Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 242139
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
339 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY/GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
AS THE LOW MOVES WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER JET NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
A HIT OR MISS CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...TO OUR
WEST.

HEIGHTS RISE TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TREND UP IN RISING HEIGHTS/WAA
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THE WARMING BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON VARYING CLOUD COVER...AND READINGS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE BALLPARK.  THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFT IS
ALSO ENHANCED IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TOWARD EVENING AS 160KT H3
JET NOSES ONTO THE PLAINS FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
BEGINNING LATE AFTN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE WRF MODEL THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE WRF AS IT PERFORMED WELL WITH
THE SUNDAY RAIN EVENT. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR
TUESDAY AFTN AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIMING.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW H85 AND IT MAY BE MORE OF A SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET BEFORE THINGS SATURATE.  THE LLVL TEMP
PROFILE REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING THRU THE AFTN AND PCPN TYPE WILL
REMAIN AS LIQUID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CHANGE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW THE AREA UNDER CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...CLIPPING THE NERN CORNER OF NE AND INTO WRN/SRN IA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 12Z RUN OF MODELS HAVE SHOWN MORE SUPPORT WITH
THE NRN PORTIONS OF CWA AT LEAST SEE A CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY
THE SRN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...SO HAVE POPS ALONG/EAST OF A LOUP
CITY TO HEBRON LINE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A HEFTY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK NOSING IN FROM THE NW...THINKING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT MAY
COME CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIES THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IT THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WILL START SEEING COOLER AIR BUILDING IN...THUS THE RA/SN
MENTION...BUT THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION.

AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS THAT
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING EAST...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THE NEED FOR MAYBE SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OR
SO AS THAT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SLIDES EAST. SHOULD BE SEEING SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SO KEPT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. EXPECTING IT
TO BE A BREEZY DAY...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
MORNING AND INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL...NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S NE TO LOW/MID 40S SW.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY HOLIDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SFC...START THE DAY OUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT SLIDING IN FROM THE
WEST...SO EXPECT A BUMP UP IN TEMPS...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S NE TO UPPER 40S SW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL SHOWING ANOTHER
NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING MORE
ZONAL...WITH VERY BROAD RIDGING MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO BUILD IN. 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
FRIDAY TO 18Z SATURDAY RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO
NEAR 10C...TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPING
W/SWRLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS...LEAD TO THE HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS BEING TRENDED
UP...AND SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT WASNT ENOUGH.  50S/60S CURRENTLY
GOING...BUT POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAY MAY HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD
60S...WITH INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF AN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. SATURDAY HIGHS ALONE WERE RAISED AROUND 8 DEGREES. LOOK
TO BE A REAL NICE COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEN COMES THE COLD FRONT.  MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...USHERING IN NRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTH LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SO NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN /BUT REMAINING CENTERED TO
THE N/NE OF THE CWA/ WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS ALONG WITH THE
COLDER AIR...WHICH WILL LINGER AROUND INTO MONDAY. HAVE 20S/30S
GOING FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT BUMP UP
FOR MONDAY INTO THE 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND
GUSTS OF 30KTS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS
EVENING. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING
AND HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY


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