Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 152340
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
540 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CENTER AROUND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM AND HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW AND WIND WILL
TAPER OFF.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...THIS IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WITH THE UPPER LOW AT MID AFTERNOON LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW BAND HAS BEEN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
UPPER LOW ITSELF AND HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTING EAST AND NORTH WITH
TIME. THE SNOWBAND LOCATED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN
CENTERED OVER THE TRI CITIES AND UP INTO ORD AND GREELEY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST SNOW ENDED THIS MORNING
WHILE THE BAND WAS OVER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND EVERYTHING
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT WITH AN OVERALL DECREASING
TREND IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND SNOW INTENSITY. THE UPPER STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY FROM OUR AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED
DECREASING TREND IN SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
CONTEMPLATED CANCELING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE DECREASING SNOW TRENDS...BUT DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL IT EXPIRES AT 6 PM DUE TO
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH THAT ARE STILL RESULTING
IN POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. AREAS WITH SNOW COVER HAVE SEEN
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 1/2 MILE IN BLOWING
SNOW. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE REDUCED TO FLURRIES BY
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
TIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING KEEPING THE WINDS UP ALL EVENING. THE
WIND WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE BY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH GUSTS MORE IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE BY DAWN ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND DECREASING WINDS.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD WITH A NORTHWEST SFC WIND BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN OVER AREAS
WITH FRESH SNOW COVER. WENT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER AREAS
THAT MEASURED 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL TODAY. 925MB CLOUD COVER
MAY ALSO BE HARD TO BREAK UP ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY. CLOUDS OR LACK OF CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WILL GENERALLY CALL FOR HIGHS AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS KANSAS AND OUR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ZONES
WHERE THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY SNOW COVER AND WHERE THE CLOUDS STAND
THE BEST CHANCE OF BREAKING UP. OTHERWISE...HIGHS SHOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS NEW SNOW COVER AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE MID-LATE WORK WEEK TIME FRAME.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER NRN MN AND ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST. SEE A GRADUAL EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THAT NEXT
DISTURBANCE DIGS SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SW. MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION...AND WHILE THERE IS SOME HINT AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP TO WORK IN FROM THE S/SW LATE IN THE
DAY...MOST KEEP THE CWA DRY...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND. AT
THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM THE PARENT HIGH
OVER CENTRAL CANADA. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SERLY FLOW
THROUGH WED AS THAT AXIS SLIDES EAST. NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE TEMP FORECAST...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

LOOKING AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS NOT THE HIGHEST...WITH MODELS
SHOWING A MESSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THE GENERAL
FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS ZONAL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH. THE FIRST OF THESE
DISTURBANCES LOOKS TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT
WITH HOW MUCH QPF THERE IS AS A RESULT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. SOME
SHOW THERE BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...OTHERS NON ACCUMULATING
PRECIP...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. DEBATED THROWING A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST OF FZDZ...BUT WITH IT STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND WITH THIS FIRST AND GAIN
MORE CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER IT WOULD ACTUALLY OCCUR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE THUR NIGHT/FRI COULD
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE CWA...BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS WITH ITS TRACK...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT POTENTIALLY
MISSING US TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS FOR THURS/FRI GENERALLY IN THE
30S...THOUGH SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.

AS WE GET INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND MONDAY...THE FORECAST IS
DRY...BUT HARD TO SAY THERE IS A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT WHEN
THERE ARE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS. AT
THIS POINT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT SAT/SUN STAYING
DRY THAN THEY ARE ABOUT MON. NO POINT IN STRAYING FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GRIDS UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE GAINED. SHOULD SEE A
REBOUND IN TEMPS BACK INTO THE 40S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 12Z.

PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW PERSISTS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PRECIPTIATION IS
COMING TO AN END AND VISIBILITY IS IMPROVING. STRATUS...WITH A
CEILING BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000FT AGL...WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO START
THE TAF PERIOD BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN MVFR
CEILING UNTIL 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST 12Z ONWARD.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 25KTS WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 33KTS TO
START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A WEAKENING WIND FIELD SHOULD BE NOTED
AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ039>041-046-047-060-061-072>074-082>084.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT



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