Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 140445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1045 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures returned to
the local area today as the low level flow turned southerly and
warmer air began to advect across the local area. This has led to
the first afternoon in over a week with high temperatures topping
above freezing for much of our local forecast area. With
sufficient snow cover remaining in place along with clear skies
anticipated overnight...opted towards the cool side of guidance
for Wednesday morning with most locations expected to bottom out
in the lower 20s. In addition...models are hinting at a chance for
some fog towards morning...especially towards the NE/KS state
lines where there has been a little melting of snow today and
winds overnight should be lightest...but think that the
probability of this is low and discounted any mention in the
official forecast.

For Wednesday...temperatures are expected to surge another 10
degrees or so above this afternoons southerly flow at
the surface continues with weak ridging across the upper layers of
the atmosphere...making for a more mild afternoon. In fact...with
mostly sunny skies and only light southwesterly should
be a fairly pleasant day across the region tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Fluctuating temperatures will be the main story through the
extended periods as temperatures will briefly cool down behind a
cold front on Friday...with a brief warm-up expected over the
upcoming weekend...followed by yet another arctic outbreak of air
across the region next week.

Looking at the broader scale pattern...expect an upper level low
across the desert southwest to lift into the plains late in the
week in concert with a cold front dropping down from the north.
While there should be an increase in cloud cover and possibly a
few flurries with the passage of this front...overall this system
is moisture starved...and measurable precipitation is not
anticipated across the local area. The main story will be the
brief shot of cold air and breezy conditions expected across the
local area overnight Thursday and into Friday.

The upper level pattern then turns more zonal across the center
of the country over the upcoming weekend as another upper level
system descends into the Pacific northwest...eventually tracking
across the Rockies and into the plains early next week. While
there are some small precipitation chances across the local area
beginning late Sunday night and continuing through Tuesday with
this system...overall...this system does not appear to be a major
snow producer locally and will mainly be responsible for ushering
in another arctic airmass early next week with a return to highs
in the 20s and low in the single digits expected across much of
the local area for several days.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

The weather is expected to remain quiet through the taf period
with VFR conditions forecast.





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