Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 210803
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
303 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Surface high pressure will transition eastward across the plains
today with an increasing pressure gradient expected in its wake. As
a result...after an unseasonably cool start to the day this
morning...expect southerly winds to increase transporting warmer air
northward across the region. While not unseasonably warm...expect
afternoon temperatures to quickly rebound with high temperatures
topping off in the low to mid 80s at most locations...or very close
to seasonal norms for this time of year. In addition to the
occasionally breezy southerly winds...expect a few passing high
clouds from time to time...as northwestelry flow aloft flattens off
and becomes more zonal by the late afternoon hours.

While winds should decouple some around sunset tonight...expect an
increasing low level jet to develop across the region with the focus
of this jet well to the north and east of the region. While no
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected as a result...should
see significantly warmer overnight low temperatures early Monday
morning as the sustained southerly surface winds near 10 mph should
provide enough mixing to keep most locations in the lower 60s early
during the early morning hours.

Overall...expect a chilly start to the day today...followed by
breezy southerly winds...mainly clear skies...and seasonal
temperatures for the remainder of the short term periods.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Aloft: A low-amplitude ridge will be over the Cntrl/Nrn Plains Mon
...ahead of a potent low over SW Canada. The ridge axis will drift E
of the Plains Mon night. The low will track E across Srn Canada thru
Thu. Despite the potency of the baroclinic low over Canada...the
fcst area will be more influenced by a separate but phased weak trof
over the Desert SW. Svrl vort maxima will eject out of this trof and
cross the Cntrl Plains as heights fall associated with the Canadian
low...creating one large/deep trof by Wed. The first vort max is
fcst to lift into KS/Neb Mon night into Tue. The second is fcst for
Wed. Confidence is only average in this scenario because these
modeled vort maxima could be convectively generated and they have
below average predictability. Fcst confidence lowers Fri-Sat as
split flow could develop with closed highs developing off the Pac NW
coast and over the SE USA...with an elongated trof from Hudson Bay
SW to a cut-off low off CA.

Surface: High pres will be over the Ern USA Mon morning with low
pres over Srn Alberta. The fcst area will be in the warm sector of
this low as it heads E Mon-Tue. Its cool front will drop into Wrn
Neb Tue and will sweep across the fcst area Tue night. Wrn Canada
high pres will begin building in Wed. It will slide down the lee of
the Rockies and settle over the Cntrl Plains Thu night before
drifting E of the region Fri.

Temps will average slightly above normal Mon-Tue then turn cooler
than normal Wed-Sat.

Some daily details...

Mon: Back to summertime heat (86-92F). Dry and windy. Temps a little
above normal. S winds gust 25-35 mph.

Mon night: we may be a little too aggressive having any PoPs in the
fcst from Hwy 136 down into N-Cntrl KS. The best model QPF
clustering is over SE KS and OK. For now PoPs were capped at 20%.

Tue: The cool front will be just NW of the fcst area during peak
heating. Rich moisture will race N into the region with 850 mb dwpts
as high as +17C. Breezy S winds gust up to 30 mph. Temps not quite
as warm as Mon due to increased cloud cover. Sct tstms appear
possible at anytime.

Wed: Cooler. Tstm threat could linger behind the front as there is
help aloft.

Thu: Still looking dry and wonderfully comfortable with highs in the
70s and dwpts in the 50s.

Fri-Sat: Tstms chances increases as moisture advects back into the
region as the high retreats to the E. It`s encouraging to see the
fcst area will be in the RRQ of an 80 kt upr-lvl jet streak over the
Nrn Plains in confluent flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period with light winds
and only a few passing high clouds expected overnight. For
Sunday...expect an increasing pressure gradient to result in
occasionally gusty southerly winds...which are expected to
decouple and diminish some around sunset. Despite the surface
winds decreasing late in the day tomorrow...winds aloft will
increase overnight...resulting in some LLWS that will be needed to
be added to the 12Z TAF issuance.


&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Rossi



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