Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241732
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1232 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

...MULTIPLE THREATS OF TSTMS THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AND SOME COULD BE
SVR BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON E OF HWY 281...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THIS SERVES AS A FIRST AND PROBABLY FINAL DRAFT FOR THIS SHIFT. WE
WILL BE MONITORING RADAR/SAT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM THIS
POINT ON. GOES E WILL BEGIN RAPID SCAN AT 1815Z.

PLEASE MONITOR SPC MESO DISCUSSIONS AND ANY WATCHES/STATEMENTS/
WARNINGS FROM THIS OFFICE.

ALOFT: THE UPR LOW ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER WILL HEAD SLOWLY ENE
TONIGHT AND INTO MN TOMORROW. HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL OVER TAKE THE CNTRL PLAINS TOMORROW...AS THE FIRST LOW
LIFTS NE AND ANOTHER RAPIDLY FORMS OVER NV/UT. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS (130 M) WILL OCCUR OVER THE SW USA TONIGHT.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS OVER SD WITH A DRY TROF EXTENDING S THRU
THE FCST AREA. THIS TROF WILL CONT E AND EXIT THE FCST AREA BY
00Z. THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT WAS WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND WILL BE ENTERING THE NEB PANHANDLE
SHORTLY. THIS FRONT WILL RACE E...REACHING LXN/ODX BY 01Z AND
CLEARING THE ERN BORDER OF THE FCST AREA BY 06Z.

THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT HEADS E ACROSS MN INTO WI.
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ORIENTED FROM W-E ACROSS KS
BY TOMORROW WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING OVER CO. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THREATENING WX TUE.

REST OF THIS AFTN: WE`RE IN MONITORING MODE. HEATING IS BEING
INHIBITED BY INCREASING CLOUDS INDUCE BY LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ALOFT. BREAKS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH HEATING TO
INITIATE A FEW STORMS E OF HWY 281 AFTER 2 PM.

STRENGTH/DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR PROFILE WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
CONVECTIVE MODE BEFORE STORMS QUICKLY EXIT INTO ERN NEB/KS.

CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE NNE AT 40-45 KTS.

SPOTTERS/SKYWARN: MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL. PLEASE RELAY ALL
REPORTS OF HAIL/WIND DMG.

SVR TSTM THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 6 PM. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SHWR/TSTM OR TWO SNEAK INTO S-CNTRL NEB N OF HWY 92 IN THE COOLER
AIR/WEAK INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. NONE
OF THESE WILL BE STRONG. PURELY A LTG THREAT.

GRADUAL CLEARING FROM W-E.

TONIGHT: ANY EVENING SHWRS DISSIPATE. MID-LVL WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THRU FROM W-E WITH A CLEARING TREND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AS TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

MON: SUNNY AND DRY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

MONDAY THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...BUT A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THERE IS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS THE WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BRING IN
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A
WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. MUCAPE OF UP TO 5000 J/KG ARE
FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EVEN WHEN THE
MUCAPE DECREASES SOME. EXPECT THERE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
OF THEM COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE TRACK
AND SPEED OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. THE GFS
TAKES THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. WITH THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO
AN END IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA A LITTLE EARLIER.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT EVEN THE ECMWF STARTS TO PULL FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NORTH THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE IS LITTLE CAPE LEFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
HAVE JUST SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. EVEN WITH THE
DIFFERENCES BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSRA UNTIL 22Z AT GRI.

THIS AFTERNOON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS. HSI AND AUH ARE BKN025
AT 17Z AND SOME OF THIS COULD BRIEFLY SKIRT BY GRI BEFORE 19Z.
THERE IS A WIND SHIFT BETWEEN GRI AND EAR. MOST HIGH-RES MODELS
KEEP WINDS SW AT GRI WHILE EAR WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL BEFORE
ORGANIZING FROM THE SW AGAIN. THERE IS A SLGT CHANCE FOR A TSRA AT
GRI. DECREASING CLOUDS AT EAR. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VFR WITH A PERIOD OF BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 10K FT. CLEARING
AFTER 06Z. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOME W. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON THRU 18Z: VFR SKC. WNW WINDS 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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