Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 271734
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THERE ARE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR HAS THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE MORNING
DRY SINCE THE CURRENT SHOWERS ARE COMING FROM HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND
MOST OF THEM ARE MOVING MORE EASTERLY AND SHOULD MAINLY AVOID THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE BASED CAPE INCREASES
TO OVER 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE CAPE
QUICKLY DIMINISHES AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
NOT MUCH CAPE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT THUNDERSTORMS IN BUT IT
COULD TURN INTO SHOWERS WITH VERY LITTLE THUNDER TOWARD MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

IT WILL BE A WARM AND DRY FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE JUST A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WEAK RAIN SHOWER IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN WE WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DRY. FRIDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...OTHERWISE IT WILL GENERALLY BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COOL
FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR OSCEOLA TO THE MID
80S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE EXITED
OUR AREA BY DAWN ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE
OR WEAK RAIN SHOWER IN THE MORNING DUE TO THE STILL CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN AND
THEN HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE SHAPE
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...BUT NOT EARLY ENOUGH
TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECTING A BREEZY AFTERNOON AS THE AREA SITS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
SFC LOW TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH WHERE
INITIATION WILL OCCUR AND OVERALL COVERAGE IN THE TERMINAL
AREAS...KEPT MENTION AS VC FOR NOW. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP IN THE AREA...HAVE A SCT010 MENTION GOING FOR NOW...NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LOWER THE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP


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