Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 262351
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
651 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

OTHER THAN MAYBE THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF A ROGUE SHOWER BRUSHING
THE FAR EASTERN CWA MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON (DEEMED
UNLIKELY ENOUGH THAT ITS NOT EVEN MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST)...THIS LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD/UNEVENTFUL
24 HOURS AS THIS NOTABLE STRETCH OF WARM/TRANQUIL EARLY FALL
WEATHER PERSISTS. UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AM NOT EVEN
ANTICIPATING LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT SO IT/S NOT IN THE FORECAST
EITHER.

STARTING OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS OF 1930Z/230PM...IT APPEARS THAT
FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW HIGH TEMPS ARE GOING TO END UP SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ADVERTISED IN THE EARLY-MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE...AS
MOST OF THE CWA APPEARS ON TRACK TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 83-87. ONE
LIKELY REASON THAT MODELS/GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN UNDER-SHOOTING THE
WARMTH A BIT IS THAT FAIRLY DEEP MIXING IS LOWERING SURFACE
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED...THUS ALLOWING THE
AIRMASS TO WARM EFFICIENTLY. MID-AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS HAVE IN FACT
MIXED WELL INTO THE 50S IN MOST OF THE CWA...AND EVEN SOME POCKETS
OF UPPER 40S. OBVIOUSLY THE ESSENTIALLY WALL-TO-WALL-SUNSHINE HAS
AIDED THE WARM-UP AS WELL...AS ANY SMALL BATCHES OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REMAINED EAST MAINLY OVER IA/MO. AS
EXPECTED...SOUTHERLY BREEZES HAVE PICKED UP A NOTCH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 13-18 MPH AND GUSTS
INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THESE INCREASED WINDS ARE BEING PROMOTED
BY A SOMEWHAT TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD HIGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AND MODEST HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
WEST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A BLOCKY/HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR ONE...A NARROW/ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS IS
CENTERED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...A LARGE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY
INFILTRATING THE WESTERN CONUS. CLOSER TO HOME AND ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...AN ELONGATED MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST...ANCHORED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE BY A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER FAR SOUTHWEST TX AND AND ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE BY
ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY CLOSED LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHERN
IA/NORTHERN MO AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE OVERALL WEATHER SCENE CHANGES LITTLE. IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF THE DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH REACHES
THE SOUTHERN CA/NV BORDER AREA BY SUNRISE...WHILE CLOSER TO
HOME THE LUMBERING CLOSED LOW OVER IA RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY
NORTHWEST AND WHILE ITS CENTRAL CIRCULATION REMAINS A FEW HUNDRED
MILES EAST OF HERE OVER WEST CENTRAL IA...AT LEAST THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA AND
LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS A TOUCH. DESPITE THIS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION BEING SO NEARBY THE LOCAL AREA...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH IN A DRY NIGHT AS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS NEARLY NON-
EXISTENT OVER THE CWA...WHILE WEAK-MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
STRONGER FORCING FARTHER EAST CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS OVER PARTS OF
IA/MO. AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL WEAKEN BELOW THIS
AFTERNOON/S SPEEDS BUT STILL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST GENERALLY 7-12 MPH...WITH MAYBE SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AIDED BY LIMITED MIXING INTO A MODESTLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. THESE FAIRLY
STEADY SURFACE BREEZES AND GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD
PRECLUDE THE VAST MAJORITY OF EVEN LOCALIZED FOG ISSUES FOR A
CHANGE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...LEANED CLOSE TO A MODEL/GUIDANCE BLEND AND MADE VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO
THE 56-59 RANGE (VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT).

TURNING TO THE SATURDAY DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS VOID
OF ANY PRECIP MENTION...AND CONFIDENCE IN THAT REMAINS FAIRLY
HIGH. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE INSERTED SOME "SILENT" 10 PERCENT
POPS IN FAR EASTERN ZONES NEAR HIGHWAY 81 DURING THE AFTERNOON
JUST IN CASE THE SREF 3-HOUR POP PROG MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING
ADVERTISING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS POPPING
UP IN EASTERN NEB. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC AND HIGHER-RES
QPF/MODELED REFLECTIVITY FIELDS ARE ALMOST UNANIMOUS IN KEEPING
THIS VERY OUTSIDE PRECIP RISK TO THE EAST OVER IA. IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS...THE CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL LOW THAT
STARTS THE DAY OVER WEST-CENTRAL IA ONLY MEANDERS VERY SLIGHTLY
NORTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST IA. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...THE NARROW
BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOSE ITS BATTLE AGAINST
THE LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WHICH STARTS TO CUT OFF OVER NV
FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT BUT POSSIBLY TIGHTENS UP
JUST A BIT. THE NET RESULT IS THAT STEADIER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BREEZES WILL PROBABLY KICK IN A BIT SOONER THAN THEY DID TODAY AND
ALSO AVERAGE JUST BARELY STRONGER. OVERALL THOUGH...MOST OF THE
DAY SHOULD AGAIN HAVE SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH SPEEDS GUSTING 20-25
MPH. GIVEN THAT SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN
MOSTLY SUNNY...ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF COOLING AT THE 850 MILLIBAR
LEVEL COMPARED TO TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS AT THE SURFACE TO AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AS WELL. THAT BEING SAID...DID NUDGE UP PREVIOUS
FORECAST 1-2 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. THE NET RESULT IS THAT MOST OF
THE CWA IS FORECAST TO TOP OUT 80-83...WHICH IS STILL SOLIDLY 5+
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURES INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. THEN THERE IS A RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT A
WEAK TROUGH OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT
PERHAPS CLOSE ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. I HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARBY TROUGH
WILL BE COMBINED WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH COULD GIVE US AN AREA
OF CONVERGENCE IN OR NEAR THE EASTERN CWA. THERE WAS NO THUNDER
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST...AS MUCAPES WILL BE SLIM TO NONE.

BEFORE THE TROUGH TO THE EAST HAS A CHANCE TO EXIT...WE COULD STILL
HAVE AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY.

AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES...THE NARROW RIDGE MOVES EAST AND
GIVES US A MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE FAR
WESTERN CWA BY AFTERNOON...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MAKES IT FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. ONWARD FROM MONDAY NIGHT...WE WILL HAVE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UNTIL THE LAST OF
THE TROUGH CAN EXIT EAST. MUCAPES TAKE A DIVE BY THURSDAY TO TAKE
OUT THUNDER. LEFT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...DESPITE
THE FACT THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST MORE THAN
LIKELY...BUT A FINAL SPOKE MAY ROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CLEARLY DISPLAYS THIS AND PAINTS SOME QPF
OVER OUR CWA AS LATE AS FRIDAY.

SEVERE PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT WE COULD GET SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A DIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THERE COULD BE
SOME REMAINING POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BUT THUNDER LOOKS UNLIKELY
PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LACK OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

A LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF OVER 30 KTS IN THE
LOWEST FEW HUNDRED FEET TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT NO PROBLEMS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY


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