Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 020451
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1051 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

SNOW IS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A MIX OF RAIN
OR SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A HEAVIER BAND HAS MOVED NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHICH HAS
DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF OF A MILE WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

THE WINTER STORM:
THIS STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE ARE STILL SMALL VARIABILITIES IN THE TRACK
WHICH COULD SHIFT THE EDGES OF THE SNOW GRADIENT NORTH OR
SOUTH...BUT THE BULK OF THE AREA THAT HAS A FORECAST OF 6-12
INCHES REMAINS UNCHANGED.

THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN DEALING WITH THE SUBTLE
ADJUSTMENTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN SOME AREAS. HAVE
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE
BLIZZARD WARNING TO INCLUDE DAWSON...SHERMAN...VALLEY...GREELEY
AND HOWARD COUNTIES.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE 12 INCH
MARK ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA WITH 8-12 POSSIBLE
NORTHWEST OF A PHILLIPSBURG TO HEBRON LINE. STILL EXPECT THE
GRADIENT OF SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO BE FAIRLY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN MIXING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS THOSE AREAS.

THE MESSAGE REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HEAVIES SNOW WILL FALL OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TOWARDS MORNING AND BEING THE STRONGEST FROM 3AM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

THE UPPER LOW BRINGING THE CURRENT SNOW TO THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE WINDS LET UP.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THERE WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A FEW
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
WITH THE WAVES. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE MID 20S
TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN U.S. THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE WESTERLY WINDS AND THERE WILL BE
A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.
THE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE AROUND NORMAL OR A LITTLE COOLER.

THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WINDS FROM
THE NORTH WILL INCREASE. THE GFS COMES IN WITH A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF IS DRY. HAVE WENT WITH DRY FORECAST FOR NOW SINCE IT APPEARS
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING OFF A LITTLE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

A BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE TERRIBLE UNTIL SNOW LETS UP TUESDAY EVENING.
VISIBILITY COULD DIP TO BELOW 1/4SM OFTEN...DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>085.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ086-
     087.

KS...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ005-006.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BILLINGS WRIGHT
SHORT TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



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