Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 300900
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
ROGUE SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY INVOLVES A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
A MODEST WARM-UP VERSUS YESTERDAY TO HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 UNDER PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES...THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE (AND A SOMEWHAT FRUSTRATING ONE
FROM A MESSAGE STANDPOINT) IN THAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY
"ZERO"...THEY ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION VERSUS 20 PERCENT OR HIGHER. AS MOST FOLKS LIKELY ALREADY
REALIZE...OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST PRODUCTS DO NOT FORMALLY MENTION
RAIN CHANCES UNLESS THEY ARE AT LEAST 15-20 PERCENT. SO THIS IS A
CASE WHERE THE FORECAST WILL GO OUT SOUNDING "DRY"...BUT IN
REALITY IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SOME MODELS THAT AT
LEAST VERY SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD REALIZE ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT SOME POINT. OBVIOUSLY NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN CASE LIMITED AREAS OF
MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) END UP BEING
WARRANTED...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE LIKELIHOOD AND AREAL
PLACEMENT OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS JUST LACKING TOO MUCH AT
THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" THE INHERITED DRY
FORECAST...DESPITE THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK PAINTING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA IN "GENERAL THUNDER" POTENTIAL.

BREAKING DOWN THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM...IT`S BEEN A VERY
QUIET...LARGELY CLEAR AND AGAIN SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...AS SOME PLACES ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA COULD EASILY REALIZE LOWS A TOUCH COOLER THAN EVEN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN END
UP SOMEWHERE IN THE 55-60 RANGE WITH PARTS OF OUR KS ZONES BEING
MOST FAVORED TO POSSIBLY REMAIN JUST ABOVE 60 THANKS TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. AS THIS IS IS BEING TYPED...A SMALL AREA OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF POSSIBLY EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL KS I-70
CORRIDOR...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT
NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL. AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...THIS EARLY-
MORNING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY COME CLOSE TO FLIRTING WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL "ASSUME" FOR NOW
THAT IT WILL IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH WITHIN THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AXIS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL BROAD ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD...AS
THE LOCAL AREA IS IN BETWEEN THE LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WEST TX AREA...AND A NORTHERN STREAM LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND TOWARD MN. THE
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN KS IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND ALSO RESIDES WITHIN AN AREA OF NOTICEABLY HIGHER LOW-
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN THAT FOUND OVER THE
LOCAL CWA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER/NEAR THE CWA...PROMOTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IF ANYTHING MANY PLACES ARE REPORTING
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS:

EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 7AM): CERTAINLY THE MAIN THING WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF EXPANDING WEAK
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WHICH IS SEEMINGLY TIED MAINLY TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850MB...AND MAKING SURE THAT IT DOES IN
FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
OFTEN-RELIABLE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF SEEMS TO ALREADY HAVE A FAIRLY
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...AND LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY DOES IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS
THE LAST TRULY "COOL" MORNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): AS OUTLINED IN FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE...SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...BUT JUST CANNOT
TOTALLY "GUARANTEE" IT. STARTING WITH THE LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER
LEVEL SCENE...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE
TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDING BACK TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. THERE ARE ALMOST NO EVIDENT WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES THAT APPEAR TO TAKE AIM ON THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEAK FORCING CONTINUING TO TARGET
AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE FROM CO/NM EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN KS/OK. THAT BEING SAID...WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 850MB BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY...AT LEAST
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH
FORCING LACKING...THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AS IT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES...WHILE LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD FOCUS JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS REGION. WHILE A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS
LATER-DAY CONVECTION POSSIBLY CLIPPING/INFILTRATING OUR FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AGAIN HAVE DEEMED THE ODDS TO BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT LEVELS AT THIS TIME. IN OTHER NON-
PRECIP DEPARTMENTS...OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN KS
ZONES MAINLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT AN OVERALL MOSTLY-SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE CWA. THE RESULTANT HEATING...IN TANDEM WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT BUT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES UP TO AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD
GIVE AFTERNOON TEMPS A DECENT BUMP ABOVE THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA INTO THE 87-90 RANGE. ALTHOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
IT APPEARS THE NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINT INCREASES
AND THE GFS TOO DRY...SO HAVE AIMED MOST AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S RANGE.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIT ON A FEW
TIMES NOW...THE "DRY" FORECAST CONTINUES BUT WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
CAVEATS. IN THE BIG PICTURE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY AS THE CWA
REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTAINING LITTLE TO NO EVIDENT
FORCING MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PRECEDING
PARAGRAPH...THE EVENING HOURS COULD POTENTIALLY FEATURE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY TRYING TO AFFECT THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST CWA...BUT WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE OUR CWA OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND ALSO LIKELY WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
COOLING...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW. EVEN
LATER IN THE NIGHT...AT LEAST TWO MODELS (00Z GFS AND 4KM WRF-NMM)
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS
TO FLARE UP NEAR OR POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST AND/OR CENTRAL
CWA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE
850-700MB LEVEL. YET AGAIN THOUGH...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
LACKING ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND
NSSL WRF...THAT POPS WERE HELD BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVEL. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH BREEZES SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...THE
EFFECTS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
REGIME HEADING INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN MADE
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS HERE...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE JET STREAM FOCUSED
WELL TO THE NORTH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PERIODIC SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS IN THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS.

BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MODELS
INDICATING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB BY AFTERNOON...
EXPECT AMPLE INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY
WEAK...AND HENCE MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SUB-SEVERE...ALBEIT THE LOCAL AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...THIS
COULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE EVENING FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THEREAFTER...MULTIPLE
ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTION ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS OR FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

OVERALL...DESPITE THE MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NEARLY EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM/FEATURE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SPARK FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT
AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST FOR THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

BARRING SOME RATHER UNEXPECTED CHANGES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
IN A CONTINUED VERY QUIET 24 HOURS AVIATION-WISE. CERTAINLY
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING BOTH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE...AND IN FACT ANTICIPATE FAIRLY LIMITED CLOUD COVER
EVEN IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT/BELOW
10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DIRECTION MAINLY AVERAGING FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. AS FOR THE PROSPECTS OF A ROGUE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MOVING IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...CANNOT SAY THIS
CHANCE IS TRULY "ZERO"...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NO MORE THAN 10
PERCENT AND THUS IS NOT WORTHY OF TAF INCLUSION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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