Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 161428

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
928 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 926 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

The visibility remains at a quarter mile or less for most
locations across the area. Have extended the advisory until noon.
In the next couple hours the visibility should improve slowly for
most locations. The far southeast may see an improvement a little
earlier than the rest of the area.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

The main forecast concern is Dense Fog this morning.

Dense Fog has developed along the weak surface axis with light
winds and radiational cooling. Fog has spread across southeastern
Nebraska and is spreading over north central Kansas. The high-
resolution HRRR/RAP have been showing this for hours and have
relatively good trends with current conditions. These solutions
show the dense fog spreading westward across north central Kansas
and northward across south central Nebraska through the morning
hours. Issued a Dense Fog advisory for this morning through 10am
for much of the area along and south of I-80 and all of north
central Kansas. The guidance does hint that the dense fog may
persist past 15z in south central Nebraska, but will allow the
next shift to extend if trends indicate that.

Low stratus is expected to stay around much of the day across
much of central and south central Nebraska which will keep
temperatures slightly less than previously forecasted. Highs in
the mid to upper 70s look possible in central and south central
Nebraska with low 80s over north central Kansas.

Again late tonight some patchy fog will be possible. Lows will be
in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Aloft: No change in fcst reasoning from this shift 24 hrs ago.
Benign WSW flow will prevail until a shortwave trof moves thru Wed
eve. NW will follow in its wake Thu-Fri as a ridge and subtropical
high develops over the Wrn USA. A shortwave ridge is then fcst to
move thru Sat.

Surface: a cool front will bisect the fcst area at dawn Mon with a
low near the Neb/KS border riding NE along it. As the low heads
toward the upr Midwest...the front will exit the fcst area by
sunset. A stronger Canadian cold front will drop to the US border by
this time as well. Weak high pres will emerge over Neb Tue. The
Canadian front will plunge S and cross the fcst area Tue night. A
much stronger high will form over the Wrn USA behind this front. It
will emerge onto the Plains Thu with return flow developing Fri-Sat
as it departs to the E. A Clipper-type system could form and drop
into ND Sat. The approach of this low should result in a warm front
passing E thru the fcst area Fri.

No high-impact/hazardous wx is currently foreseen.

There is a little concern for fog E of hwy 281 at daybreak Mon. Temp-
dwpt depressions will be small and trajectories will be from the E-
NE where low stratus is expected. Only the NAM/NMM/ARW show the
potential and they typically have a high false alarm rate...but
pattern recognition is supportive.

Sensible wx highlights: temps cont way above normal Mon...but that
will be it for the week. Parts of N-cntrl KS will be close to 90F.
Tue will turn cooler with the rest of the week averaging closer to
normal. Wed will be the coolest day of the week with temps below

There is no potential for appreciable rainfall. A few brief hit-or-
miss shwrs still look probable with the upr trof Wed. Still not
enough instability fcst to insert thunder.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

The main aviation forecast concern continues to be the LIFR
visibilities and ceilings. Dense Fog has moved in as previously
thought. As of 11Z both KEAR/KGRI reported broken LIFR ceilings
and from metar`s upstream, 1/4 mile or less visibility is on its
heels. The higher resolution guidance keeps the LIFR visibilities
around through mid-morning, but keeps LIFR to IFR ceilings around
for a good chunk of the day at both KEAR/KGRI. Lifting to MVFR and
VFR sometime in the mid-late afternoon.

Winds will be light easterly this morning, become more southerly
this afternoon before turning light and variable again overnight.
Patchy fog is again possible later tonight, but have left that out
of the forecast at this time, focusing on the next 12 hours.


NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for NEZ039>041-046>049-

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for KSZ005>007-017>019.



SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Billings Wright is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.