Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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909
FXUS63 KGID 210829
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
229 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

...Record High Temps Today but the Significant Warmth Since the
10th will End Tomorrow with Snow Likely by Thu night and Temps
Returning to Where They Should be for Feb...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Aloft: Heights have risen in the wake of yesterday`s trof with
50m rises at LBF from 12Z-00Z...70m at UNR and 90 at DEN. A very
subtle low-amplitude ridge will move overhead this afternoon with
zonal flow tonight. Meanwhile...a broad trof will move into the NW
USA along with a 120 kt upr-lvl jet.

Surface: Weak high pres stretched from TX-IA. A wavy polar front
extended from the Nrn Plns thru the Pac NW and S into CA. This
front will gradually make its way thru the Wrn USA today and
tonight and will be on our doorstep by dawn Wed...extending from
low pres over SD thru Neb Panhandle into CO.

Today: Sunny and gorgeous with record warmth. Highs in the 70s
will be 35F above normal! Can`t rule out a few spots hitting low
80s...especially from Cambridge NE down to Plainville KS.

Breezy W-WSW winds will gust 20-30 mph from I-80 north. S of I-80
the lighter winds will make for another spectacular day to be
outside.

Fire wx watch was upgraded to a RFW for parts of the fcst area.
See fire wx disc below for details.

Tonight: Some patchy cirrostratus will drift thru. Becoming
p-m/cldy. We may not be high enough on cloud cover yet. Another
night of above-frzg low temps. In fact...once again lows will be
near where our daytime highs should be for this time of yr.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

The unseasonably warm weather will continue through Wednesday,
then the weather pattern will undergo changes for the latter part
of the week with the arrival of a winter storm system.

The pattern aloft Wednesday will feature fairly zonal flow across
our region and a surface trough/weak cold front will cross the
plains bringing a wind shift to the northwest. Cooling behind the
front is negligible with highs still expected to reach the 70s in
most areas. Record highs average in the mid 70s and current
forecast max temps are a few degrees shy of this. Fire weather
conditions remain a concern and see the fire weather section for
further information.

The warm weather comes to an end as storm system emerges from the
central Rockies and crosses the plains Thursday/Friday. Models are
consistent with a closed mid level low tracking across Nebraska
and this path brings the better precipitation chances to our
Nebraska counties. Lift increases Thursday ahead of the
approaching system and thermal profile at the onset is warm for a
liquid/rain precipitation type initially. There is a few hour
period Thursday afternoon where elevated instability is present in
our southeast zones, but have held off an mention for thunder. As
the low tracks east, cold air is drawn south onto the plains and
the precipitation will transition to snow north to south. Snow
amounts ultimately will depend on the track of the system and
timing of the change from rain to snow. Latest models suggest the
greatest snowfall will be across northern/western Nebraska with
amounts in our area in the 1 to 4 inch range primarily for
locations north of Interstate 80, with the higher totals toward
the Ord/Greeley areas. Gusty north winds will also be a factor
with the falling snow Thursday night into Friday.

Have kept small pops in for Saturday night for a brief chance for
light snow, but overall the weekend is trending drier and more
seasonal for February. Temperatures look to moderate a little
heading into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Significant Wx: Cross winds on N-S RWYs 17Z-23Z.

Rest of the night: VFR SKC. Lgt mainly SW winds under 10 kts.
Confidence: High

Tue: VFR. Just a few small patches of 25K ft cirrostratus. SW
winds increase and gust up to 25 kts. Confidence: High

Tue eve: VFR with 25K ft cirrostratus become SCT or even BKN
toward 06Z. Lgt SW winds under 10 kts. Confidence: High

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

The Fire Wx Watch was upgraded to a RFW along and N of I-80. The
watch was cancelled S of the Interstate. Almost the entire fcst
area will see RH drop below 20%...but confidence in winds is not
as great. At this point am expecting verification for Red Flag
will come via 3 hrs of 25 mph wind gusts. 00Z LBF sounding mixed
to 6000 ft yesterday. With this in mind...used RAP model for winds
and mixing layer. It has 20-25 kts at the top of the BL available
for downward transfer.

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected Wednesday
afternoon in a dry, warm airmass. Low relative humidities across
the entire fire weather outlook area will be near or just below 20
percent and fuels/grasses remain dry and favorable for fire
growth. The passage of a cold front during the day will bring a
wind shift to the northwest with wind speeds generally in the 15
to 20 mph range. Could see some higher gusts but winds look
marginal for headline and will keep mention in HWO and monitor
trends.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 229 AM CST Feb Feb 21 2017

Potentially Threatened Record High`s...

        Tue 2/21     Wed 2/22
GRI    75 in 1995   76 in 1982
HSI    73 in 1995   75 in 1982

This fcst package suggests record highs will be broken today...
and then fall short of the record tomorrow.

As of midnight...the mean monthly temp at GRI is 37.9F. This is
10.0F above normal and is tied with Feb 1992 for the 5th warmest
Feb on record.

Rank     Year     Avg Temp
1        1930       41.4
2        1954       40.8
3        1931       38.4
4        1991       38.3
5        1992       37.9


The mean monthly temp at HSI is 38.7F. This is 9.8F above normal
and currently ranked 4th.

Rank     Year     Avg Temp
1        1954       44.0
2        1930       41.6
3        1991       38.8
4        2017       38.7
5      1999/1931    38.1

While it`s been an incredible run...this Feb will not go down as
the warmest on record. Tomorrow is the last day of this extended
stretch of significantly above normal warmth. Temps will turn
cooler the rest of the month...with at least one day of much
below normal cold. The fact that this Feb will fall short shows
how significant the warmth was in 1930 and 1954.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064.

KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Kelley
FIRE WEATHER...Kelley/Fay
CLIMATE...Kelley



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