Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 191750
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

After making some minor adjustments forecast high temperatures the
next couple of days...opted to extend the heat advisory through
early Friday evening as there is little temperature relief in
sight. While contemplated expanding the heat warning...per
coordination...decided it was best to just maintain current area
for the excessive heat warning and expand in time the heat
advisory to match the time frame of the warning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

I`ve maintained low PoPs through the early morning hours as there is
some isentropic upglide in the the 315K layer. A few spotty showers
have managed to develop, and the HRRR keeps a few in the vicinity as
well. That said, the overwhelming majority of the area will stay
completely dry.

Also this morning, we may see some patchy fog, mainly west of
Highway 281. Despite the cloud cover, the Kearney, Ord, Lexington,
and Holdrege areas have reported reduced visibilities due to the
abundant low-level moisture. If winds can drop off sufficiently,
locally dense fog isn`t completely out of the question, but my
expectation that there will be enough wind to keep it from being a
widespread issue.

The rest of the day should be pretty quiet weather-wise, albeit
quite warm and muggy. Southerly winds will become breezy this
afternoon, with gusts around 20-25 MPH possible at times. These
winds will be welcomed, though. High temperatures in the mid 90s
to low 100s will couple with dewpoints in the 60s-70s to produce
heat index values in the low to mid 100s across the entire area.

The excessive heat warning has been maintained in areas that will
likely see heat indices in the 105 degree range for several days,
and the heat advisory has been maintained for the rest of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Subtropical ridge will be in full force for Thursday and Friday,
with an excessive heat watch in place for this period as the heat
index will top 100, and therefore the heat headlines will still be
in place. As a cold front sags south and the progression of a
shortwave trough into the Northern Plains causes modest height falls
by Friday afternoon, we could have just enough of a focus along the
front with afternoon instability to give us a strong to severe
thunderstorms near the cold front.

The ridge weakens and retreats somewhat over the weekend into next
week with highs in the 80s by Sunday, but also allowing more
shortwave trough activity in, and allowing some thunderstorm
activity from time to time, especially late Monday night with a
potential low-level jet developing, and surface boundary possibly
close by. Although cooler next week, temperatures will still be
fairly typical for this time of year with highs in the 80s and lows
in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure
remains in control of the local weather pattern. Expect
occasionally gusty southerly winds this afternoon...to as high as
20 KTS...to diminish during the evening hours...with a LLJ helping
to generate some LLWS across the local area overnight. As a weak
cold front slowly sags towards the area tomorrow...expect the
pressure gradient to relax a bit...with winds less than 10 KTS
expected throughout the afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for NEZ064-076-077-
     085>087.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>063-072>075-082>084.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ006-007-018-
     019.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Rossi



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