Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 210520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1220 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Satellite and observations show some cumulus across much of the
forecast area. There are a few more in the some parts than others.
Surface analysis has a high pressure system to the northwest of the
forecast area.

The surface high continues to build across the area tonight. With
the high pressure the current clouds will dissipate as the sun goes
down tonight. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to
fall off fairly rapidly this evening. Current forecast lows are
within a few degrees of record lows for the 21st. The record low in
Grand Island was 48 degrees in 1920 and 1939, and in Hastings 47
degrees set in 1956.

The surface high moves to the east on Sunday. Winds will turn to the
south and increase some during the afternoon. Do not expect there to
be many clouds and winds should not be too strong. The south winds
will help warm things back up to near normal.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

By Sunday night, the pressure gradient starts to tighten, so winds
will not drop off much during the night. The south winds will help
keep the temperatures from falling off too much. By Monday morning,
the pressure gradient will continue to be strong. Winds at 850mb
increase to 30 to 40 kts. The winds will increase and be gusty. The
south winds start to increase moisture across the area and as an
upper level wave moves into the area there could be a few
thunderstorms late Monday night. As the upper wave moves through the
area there could be a few thunderstorms across the area. The best
chance would be in the eastern part of the forecast area. The upper
level wave will continue to affect the area and there are
thunderstorms in the forecast through Wednesday night. There were
showers, but with the latest run of the models there is still some
CAPE around the area so have included thunderstorms. In addition to
the upper level wave there is a cold front that moves through the
forecast area Tuesday night. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be the
best chances for thunderstorms. Ahead of the front temperatures will
be near normal. Then temperatures cool off again for Wednesday.

Thursday will be dry and cooler. Then the next upper level wave
moves into the area for Thursday night through Saturday. Models have
a few differences in timing and strength of the wave, so have kept
some lower PoPs. Temperatures remain mainly cooler.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period with light winds
and only a few passing high clouds expected overnight. For
Sunday...expect an increasing pressure gradient to result in
occasionally gusty southerly winds...which are expected to
decouple and diminish some around sunset. Despite the surface
winds decreasing late in the day tomorrow...winds aloft will
increase overnight...resulting in some LLWS that will be needed to
be added to the 12Z TAF issuance.


.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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