Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 131723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1123 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

The short term periods are quiet weatherwise ahead of the
approaching winter storm system moving in over the weekend. The
pattern aloft will feature southwest flow across our region ahead of
a potent upper low pressure system off the coast of southern
California. A shortwave trough translating across northern Nebraska
into South Dakota has generated light snow across far northern
Nebraska, with overnight radar returns just picking up on mid level
cloud cover across our northern counties.

Surface high pressure centered in eastern SD will migrate into MN
thru tonight allowing for weak return flow. We don`t see much of an
airmass change thru the afternoon and high temperatures will be
similar to Thursday with readings averaging in the 20s. Have kept
the forecast dry through tonight as low clouds and drizzle potential
look to remain just south of our cwa.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

The main story through the period remains the winter storm that will
be affecting the area from Saturday afternoon through Monday

Models continue to be fairly consistent with the upper low as it
moves into the plains and through the forecast area. There are a few
differences that have been noted in the latest runs. The low seems
to be a bit slower and temperatures are a bit warmer than before.
These are fairly small changes and only make a few changes in the
main story.

On Saturday the area is under the influence of a surface high
pressure to start the day and winds will be fairly light. By
afternoon some of the models start to bring in some precipitation
into mostly the Kansas portion of the forecast area. There is a warm
layer aloft and the precipitation should be freezing rain or even
rain as the temperatures warm to around freezing. During the evening
the precipitation spreads further to the north covering most of
south central Nebraska by morning. The northern part of the area
will have that warm nose again and there is freezing rain while
further to the south the warm nose is not quite as warm and there
could be some sleet.

Sunday seems to be the day that may have the most changes. The NAM
and GFS both have a lull in the precipitation while the ECMWF still
has precipitation across the area. Have continued the precipitation
across the area, but will have to watch to see if there is the lull
that the models have. Precipitation type continues to be a mix of
freezing rain and sleet for much of the area, but freezing rain
further to the north.

Sunday night will be the main period with precipitation. This is the
best PoPs and the most QPF. Here too, there is not much cold air
moving into the area and freezing rain and sleet will be the main
precipitation type. On Monday the upper low moves into the area.
There is finally some colder air in the northwest and there could be
some snow, but warmer air moves into the southeast and there will be
rain that spreads into the area. As the upper low moves to the
northeast Monday night, the precipitation should gradually move out
of the area during the evening. Until it does, there is still some
rain in the south and some freezing rain in the east, but the west
should be turning more toward snow as the colder air moves in behind
the low. The main changes during this forecast have been changing to
more freezing rain and sleet than snow.

Once the upper low moves out of the area there will be warm
advection across the area and temperatures should start to warm.
Tuesday will have clouds moving out and the warm advection is later
in the day. There will also be the ice and snow on the ground to
keep things a little cooler. By Wednesday and Thursday the warm
advection is strong and winds should be west. Temperatures should
warm into the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

VFR conditions currently forecast for this TAF period. There has
been an occasional ob with a barely MVFR ceiling this morning,
but confidence in that occurring at either terminal is low enough
to keep out at this point. Winds will remain light through the
period, generally east-southeasterly this afternoon, becoming more
light/variable this evening/tonight, before turning more westerly
toward the end of the period.


NE...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077.

     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     for NEZ082>087.

KS...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     for KSZ005>007-017>019.



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