Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 310515
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1215 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE NORTH...BUT THE HIGH WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS WELL AS
COOL ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THE WINDS INCREASE. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. SKIES SHOULD STILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
WITH THE SUN AND THE SOUTH WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

EXPECT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS
MOISTURE BUILDS AND WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING.

WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALOFT SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR SOME
CONVECTION ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA.
THAT SAID...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE TOO FAVORABLE FOR THIS AS DESPITE
INCREASING INSTABILITY...A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...SO OPTED TO
TREND DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
THERE IS AN OBVIOUS LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...
INCLUDING A VERY WEAK AND POORLY FOCUSED LLJ DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

FOR MID WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TROUGHINESS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A RESULTANT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
IS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND HENCE EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIODS. DESPITE SIGNIFICANT
CAPE VALUES...ONLY VERY MODEST SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA...AND
THE LOCAL AREA IS NOT HIGHLIGHTED IN A RISK FROM SPC JUST YET...SO
DECIDED TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO AS WHILE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK...WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS FAIRLY LIMITED FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

LOOKING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
THRU THE PERIOD WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR
SUNDAY. CLOUDS AT VFR LEVELS WILL INCREASE WITH TIME AND CANNOT
RULE OUT CONVECTION TOWARD THE LATTER TAF HOURS HOWEVER BETTER
CHCS FOR THIS ARRIVE JUST BEYOND 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY


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