Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
FXUS63 KGID 261723
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1223 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016
An area of surface high pressure across the high plains will
transition southeastward into the lower Missouri river valley
later today. Thanks to clear skies and light winds associated with
this area of high pressure, an unseasonably cool start to the
weekend is being observed across the local area this morning.
While patchy frost is possible in low lying spots and
valleys...primarily northeast of the tri-cities...dew point
spreads remain around 5 degrees as of 4 AM CST...so any frost
formation should be very limited and did not issue a frost
advisory due to the spotty nature of any frost that does develop
over the next 3 to 4 hours.
Later today...expect winds to gradually increase from the
northwest as this area of high pressure shifts further away from
the local area. While truly breezy conditions are not
anticipated...seasonably cool afternoon temperatures along with
these light northwesterly breezes should make for a very pleasant
afternoon across the local area.
Thanks to some warm air advection associated with the
aforementioned northwesterly flow...expect overnight temperatures
tonight to be 5 to 7 degrees above this mornings lows...well above
potential frost formation levels.
Overall...after an unseasonably cool start to the day...
comfortable temperatures and dry weather are both anticipated
for the remainder of the day and through the overnight hours
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016
Aloft: At dawn Tue pertinent features will be a deep low over the
GtLakes...a small subtropical high over the GtBasin and another low
over Baja. Changes upstream over the Pac will result in a deep
trof/low forming over the E Pac this week. Downstream the Westerlies
will retreat into Ern Canada...leaving the GtLakes low cut-off and
milling around the Ern USA. Here on the Cntrl Plains...the flow will
be NW-N thru Fri...between a ridge immediately to the W and the Ern
low. The Baja low will open up and become absorbed into the
developing SW flow over the Wrn USA. There is still some
uncertainty in if/how this trof affects the fcst area. The 12Z/25
EC ensemble mean brings it thru here Fri. It`s doubtful there will
be enough moisture for precip. This trof will nudge the ridge
E...putting the fcst area in SW flow next weekend as the E Pac
trof moves onshore.
Surface: Wrn USA high pres will be influencing the Cntrl Plains Tue.
A major push of cool air will circulate around the W side of the Ern
USA low. A back door cool front (coming in from the NE) will slide
thru here Wed. Strengthening high pres around the Nrn/Wrn periphery
of the Ern USA low will then influence the fcst area thru Fri. Next
weekend it appears a warm front will form from NW-SE across the
region as a low pres sys presses deeper inland over the Wrn USA.
Very little has changed from fcst reasoning on the last 2 night
shifts. One notable trend is the greater potency of the cooldown
after Tue. While temps will be a few degs above normal Tue...they
will cool down to normal Wed and below normal Thu-Sat.
As expected yesterday...the model consensus now has Thu night and
Fri dry. A narrow plume of marginally decent Gulf moisture along
with increasing instability and WAA could results in some spotty
shwr/tstm activity Fri night-Sun
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals throughout the valid
The only noteworthy item will be the winds. A slight shift in
wind direction will occur later this afternoon from west to a more
northwesterly wind, and then wind speeds go light and variable
through the remainder of the TAF.