Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 222325
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Aloft: Moderately amplified flow was over the CONUS. Today began
with a ridge over the Plains...but it has departed to the E. A
large trof was over the Wrn USA and a shortwave trof was lifting
out of its base and was over UT. This trof will cont NE
tonight...crossing CO/WY into the Dakotas by daybreak Mon. The
mean Wrn trof will retrograde a bit...but low amplitude SW flow
will remain over the Plains.

Surface: A Pac cool front extended from the Wrn Dakotas thru the
Neb Panhandle then SW thru CO/UT/NV. A dryline intersected the
front over Ern CO. The cool front will cont E across the Nrn
Plains tonight with its more Srn portion moving slower to the E.
Present indications are that the front will enter the fcst area
around dawn Mon. It is expected to stall over the fcst area...with
alterations possible due to tstm outflows.

Now: lots of cloud cover remains over the fcst area and despite
this...temps have managed to climb well into the 70s and low 80s.
Dwpts are the highest they`ve been so far this warm season...in
the low-mid 60s.

Am not expecting much additional tstm activity to affect the fcst
area this afternoon. Isolated tstms will develop over Wrn Neb and
KS close to the dryline/cool front. Can`t rule out one or two of
these storms affecting areas W of hwy 183.

Please see MD #677. A watch appears likely just W of the fcst area
and probably against our Wrn border.

Tstm coverage will be more significant well N and W of the fcst
area this afternoon/eve...closer to the vort max. This activity
should grow upscale into one or more MCSs from SD into the Neb
Sandhills this eve. One of these MCSs could move in after
midnight. Strength/ severity is uncertain. Time of day argues
against severe and it should be weakening/cold pool-dominant...but
it can`t be ruled out with MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg.

Mon: Tstms may be over/exiting part of the fcst area during the
morning. What happens thereafter is highly uncertain. We could be
socked in with stratus in the wake of the storms.

WV imagery shows a subtle shortwave trof approaching Baja CA.
This trof will be ejecting across the Cntrl/Srn Plains during peak
heating. With the presence of the cool front/dryline and possibly
outflow boundaries...expect sct tstms to erupt mainly E and S of
the fcst area. But a few could occur S and E of the Tri-Cities
"if" morning clouds clear out and heating occurs.

Trying to determine the environment is tough given that cloud
coverage and temps are unknown in the wake of whatever occurs in
the morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Fcst uncertainty is above normal. Tstm potential hinges on small-
scale but important features that have low predictability. This
includes the tstms themselves as they can and will determine where
future tstm potential exists. Remnant cloud cover in the wake of
tstms also complicates temp fcsts as well as environmental
assessment.

Aloft: SW flow will remain over the Plains as the longwave trof
remains locked over the Wrn USA. Subtle/low amplitude embedded
shortwave trofs will provide dynamic forcing...enhancing tstm
potential from time to time. As of now...the most identifiable trof
is fcst to eject out of the Wrn trof on Fri.

Surface: The weak front that stalls from SW-NE across the Cntrl
Plains into the Great Lakes will become wavy and modulated by
multiple rounds of MCS activity. Little else will change.

Really can`t add much in the way of details because the fcst so
heavily hinges on mesoscale features that largely have yet to be
determined. All we can say at this point is there is a risk of
tstms every day. Some days will produce more than others.

Certainly the environment will be favorable for svr tstms. The
supply of Gulf moisture will be uninterrupted and deep layer shear
will be favorable for organized tstms and tstm clusters. All forms
of svr wx will be possible.

This week should be warmer than last week.

Flooding: this could be a very wet week in parts of the fcst area.
Some isolated spots could see svrl inches of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

There are multiple concerns regarding the aviation forecast.
Clouds have scattered...but are still basically broken...but they
remain VFR. Expect cloud coverage to increase and ceilings to drop
to MVFR or IFR during the overnight hours as convection moves in
from the west. Expect ceilings to rise during the morning Monday. Think
the best chances for showers and thunderstorms to impact the
terminals will be during the overnight hours as the front moves
through the region. The strong southerly winds will decrease and
become westerly as the front moves through.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Billings Wright



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