Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 201952
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
252 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS HAS
BROUGHT DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITION TO OUR REGION.  UNDER
FULL INSOLATION AFTN TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE MO RIVER
TONIGHT AND RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SET UP BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DPS RISING NEAR OR IN THE
50S BY AFTN.

EARLIER THIS MORNING AN AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA ALONG THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT.
ATTM...MODELS SUGGEST THE LOWER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO
THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA.  EVEN ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS
THERE WAS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SOME
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST IN CASE.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES FORCING THE
UPPER RIDGE TO MIGRATE TO THE EAST.  THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE WARM
FOR LATE OCTOBER AND WE ARE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
START IN THE WEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE MOST PART. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE IS ALSO ABOUT 300 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY



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