Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 200914
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
414 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

A cold front has moved through the forecast area overnight. Behind
the front winds have turned to the northwest and were a little gusty
for a time, but they decrease over time. Skies have mainly cleared
out, with the exception of the northeast where a few clouds are
moving through from the thunderstorms to the northeast of the
forecast area.

A surface high pressure system will move through the forecast area
during the day today. This should keep mostly sunny skies and light
winds. The winds will turn from the north to the east or southeast
as the high moves through. Temperatures should be more seasonable.

The surface high moves to the east tonight and winds, even though
will be light, will turn toward the southeast as the high moves to
the east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

This period should be fairly active. Thursday will be warm and
windy. Friday through Monday should have some showers and
thunderstorms and Tuesday will be cooler.

On Thursday the front that moved through here tonight will stall in
Kansas on Wednesday, then turns back around and moves north as a
warm front Thursday morning. There is a developing surface low on
the high plains and the pressure gradient will tighten and winds
will increase from the south during the day. This will bring
temperatures back to readings in the 90s for much of the forecast
area. There will be some drier air that works into the southwest
part of the forecast area and expect there to be some near critical
fire weather conditions during the afternoon for the southwest.

Thursday night into Friday the surface low continues to develop on
the high plains and south winds continue through the night into
Friday. This should be enough to keep the low temperatures well up
and there could be some record high minimum temperatures across the
area. The warm night and the south winds will also lead to highs in
the 90s for much of the area again on Friday. By this time, the
south winds will have brought in some more moist air and there
should be less fire weather concerns.

The period Friday afternoon through Monday has the potential to be
wet. There is an upper level trough over the Rockies that slowly
moves to the east during the period. The surface low and cold front
will gradually move through the area. There are a few timing issues
with the onset of precipitation. The GFS brings precipitation into
the northwest Friday afternoon, while the rest of the models wait
more until late Friday night. Have kept some low PoPs in the
northwest during the afternoon, but that could push back as time
gets closer. The same goes for Friday night, there could be a delay
in precipitation onset as this system gets a little closer. By
Saturday, the surface cold front starts to move into the forecast
area and the precipitation spreads across the area. The front slowly
tracks across the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday. The
models have some timing differences with the GFS faster moving the
front through than the ECMWF and Canadian. There should be some on
and off showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Initially there is
much better instability with the system, but through time the
instability decreases and have less chances for thunderstorms as
time goes on. There should be some showers lingering into Sunday
night and Monday. On Monday the GFS and Canadian start to move the
precipitation out of the area, but the ECMWF is slower and keeps
precipitation through much of the day on Tuesday. At this time, have
started to clear things out Monday night and only linger
precipitation in the southeast Tuesday morning. Through the period,
temperatures are a little cooler each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. The biggest
challenge overnight is what the winds are going to do. Expecting
the winds to gradually lighten as the night progresses and
debated on when to drop the gusts in the TAFs. Looking at the
models plus time of day thinking 12z-ish was a good time to drop
the gusts at this time. Winds during the day will lighten up and
will become southeasterly this evening as the high slides east.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Beda



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