Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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840
FXUS63 KGID 170944
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
444 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER AND SFC LOW HAVE TRACKED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
JUST PRIOR TO DAWN WERE LOCATED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. A DEFORMATION BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TRACKING NORTH ACROSS PRIMARILY OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A CLEARLY DEFINED CLASSIC COMMA HEAD FEATURE AS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST OF THE DEFORMATION BAND RAIN WILL QUICKLY
EXIT TO OUR NORTH BY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH WE
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER THIS
MORNING...WANTED TO GO DRY WITH THE MORNING FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS
AS DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE SITUATION FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA. A SECONDARY WEAK VORT MAX
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...THUS
TRACKING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND THUS SBCAPE VALUES TO AROUND OR
A BIT OVER 1000 J/KG. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE RATHER COOL AND 0-6
KM WIND SHEAR ALTHOUGH MARGINAL IS NOT NEGLIGIBLE AT 25 TO 30 KTS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT DIURNAL HEATING WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY AFTER 3 PM THAT COULD
LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE BETTER CHANCE OF CATCHING ONE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA ZONES WITH LESSER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TONIGHT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON COULD LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT AS THE SUN SETS
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW DRY DAYS/NIGHTS HIDING IN THERE...OVERALL
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THESE 6
DAYS...WITH AT LEAST 2 DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROVIDING
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL...ONE CENTERED AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
OTHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
IS ESSENTIALLY NIL WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM (IN FACT ANY THUNDER AT
ALL MAY BE HARD TO COME BY)...THE LATE-WEEK/WEEKEND ONE APPEARS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIALLY YIELDING OUR NEXT SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES. OF COURSE...GIVEN HOW THESE LAST FEW WEEKEND SYSTEMS
HAVE PROVEN EXTREMELY CHALLENGING IN THE SEVERE WEATHER
FORECASTING DEPARTMENT...IT IS ABSOLUTELY-POSITIVELY TOO EARLY TO
GET CARRIED AWAY WITH THINGS ALMOST A WEEK OUT.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...IF ANYTHING...THE UPCOMING WEEK JUST KEEPS
TRENDING A TOUCH COOLER THANKS TO A FAIRLY STOUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REGIME NEAR AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL REGION AND
KEEPING PREVAILING EAST-NORTHEAST BREEZES IN PLACE MOST OF THE
TIME. THIS LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S
MONDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY/...WITH MOST OF THE CWA ONLY IN THE 50S
TUES-WED...AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR 70S HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY.
IN OTHER WORDS...GIVEN THAT NORMAL DAILY HIGHS ARE NOW INTO THE
LOW-MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEEK AS A WHOLE WILL EASILY
AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL. AS FOR LOWS...NOT
SURPRISINGLY IT`S A SIMILAR STORY WITH NEARLY EACH NIGHT THIS WEEK
EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO THE 40S...WITH ANY WIDESPREAD 50S
HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. THE OVERALL-
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK STILL APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE
VALUES AS LOW AS 36-39 ARE FORECAST MAINLY NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY
92 IN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH VALUES THIS LOW COULD MARGINALLY SUPPORT
FROST FORMATION IN PLACES SUCH AS ORD...THE CURRENT EXPECTATION OF
LIGHT-BUT-STEADY BREEZES OF AT LEAST 5-8 MPH SHOULD LARGELY
PRECLUDE THIS RISK. OF COURSE...THIS STILL BEARS WATCHING AS THERE
IS STILL TIME FOR READINGS TO TREND DOWNWARD A BIT. AT ANY
RATE...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF FROST OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS THE
BETTER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO RESIDE NORTH OF THE CWA NEARER THE SD
BORDER.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A MORE DETAILED LOOK AT
THINGS IN PRIMARILY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY HIGH IN A DRY 24
HOURS AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEEKEND
SYSTEM AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER WAVE GRADUALLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG
1030+ MILLIBAR RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH THE RESULTING GRADIENT YIELDING A
SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTH...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. SKY-COVER
WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY...BUT THERE ARE HINTS PER THE NAM THAT A FEW THICKER
PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS COULD WANDER THROUGH AS WELL. MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS...AIMED LOW 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. ON
MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST AS THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND SOME MODELS EVEN
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD BE FLIRTING WITH THE EXTREME WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THINGS DRY.
THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT-BUT-STEADY NORTHEAST BREEZES
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL COOLING POTENTIAL...BUT
AS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS SHOULD BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOW/MID 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: WHILE RAIN IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY
GOOD BET TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION DURING THE
DAY IS HOW FAR EAST INTO THE CWA WILL RAIN PUSH AS IT WILL BE
FIGHTING LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
FOR THE MORNING HOURS...KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING IN FAR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON EXPANDED AT LEAST 20 POPS AS
FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 281...WHILE INCREASING TO 40-60 POPS IN
WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. BY TUESDAY EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE BUT FAIRLY DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH KICKS OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PROBABLY COULD HAVE WENT
WITH EVEN HIGHER POPS...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE HEALTHY 60-80
PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO
SEE GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50" AND LOCALLY HIGHER.
TEMP-WISE...NUDGED DOWN HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE LEADING EDGES OF
RAIN...KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE DECENT RAIN-MAKING SYSTEM FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT IS ON TRACK TO PUSH EAST ACROSS AND OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN MOVING IN
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SETTLES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NET RESULT IS A CONTINUATION OF MODEST 30-50
POPS FOR SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY...BUT HAVE
REMOVED ANY RAIN MENTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS STILL ON
TRACK TO BE THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO CRACK 55 IN MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: FOR BEING 4 DAYS OUT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH IN A DRY DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT PREVAILS...AND IN FACT MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD STAY DRY AS
WELL. HOWEVER...WILL RUN WITH SOME "IFFY" 20-50 POPS FOR
SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS MAINLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGES
OF FORCING WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: FOR BEING 5 DAYS OUT...PRETTY DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS IN EJECTING THE NEXT SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WITH THE MAIN VORT MAX GENERALLY
REACHING THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...INSTABILITY/CAPE
VALUES WILL BE ON THE RISE...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD EVEN SUGGEST SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THIS
ENTIRE 24 HOURS FEATURES 30-50 POPS...BUT HIGHEST AT NIGHT. LIKELY
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST PER THE
DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED TO POPULATE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
HAS LOWERED HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES...NOW KEEPING ALL AREAS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY DAYTIME: NOT SURPRSINGLY BY THIS FAR OUT...THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS RUNS DIVERGE A BIT WITH HOW QUICKLY/SLOWLY THE PARENT
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF
THE SLOWER OF THE TWO. EITHER WAY THOUGH...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
ARGUES FOR YET ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STORMY WEEKEND...AND AS
MENTIONED EARLIER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL (REPEAT
POTENTIAL) SEVERE WEATHER RISK. HIGH TEMPS ARE VERY PRELIMINARILY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE LOW-MID 70S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

A FEW OF THE FORECAST MODELS BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO OUR TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THUS FAR THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EAST
OF KGRI AND KEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR VFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW IN THE CEILINGS
THIS MORNING AND CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IFR CEILINGS AT SOME
POINT THROUGH MID MORNING...EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT IN OUR TAFS AT
THIS TIME. THE WIND WILL VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. A FRONT WILL COME THROUGH BY EARLY EVENING
THAT WILL TURN THE WIND TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY



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