Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 150557

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1157 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

12Z upper air analysis along with water vapor imagery showing
zonal flow at 500 mb across much of the CONUS with several weak
embedded shortwaves, one of which is heading our direction from
the northern U.S. Rockies. 12 hr, 500 mb height falls across MT
and WY this morning were in the 40 to 80 meter ranges. At the
surface, low pressure was located over central SDak and another
was in southeast CO. A cold front extended WSW of the SDak low and
was just entering NW Neb early this afternoon. Not much of a temp
contrast ahead or behind the front, but a definite moisture
difference with surface dewpoints in the lower 50s over
eastern/central Neb, but only in the mid 20s in far NW Neb. Better
high fall/rise couplet noted near the northern part of the front,
closer to the mid level forcing. GOES-16 visible imagery showing
the stratus lingering over almost all of our CWA with clearing
line just making it into the ODX area by 20Z.

Question for tonight is when will the cold front pass through the
CWA, and clear out the low clouds and fog as it does so? Am
concerned fog may reform this evening, especially in the southeast
part of the CWA. Believe the front will approach the NW CWA around
03Z and sweep through quickly, exiting the southeast CWA by 08Z.
Conditions will improve rapidly behind the front in terms of low
clouds and fog, however winds should be gusty out of the NW behind
the front. With much drier air moving in, expect mainly sunny skies
on Wed. As noted above, not a lot of cool air behind the front so
most of the area will top out in the mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Much of the extended period looks dry and fairly quiet. The one
exception appears to take place Fri night into Saturday when a
decent shortwave is slated to move eastward across the Plains.
Models are not generating a lot of QPF with this system until it
gets farther east of us. Would expect light rain for the most
part although some snow could mix in late Friday night. We are
also expecting a windy period from Thursday afternoon ahead of the
front, until Saturday afternoon, behind the front. Once that
system passes, dry and seasonal weather should return for the
rest of the weekend and into the first part of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1154 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Biggest concern will be low-level wind shear overnight, at least
in the first few hours as surface wind speeds are not all that
strong behind a cold front that just passed, as compare to wind
speeds aloft. Any ceilings or visibility below VFR have since been
mixed out and should not be an issue.




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