Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 221116
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
516 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

ALMOST AFRAID TO SAY IT OUT OF FEAR OF JINXING...BUT TOP TO
BOTTOM THIS IS PROBABLY THE OVERALL "QUIETEST"/STRAIGHTFORWARD
SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FORECASTER HAS WORKED IN AWHILE AS WE
ENTER OUR 8TH-CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE/NORMAL TEMPS. WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTER AROUND THE EVOLUTION/EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION OF LOWER STRATUS THIS MORNING THAT PRESENTLY BLANKETS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. BARRING ANY UNEXPECTED
DEVELOPMENTS...THERE SHOULD BE NO RISK OF "HAZARDOUS WEATHER" OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS EVEN FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS SHOULD REMAIN
IN CHECK.

AS FOR THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 0830Z/230AM...NO LEGIT PRECIPITATION
IS NOTED ANYWHERE NEAR THE CWA...WHILE WELL TO THE SOUTH...A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND SOME SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TX PANHANDLE AND OK...ASSOCIATED WITH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/UPPER JET DYNAMICS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
LARGE-SCALE...VERY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WHOSE CENTRAL AXIS
EXTENDS FROM A VIGOROUS VORT MAX OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION...THEN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA (IN A MUCH WEAKER FASHION) AND
LOOSELY CONNECTS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS/SOUTHEAST CANADA. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...PRONOUNCED RIDGING
DOMINATES THE WESTERN 1/4 OR SO OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...08Z
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND AUTOMATED OBS REVEALS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
EMANATING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A MODEST SURFACE LOW CENTERED WAY TO
THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. LOCALLY...THIS RIDGE AXIS IS
PROVIDING A GENERAL 3-9 MPH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE TO MOST
OF THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE AND AS EVIDENT ON 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CWA CURRENTLY FEATURES A MIX OF
ESSENTIALLY CLEAR SKIES WEST...A FAIRLY SOLID BLANKET OF LOWER
STRATUS EAST BASED AROUND 3000 FT...AND ONLY A THIN VEIL OF HIGH
CIRRUS BRUSHING SOUTHERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PRECIP-MAKER. TEMPS AS OF 230AM
RANGE FROM NEAR-20 IN CLEARER WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES TO NEAR-30
UNDER THE THICKER STRATUS IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORECAST...

VERY SHORT TERM (THROUGH DAYBREAK): THE MAIN ISSUE IS EVOLUTION OF
THE PESKY STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF OUR EASTERN 1/2.  USUALLY
FAIRLY RELIABLE MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13/HRRR AND EVEN THE 06Z NAM
CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THIS STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO EITHER ERODE
FROM WITHIN AND/OR ADVECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA BY BY MID-MORNING AT THE LATEST. INTERESTINGLY...LAST FEW
SATELLITE FRAMES ARE SHOWING A FEW MODEST HOLES PUNCHING INTO THIS
STRATUS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GEAR SKY COVER TOWARD A FAIRLY-
RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING IN
MOST ZONES. GIVEN EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED CLEARING...ACTUALLY
HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE WHATSOEVER TO INHERITED LOW TEMPS FOR
THIS MORNING...AS ALTHOUGH PRESENTLY-CLOUDIER AREAS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO DROP...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL EVENTUALLY
BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 18-22 RANGE...WITH SOME COLDER MID-
TEENS EVEN FAIR GAME MAINLY IN FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN NEB COUNTIES.
WILL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO ADJUST THESE VERY NEAR-TERM TEMP/SKY
COVER GRIDS TO MATCH REALITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DAYTIME HOURS: ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT STRATUS STEADILY VACATES
EVEN THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY MID-MORNING OR SO...THE DAY AS A WHOLE
SHOULD AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...ALTHOUGH A THIN VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD LINGER MAINLY
OVER OUR SOUTH IN KS ZONES ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE LARGE
CIRRUS SHIELD...BEFORE EVEN THESE CLOUDS DEPART SOUTHWARD IN
TANDEM WITH THE LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS SINKING
SOUTHWARD AS WELL. SPEAKING OF THIS LARGE-SCALE TROUGH...BY SUNSET
ITS CENTRAL MID-UPPER AXIS SHOULD LIE ALONG A LINE FROM WESTERN KS
TO FAR SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS...AS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
THEN EXPANDS TO ITS NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DOWN AT THE
SURFACE...THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA AS THE DAY GOES ON WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA. THE NET RESULT WILL BE INITIALLY RATHER
LIGHT/SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BREEZES THIS MORNING BECOMING STEADIER
FROM A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY RANGING FROM ONLY 5-10 MPH IN SOUTHERN
ZONES TO MORE-SO 10-15 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-80. NO MATTER WHAT...LIGHTER BREEZES THAN ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMP-WISE...ALTHOUGH MIXING MAY NOT BE AS DEEP AS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERLY BREEZES WILL PROMOTE MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION TODAY AS EVIDENT AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL. AFTER
BLENDING A FEW MODELS AND LEANING TOWARD THE MILDER RAP13
SOLUTION...ENDED UP MAKING VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH WAS ALREADY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER END OF SOLUTIONS. THUS
AIMING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY 42-46 ACROSS THE CWA...GENERALLY
WARMEST WEST AND COOLEST EAST.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: OTHER THAN ONLY A LIMITED INCREASE IN MID-
HIGH CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN ZONES VERY LATE IN THE NIGHT...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY DARN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS
DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD-SINKING TROUGH...WHOSE AXIS SHOULD STRETCH
FROM WEST TX TO NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER BY 12Z/6AM. THE POSSIBLE
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE NIGHT WOULD BE
STREAMING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN CANADA AND HEADED TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
TROUGH AXIS TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN DISTURBANCE
WILL IMPINGE UPON THE LOCAL AREA AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. NOT ONLY
WILL THIS FOSTER CONTINUED WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT
IT COULD ACTUALLY INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES A BIT LATE IN THE
NIGHT. INITIALLY THIS EVENING...LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD
PREVAIL BUT THEN BECOMING STEADIER AT 10+ MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE. ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE A POSSIBLE SETUP FOR STEADYING-OUT
TO SLOWLY RISING LATE-NIGHT TEMPS IN SOME SPOTS...DO NOT THINK IT
WILL BE VERY PRONOUNCED AS THE GREATEST CONTRIBUTION TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY COME FROM THE CLEAR SKIES AND INITIALLY RATHER
LIGHT BREEZES...WHICH SHOULD FOSTER DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
MUCH LIKE HIGHS TEMPS TODAY...ACTUALLY MADE VERY LITTLE ALTERATION
TO TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPS...WHICH REPRESENT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
SLIGHTLY COLDER RAW 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE VALUES AND SLIGHTLY TOO-
WARM LOOKING RAW MODEL 2 METER TEMPS. THE NET RESULT IS LOWS AIMED
INTO THE 19-23 RANGE MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL
EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO START
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...THUS
ALLOWING FOR NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AND
SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THAT
SAID...SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE EC SUGGESTS THE LEFT-FRONT
QUADRANT OF A ~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA SATURDAY.
BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE INHERITED FORECAST DID NOT HAVE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...AND THE FACT THAT THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS ARE BOTH DRY...OPTED TO ALSO KEEP THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DRY...BUT THIS IS STILL SOMETHING WORTH MONITORING IN THE
COMING DAYS.

IN ADDITION TO THE ANTICIPATED DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH GUIDANCE PROVIDING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

GIVEN ALL THIS...CURRENTLY THERE IS NO REAL SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
OR HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER OF ANY KIND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AND AS A RESULT...HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN
THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

GIVEN THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD CARRIES A FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO RISK
OF PRECIPITATION...THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES RIGHT AWAY DURING
THESE VERY FIRST FEW HOURS MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. DURING THIS
TIME...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST A BRIEF MVFR CEILING COULD
OCCUR AT EITHER TERMINAL...BUT BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA...LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD
EITHER 1) QUICKLY VACATE THE AREA ALTOGETHER OR 2) REMAIN JUST
ABOVE MVFR LEVELS IN LOW-END VFR TERRITORY. AS A RESULT...WILL
ADVERTISE A VFR CEILING AND FOREGO ANY TEMPO MVFR GROUPS UNLESS
SUBSEQUENT OBS "FORCE" AN AMENDMENT. NO MATTER WHAT...ANY RISK
FOR MVFR CEILING SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY AROUND 14Z...WITH LITTLE
IF ANY CONSEQUENTIAL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WIND-WISE...NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOULD LARGELY AVERAGE UNDER
12KT...INITIALLY RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS MORNING...THEN
TRANSITIONING TO STEADIER SOUTHWESTERLY BY AFTERNOON...A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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