Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 090920
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
420 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WITH NO REAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TO SPEAK OF AT THE MOMENT.
THE MAIN FORCING LATER TODAY WILL RESULT FROM A 500 MB JET PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
WILL BE SITUATED OVER A SATURATED MID-LEVEL...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE
COLLOCATED WITH A REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT COULD PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS MID
MORNING...BUT MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS DIABATIC HEATING/DEW
POINTS INCREASE AND THE RIGHT HALF OF THE JET ENTRANCE REGION LINES
UP BETTER WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOP THIS MORNING BASED
SOLELY ON THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS ALSO NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...THIS CONTINUITY IS REASSURING
SEEING THE 06Z NAM TODAY IS STILL SHOWING THIS AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 310K LAYER. THIS WILL BE NEEDED FOR CONVECTION TO START
SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE ANY BOUNDARY IN THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. TO
SUM IT UP... AN UPPER LEVEL JET...CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE THE KEYS FOR TODAYS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SEVERAL DIFFERENT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCTS INDICATE ACTIVITY
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING. CONSEQUENTLY...I DID RAISE POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME PERIODS MORE THAN OTHERS.
AFTER SUNRISE...THERE ARE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALL MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND EVENING. INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH
DECENT BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS. GIVING THE
WEAK CAP THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG TO PERHAPS MODERATELY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP
TO AROUND 40 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...SO I DO EXPECT AN MCS TO DEVELOP IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON GOING...WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA AS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IN FACT...POPS ARE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WERE ESSENTIALLY KEEP THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOWER 80S AND UPPER
80S. CHALLENGE HERE IS GOING TO BE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WE
WILL RECEIVE...SO CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS IS RELATIVELY LOW.
NEVERTHELESS...I DO NOT EXPECT A HUGE SWING FROM WHAT IS FORECAST
NOW. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. LOWS TONIGHT ARE CURRENTLY SITTING BETWEEN THE LOWER 60S AND
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN PRESENTS NUMEROUS FORECAST
CHALLENGES WHEN IT COMES TO OUR PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT AND POOR IN THEIR HANDLING OF
WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

THURSDAY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. A FEW FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER WAVE...BUT BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA.

FRIDAY...SHOULD BE HOT...BUT MAYBE NOT AS HOT AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. FORECAST MODELS ARE BRINGING A SFC COOL FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA A LITTLE EARLIER AND MANY OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES
MAY END UP NORTH OF THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KANSAS STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY HOT JUST AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS NEARING 70F AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
SO EVEN IF THE HIGHS ONLY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER
NEBRASKA ZONES...IT WILL STILL FEEL PLENTY HOT AND HUMID. HAVE
REINTRODUCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE COOL FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THUS
ENHANCING THE THREAT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE COOL
FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL
WITH REGARD TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF
MODEL VARIATION AND A LACK OF CONSISTENCY FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOST LIKELY RETREAT FURTHER WEST AND BE CENTERED
SOMEWHERE AROUND NEVADA. THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD SINK SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH A FEW SHORT
WAVES BRINING SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN MCS WITHIN OUR CWA OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON ONE OR TWO
OF THESE DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS CERTAINLY THERE...BUT IT MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE DEALS WHERE SOME GET A LOT OF RAIN AND OTHERS NEAR
BY GET NOTHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR BY
TUESDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. THE CHALLENGE HERE TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE WE COULD GET SOME CONVECTION TO BEGIN EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE THIS EVENING WHEN WE
COULD EXPERIENCE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS. REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO
AT LEAST MVFR CRITERIA CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS AROUND 7 PM
LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AND PUSH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT TAFS REFLECT THE OVERALL TREND
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR SOME POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS TO
TIMING IN THE NEXT TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...GUERRERO



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