Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 150521
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1221 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

There is a surface boundary near the KS/NE border that is creeping
slowly back to the north. Easterly winds have been present across
south central Nebraska for most of the day. Temperatures have been
in the 80s with 90s in north central Kansas.

The evolution of thunderstorms tonight is the main question for
the short term. The high-res guidance (HRRR/RUC/NAM/NAMnest) have
all indicated thunderstorm development along the surface boundary
over southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. The 18z NAM/NAMnest
indicate indicate that coverage along that boundary is low, until
this evening when activity develops along the KS/NE state line
near Hebron, NE/Belleville, KS. Then activity develops northward
during the early overnight hours as moisture transport increases.
The best chances for precipitation overnight is for areas east of
281 and north of I-80. That being said, do have at least small
chances for all of south central Nebraska and most of north
central Kansas into the morning hours Tuesday. Think some low
clouds are possible over early Tuesday across east central
sections of Nebraska.

The best widespread chances for rainfall will be Tuesday evening
and overnight as an upper level disturbance and associated cold
front moves eastward across the area. As the front approaches
during the late afternoon hours, thunderstorms may develop and
become strong to severe with 2000-3000 J/kg of instability and
decent shear. In addition to the chances for severe storms, heavy
rainfall and localized flooding will be a concern. Precipitation
will continue into the overnight hours before exiting to the
southeast Wednesday morning.

Highs on Tuesday are expected in the 80s and low 90s before the
front passes through.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

With another upper disturbance moving across the Central Plains on
Wednesday, an additional round of showers and thunderstorms is
possible during the daytime hours

The upper level pattern will transition from southwesterly to
zonal Wednesday into Thursday and am currently expecting it to
dry out during that time period. But with zonal flow, every little
disturbance that moves overhead will be additional precipitation
chances. Another wave moves overhead Thursday night and again
Friday night.

The weekend looks mostly dry as weak ridging/slight southwesterly
flow builds into the Central Plains.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly below the mid-upper 80s
norms for mid-August through the work-week, but as the upper ridge
builds in, temperatures will warm for the weekend into the upper
80s and low 90s.

.ECLIPSE

Total Solar Eclipse Monday August 21st around 1pm CDT

There continue to be discrepancies at 7 days out, but there is a
bit more agreement among the ECMWF/Canadian and GFS indicating
that ridging to slight southwesterly flow aloft. There is some
indication of precipitation impacting the area Sunday into Monday
with an additional chance late Monday into Tuesday. Highs are
expected to be in the 80s to low 90s, but the number one question
is cloud cover. At this time, day 7, it continues to be too far
out to confidently assess how much cloud cover there may or may
not be, but at this time, there does look like there could be at
least some cloud cover across Nebraska and the Central Plains.
Continue to stay tuned as we will focus on the Eclipse time period
through the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

There could be a few thunderstorms around the area toward morning,
but the better chance for thunderstorms will be late this
afternoon and evening. The other concern is there could be some
lower visibilities with some fog as lower clouds sag south from
northern Nebraska, but the lower clouds should stay out of the
terminals.


&&

.CLIMATE...

..Grand Island airport is still in the running to POTENTIALLY
threaten record for "Consecutive July-August days without exceeding
85 degrees"..

For those interested in unique consecutive-days streaks, Grand
Island remains in the midst of a fairly impressive streak that could
threaten current records: "Consecutive July-August days without
exceeding 85 degrees". Because both July-Aug are the warmest two
months of the calendar year on average, any prolonged streak without
exceeding 85 is a pretty "big deal", especially considering that
normal/average highs through both months range mainly 84-88 degrees.

As of 4 PM Monday, Grand Island is trying to notch its 20th-
consecutive day without exceeding 85, a stretch that began on July
26th. However, to tie the existing record it would have to "survive"
through the rest of this afternoon and also Tuesday, which is by no
means a guarantee. At any rate, details of the current records
for Grand Island follow:

* Top-4 Longest July-August streaks without exceeding 85 degrees *

- Grand Island (records include 121 years):
21 days...Aug. 11-31, 1964
20 days...July 26-Aug. 14, 2017 (ONGOING)
18 days...July 11-28, 1993
16 days...July 8-23, 1992

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...JCB
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch


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