Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 212018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
318 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Satellite and observations indicate the clouds over the area are
cirrus and fairly thin. South winds have increased this afternoon
ahead of a surface trough in the western part of Nebraska and

There is an upper level ridge to the west of the forecast area this
afternoon and this will linger through Saturday as it becomes more
broad across the CONUS. The surface trough to the west of the
forecast area this afternoon is expected to remain on the high
plains and weaken some.

Tonight there will be warm advection across the area, but with clear
skies and winds becoming lighter, there will still be some
radiational cooling. Some areas will be a little warmer than last
night, but some will have similar temperatures. It is a matter of
which wins, the warm advection which is above the surface or the
radiational cooling at the surface. Some of the coolest
temperatures will be moderated just a little.

The pressure gradient tightens a little on Saturday. The winds aloft
are a little lighter than today and so although it will be a little
breezy, it should not be quite as strong as today. Skies will be
sunny and with the warm advection, south winds and the upper ridge a
little further to the east, the temperatures will be warmer than

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

The surface low and trough that has been lingering on the high
plains will move through the forecast area Saturday night. Even
through the cold front moves through, temperatures will be warmer as
the winds turn to the west. By Sunday, the winds turn to the north
and a little cooler air moves into the area. There is a surface high
that settles into the area Sunday and Sunday night and winds will be
lighter. By Monday, the upper ridge continues to drift to the east,
the surface high is moving east and winds will turn to the south.
Temperatures will still be in the 60s, a little above normal.

Monday night there is an upper level wave approaching. Winds from
the south will bring moisture to the area and clouds will start to
increase. Lows will be warmer since there will be low level moisture
pushing into the area.

The upper level wave moves through the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night. A surface low and cold front moves through the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening. There are still a few differences in the
models for this period, but the main features are there. The main
question will be the timing of the front as it moves through. There
is MUCAPE over 1000 j/kg during the afternoon and into the early
evening hours. The precipitation will be most likely near the front
and as it moves out so will the precipitation.

For the period Wednesday through Friday, another upper level ridge
builds into the western CONUS and after a surface high pressure
system drifts through Wednesday, the winds turn to the south and
temperatures will remain in the 60s and 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Some cirrus lingers across the area this afternoon, but should be
moving out. South winds have increased and should diminish as the
sun goes down this evening. The winds may pick up a little in the
morning tomorrow, but that would be late in the period.




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