000
FXUS63 KGID 231047
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
547 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 453 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Foggy conditions are starting to improve across the northern
portions of the forecast area this morning as modeled by the
HRRR...and for this reason...decided to let the fog advisory go a
bit early as widespread areas of dense fog are no longer
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

A warm front will continue to lift northward into the Dakotas
today, with one more summer-like afternoon anticipated across the
region. As this front lifts north...expect an area of low pressure
to deepen on the lee side of the Rockies...resulting in a tight
pressure gradient across the local area. This will result in a
breezy/windy afternoon across the region...with 30 to 35 mph wind
gusts expected at times. In addition...with the warm southerly
flow...temperatures should have no problem soaring into the mid to
upper 80s by the afternoon hours...or about 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for this time of year.

As we transition into the late afternoon/evening hours...expect
the warm front to our north to begin to transition and track
southeastward towards the local area as a cold front...resulting
in increasing clouds and a chance for showers and thunderstorms...
especially during the late afternoon through overnight hours. In
addition...with continued breezy conditions expected ahead of this
front...expect one more mild night across the region, with low
temperatures bottoming out near or just below 70 degrees in spots.
While widespread severe storms are not anticipated...there could
be a strong thunderstorm or two ahead of the approaching cold front
as instability increases during the overnight hours and shear
values near 40kts are forecast by early Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

An upper level low pressure system in the northern Rockies is
expected to move into the northern plains Saturday and Saturday
night. A cold front moves into the forecast area Saturday morning.
Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the front during the
day. The best chances for thunderstorms appear to be in the eastern
part of the forecast area. The front will be in the eastern part of
the area during the afternoon and there is MUCAPE over 3000 j/kg
during the afternoon. The CAPE decreases during the late afternoon
and into the evening. The front moves to the east during the evening
and thunderstorms should move out of the area during the overnight
hours.

After the cold front moves out of the area a cool surface high
settles into the area through Tuesday. Skies will be mostly sunny,
winds will be fairly light and temperatures will be cooler with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. After the surface high moves to
the east, winds will turn to the south and there will be a warming
trend Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 508 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Still some LLWS evident in the VWP this morning and opted to keep
this going in the 12Z TAFS through about 23/15Z. Thereafter...
expect surface winds to increase significantly as the pressure
gradient tightens across the region. While VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the majority of the period...expect
some increasing mid/high level clouds during the late night hours
tonight...as a cold front approaches the local area. This front
should bring some scattered SHRAs or TSRAs late tonight...but
until timing and coverage becomes a bit more clear...decided not
to mention this possibility in the TAFS for the time being.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Rossi