Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
FXUS63 KGID 160859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
359 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Today...A very weak mid-level wave will track out of eastern
Colorado and could bring a few sprinkles or very light rain
showers to portions of our forecast area generally south of I-80.
Little if any precipitation is expected, but can not rule out a
passing sprinkle or brief light shower. The clouds have been
increasing across our area this morning and radar is showing some
of these sprinkles/light showers moving into our western zones.
The HRRR forecast model has for several runs been consistently
indicating a band of sporadic light showers this morning. Over
time the favorable zone for light showers will shift south from
southern Nebraska more into northern Kansas. Again, this does not
appear to be a big deal, just a few isolated passing sprinkles or
very light rain showers. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today
behind the cool front and with the increased clouds. Most areas
will top out in the mid to upper 60s.

Tonight...There is good model consensus that we will dry out and
the wind will go light. Therefore, we may need to watch out for
some patchy fog, but not enough confidence in the fog to include
in the forecast at this time, but may be added later.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

The long-term period starts off with a quiet and pleasant day on
Monday as high temperatures reach the 70s across the entire region.
Precipitation chances return late Monday night into Tuesday as a
quick-moving shortwave traverses across the Dakotas. I expect that
the best coverage will stay north of the area where 850mb
convergence is a bit stronger. Central Nebraska and northern Kansas
will probably only see isolated to scattered coverage at best.

This activity should exit the area by around midday Tuesday, but
thunderstorms return to the forecast Tuesday evening associated with
a stout LLJ ahead of another shortwave crossing the Rockies. Latest
SPC has the NE/KS border in a Marginal severe risk for this period,
and can`t really argue with that. GFS has ~1500 J/kg of MUCAPE
Tuesday night, so wouldn`t be surprised to get some severe hail with
the strongest storms. Into Wednesday, models have been pretty
consistent developing a surface low that tracks across either
northern KS or Nebraska. This could be favorable for another round
of severe weather somewhere in the KS/NE region, but too much
uncertainty remains to get any more specific than that.

Dry conditions are still expected for Thursday, but a significantly
more amplified wave will move through the area Friday into Saturday.
The GFS and ECMWF are starting to come into a little better
agreement, as both have the H500 low centered over Kansas at 12Z
Saturday. With this track, instability would be pretty limited for
our area.  There is still enough variability in the GEFS ensemble
members that I maintained a slight chance of thunder for now,

It appears that weather will be a bit quieter Sunday into the early
part of the following week as a amplified upper-level ridge moves
into the area.

As far as temperatures go, the latter half of the week will be
markedly cooler with highs in the 60s instead of the 70s that we`ve
gotten used to as of late. Low temperatures could even dip back into
the 30s next Saturday and Sunday mornings, especially north and west
of the Tri-Cities.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

VFR conditions should prevail throughout the TAF valid period.
Expect clear skies at TAF onset should give way to at least a
scattered mid level deck through much of the day. However, any
measurable rainfall should be well south of KGRI and KEAR. The
wind will gradually shift from northerly early this morning to
southeast by this afternoon as a sfc high slides southeast to the
northeast and east of our forecast area.




LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Wesely is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.