000
FXUS63 KGID 140541
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...BUT DID INCREASE
FCST DWPTS E OF HWY 183 WHERE THEY WERE RUNNING LOWER THAN
REALITY. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO LOW TEMPS OVERNGT...
PRIMARILY LOWERING THE BIG RADIATORS A COUPLE MORE DEGS.

PLAN TO RE-EVALUATE FIRE WX POTENTIAL. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT WINDS
WILL MEET CRITICAL THRESHOLD OF 20 KTS SUSTAINED OR FQT G25 KTS.
WE/LL COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. EXPECT A CONVERSION TO
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOME OF OUR NEB COUNTIES AROUND 330 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY.

AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TREKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINATION OF RIDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER
IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...MUCH WARMER 850 MB AIR
HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS. FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES WERE ON
THE ORDER OF 18 TO 22 CELSIUS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. HEADING INTO TUESDAY...850 TEMPERATURES
ARE WARMER STILL...PUSHING INTO THE 25 TO 28 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE.
THE NAM SOLUTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE HOTTEST SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH
OTHER MODELS STILL INDICATE SOME HEAT IS UPON US.
THEREFORE...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 95 TO 97 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD
VALUES WITH GRAND ISLAND AT 99 SET IN 1941 AND HASTINGS 97 ALSO IN
1941.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN TRANSITION INTO A COOL FRONT FOR
TUESDAY EVENING. COMBINED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...STRONG MIXING WILL
HELP DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON
WITH SUSTAINED VALUES APPROACHING 15 TO 20 KTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE REMAINS AT LEAST SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ALL OF THIS BEING SAID...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH BEST
CONDITIONS FOR FIRE GROWTH EXIST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MORE
MOISTURE IN RECENT MONTHS HAS ALLOWED KANSAS ZONES TO BECOME GREENER
AND THUS NOT AS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE GROWTH. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT AFTER NEIGHBOR
COLLABORATION...IT WAS DECIDED TO HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...FOR
MOST OF THE NEBRASKA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

WE BEGIN WITH TUESDAY EVENING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW. FLOW WILL
BE ESSENTIALLY QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A
WEAKNESS IN HEIGHTS SHOWING UP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER WE CAN BREAK
THE CAP OR NOT. MUCAPES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND
THE BEST BULK SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND
NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEND TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT...BUT IF SOMETHING DID POP TUESDAY EVENING...THE INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS CLEARLY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD MOST CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED...LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS WIDELY FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN CWA INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE 850 MB FRONT.

WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...I SEE LITTLE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION...SAVE PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO WHERE THE
FRONT IS PREDICTED TO BE STALLED.

BY THURSDAY...THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL EITHER WASH OUT OR MOVE
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...DEPENDING ON THE SOLUTION ONE
BELIEVES. A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND THETA E ADVECTION COMMENCES
OVER THE PLAINS. WITH LESS POTENTIAL OF A FOCUS OVER THE
CWA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ESPECIALLY HIGH TO ME FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WITH A WEAK PERTURBATION BEING FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH...ALONG WITH THETA E ADVECTION/RIDGE...I COULD NOT RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME
SATURDAY EVENING AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
AND SENDS A COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS DRY LINE OUR WAY. THIS IS A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS...HOWEVER TIMING IS NOT
EXACTLY IN AGREEMENT. STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BOTH SPELL POTENTIAL SEVERE RISK FOR THE AREA FOR THIS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT PERIOD.

THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A TROUGHY
PERIOD WITH AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TAKES ITS TIME MAKING ITS WAY EAST...AND SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS RIDING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS COULD BE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER AND MOST OF THIS PERIOD HAS A SHOT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

THRU 12Z: VFR WITH BKN 25K FT CIRRUS CIGS WILL BECOME SCT. SSW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE 10-15 KTS.

TUE: VFR. THERE IS A VERY LOW PROB FOR A TSTM AFTER 21Z. IF A TSTM
HAPPENS TO DEVELOP INVOF THE TERMINAL...THERE IS A RISK OF 50 KT
MICROBURST WINDS AND SVR WIND SHEAR. SSW WINDS AVERAGE 15 KTS.

TUE THRU 06Z: VFR. VERY LOW PROB FOR A TSTM CONTINUES. SW WINDS
DECREASE AND MAY BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE UNTIL A COOL FRONT MOVES
THRU AROUND 01Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO NE.

CIGS CONFIDENCE: HIGH
VSBY CONFIDENCE: HIGH
WIND CONFIDENCE: HIGH
WX CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-086-087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB