Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 271044
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
544 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPING INTO A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST...A SURFACE HIGH HAS BUILT
IN AND CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ENSURE DRY
WEATHER. USED BCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY AS THIS USUALLY PERFORMS
BETTER THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT CLOSER TO ALLBLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WENT A BIT
LOWER WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE 80S AND SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT. A
COUPLE OF SITES IN THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN TO 3 TO 6 MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE WITH A
FEW HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

REALLY HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS LOOKING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH CONTINUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE NM/TX BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...AND IT
LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER AT THE SFC...CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECTING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE.  DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR N TO MID 80S
IN THE SW.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES START TO ARISE IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. NOT REALLY A OBVIOUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...BUT MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. KEPT THE POPS LOW WITH NOT ALL
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THOSE CHANCES.

TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THESE CHANCES LOOK TO START
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT TIMING...SO POPS DURING THAT TIME
ARE PRETTY LOW.

AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES TO DIVERGE THE FURTHER IN TIME WE
GO AND CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS FAIRLY QUIET THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH THE GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AFFECTING THE CWA IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT HUDSON BAY LOW
SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN
LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...NOT MUCH
CHANGE WITH THE CWA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THE WARMEST AIR MASS WITH
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE COOLER AIR WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...THOUGH EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD A FEW UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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