Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 280526
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1126 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RATHER QUIET COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WE HAVE A
RECAP OF YESTERDAYS SNOW EVENT POSTED TO OUR  AND SOCIAL MEDIA
PLATFORMS...SO PLEASE FEEL FREE TO READ OVER THAT INFORMATION FOR
A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE EVENT.

A SURFACE HIGH HAS SLID IN OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE NOW IN PLACE...AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EVENTUALLY...THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD...AND THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AROUND 18Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
AREAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY BE AS WARM AS ABOUT 10 TO
12 DEGREES FOR LOWS. HIGHS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RANGE BETWEEN
25 AND ABOUT 37 DEGREES...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE OUTLOOK AREA UNDER
SNOW COVER STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 32 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW...NEAR 30000FT AGL...WILL BE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO
START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z MONDAY. A STRENGTHENING
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO HELP MAINTAIN QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW OVER OUR AREA UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AND CLEARS OUR
AREA NEXT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. A LITTLE LOWER THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE...CLOSER TO 20000FT AGL...A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CLEARING OUR AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TYPIFY AND TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH MEAGER THERMAL ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND PERHAPS FOR A TIME MONDAY EVENING. AN OVERALL LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD THEN PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PROVIDES
ANOTHER CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-40% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN 20- 30% POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES
LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST...TO AROUND 0.20" ACROSS OUR NORTH 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY. A BLEND OF THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO SUGGESTS SNOW-
WATER RATIOS WILL START IN THE 12-15:1 RANGE AT 06Z MONDAY...BUT
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 16-20:1 RANGE BY 06Z TUESDAY...WHICH LINES UP
PRETTY WELL WITH WP/ GUIDANCE. TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO
CONSIDERATION WOULD PROVIDE 1-3 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS OUR
CWA 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME
POTENTIALLY COMPLICATING FACTORS WHICH NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. THIS
REALLY IS A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE...SO MUCH IN FACT MODEL DATA ONLY
SHOWS IT NEAR 700MB...WITH LITTLE IF ANY INDICATION OF THE WAVE AT
500MB OR HIGHER. ALSO...AS IS TYPICAL WITH MOST CLIPPER
SYSTEMS...THE TRUE MAGNITUDE OF THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT
OMEGA REALLY IS IN QUESTION AND THUS...ITS HARD TO SAY IF THE
~0.20" LIQUID PRECIPITATION BEING SUGGESTED ACROSS OUR NORTH WILL
BE REALIZED. BASED ON WP/ GRAPHICS...IT APPEARS WP AGREES AND
GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO CUT THE AFOREMENTIONED LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BY AS MUCH AS HALF AND AS A RESULT...THE
CURRENT LIQUID PRECIPITATION FORECAST 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY STANDS AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST...TO AROUND 0.10" ACROSS OUR NORTH. ASSUMING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW- WATER RATIOS PROVIDES STORM-TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS OUR SOUTH...TO ALMOST
TWO INCHES ACROSS OUR NORTH 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THIS
ESSENTIALLY DOUBLES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
COMPARED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST...BUT DOES NOT YET GO AS HIGH
AS MODEL GUIDANCE. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SHOULD IT APPEAR HIGHER
LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE REALIZED THUS RESULTING IN
GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...AN INCREASING BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT POST-FROPA WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SUSTAINED AT 15-
20KTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. THIS COULD CERTAINLY CREATE
PERIODIC VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BLOWING SNOW AND AS A
RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...THE BIGGEST WEATHER IMPACT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY
RESIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURE READINGS AS AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS INFILTRATES THE AREA STARTING MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MONDAY...HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS
ON TUESDAY. THANKFULLY...A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
RECOVERY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO ARE THEN
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. AT THIS TIME IT ALSO APPEARS
APPARENT TEMPERATURE VALUES OF -10 TO -20 WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND GIVEN
THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A MENTION OF SUCH CONDITIONS IN
THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

WRF CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LATE IN THE
PERIOD MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN. SOME CONCERN ABOUT
LOWER VISIBILITIES LATE THIS EVENING /LAST 3-4 HOURS OF FORECAST/
WITH A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST WIND AND SOME MELT...BUT WAIN/T
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ



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