Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 262133
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
333 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

AT 21Z...SNOWFALL WAS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD AREAS
EAST THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED...AND
GENERALLY 1 TO 3 ACROSS THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. FOR THE HEART
OF THE CWA...WHICH IS BASICALLY THE TRI-CITIES...WE ARE CONFIDENT
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY FALL BETWEEN 6PM AND 9 PM TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 11PM/MIDNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. FOR 00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR GRAND ISLAND SHOWED THE
STRONGEST OMEGA VALUES WHICH COINCIDED WITH A MOIST DGZ
LAYER...HENCE THE CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME.
ALSO HELPING CREATE A FAVORABLE TIME FRAME FOR HEAVIEST SNOW AROUND
00Z IS AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT CENTERED THROUGH MOST OF THE
CWA...ALBEIT THIS TIME FRAME IS LIMITED TO ABOUT 3 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...WE QUICKLY BEGIN TO LOSE FORCING AND MOISTURE...SO
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL RETREAT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.

CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY SKIES MID TO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH MID/UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SUGGEST HAVING THE HEAVY WINTER COATS/GLOVES/HATS READY AND THOSE
WHO USE WOOD STOVES FOR HEAT KEEP PLENTY OF WOOD CLOSE BY. WE ARE IN
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SERIOUS WINTER COLD...BUT THIS TIME MUCH
COLDER THAN NOV!

THE COLDEST HIGH TEMP IN GRAND ISLAND /GRI/ WAS 20F ON THE NOV 17TH.
WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS COLD SEASON. WE HAVE
TWO DAYS IN THIS FCST IN WHICH HIGHS WILL BE COLDER THAN 20F.

NOT QUITE CONFIDENT YET TO STATE HOW MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS TEMPS
COULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW FRZG. DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS ALWAYS A
WILDCARD BETWEEN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AS THE HIGHS DROP S OF THE
REGION. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE COULD BE A 1 OR 2 DAY INTERRUPTION...
BUT OVERALL BELIEVE WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF COLD
WX BEGINNING MON.

MODELS: THE EC/GFS/UKMET/GEM AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONT IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THRU FRI 1/2 AND ALL THE
WAY OUT THRU 10 DAYS.

THE LONGWAVE FLOW WILL BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NE
PAC INTO AK WITH A DOWNSTREAM +TILT TROF FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
WRN USA. THIS IS THE PATTERN WE SAW IN NOV AND IT WILL DELIVER BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK...WITH A COUPLE TWO-DAY PERIODS OF MUCH BELOW
NORMAL BITTER COLD. THAT MEANS DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WHICH WILL BE 20-25F COLDER THAN NORMAL. AS OF NOW THE COLDEST
DAYS ARE SLATED FOR 12/30-31 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND 1/3-4 WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WITH GENERALLY W FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS
THRU TUE. A SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY CRESTING THE RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF AK. THIS TROF WILL DIVE INTO THE WRN USA SAT-MON AND CUT-OFF
OVER CA TUE...GRADUALLY SINKING INTO THE DESERT SW THRU FRI.
CONFLUENT NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL USA IN THE MEANTIME.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING THRU WRN N AMERICA LATE NEXT WEEK
SHOULD KICK THIS LOW E...RESULTING IN A SIZABLE STORM FOR THE CNTRL/
ERN USA AND ANOTHER COLD SURGE. LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT WX-MAKER WILL BE
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD SAT EVE AND DRIFT S AND E OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS
INTO THE NRN USA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT WITH BITTERLY
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER WRN CANADA SLOWLY SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE. THIS HIGH WILL BE OF THE 1050+ MB VARIETY AND WILL BE
OVERHEAD DAYBREAK WED. IT THEN HEADS INTO THE SRN USA THU-FRI. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS HERALDING THE NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH ITS ARRIVAL PROBABLY NEXT WEEKEND. SRN
PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS IN THE OFFING LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BEEN TO BE WATCHED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

PLEASE GIVE US SOME LATITUDE ON TEMPS. FRESH SNOWCOVER IS ALWAYS A
SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION ON TEMP FORECASTING.

SUN: A SUNNY START...BUT INCREASING MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS.

SUN NIGHT: ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MON: CLOUDY/BLUSTERY AND COLD. STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS IN
COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR MOST LOCATIONS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AT
DAWN. N WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. COULD SEE A BURST OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE.

CANT RULE OUT A WIND-BLOWN INCH OR SO BUT IT/S WAY TOO EARLY AND THE
POTENCY ALOFT IS LACKING. FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH THE 06Z/12Z GFS
INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL...BUT THE SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .10" QPF
ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST ALONG THE NEB-SD BORDER.

TUE: BITTERLY COLD. HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF S-
CNTRL NEB. MID TEENS FOR N-CNTRL KS. WATCH YOUR HOME BAROMETERS. IF
IT/S ARE CALIBRATED...YOU WILL LIKELY SEE PRESSURE EXCEEDING 30.80".

WED: COULD BE A VERY VERY COLD START AS LONG AS CLOUDS ARE NOT A
FACTOR. COLDEST LOCATIONS WOULD BE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS N AND W OF
THE TRI-CITIES...ESPECIALLY THE LOUP RVR VALLEY. HIGH PRES OVERHEAD
TUE NIGHT WOULD RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WINDS.

THU-FRI: MODERATING TEMPS. DRY THU AND PROBABLY FRI. BUT FRI NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED AS LOW PRES WILL BE ORGANIZING S OF THE REGION. GFS
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THIS LOW WILL MISS WELL SE OF THE FCST AREA... BUT
A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

CONDITIONS ARE ONLY GOING TO DETERIORATE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN.
CURRENTLY SITTING AT MVFR CONDITIONS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND DECREASING CEILINGS.
EXPECTED IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...QUICKLY TURNING TO LIFR
CONDITIONS AROUND 00Z WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. WE
SHOULD START TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR WILL LIKELY PERSIST THEREAFTER UNTIL
MID- MORNING SATURDAY WHEN WE START TO CLEAR OUT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     NEZ039>041-046>048-060>062-072>074-082-083.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...GUERRERO


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