Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 021013
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
513 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OVERVIEW...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FROST ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND ALLOWED
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...AFTER A COLD MORNING START AND SEVERAL COOL DAYS
WE WILL WARM UP NICELY THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HELPING HIGHS
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. ALSO HAVING ONLY A LIGHT WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT TODAY. WE HAVE A LITTLE CLIPPER COMING
DOWN OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. MOST OF
ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IN OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES.

FROST ADVISORY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLEARLY BE IN THE FROST
FORMATION ZONE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 31 AND 36 IN THE
AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED THE FROST ADVISORY. WE WERE ALREADY
CALLING FOR FROST IN THESE AREAS DURING PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING IT IN OUR HWO PRODUCT AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
THERE WAS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE CLOUDS WOULD CLEAR OUT
HURTING CONFIDENCE ON THE EARLIER FROST FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN
NOW THE PRETTY MUCH CERTAINTY OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE ACTUAL FROST HEADLINE
SHOULD ANYONE BE WAITING FOR A HEADLINE TO ACT OR GETTING UP EARLY
TO CHECK ON SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

SHOWERS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS IS LACKING MOISTURE AND WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BASED ON MOST MAJOR FORECAST MODELS. MUCAPE VALUES
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT BETWEEN 50-100 J/KG IN OUR NORTHWEST. SO SURE
WE COULD HAVE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE
MONTH OF MAY THAT HARDLY SEEMS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND WILL JUST GO WITH THE MORE LIKELY
DOMINATE MODE OF RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN WE ARE ONLY CALLING FOR A
NARROW SLIVER OF GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES NEARER THE SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:
IN THE AFTERMATH OF A VERY WET/IN SOME PLACES RECORD-BREAKING
APRIL...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME SHOULD BE JUST WHAT THE
DOCTOR (FARMER?) ORDERED TO MAKE SOME DECENT HEADWAY ON WARMING UP
AND DRYING OUT. THAT BEING SAID...FOR THOSE WHO REALLY WANTED A
LONGER-DURATION DRY PERIOD...WELL THAT MAY NOT BE IN THE
CARDS...AS NEXT WEEKEND ALREADY CONTAINS SOME HALFWAY DECENT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME
THAT WE HAVE KEPT THESE WEEKEND CHANCES (POPS) BELOW "LIKELY"
THRESHOLDS THOUGH. STICKING WITH THE WEEKEND PRECIP
CHANCES...AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) FOR SHYING
AWAY FROM INTRODUCING ANY FORMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREAS FOR
THIS DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME
RANGE...BUT EARLY INDICATIONS DO SUGGEST WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT`S HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THESE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF SPRING CHILL...BUT "NORMAL" HIGHS FOR EARLY MAY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. ALONG THOSE LINES...WE ARE PLEASED TO REPORT
THAT EACH OF THESE 6 DAYS CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMAL...WITH MAINLY LOW 70S TUES-WED GIVING WAY TO THE
MID-70S/NEAR 80 RANGE THURS-SAT BEFORE POSSIBLY COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO 70 BY SUNDAY ASSUMING PRECIPITATION IS AROUND. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
FROST/FREEZE BEYOND THE ONGOING ONE...WITH LOWS HOLDING UP IN THE
40S ON TUES/WED NIGHTS AND THEN MAINLY 50S THURS-SAT NIGHTS. OF
COURSE...AS EVIDENCED JUST A FEW YEARS AGO...WE TRULY CANNOT START
"GUARANTEEING" WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS ON FROST/FREEZE UNTIL AT
LEAST AROUND MAY 20TH.

POSSIBLE HAZARDS THAT ARE INCLUDED OR MAY NEED INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID):

AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE ONLY HWO INCLUSION IS THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH NO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
SHOWING ANY "OBVIOUS" CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. PER LOCAL
POLICY...HAVE REFRAINED FROM TALKING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES BEYOND
DAY 3 WITHOUT BEING OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...WILL FINISH WITH SOME BRIEF DAY-
TO-DAY COMMENTS FOR THOSE INTERESTED:

TUESDAY DAYTIME: WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE CWA IS DRY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY...THERE ARE SOME
SUBTLE HINTS PER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/ECMWF THAT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY LINGER OUT OF
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE VERY FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN CWA AS THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE LOCAL AREA. THAT BEING
SAID...CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING PAST SUNRISE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" OUR GOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THIS SHOULD BE OUR
FIRST DAY OF NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN A WEEK! EVEN BEHIND A
PASSING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED AFTERNOON
BREEZES TO EXCEED 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT: EXPANSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES. DESPITE CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT BUT STEADY NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPS
UP INTO THE MID 40S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: DRY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY UNDER THE DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. DAYTIME WINDS COULD BE A
BIT BREEZY FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM THE
NORTH LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HWY 281.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: SHOULD STILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL START TO
INDUCE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES. TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY
BREACH 80 ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA BUT HAVE NOT AIMED
QUITE THIS WARM YET.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION...MODELS SUGGEST A
"LEAD WAVE" WILL RIDE UP TOWARD OUR AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...WE HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THIS
ENTIRE 24-HOUR PERIOD...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT LATER FORECASTS
MAY HAVE TO RE-CONSIDER ADDING SOME SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
BACK INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
FAR...FAR FROM CERTAIN...BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT BY DAY 6-7 STANDARDS IN LIFTING THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING UP INTO THE LOCAL CENTRAL
PLAINS AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT. IT`S STILL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY DAYTIME MIGHT END UP BEING LARGELY DRY...AND
THUS HAVE ONLY SLIGHT 20 POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON THAT
DAY...BEFORE MODESTLY HIGHER...MAINLY 30-40 POPS ARRIVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE
WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND
THEN SWING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL FINALLY
A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD WITH FEW IF ANY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

REGARDING THE INCREDIBLY WET LATTER HALF OF APRIL (RECORD-BREAKING
FOR SOME PLACES):

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE ISSUED A SERIES OF
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS (PNSGID) AND FACEBOOK/TWITTER POSTS
TO HIGHLIGHT SOME STATS REGARDING OUR NOW-FINISHED VERY WET APRIL.
AMONG OTHER THINGS...THIS WAS THE WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD AT
OFFICIAL NWS STATIONS AT KEARNEY...HOLDREGE AND SMITH CENTER. MOST
PLACES NEAR/WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR MEASURED ANYWHERE FROM
200-400 PERCENT OF NORMAL APRIL RAINFALL. PLEASE REFER TO THESE
AFOREMENTIONED PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046-
     047-060-061-072-073-082.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH


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