Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241129
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
529 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

...NW WINDS GUST 35-40 MPH WITH ISOLATED G45 WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUDS IN MOSTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...

ALOFT: THE NEWLY REESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WAS SHIFTING E
OF THE FCST AREA. BACK TO NW FLOW THRU TONIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROF TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA WAS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROF
WILL PASS THRU HERE TONIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE COLD SECTOR OF DEEP LOW PRES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
SECTOR THRU TONIGHT. WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
WITH CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC. ITS RIDGE
AXIS WILL PASS THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL FORM OVER WRN
CANADA TONIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION.

529 AM: LOTS OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC NW FLOW...N AND E
OF THE TRI-CITIES. STILL CANT RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY ALTHOUGH
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY IN REGIONAL OBS RECENTLY.

BBW MEASURED A G39 KTS AT 421 AM. THAT IS INDICATIVE OF WHAT OUR
MAX WIND POTENTIAL IS TODAY ONCE CONVECTIVE MIXING COMMENCES.


TODAY: CONTINUED WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS IN DOWNWARD
TRANSFER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE. POTENTIAL PEAK
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS PER BUFKIT MIXING ALGORITHM. USED GFS
WITH ITS DEEPER MIXING.

THE RAP/NAM/GFS AGREE THE WRN FRINGE OF THE WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE FCST AREA LEAVING SKIES SUNNY.
SIMULATED IR IMAGERY FROM THE 4 KM NAM NEST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHES
OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE AND THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...WITH THE NRN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING TO OUR W.

INTERNAL VERIFICATION SHOWS WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON HIGH
TEMPS RECENTLY. SO USED 06Z RAP TO NUDGE TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5-10F COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

TONIGHT: WINDS DROP OFF EARLY EVENING WITH DECOUPLING. PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS CONT TO DRIFT THRU BUT SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN
P/CLOUDY.

USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING TEMP GUIDES
FOR LOWS...WHICH FAVORED THE COLDER MOS TEMPS. JUST SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BIG HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS FAST APPROACHING AND NO TRAVEL
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ALWAYS REMEMBER
YOU CAN CHECK WWW.WEATHER.GOV FOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND FORECAST FOR ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY WHERE YOU MIGHT BE
TRAVELING TO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
CENTER AROUND SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE
STRONG NORTHWEST WIND OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE THAT WILL HELP TO WARM HIGHS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST NEBRASKA ZONES TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE 00Z GFS TRYING TO BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT
INTO NEBRASKA ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE
BOTH SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ARE DRY. THIS FORECAST LEANS
TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR
TWO...BUT GIVEN MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DRY...WE WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND WITHHOLD ANY FLURRIES FOR NOW. FORECAST
MODELS ARE NOT AS COLD WITH THIS AIRMASS AS THEY WERE SEVERAL DAYS
AGO AND EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...UNFORTUNATELY THE HOLIDAY ITSELF APPEARS TO THE BE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS THE COOLER AIR THAT SETTLES IN ON
WEDNESDAY MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER AND SO WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING DAY
EVENTUALLY GET RAISED SOME. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE
OVERALL SUPERBLEND OF MODELS...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID
30S IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE
DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH JUST A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND. SATURDAY IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON OUR
DOOR STEP. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
INDICATES THAT HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 60S...BUT THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH
THE 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE REALLY DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH ON SUNDAY AS THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW COLD THE NEXT AIR MASS WILL BE.
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED DOWNWARD AND WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY WHILE OUR FORECAST STILL
IS INCORPORATING RECENT RUNS THAT WERE WARMER AND IS CALLING FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. BASICALLY...EXPECT FORECAST CHANGES IN
THE COMING DAYS AS THE UNCERTAINTY ISSUES GET IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUE MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

TODAY: A PERIOD OF 2000-2500 FT MVFR CIGS APPEARS LIKELY FOR 2-3
HRS THIS MORNING. HIGHEST PROBABILITY AT GRI WHERE WE MADE IT
PREVAILING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT EAR WHERE THE WRN EDGE OF THIS
DECK OF STRATOCU MAY JUST SKIRT THE AIRPORT FOR A TIME. SO HANDLED
WITH JUST A TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR CLEARING AFTER
15Z. NW WINDS WILL GUST 27-32 KTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A PKWND OF 40
KTS. BBW GUSTED TO 39 KTS LAST HOUR. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR PATCHES OF PRIMARILY SCT CIRROSTRATUS. NW WINDS
RAPIDLY DIMINISH 23Z-01Z TO AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
THRU WNW TO W UNDER 10 KTS AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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