Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 122007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
307 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

The weather remains quiet across the central plains today with
prevalent sunshine and unseasonably mild temperatures well into the
80s to near 90 degrees. Aloft we see remnants of Irma to the
southeast in MS/AL, upper ridging extending from AZ/NM north through
the Rockies/western plains, an upper low pressure system in the
Pacific off the coast of CA, and fairly zonal flow across the
Canadian provinces. Weaker shortwave troughs were translating
through the flow and the wave currently located in eastern WY may
generate some hit or miss light precipitation across our area

Several forecast models continue to indicate at least some chance
for a sprinkle/shower and possibly a weak storm across our
western/northern zones after 06Z. We currently have some low pops in
the forecast for this area which still look reasonable at this
time. Anything which develops should be isolated and any rain
light with limited moisture below H7.

Convection if it develops is expected to dissipate by morning or
shortly thereafter with dry conditions forecast for the daytime
hours Wednesday. Temps will remain unseasonably warm with highs
generally 90 to 95 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Small chances for precipitation return Wednesday night with the
passage of a shortwave trough, approaching frontal boundary and a
strengthening low level jet. The upper ridge axis begins to break
down Thursday as an upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest.
Flow transitions southwesterly ahead of the approaching system
and in a tightening surface gradient with a deepening low along
the high plains, steady/gusty south winds are expected to develop
especially across our southern zones Thursday.

We remain in the warm air ahead of the approaching upper system
through the end of the week, then the upper trough and cooler air
move onto the plains over the weekend. Current timing of the cold
frontal boundary is during the day Saturday, with the boundary
generally through our cwa by evening. Cold air advection will drop
temperatures closer or below seasonal normals over the weekend.
Surface high pressure reinforces the cooler airmass Sunday and
temperatures will be noticeably cooler in the 70s/near 80F. The
airmass moderates early next week as the upper trough lifts out
and a warm front lifts north.

As far as precipitation chances Thursday night into next week,
intermittent small chances remain in the forecast for various
portions of the area and chances will be refined based on timing
and location of waves/frontal boundaries.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through the taf period. Clear skies
will give way to some mid level clouds late tonight into Wednesday
morning and winds will remain from a southerly direction.





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