Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 201015
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
415 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 413 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

The biggest issue will be fog this morning. I have extended the fog
advisory another couple of hours to go to noon, considering recent
output from the HRRR, RAP, and SREF. Also, it`s a safer bet to go
later with fog advisories in January as the sun angle is still quite
low, and we still have a solid deck of stratus to contend with.

The synoptic trough over the intermountain west is becoming
increasingly negatively tilted today as another lobe of energy is
expected to swing through tonight. In the meantime, pretty much the
same as yesterday with stratus and areas of drizzle, with a small
chance of measurable rain creeping in with the next wave
approaching. Highs will be in the lower to mid 40s. The best
chance of any accumulating rain will be this evening between
roughly 6 pm and midnight. There is decent agreement among
numerical models for this. After the trough axis passes through,
chances of precipitation wane quickly after midnight, but there is
a small chance of some snow at the end of precipitation, but no
appreciable accumulation is anticipated. Lows tonight will end up
in the lower 30s.

Followed closer to CONSshort dewpoints through the short term as it
appears to initialize best, and CONSMOS winds tonight behind the
trough axis. SREF gives a strong signal for more fog development
tonight, but as wind shifts to the west behind the trough, I expect
fog intensity to wane toward 12Z Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 413 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Long term forecast will be out shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Visibility and ceilings will be poor, but it appears that
temporarily, KEAR is experiencing MVFR conditions. Do not expect
this to last long, and a return to LIFR conditions is expected
into Friday morning. There should be some small gradual
improvement by 18Z and into the afternoon on Friday as visibility
increases, and perhaps a small improvement in ceilings for KEAR,
but for the most part, conditions will be rather poor throughout
this forecast.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Heinlein


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