Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 240911
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
411 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Plenty of cirrus and breezy winds this morning are helping to
maintain very mild temperatures across the region. With a few
light showers popping up to our west the last couple of
hours...opted to keep a slight chance for a light shower or
sprinkle north of I-80 through around noon...as additional light
showers potentially develop and track northeast. Otherwise...
expect a variably cloudy day with very mild afternoon temperatures
across the local area as a surface trough tracks across the area
from the west and 850 MB temps warm a couple of degrees above
yesterday values.

With the surface trough approaching...expect winds to slowly
diminish across the region through the early afternoon
hours...with the strong southerly winds expected to
correspondingly shift off to the east by afternoon. So while it
will be a breezy start to the day, a somewhat more pleasant
afternoon is expected as temperatures soar to near 80 in spots and
winds decrease from west to east. Thanks to some moisture
advection across the region and more shallow mixing anticipated
this afternoon...fire weather concerns appear diminished from 24
hours ago...and opted to no longer mention near critical fire
weather conditions in the HWO.

As we then transition into the evening and overnight
hours...expect the surface cold front to encroach on our local
area with some modest elevated instability preceding its passage.
As a result...went ahead and introduced the possibility of some
non-severe isolated thunderstorms during the pre-dawn hours. With
this cold front not expected to cross the local area until later
in the day Tuesday...expect another mild night...with overnight
low temperatures running 5-10 degrees above normal for late April.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

The forecast discussion detailing the extended portions of the
forecast will be issued later this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Significant LLWS evident in VWP this morning. Expect this wind
shear to continue through the early morning hours...likely not
diminishing significantly until around 24/15Z as the LLJ shifts
eastward and decreases across the local area. Otherwise...expect
significant high cloud cover to continue to stream across the
local area through the period...eventually lowering to near 12kft
during the late afternoon or evening hours. Otherwise...this TAF
remained primarily a wind forecast as precip chances and lower
CIGS are anticipated to come aft 25/06Z. So expect strong
southerly winds to mix to the surface again during the morning
hours...gradually diminishing by early afternoon as the pressure
gradient begins to relax ahead of an approaching cold front. This
will likely result in shifting light winds during the evening
hours...with northerly winds anticipated with the actual cold
front just beyond the current valid period of the TAFs.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Rossi


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