Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 141038
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
438 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

This forecast has big bust potential as models are way more
optimistic than I am that the surface trough to the west will
arrive in time to bust out some sunshine and warm temperatures
into the 60s. Remembering that it is November and that the sun
angle is substantially lower, and the fact that the trough to the
west does not have much of a push to it, I cannot fathom how we
are going to make it into the mid 50s as the GFS MOS guidance
predicts. Even the cooler NAM MOS guidance in the mid to upper 50s
may be too warm. I am taking a bit of a gamble with pattern
recognition here and am going to keep it cloudy or at least mostly
cloudy all day, and even added some drizzle this morning to the
fog for most of the CWA, especially for central and southeastern
areas. Generally went with highs in the lower to mid 50s, except
in our far far west where I have a more optimistic lower 60s where
they stand the best chance of sun breaking out.

I really think our southeast could have more drizzle/fog possible
this evening before a cold front sweeps through. This will be a
similar environment to what we`ve had for the past couple of days,
so I do not see why not, at least until the cold front moves
through.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 410 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Still looks like mid-week quasi-zonal flow will give way to a
significant trough by Friday, and by Friday night, there will be a
shot at some precipitation, and maybe even ending in a little
light snow before ending with a cold front moving through. Went
with CONSALL wind for the cold front passage, which beefed up wind
speeds. Temperatures should be seasonable or even on the mild
side of seasonable with highs most days in the 50s and lows most
nights in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1154 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

With current pattern, see no reason visibility will not tank
overnight. LIFR ceilings are expected as well as a dismal
overnight unfolds.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein



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