Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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416
FXUS63 KGID 260513
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1213 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY.

TONIGHT THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THRU THE EVENING AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...THEN CHCS FOR PCPN INCREASE TOWARDS 12Z
TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WITH MOISTURE
RETURNING NORTH. CLOUDS LOWER/THICKEN BY MORNING EXPECT TO SEE PCPN
DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AND VSBYS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF PCPN AND HAVE
KEPT MENTION IN FORECAST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE AND
AVERAGES 2000 TO 4000 J/KG TUESDAY AND COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER UNFOLDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW ORIENTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ALONG THE KS/NEB SATELLITE AND THE DRY LINE
IN WESTERN KANSAS. BY LATE AFTERNOON TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS 4 PM...BUT WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TOWARD 00Z AND THRU THE EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR DANGEROUS TSTMS IN THE HIGH INSTABILITY/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ON
PENDING SEVERE WEATHER THAT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS
TOMORROW.

EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THIS AFTERNOON TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
TOMORROW...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY BUILDING ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...ON THE ORDER OF 4-5 KJ/KG...AND 0-6KT SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 50 KTS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ONE QUESTION WILL BE THE INITIATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...AS WITH
LOW LEVEL STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WHILE THIS COULD PUT A DELAY ON
CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO HELP INITIATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. INITIALLY...THE FOCUS OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT...SHIFTING NORTH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
NEBRASKA.

WHILE THE INITIAL THREAT WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT AND WIND GUST THREAT LATER IN THE
EVENING. WITH SUCH LARGE CAPE VALUES AND SHEAR...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE VERY LARGE HAIL...AND WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
HAIL SIZE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR BASEBALL SIZED HAIL IN THE
HWO.

AS THE PARENT LOW THEN LIFT FURTHER NORTH DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT INSTABILITY TO BEGIN TO WANE AND FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY...COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
LOCAL ARE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO THIS COOLER
WEATHER...SEVERAL ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO ROTATE OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
LOCAL AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST THERE WILL BE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THROUGH MID DAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOWER
CLOUDS AND THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS SOME FOG.
CURRENTLY THERE ARE NOT LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EXTREMELY LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY BUT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE TOWARD DAY BREAK. HAVE
MVFR IN THERE NOW...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME IFR AROUND SUNRISE.
THE NEXT CONCERN IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE
SOME DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB



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