Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 291739
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1239 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE SKY FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO P/CLDY
DUE TO THE PLUME OF SMOKE E OF HWY 183. THIS SMOKE WILL REFLECT
AND ABSORB SOME OF THE INSOLATION. UNDER THE SMOKE...TEMPS ARE
RUNNING SVRL DEGS BELOW THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. SO HIGHS WERE
LOWERED 2-3F AND THEY MAY NEED TO COME DOWN FURTHER. TOUGH TO ACCT
FOR THIS DUE TO UNFORESEEABLE VARIATIONS IN THE THICKNESS AND
LOCATION OF THE PLUME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS STEERING ANY
POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR EAST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WITH ONLY A FEW
PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE AS A
SURFACE RIDGE TRANSITIONS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG WITH THE SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES...EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...MAKING FOR A WARM BUT PLEASANT AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WHILE IT
REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY...MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BRUSHES EASTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE SEASONABLE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN THE TYPICALLY COOLEST SPOTS...TO THE MID 60S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS FAIRLY SIMILAR
BETWEEN THE MODELS. A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST
HAS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING OFF THE
PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND THERE IS LESS AMPLITUDE. WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN WHEN THE
MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY THEN BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MOVE TO THE SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE TO THE SOUTH AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER WAVE HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THE
WAVE IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE
IS ANOTHER BREAK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE
MAIN ENERGY FROM THE WAVE IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THERE IS MORE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THERE THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES ARE MAINLY SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR. THE SMOKE IS ESTIMATED AT 20-25K FT AND WILL
NOT BE A PROBLEM AT THE TERMINALS. LIGHT NW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR. SOME SCT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS MAY DRIFT IN AFTER
07Z...BLOW-OFF FROM UPSTREAM TSTMS. LGT AND VRBL WINDS WILL BECOME
SW UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE THRU 18Z: VFR MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS POSSIBLE...AT OR ABOVE 10K
FT. SW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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