Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 162318
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
618 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 349 PM
CDT Tue Aug 16 2016

We start out with weak northwest flow tonight as a surface trough
lurks/lingers over the CWA. A weak impulse will move in from the
northwest and could spawn some thunderstorm activity with the weak
trough as the focus, along with over 1000 J/Kg MUCAPE possible.
Shear will be quite low, so not expecting severe weather, but we
could get a rumble or two.

Dry and very warm conditions are then expected for Wednesday and
Thursday, upper level ridging is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 349 PM
CDT Tue Aug 16 2016

By Thursday night into Friday, a cold front will bring another
good chance of storms, and this time there will be enough shear
and instability for severe weather. This cold front will be strong
for August, so we`re looking at a significant cool down for the
weekend with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, with a slight
warm-up heading into the next work week.

There should be enough subsidence to keep us dry Saturday, except
for some potential closer to the front in Kansas. Some return flow
will give us a small chance of precip Saturday night through Sunday
night, but tough to say if there would be enough support for severe
weather in this time period yet.

Looks like broad ridging will quell thunderstorm potential into
early next work week.

Made no significant changes to temperature or chances of
precipitation, except for increasing highs a few degrees on Friday
along and ahead of the cold front where compressional heating should
occur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. Winds will be light and variable throughout the overnight
period before becoming more southeasterly and southerly during the
day Wednesday. Skies will be mostly clear with some high clouds.
There is a small chance for thunderstorms this evening and early
overnight period. Currently have left this out of the TAF with the
lack of confidence and will have to amend if it materializes.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Billings Wright



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