Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 260349
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A FEW FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
120-140KT JET STREAK NEAR 200MB EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A ~100KT JET STREAK
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 200MB JET STREAK
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THUS PROMOTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA...OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE 500MB
JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND IS PROMOTING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
KUEX INDICATES PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING
THE SURFACE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...OVERALL OUR CWA IS CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...1KM WRF-NMM AND 1KM WRF-
ARW ALL SUGGEST THIS IS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SNOW FLURRY
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

AS OF 03Z THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW INTO OUR CWA...AND THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN INCREASING SURFACE
WIND POST-FROPA HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING ABOVE ~20KTS AND
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THIS MAY BE THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND INTENSITY ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. THERE
WAS CONCERN EARLIER TODAY THAT A DEVELOPING 40-50KT WIND FIELD
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE A HEFTY GUST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT US FROM ANY SUCH GUST POTENTIAL. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO
DECREASE THE FORECAST WIND SPEED ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERCAST TO BROKEN SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CEILING NEAR 7000FT AGL
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ONE SET OF
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE REALIZED AT TIMES
TONIGHT...BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER SETS OF
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A VERY
STRONG SURFACE WIND THROUGH THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 24KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 34KTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT


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