Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 310833
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
333 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE RATHER QUIET
WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CONCERNS WILL BE A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THE LAST
FEW MORNINGS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF OUR
WESTERN MOST ZONES.

MORNING FOG POTENTIAL...THE SFC WINDS ARE JUST A LITTLE STRONGER
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND JUST OFF THE SFC IS ALSO
A LITTLE STRONGER ALLOWING FOR MORE MIXING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE WIND IS STILL SOUTHERLY TO EVEN A BIT
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH VERY LOW SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. YET
WITH MORE MIXING THIS MORNING...BELIEVE THAT MOST PLACES SHOULD
SEE VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1 MILE AND HENCE ANOTHER DENSE FOG HEADLINE
DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE 00Z NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS ALL KEEP
ANY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM AND A
FEW WRF MODELS BRING INTO OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES WHAT WOULD AMOUNT
TO JUST A COUPLE REMNANT SPRINKLES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN
TUESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
OVERALL SUPPORT BY MOST MODELS LEADS TO ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CALL
FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE
TRI-CITIES SOUTH AND EAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO WARM WITH
OUR TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG AND
STRATUS SOMETIMES LINGERING A BIT LONGER THAN IT SHOULD. WE HAVE
ALSO HAD FAIRLY THICK SMOKE AT TIMES FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES
THAT HAVE DIMMED THE INTENSITY OF THE AFTERNOON SUN. WOULD
CERTAINLY NOT WANT TO GO ABOVE FORECAST GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES
RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE RECENT TRACK RECORD AND WILL TEND TO GO RIGHT
NEAR GUIDANCE TO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN A FEW SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

ALOFT: SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS WEEK WITH A
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE W COAST AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TX/NM INTO
ERN CANADA. CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF
EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN USA TROF LATE IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY
INCREASING THE THREAT OF SCT TSTMS. BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW
THIS FAR OUT AS FCST VORT MAXIMA ARE GENERATED BY MODELED CONVECTION
AND ARE PROBABLY SPURIOUS.

FCST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT SUN. INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE NRN PAC COULD FORCE THE W COAST TROF INTO
THE WRN USA. HOWEVER...THE 18Z/00Z GFS AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN
APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DEAMPLIFY THE FLOW. THE 12Z/00Z EC AND GEM
REMAIN MUCH MORE POTENT WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WRN USA. PREFER
THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION AS THE REMNANTS OF HRCN IGNACIO WILL BE
RECURVING BTWN HI AND AK. THIS ARGUES FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED E PAC
RIDGE.

SURFACE: WITH NO PROGRESSION IN THE FLOW ALOFT...THE FCST AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR ALL WEEK...WITH HIGH PRES PARKED OVER THE
ERN USA AND THE POLAR FRONT QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE WRN USA INTO
CNTRL CANADA. THIS FRONT COULD APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW
SUN OR MON 9/7. THE MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AGAIN...NOT MUCH TO ADD FOR DAILY DETAILS. WE CONT IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE MINIMAL. MODEL QPFS CONT TO BE
SPOTTY AND LIGHT DUE TO MODELS STRUGGLING WITH WEAK FORCING. DON`T
BET ON ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY S-SE
WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH EACH DAY. THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY INDICATED
IN THE FCST BEYOND WED. SO FCST WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE INCREASING IN
FUTURE FCSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING. FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY THIS MORNING AS IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS AND
EVEN IF WE DO SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING
AT VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 5 MILES RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. FOG CHANCES
DECREASE AS YOU HEAD WEST AND THUS HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE KEAR
TAF FOR NOW. THE WIND WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND BACK A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD IS PRETTY MUCH A CERTAINTY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY


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