Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 272119
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
319 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Current radar has showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm moving
through the central to northeast part of the forecast area.
Satellite shows clearing in or near the southwest portion of the
area this afternoon. Surface analysis still has the low pressure
system near the Nebraska/Kansas/Colorado borders.

The main question for the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening is if there will be enough instability near the clearing
line to start a few thunderstorms. The HRRR has been consistent with
having some convection that starts in the north central Kansas
counties and moves to the northeast from there. There is also a
small area that starts up in the west before moving to the
northeast. The best timing for the thunderstorms will be from about
3pm to 6pm. There is still a question as to how much instability
there will be. The RAP brings a small area of 500 to 1000 j/kg into
the southwest and pushes it across as it weakens. Once the sun goes
down this evening, that should effectively cut off chances for
thunder.

The precipitation should move off to the northeast of the forecast
area during the evening hours and there should be some clearing
behind the precipitation. As the surface low moves to the
east/northeast into this evening. The winds should turn to the west
and bring in drier air to the area during the evening hours. The
clearing skies and drier air should allow temperatures to fall off
into the mid 30s.

A little wrap around moisture will bring some clouds back to the
area for a time on Monday, but the clouds will move out during the
afternoon. Temperatures will warm back into the lower 50s during the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

There will be mostly northwest flow across the area through this
period. There are a few waves that move through the area. Have kept
the forecast dry through the period, but each of the waves brings an
increase in cloud cover and a weak cold front. The first wave moves
through Monday night. Temperatures will be cooler Tuesday and there
will be a few more clouds around. Temperatures will remain cooler
than normal with in and out clouds Wednesday through Friday. A
surface high moves through the area on Friday and when it moves to
the southeast Friday night, winds will turn back to the south and
temperatures will start a slow increase back to near normal for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Showers and maybe a few isolated thunderstorms will move through
the terminals this afternoon. Lower clouds should gradually give
way to higher clouds as the surface low moves to the northeast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB



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