Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 051007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
407 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Satellite and observations show mid and high clouds moving into the
area early this morning. There is a surface low in the Dakotas and a
cold front draped to the southwest. The pre-frontal trough is in
western Nebraska.

Through the morning hours, the surface trough will move into the
area with winds turning towards the west. Clouds will continue to
thicken and lower a little. During the afternoon, the cold front is
expected to move through the forecast area. Winds will turn toward
the northwest to north after the front moves through, and the winds
should increase. Even with the front moving through, the
temperatures will be mild.

Winds will be breezy through the night as well. Colder air will move
into the area late this afternoon and tonight. Lows tonight will
drop into the teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 407 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

While the upper level flow pattern will remain fairly progressive
through the period...bitterly cold temperatures will likely be the
focus over the upcoming week as temperatures are expected to plummet
well below normal beginning Tuesday...and likely not rebounding to
seasonal norms until next weekend or early next week. While multiple
quick passing disturbances will bring varying amounts of cloud cover
from time to time...the main chance for precipitation appears to be
with an upper level disturbance tracking across the local area
Tuesday night through Wednesday. While a few days ago this looked
like a potentially significant winter event for the local area...the
past few days model runs have come into pretty good agreement
rapidly tracking this storm across the local area with fairly modest
snowfall amounts...primarily focused across the southern half of the
local forecast area. While there is still time for the models to
change...given their consistency over the past few runs...feel
fairly confident that we will likely see a mainly light snowfall
event focused across north central Kansas mid week.

Given the better consistency of model significant changes
were made to snowfall forecast...which generally targets areas south
of interstate 80 with 1 to 3 inches of snow. While it will not be
out of the question to have slightly higher totals given the
expected high snowfall ratios and cold air in place...these higher
totals should be focused where the better lift/forcing will be
located...across north central Kansas. As a result...while snow will
be impactful in places...temperatures will likely be the most
noticeable change for most folks...with the coldest airmass of the
season expected to bring sub zero temperatures to the coldest spots
both Thursday and Friday mornings. Once in place...this cold airmass
will be slow to moderate...with temperatures likely not climbing
back above normal through the extended periods...with 20s and 30s
expected for afternoon high temperatures over the upcoming weekend
and into early next week. Other than these cold temperatures...
minimal chances for precip appear to be in the forecast...despite
the progressive pattern. This is largely due to the cold dry airmass
in place and lack of significant forcing from any embedded systems
in the progressive west northwesterly flow...with the next
best...yet questionable chance...for precipitation coming early next


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Mid to high clouds will move into the terminal areas through the
period. There will be some low level wind shear through the early
morning hours. A cold front will move through the area during the
afternoon and winds will gradually change from south to northwest.




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