Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 181927
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
227 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Fairly quiet weather through the next few days with a gradual
warming trend...probably most noticeable at night with lows
in the 40s and 50s...which is quite a bit warmer than recent
nights. Winds will a also be on the increase gradually...and
reach breezy/windy levels by the weekend. That will aid in
warming things up.

As the wind kicks in...look for low level moisture to increase
as well...although not as much as the models indicate. Most
notable increase will occur later Thursday night and Friday.
Have kept the patchy fog in the forecast...and left the drizzle
for now. Not sure if things can be narrowed down at this point.
Did remove the precipitation chance/sprinkles from Thursday
for most areas with the main lift mainly slide to our south.

More active period begins Sunday and continues through next week.
Upper trough will push into intermountain west created a southwest
flow aloft. Few different waves will push through the Southwest
flow giving periodic thunderstorm chances. Sunday night and early
Monday brings a good shot for High Plains convection working east
with a frontal passage overnight and early Monday. Timing is not
favorable for severe weather although a few stronger storms are
possible in the time frame but it does have the eye of SPC in
longer term severe weather progs. Additional rain chances continue
well into the week. Despite the rain risk...temperatures will be
warmer with an overall more humid feel...especially Sunday &
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Aloft: Convoluted split flow remained over N America. Weak NW
flow will prevail over the fcst area thru tonight. The low
currently over AZ will weaken/open up and head E as it begins to
feel the upstream effects of the next trof fcst to move into the
Pac NW. By dawn Thu ...the trof remnants of the AZ low will extend
from Wrn KS into NM.

Surface: High pres was over the Great Lakes and will remain
locked in place thru tonight.

Today: M/sunny this morning...then turning p/cloudy this
afternoon as scattered Cu form. 2-3F warmer than yesterday...upr
60s to around 70F. Overall a nice day with light winds.

Tonight: Decreasing clouds in the evening...then turning p/cloudy
again after midnight as S winds in advance of the approaching trof
bring clouds back in. Near normal temps with lows in the mid-upr
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

The weather pattern will turn active again, especially late in
the weekend into next week. An upper low pressure system in the
desert southwest will fill as it lifts northeast onto the southern
and central plains on Thursday. Forecast models have backed off on
overall rain chances but cannot completely rule out some chance
for precipitation and have mentioned the potential for sprinkles
in the morning and slight chances for showers in the afternoon. As
lowlevel moisture continues to increase Thursday night, models are
fairly consistent in developing low clouds and cannot rule out
patchy fog, drizzle and/or light rain.

The low clouds, fog and light precipitation may linger into
Friday morning then expect a period of dry weather in rising
heights/shortwave ridging in between the departing wave to the
east and ahead of an upper low moving into northern California.
Confidence in the Friday night period is not high in the warm air
advection regime, and we could see another night of stratus and/or
elevated convection. Models are not consistent on this yet and
have kept the forecast dry, but it will be something to keep an
eye on.

Temperatures trend up over the weekend in upper ridging ahead of
the west coast upper trough. Chances for thunderstorms return as
early as Saturday night, however better chances for convection
exists Sunday night into next week as the upper low translates
across the northern Rockies onto the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

VFR conditions are forecast through the period with lights winds
and only some fair weather and generally light winds throughout...
and only some fair weather cumulus clouds this afternoon.


&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
SHORT TERM...Halblaub
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz



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