Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
FXUS63 KGID 200610

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
110 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Focus is on the potential for light rain or sprinkles tonight and
possibly into early Thursday. An upper level disturbance translating
from the northern and central Rockies onto the Central Plains has
generated rain shower activity across western Nebraska during the morning.
Movement of the rain showers is to the northeast while the entire
area of precipitation will gradually work east as the wave moves
through this evening and tonight. The precipitation will be very
light, with just trace amounts to around a hundredth or two
expected. The shortwave trough axis shifts east early Thursday
however there is still lingering lift in the left front quadrant
of the upper jet nosing across the plains and have kept in the
mention for sprinkles for the morning.

Cooler air filters south behind the cold frontal boundary tonight
and is reinforced by the surface high pressure system settling in.
Cloud cover and the cooler airmass Thursday will keep temps a few
degrees below normal with readings averaging in the upper 50s to
low 60s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Heights rise behind the departing wave Thursday night with upper
ridging settling across the plains over the weekend and into the
first part of next week. This will bring a period of dry and mild
weather with above normal temperatures.

Flow aloft transitions southwest on Tuesday ahead of a upper trough
in the Pacific and a lead shortwave trough moving out of the
Rockies. Chances for precipitation return late Tuesday into Tuesday
night as this lead system emerges onto the plains. Models suggest
good moisture in place with this next wave and have included some
potential for thunder. Models diverge more so around the middle of
next week with the handling of the upper low in the Pacific which
affects the pattern across the plains and details will be resolved
as things get closer.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

General overview:
Confidence in predominant VFR has waned somewhat versus previous
issuances, mainly due to recent trends suggesting that MVFR
ceiling could settle in through much of the period, along with a
lesser possibility of at least brief, sub-VFR visibility
reductions in light fog. Thus, this latest cycle has taken a more
pessimistic approach while not trying to go "overboard". For more
element-specific detail see below...

While we are coming out of the gate with only a mid-level VFR
cloud deck, several models/guidance are now suggesting that
especially the 10z-14z time frame could see the onset of at least
MVFR ceiling and possibly sub-VFR ceiling as well. Confidence in
the MVFR ceiling is somewhat higher, so have introduced a TEMPO
group 10z-14z but kept visibility VFR for now. Confidence on how
long the MVFR ceiling could persist into the day or possibly even
the evening hours is low, but opted to keep a high-end MVFR
going through 23z as a best guess.

Although it is possible that a few brief rain showers could affect
the terminals especially during the 12z-16z time frame, confidence
in occurrence is low enough that have refrained from even a
"vicinity" (VCSH) mention for now.

Surface winds:
Winds should not be much of an issue through the period, with
speeds averaging under 10kt essentially the entire time mainly
from the north but then becoming very light/variable by this




AVIATION...Pfannkuch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.