Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
119
FXUS63 KGID 130008
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
608 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

WANT TO MAKE THIS VERY CLEAR UP FRONT: FOR THESE NEXT 24 HOURS NOT
FEATURING ANY "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST
WITH REGARD TO SEVERAL ELEMENTS...MOST NOTABLY TRYING TO FIGURE
OUT WHETHER (OR NOT) LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE ANY KIND OF ISSUE MAINLY WITHIN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.
AT THIS POINT...UNFORTUNATELY THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IS STILL
HIGH ENOUGH THAT THIS COULD ONE OF SEVERAL DIRECTIONS. ON ONE
HAND...ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA COULD BE MINIMAL ENOUGH/LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT
ESSENTIALLY RESULTS IN NO IMPACTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ESPECIALLY PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA COULD SEE ENOUGH
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MAKE UNTREATED ROADS SLICK...AND THAT THERE
COULD BE A "SNEAKY INCH" OR SO OF SNOW TONIGHT IN NORTHERN
AREAS...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LOUP CITY-FAIRMONT LINE. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A "MIDDLE GROUND"
BETWEEN THE "BEST" AND "WORST" CASE SCENARIOS FOR NOW...SO PLEASE
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES/ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE UPCOMING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFTS. FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IS RUNNING
FAIRLY HIGH ON AT LEAST ONE THING: SATURDAY WILL BE THE OUTRIGHT-
COLDEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING- TREND
ARRIVING THEREAFTER (SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW FOR THE DETAILS).

STARTING WITH A QUICK LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 330PM...THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER A FAIRLY SOLID BLANKET OF LOW
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND ALL DAY...BUT PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE CWA HAVE SEEN A GREATER-THAN-EXPECTED EROSION OF
THIS LOW CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA INDICATE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES OF NOTE NEARBY...AS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS A DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...DESPITE SOME
PARTIAL SUN FOR SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS HAVE REMAINED
FAIRLY STEADY TO SLOWLY-FALLING THANKS TO SLOW-BUT STEADY COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS ESSENTIALLY BACKED UP
AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE TO OUR
WEST. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM MID-UPPER 20S
NORTHEAST TO MID-UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST. BREEZES ARE MAINLY OUT OF
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 7-15 MPH. ALSO OF NOTE...AND AS MENTIONED
IN AN UPDATE DISCUSSION A FEW HOURS AGO...A NARROW/TRANSIENT BAND
OF FOG IS LIKELY PASSING THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA AT THIS TIME...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 1 MILE OR
LESS AS IT PASSES...BUT ONLY LASTING A SHORT TIME IN ANY GIVEN
AREA.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: SEE THE OPENING PARAGRAPH FOR SOME INSIGHT
ON THE UNCERTAINTIES/CAVEATS TO THIS FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...WITH AGAIN LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF NOTICEABLE DISTURBANCES/STRONG FORCING. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SUBTLE FORCING BOTH IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. IN
THE LOW-LEVELS...THE LOW STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH AT
LEAST WITHIN THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA OR SO...AND AS FLOW IN
THOSE LOWEST LEVELS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY...THIS
COULD PROMOTE A FAVORABLE REGIME FOR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY PER THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE. MEANWHILE...IN THE MID LEVELS...A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED BAND OF SATURATION/LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PASS
FROM WEST-TO-EAST OVER THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET OVER
THE MIDWEST STATES. THIS COULD BRING A QUICK DUSTING TO MAYBE A
HALF-INCH OR MORE OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHETHER OR NOT FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW BECOMES MUCH
OF AN ISSUE...BOTH OF THESE THINGS ARE LEAST FAVORED WITHIN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA...AND MORE FAVORED IN THE WEST AND
NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...BREEZES OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME AND AVERAGE GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. RAISED
LOW TEMPS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DUE TO THE COMBO OF
THESE BREEZES AND ALSO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...AIMING FROM
AROUND 10 DEGREES FAR NORTHEAST TO AROUND 20 FAR SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY DAYTIME: AGAIN THE PRECIP UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE...BUT
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW IN NORTH/NORTHEAST ZONES SHOULD BE LARGELY
COMING TO AN END SOMETIME IN THE MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAND OF MID LEVEL SATURATION/LIFT DEPARTS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABUNDANT OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY AND WITH AT LEAST
WEAK LIFT/WARM-AIR ADVECTION INTO THE STRATUS LAYER...MODELS SUCH
AS THE NAM REMAIN QUITE AGGRESSIVE ON LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
REMAINING AN ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA. AGAIN...THE NAM SOMETIMES ENDS UP BEING OVERDONE
WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CHANCES
WELL-BELOW "LIKELY" 60+ PERCENT TERRITORY...BUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE IS THERE AND CANNOT BE IGNORED. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
BECOME A BIT BREEZY DURING THE DAY AVERAGING 15-20 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THESE SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...THE COLD START AND WHAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL COLD. MADE VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HERE...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM
LOW-MID 20S NORTHEAST TO LOW-MID 30S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE
TEMPERATURES...SPECIFICALLY THE DEGREE OF WARMUP AS THE WORK WEEK
PROGRESSES.

BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOULD LOOK A BIT
DIFFERENT FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TO BREAK
DOWN AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY
SUNSET SATURDAY THAT WAVE SHOULD BE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHEAST
WYOMING. BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...SO WE SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
THE NAM DOES BRING THE WAVE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GIVE THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA A SHOT AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER AMONGST THE MODELS.

STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THE WORKWEEK A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS PUTS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IN NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY ON AND
WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE OF WAVE OR TWO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR LOW  BUT NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW EXCEPT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LARGER FACTOR WILL BE HOW DO THESE WAVES INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES.
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS WITH THE FIRST ONE STARTING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN FROM SOUTH TO WNW. MORE OF A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARMER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY
AND HIGHS SHOULD BE SOME 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. AFTER THAT
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB EVER SO SLOWLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COULD BE
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY WED WITH HIGHS 10-15
DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST VS THE SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT THE FRONT
SHOULD LIFT OUT LATER ON WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST WITH THE AXIS OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY. EC AND GFS HAVE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS US FRIDAY BUT THEY DIFFER IN THE
TIMING WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER. NEITHER MODEL GENERATING MUCH
PRECIP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AT THIS TIME BUT THAT WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROGS FOR 850 MB SHOW A STEADY WARMUP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. LOOKING AT A RANDOM POINT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
CWA...850 MB TEMPS ARE SLATED TO INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT VALUE OF
-4C TO +15 OR 20C BY NEXT THUR OR FRI.  THIS ALONE WOULD WARRANT A
LARGE INCREASE IN TEMPS BUT WILL TEMPER THOSE SOMEWHAT FOR NOW BASED
ON A COUPLE OF FACTORS.  I WOULD THINK WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE LATE NEXT WEEK BUT A COUPLE OF THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ARE
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AMPLE CIRRUS SHIELD. ALSO...EVEN IF WE
MELT MOST OF THIS SNOWPACK...THE SOIL IS GOING TO REMAIN SATURATED
FOR AWHILE...SLOWLY THE WARMUP JUST A LITTLE. STILL...THE EXTENDED
LOOKS QUITE NICE AS COMPARED TO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THIS IS A DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO
EVENTUALLY MOVE IN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CEILINGS
ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST. KEAR AND KGRI SHOULD BOTH HAVE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
CEILINGS MORE CONSISTENTLY RISE BACK TO VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING PRIMARILY
FROM KEARNEY WEST...BUT CAN NOT RULE IT OUT IN THE KGRI AREA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...WESELY



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.