Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 152118
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
318 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Upper air and satellite data showing northwesterly flow building
into the area, set up between a departing trough axis to the east
and broad ridging over the Rockies. Outside of a bit of upper
level cirrus streaming in from the northwest, the CWA has seen a
lot more sun than the past couple of days. At the surface, high
pressure extends from the southern High Plains northward into
central Canada, resulting in northwesterly winds across the area.
Increased mixing with more sun has kept the winds gusty at times,
mainly across the northeastern half of the CWA, gusts have been in
the 20-25 MPH range at times.

Looking to tonight/tomorrow, overall no significant changes were
made to the forecast. Models are in good agreement showing the
upper level flow turning more zonal with time, as that broad
ridging is pushed east onto the Plains by a system moving into the
Pac NW. With no notable disturbances moving through, the forecast
remains dry. Winds are expected to become light/variable this
evening as that surface trough axis pushes through, turning to the
southeast later tonight. As we get into tomorrow, a windy day is
expected. Models showing the pressure gradient tightening up
across the region, set up between the departing ridge axis and low
pressure deepening over the High Plains. Southerly winds with
sustained speeds of 20-25 MPH are expected. Temperatures look to
be a few degrees warmer than today, with forecast highs in the mid
50s(east) to lower 60s(southwest).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Tomorrow night into early Friday morning, models showing moisture
advecting northward with the southerly flow, and there is some
concern with the potential for stratus, maybe drizzle, ahead of an
approaching cold front. At this point, kept the drizzle out of
the forecast, similar to what the GFS is showing (NAM brings it
further west into our CWA). In general models have the better
chances just off to our east. A surface cold front is expected to
push through the area at some point during the day on Friday,
there continue to be some timing differences between models. The
concern about stratus, timing of the cold front result in lower
confidence in high temperatures on Friday. Forecast highs at this
point are a blend, lower 60s in the north to upper 60s in the far
SW.

Friday night, the upper level disturbance finally pushes east
through the Rockies, and looks to cross the Central Plains. There
are some timing differences here as well, the GFS is quicker,
NAM/ECMWF a touch slower...but in general the majority of
precipitation looks to be done by/around 12Z Saturday.
Precipitation is expected to swing through from NW to SE with
time, and at this point remains a mainly liquid event. The
GFS/ECMWF/GEM are on the warmer side, it`s the NAM that brings a
little uncertainty, being colder and bringing a better chance of
some snow accumulation (maybe an inch or so). Forecast has rain
for much of the event, with RA/SN then SN building into the
northwest late in the event.

Once this system passes, the weekend and into early portions of
next week remain dry, though Saturday will once again bring
windy conditions behind that passing cold front. Well amplified
northwesterly flow aloft builds in for Saturday behind the system,
gradually turning more zonal by the time we get into Sunday
night. For Mon/Tues, there are some notable differences in the 12Z
GFS/ECMWF (the 12Z GFS was quite a change from the 06Z run). The
ECMWF keeps things dry, showing dual low pressure system going
well to the N and S of the CWA, the GFS shows more zonal flow, and
suggest a more unsettled pattern as we approach the Thanksgiving
holiday. Will keep things dry at this point and see how the models
trend.

As far as temperatures go, generally 40s for highs expected for
Saturday, climbing more into the 50s for Sun/Mon. Have 40s
returning for Tues, but again, not much confidence in those
based off model differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Quiet weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period. A few gusts near 20 MPH will remain possible this
afternoon, but overall speeds will be tapering off. Winds are
expected to become more light/variable this evening, as a surface
ridge axis, then turning more southeasterly later tonight. Gusts
look to pick back up in the final few hours of this period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ADP



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