Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 022318
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
618 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS ONE LITTLE PATCH OF CLOUDS IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THE LATEST RADAR INDICATES THERE IS
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME.

THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE FRONT STILL TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS
THE FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND AS THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS EVENING THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS A
WEAK WAVE THAT IS FURTHER NORTH. MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THEM KEEP IT NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN IT SLIDES A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OUR BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL SLIDE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER WESTERN CONUS UPPER
RIDGE.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT INSTABILITY AROUND BY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK AT AROUND
10 KTS SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY PULSE UP AND DOWN.
THEREFORE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AND PRIMARILY
A THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS FROM COLLAPSING STORM CELLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH THE CLOUDS...ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE BY LATE SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...OUR BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
OUTER PERIOD APPEAR TO BE THURSDAY EVENING/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITHIN THE
FORECAST MODELS AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE OUTER PERIODS LESS
THAN 50/50 FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE DAYS BEING WHEN THOSE
UPPER TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND
NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF SITES. THE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE BEGINNING AT THE TAF PERIOD AND ONCE
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
THEN EASTERLY. THE WINDS COULD BE GUSTY BRIEFLY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...BEDA


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