northward this evening into the
early overnight hours. The question is how far west is this line
of stratus going to go. Confidence is fairly high that KGRI will
see IFR to LIFR ceilings, but confidence is lower for KEAR. KEAR
is right near a potential line of MVFR to IFR/LIFR ceilings. The
latest guidance is more pessimistic and went that route including
KEAR in the IFR/LIFR ceilings during the morning hours.
Additionally there could be some fog as this low stratus moves
northward, with thicker fog along the edge of the stratus line.
Have kept patchy fog in the forecast with the lowest visibilities
of 1sm at both terminals for this forecast issuance. The main
concern there is sustained southerly winds around 10 to 15 mph
through the overnight hours. Conditions are expected to improve
during late morning/early afternoon tomorrow with ceilings
lifting back to VFR. One continued question is will this be to
quick?

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

On Saturday, northwest winds will be 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of
35 to 40 MPH possible. The good news is that relative humidity
values won`t be conducive to fire development for most of the
area. The exception is parts of Phillips and Rooks Counties and
Kansas where humidity may dip to near-critical levels (20 to 30%)

Warmer weather on Sunday will lead to lower RH values, although
wind speeds will be significantly lower and out of the southwest.
Nevertheless, this is expected to push portions of Kansas to near-
critical fire conditions. Minimum RH values are expected to be 20
to 25% across northern Kansas with wind gusts of 15 to 20 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Billings Wright
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels


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