Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 252000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
300 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

IT HAS LITERALLY BEEN RAINING ALL DAY IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND IT IS ONGOING. THAT RAIN AND GENERAL CLOUD SHIELD
HAS LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE
TONIGHT AND THE LESSENED THE SEVERE POTENTIAL QUITE A BIT. MOST HI
RES MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS TREND BY LATE MORNING ALREADY...AND
IT HAS NOT CHANGED. HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN THE SOUTEHAST FORECAST AREA WHERE RAIN IS ONGOING...AND CAN/T
RULE OUT A STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM THERE BUT BEST ENVIRONMENT
IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS AND LIKELY TO REMAIN THERE.
TO THE NORTH...A SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH LINE/OUTFLOW REMNANT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS HAS SPARKED SOME STORM ACTIVITY
AND MAY SNEAK SOMETHING TOWARD ORD BY MID EVENING...BUT THAT
IS LOOKING A BIT LESS LIKELY...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE
ARE ABOUT 25% OR LESS. THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR RAIN
CHANCES SEEM EVEN LESS HAVE LOWERED THAT RAIN CHANCE TO ABOUT 20%
FOR THE EVENING.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...HEAT AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH HEAT
INDEX VALUES INTO THE TRIPLE DIGIT REGION AGAIN. THOUGH A BIT
MARGINAL IN SOME AREAS...COLLABORATIVE EFFORT HAS RESULTED IN A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTEHAST 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
1 PM TO 8 PM. THE EASTERN EDGES WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WITH EXCESSIVE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND RECENT RAINFALL...AND RAIN
FALL IN NORTHERN KANSAS THE LAST 30 HOURS WILL KEEP MOISTURE
LEVELS A BIT HIGHER THAN THAN USUAL...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE A BIT WARMER. CASE COULD BE MADE FOR THE WHOLE AREA TO
BE HONEST BUT HAVE DRAWN THE LINE WHICH FITS THE SURROUNDING
OFFICES. ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...JUST PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
EXPECT ANY RAIN CHANCE LATER SUNDAY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE ARE A FEW UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THERE COULD
BE A BREAK MID DAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME HOURS. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE WARM SIDE.

ON TUESDAY THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH AND AT
THE SURFACE THERE IS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND MORE NORTHWEST IN
THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL GET MOSTLY THROUGH THE AREA THEN
WEAKEN AND STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MORE ACROSS THE EAST. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FAR SOUTH IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL PROBABLY BE ENDING DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS WELL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING.

THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LITTLE PRECIPITATION...BUT THE ECMWF HAS A
LITTLE MORE OF A WAVE AND HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN
CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

REALLY THINK THE KGRI/KEAR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR SCATTERED MID
CLOUDS AND BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION IS EAST...SOUTH...AND NORTH OF BOTH CITIES...BUT
ONE CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME STORM ACTIVITY FOR A TIME.
EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ063-064-
     075>077-084>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ



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