Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 240836
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
336 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

ALOFT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH/FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BREEZY AND TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 60S.

SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO
PRESENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT IS HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. LIGHT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS ONGOING THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. THE MAJORITY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 81 BY SUNRISE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID-
MORNING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE TRI-CITIES AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST IN THIS AREA MAINLY
DRY DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL NEED TO
WATCH IF THIS OCCURS. MAINLY EXPECTING SKIES TO SCATTER ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS AND HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
COOLER IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF
THE DAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE/SD BORDER. THE FRONT/TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST. A BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE
UPPER LOW MOVE...WHICH WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR HOW FAR EAST THE
FRONT WILL MOVE. IF IT SLOWS DOWN...AS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. INSTABILITY OF 1500-2000J/KG MUCAPE AND
45-50KTS SHEAR IS AMPLE FOR ANY STORM TO BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AROUND
OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

MONDAY THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...BUT A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THERE IS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS THE WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BRING IN MOISTURE TO
THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A
WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. MUCAPE OF UP TO 5000 J/KG ARE
FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WARM FRONT MOVES
TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EVEN WHEN THE MUCAPE
DECREASES SOME. EXPECT THERE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME OF THEM
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE TRACK
AND SPEED OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. THE GFS
TAKES THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. WITH THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA A LITTLE EARLIER. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT EVEN THE ECMWF STARTS TO PULL FAR ENOUGH TO THE
NORTH THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THERE IS LITTLE CAPE LEFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE JUST
SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FAR
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. EVEN WITH THE
DIFFERENCES BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS. 1. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 2. THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH MAINLY 12Z. WITH CONFIDENCE ON HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY IS...HAVE KEPT VCTS IN FOR NOW. WILL
AMEND AS STORMS BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON
WHEN THEY MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STOUT TONIGHT...AN OUT FLOW BOUNDARY
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE WIND DIRECTION. WIND WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BILLINGS WRIGHT
SHORT TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT



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