Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 231719
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE IN THE SOUTH THE WESTERN
EDGE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE MAIN WAVE THROUGH TODAY THEN
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL BE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND
THE 4KM WRF BOTH MOVE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM ALSO
MOVES IT THROUGH BUT HAS A LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECONDARY
WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS HAS MORE PRECIPITATION
ALL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ALREADY SHOWING UP...EXPECT
THAT THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY BUT EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FURTHER WEST.
EXPECT THAT THESE WILL GET INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABLILIZE THE AREA. FORECAST
MUCAPE OF UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET A
STRONG STORM GOING IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
TO LIFT NORTH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EXPECTED TO EXTEND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO END DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EXITS THE REGION...AND
FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LATE IN THE EXTENDED...EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY MINIMAL...EXPECT AT
LEAST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY THE EXTENDED MODELS HANDLE THIS
CUTOFF LOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE NO ISSUE JUSTIFYING THE
SMALL CHANCE POPS THE BLENDED FORECAST PRODUCED THIS MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...AVERAGING GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FALL. IN ADDITION...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND WITH NO APPRECIABLE DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...BEFORE EVENTUALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
WEST COAST LOW ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THAT SAID...OTHER THAN THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH AT
THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE NON SEVERE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
WEATHER TO SPEAK OF FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER COULD BECOME MORE DENSE...AND IN FACT ONE SET OF GUIDANCE
GOES AS FAR AS TO SUGGEST MVFR TO PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED AT GRI TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT OVERLY HIGH THAT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED SO
FOR NOW...WILL PRESENT A CEILING NEAR 4000FT AGL AT GRI...AND GO
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 2000FT AGL FOR BOTH GRI AND EAR AND LET
FUTURE SHIFTS INCREASE CLOUD DENSITY IF NEED BE. THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROMOTE
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT AND AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD WITH SUCH
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF 04-13Z. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK MAY
ALSO PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACTUALLY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT 8-15KTS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AND ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND
21KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BRYANT


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