Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 150535
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1235 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The surface front/trough is sitting off to the northwest of the
forecast area over northern/west-central Nebraska. Winds have been
relatively breezy and across southern Nebraska and northern
Kansas. Highs have risen into the 90s across most locations, which
is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

The main concern tonight will be precipitation/thunderstorm
chances across the area. Think the better chances will be along
the front across western sections namely Dawson to Buffalo
counties and northeast into central Nebraska. During the
remainder of the night, there are chances across the whole area
for precipitation with a weak wave and moisture transport. Do not
expect this activity to be severe with weaker shear and modest
instability.

Winds will really increase during the day tomorrow as lee
troughing deepens. Expect to see southerly winds 20 to 25 mph and
gusts to 30 mph. Again think highs will be in the 90s across the
area.

The front will begin to push southeastward slightly in the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Convergence along the front will
help to fire thunderstorms into the afternoon and evening hours.
The best chances for thunderstorms will be north of Interstate 80,
but cannot rule out thunderstorms across south central Nebraska.

There is better agreement among the guidance on the timing of the
frontal passage. The NAM/GFS/EC are all fairly similar showing the
front passing through the area during the overnight hours Friday
into Saturday. As the front pushes southeast and the moisture
transport veers the best chances for precipitation will evolve to
eastern sections of Nebraska and Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

This afternoon`s model guidance suggests that the front will slow
its southeastward progression during the day Saturday...sitting
across the forecast area for much of the day. No matter how it
plays out, this front is fairly strong and there will be a fairly
sharp gradient from behind to ahead of the front. Who ends up on
which side is still a question. Right now it looks like areas
behind the front which could be west of Hwy 281 by mid-morning
Saturday could have highs in the 60s to 70s. While areas east of
there would see highs in the 80s and low 90s. Expect changes on
Saturday`s highs as this continues to be fine tuned.

There is a chance for thunderstorms across eastern sections of the
area along and east of the front for Saturday afternoon and
evening. During the Saturday overnight hours, some moisture
transport could help to spark some thunderstorms over north
central Kansas.

Sunday is expected to be closer to or below normal as the area
sits under high pressure behind the cold front.

The front is expected to lift back to the north Sunday night,
which is expected to be a focus for thunderstorm development
across the area.

Through the remainder of the forecast, southwesterly upper level flow
persists, with a strong disturbance approaching the area from the
west. There are timing differences among the guidance for this
main upper wave, and thus the timing for another cold front for
the mid-to-late week time frame is difficult to pin down. Before
the front passes, highs are expected in the 80s, with cooler temps
for later in the week. As the frontal passage timing becomes more
clear, a better idea for temps will develop. There are numerous
chances for precipitation...mainly over eastern sections through
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

A frontal boundary across central NE will be the focus for
overnight convection. Only mentioned thunder as VCTS as do not
have high confidence if thunderstorms will impact TAF sites early
this morning. LLWS is another issue tonight and is evident on
Radar and the models are hinting at it also, so put it in for both
TAF sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Fire weather conditions are not as prime tomorrow as they were
today. Mainly the relative humidity values are not expected to get
quite as low. Today, relative humidly values have hovered just
above 20 percent and winds are just shy of the 20mph/25mph gusts
needed for a red flag warning. Tomorrow, think the winds will
easily reach the necessary criteria, but relative humidly values
are higher in the 25 to 30 percent range. However, if this is
adjusted downward on later shifts, could see fire weather concerns
jump to the forefront. As it stands, conditions will be near
critical.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Beda
FIRE WEATHER...Billings Wright



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