000
FXUS63 KGID 020457
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1057 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MITCHELL COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED
AS SNOW HAS ENDED AND VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

...BITTER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD COLD IS IN PLACE AND IT WILL FEEL
AND LOOK MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN MARCH THRU AT LEAST TOMORROW...

ALOFT: LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN USA.
THE REGION WILL BE PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SRN STREAM
THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW MOVING INTO CA WAS FILLING AND OPENING UP.
IT WILL HEAD THRU THE DESERT SW TONIGHT...AND ARRIVE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS TOMORROW. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF THAT EJECTED FROM THIS
LOW WAS CURRENTLY OVER SD. THIS TROF WILL RACE INTO MN.

THE EXIT OF THE TROF WILL PROBABLY BRING THE VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER
S-CNTRL NEB TO AN END. MOST OF THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL STRATUS DWELLING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /DGZ/
ALTHOUGH THESE ARE PITIFUL DENDRITES. AS THE ARCTIC AIR
DEEPENS...THE DGZ WILL EXIT THE STRATUS.

SURFACE: UNSEASONABLY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER WRN CANADA
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIP S INTO THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS THRU
TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN A DUSTING. SOME BEEFIER/DEEPER SNOW BANDS COULD BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1 MILE.

WE HAVE CONVERTED THE WIND CHILL WATCH TO AN ADVISORY THAT NOW
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. IT`S SHAKY OVER N-CNTRL KS BUT
BLENDS WELL WITH SURROUNDING KS OFFICES.

A WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR MITCHELL COUNTY KS FOR
1-3" OF SNOW. POSSIBLY 4" SE OF BELOIT?

TONIGHT: POTENTIAL FOR RECORD COLD LOWS.

AS THE MAIN TROF ADVANCES THRU THE DESERT SW...A COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE WILL EVOLVE AND EXPECT A FGEN BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER CNTRL AND NORTHEAST KS. THE MESOSCALE FGEN FORCING WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED AND AMPLIFIED BY DEEP LAYER QG FORCING.

THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY IN ACCUM. SEE QPF SECTION BELOW.
BELIEVE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE WAY TOO BROAD WITH THEIR QPF
GIVEN THAT A FGEN BANDS ARE MESOSCALE AND VERY NARROW. WHAT DOES
THIS MEAN? WE MAY HAVE THE MENTION OF SNOW WAY TOO FAR N INTO
S-CNTRL NEB. ONCE THIS VERY LIGHT SNOW DISSIPATES...IT IS PROBABLE
THAT S-CNTRL NEB WILL JUST BE DRY AND CLOUDY THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF N-CNTRL KS.

QPF: THE 06Z/12Z GFS RUNS ARE THE HIGHEST WITH .25" TO NEAR .45" S
OF A LINE FROM PLAINVILLE-OSBORNE-MANKATO. THE 06Z/12Z NAM-NMM AND
12Z HI-RES GEM HAVE A STRIP OF 0.75 TO 1.25" ALONG OR JUST S OF
I-70. FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH...THE 15Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .25"
ARE GREATEST JUST S AND E OF OUR N-CNTRL KS COUNTIES. THAT DOES
NOT NECESSARILY MEAN THAT HIGHER AMTS CAN`T HAPPEN.

WIND CHILLS: LOW TEMPS WERE NUDGED SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST N OF I-80...AND WINDS WERE MODESTLY TRIMMED. THIS
PUT FCST WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. BUNDLE UP IN YOU`RE
HEADED OUT TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.

LOW TEMPS ARE AN EVEN BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS GID FCST...GFS
MOS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS40. LOWS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN N OF HWY 6
DUE TO DIFFICULTY DETERMINING HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
RADIATING.

TOMORROW: A BITTERLY COLD AND CLOUDY START. ANY SNOW FALLING OVER
N-CNTRL KS WILL END BY MIDDAY...AND PROBABLY EVEN BY 9 AM. SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...BUT DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN
SOME BREAKS. AS LOW CLOUDS ERODE THEY WILL ONLY REVEAL EXTENSIVE
PATCHES OF HIGHER CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS ARE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL
PROBABLY GO DOWN AS THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGH ON RECORD FOR MARCH
2ND FOR THE REGION /AND OFFICIALLY AT GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS/.

SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE ON THIS RARE BRUTAL COLD FOR
EARLY MARCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

THE PRIMARY THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD INVOLVES MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH AT LEAST TWO DAYS...MOST PROBABLY THURS-FRI AS
IT CURRENTLY STANDS...CURRENTLY APPEARING TO BE DECENT CANDIDATES
FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WE HAVE SEEN
IN AWHILE. PRIOR TO THE WARM-UP...SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MAY BE
CLOSE TO NEEDING ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN SOME AREAS...BUT
WITH HEADLINES ALREADY IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAVE
OPTED TO JUST CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WISE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE CERTAINLY NO
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS APPARENT INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE A
SMATTERING OF 20-30 POPS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR TUES NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT ALL OF THESE
CURRENTLY LOW-END CHANCES ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...HAVE KEPT
THINGS SIMPLE BY CALLING IT EITHER SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THAT
BEING SAID...THERMAL PROFILES PER THE GFS DO SUGGEST THAT IF IN
FACT PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP AROUND THAT WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME...THAT ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
POSSIBLY INCLUDING SLEET/FREEZING RAIN COULD COME INTO PLAY.
HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT ITS RARELY WISE TO THROW
MIXED-PHASE WINTRY PRECIP TYPES INTO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MORE THAN A FEW DAYS OUT WHEN
UNCERTAINTY IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL VERY HIGH...SO THIS IS WHY
PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO SNOW AND OR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW.

GETTING INTO FURTHER DETAIL AND STARTING WITH SUNDAY
NIGHT...NEARLY ALL MODELS CLEARLY DEPICT THAT THE NORTH EDGE OF
ANY ONGOING SNOW IN KANSAS SHOULD BE RELEGATED AT LEAST 60+ MILES
SOUTH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA...SO THE ENTIRE EVENING/NIGHT
REMAINS SNOW-FREE IN THE FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS
THE HEART OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS FROM SOUTHERN
KS/OK EARLY IN THE EVENING...EASTWARD TOWARD THE MEMPHIS AREA BY
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD
AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A ROUGHLY 1040 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NEB/IA BORDER REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SUSTAINED NORTH-
NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE FROM 5-15 MPH RIGHT AWAY IN
THE EVENING...TO GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THE
COMBINATION OF AT LEAST DECENT CLEARING AND LIGHT BREEZES SHOULD
RESULT IN A FAIRLY DECENT TEMPERATURE DROP...BUT GIVEN THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA NOW APPEARS TO FEATURE LESS SNOW COVER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW
COLD IT WILL GET. AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP LOWS 1-2 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...BUT STILL AIMING FOR VERY COLD READINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN
-2 AND -10 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THE NET RESULT FOR
OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS IS VALUES AT LEAST BRIEFLY
DROPPING INTO THE -10 AND -17 RANGE AT SOME POINT...ALTHOUGH THE
COVERAGE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA -20 OR COLDER CURRENTLY APPEARS TO
BE QUITE LIMITED...AND MAINLY ONLY UP IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWA.
OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS CAN GET ANOTHER LOOK AT WHETHER A
WIND CHILL HEADLINE MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN
PRECIPITATION FREE-WEATHER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE DAYTIME...
ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS HINT THAT SOME SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACTIVITY
COULD BRUSH ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE SKIRTING BY MAINLY JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT ANY PRECIP MENTION...EVEN THE
NON-MEASURABLE VARIETY. AT THE SURFACE...INCREASED SOUTHERLY WIND
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS...NOW CALLING FOR
SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL OBVIOUSLY PUT SOME BITE IN THE AIR...THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SUCH AS EVIDENT AT 850
MILLIBARS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT REBOUND FROM THE BITTER COLD
OF SUNDAY. IN FACT...NUDGED UP HIGHS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES IN MOST
PLACES...NOW CALLING FOR UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 IN THE EASTERN CWA TO
MID-UPPER 20S IN THE FAR WEST. ALSO NUDGED UP MONDAY NIGHT LOWS A
LITTLE...WITH MOST PLACES PROGGED TO DROP NO LOWER THAN THE 6-13
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS CONTAINS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES CURRENTLY CONFINED TO ONLY THE TUES NIGHT-
WED DAYTIME TIME FRAME...AS ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPS
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ALTHOUGH DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SQUEEZE
OUT MUCH PRECIP IN THE TUESDAY DAYTIME PERIOD...AND IT HAS BEEN
LEFT DRY...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE FOR TUES NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY DAYTIME AS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE
PASSES THROUGH. AS EARLIER MENTIONED...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
STILL FAIRLY HIGH ON THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP AT ALL...HAVE JUST
GONE WITH SNOW/RAIN CHANCES. TEMP-WISE...NUDGED UP TUESDAY A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS NOW GENERALLY CALLING FOR A 30-40 RANGE FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...BUT NUDGED DOWN WED HIGHS SLIGHTLY GIVEN
EXPECTATION OF MORE CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP...THUS YIELDING VERY
SIMILAR HIGHS TO THOSE OF TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DAYTIME...THE FORECAST REMAINS VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION...AS THE AREA AT LEAST TEMPORARILY REMAINS VOID OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH ITS NO GUARANTEE THAT THIS TIME FRAME REMAINS
PRECIP FREE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP
POTENTIAL IN OR NEAR THE CWA ESPECIALLY BY THURS NIGHT/FRI AS A
MODEST WAVE ENTERS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GOOD
WARM AIR ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MAKE THURS THE MILDEST
DAY WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME TIME...AND ALTHOUGH HIGHS WERE NUDGED
DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY...STILL HAVE A SOLID COVERAGE OF MID-UPPER 40S
EAST TO MID-UPPER 50S WEST. FRIDAY THEN COOLS DOWN A BIT BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT...BUT DECENT MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S IN NEB ZONES...AND
LOW-MID 50S IN KS.

FINALLY FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY TIME FRAME...HAVE INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW CWA-WIDE BASED ON THE DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS...BUT
ITS STILL UP IN THE AIR WHETHER OR NOT THIS SLIGHT POP MAY
ACTUALLY BE MORE WARRANTED FOR FRIDAY DAYTIME THAN FRIDAY
NIGHT...JUST DEPENDS ON MODEL TIMING. SATURDAY DAYTIME REMAINS DRY
AT LEAST FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

A 1040MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ONTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING. DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND HAVE KEPT CIGS AT
VFR BUT DID INCLUDE A SCATTERED MVFR DECK THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO GET HIGH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN MARCH. IT HAS ONLY HAPPENED 5 TIMES EVER AT GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS.

THREATENED DAILY LOW TEMP RECORDS TOMORROW:
GRAND ISLAND: -5 IN1960 (CURRENT FORECAST LOW: -5)
HASTINGS: -5 IN 1913 (CURRENT FORECAST LOW: -4)

THREATENED COLDEST DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TOMORROW:
GRAND ISLAND: 10 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 6)
HASTINGS: 11 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 6)

ALL-TIME COLDEST HIGH TEMPS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:

GRAND ISLAND: 4 ON 3/10/1948
HASTINGS: 3 ON 3/11/1948

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
     KSZ005>007-017-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ019.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/PFANNKUCH