Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 251734
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1234 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Temps are struggling to rise...espcly E of hwy 183. Have been
making downward adjustments thru the morning. Satl shows multi-
layered thick clouds E of hwy 281 and this is further suppressing
temps.

We will have a fog problem on our hands tonight. Have already
updated the fcst/HWO/EHWO to insert vsbys 1 mi or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

This serves as a first draft for this shift...

High Impact Weather Potential: dense fog late tonight thru Sun
AM.

Surface: The low pres sys that moved thru the last couple days to
the E. An axis of the high over Ontario/Quebec extended SW across
Neb into CO...while a cool front was making its way thru the Wrn
USA. High pres will remain overhead tonight. The front will cont E
with lee cyclogenesis occurring along the NM/CO border. The newly
formed low will head E tomorrow into Nrn TX. The Nrn portion of
the front will weaken and move into the fcst area (FA) as an
inverted trof.

Tonight: Cldy/foggy. Areas that have seen the sun W of Hwy 183
will cloud-up. E-NE winds will advect the stratus W and this is
shown by all hi-res models.

Conds are ripe for fog. Low stratus has lingered most of the
day...keeping temp-dwpt depressions low and BL flow is from the NE
where it has been raining...meaning that incoming air is very
moist.

There is potential for dense fog...but there are a couple
mitigating factors that reduce confidence: 1) the invasion of
thick multi-layered mid-high clouds from the W which will reduce
radiational cooling. 2) Does existing stratus build down low
enough?

Sun: Cldy/foggy thru the AM and the low clds will probably last
well into the day. They will be hard to get rid of with contd E-NE
low- lvl flow. Expect some erosion/dissipation will occur W of
Hwy 281... but even still it will only reveal multi-layered mid-
high clds.

More later...


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

A relatively active pattern will continue Sunday through next week
bringing multiple chances for light precipitation to the area.

The first of several upper level disturbances will move into the
area on Sunday. Models continue to indicate that the bulk of the mid-
level wave will track across KS, which will severely limit
precipitation chances for south-central Nebraska. Monday will be dry
as the wave departs and ridging briefly builds into the area.

Chances for showers return Monday night into Tuesday associated with
warm advection ahead of another upper level low located over
Arizona. This feature will eject across the central U.S. on
Wednesday. Model solutions start to diverge a bit at this point. GFS
more progressive and farther south than the ECMWF and CMC as it
phases the low with a northern-stream wave. As a result, the GFS is
markedly drier for Wednesday and Thursday. At this point, I`m
thinking that it is a bit of an outlier even compared to its own
ensemble members. PoPs have been trended back slightly compared to
previous forecast, but still have widespread rain chances Wednesday
through Thursday.

Confidence on PoPs falls off considerably for the end of next week
into the weekend as models really diverge at this point. For now,
have Friday mostly dry, with rain returning to the forecast on
Saturday, but this will likely be subject to several changes over
upcoming forecasts.

Temperature-wise, we will stay pretty close to our climate "normals"
for this time of the year. Highs will range from the mid 50s to low
60s and lows will be in the 30s to low 40s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFs through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Significant Wx: IFR thru 18Z/Sun. Fog will reduce vsbys below 1SM
roughly 10Z-15Z.

This Afternoon: IFR CIGs will lift a little allowing vsbys to
improve. N-NNE winds 8-12 kts. Confidence: High

Tonight: IFR conts with CIGs/VSBYs lower. Conds are favorable for
fog. Multiple sets of fcst guidance is suggesting 1/4SM FG VV002
but there are some mitigating factors...so only went 1/2SM. Lgt
NNE winds drop 5 kts or less. Confidence: Medium

Sun thru 18Z: IFR. VSBYs should improve after 16Z as CIGs begin to
lift. Lgt mainly NE winds 5 kts or less. Confidence: Medium

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Kelley


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