Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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195
FXUS63 KGID 101005
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUDS HAS MOVED EAST INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.

THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
TURN WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...GRADUALLY TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST. ALSO THE CLOUD COVER THAT IS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA SHOULD ALSO PUSH TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM PRETTY WELL AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS THE LONGEST AND WILL BE THE LATEST TO
TURN TO THE WEST WINDS AND SHOULD BE THE COOLEST. THE FAR SOUTHEAST
WILL BE THE WARMEST WHERE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW.

DURING THE EVENING THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES INTO
THE AREA ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT
AND CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION THERE IS
COLD ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
THE 20S FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL DETERMINING TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST AS WE WILL BE WITHIN NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A MEAN TROUGH TO THE
EAST. HE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
CWA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WARMER 40S...MAYBE TOUCHING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. WENT WITH
BCCONSALL FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...AS THIS TENDS TO BE A PREFERENCE OF
MINE FOR HIGHS THE FOLLOWING DAY AFTER SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION...ALBEIT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. FRIDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY DURING THE DAY.

A SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL TAKE AIM PRIMARILY TO
THE EAST HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL BE ESSENTIALLY SIDESWIPED BY COLD AIR AS WE ARE
WELL WEST OF THE MAIN THRUST OF COLD AIR. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE
QUITE COOL AND I WENT WITH CONSRAW...GOING COLDER THAN ADVERTISED BY
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION AS THIS LEANED A BIT TOO MUCH ON
CLIMATOLOGY...AS AVERAGE HIGHS ARE NEAR 40. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
SOME STRATUS...AND WITH THE STRONG 1040+ MB HIGH SETTLING INTO THE
PLAINS...THIS IS ENOUGH FOR ME TO ADD IN SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE DRY AIR IN MID-
LEVELS AND I AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL...BUT THIS SIGNAL IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR ME TO PUT THIS
IN THE FORECAST SO FAR OUT THERE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGHS MIGHT NOT EVEN BREAK THE TEENS IN OUR NORTHEAST...GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW COVER AND SKY COVER.

FINALLY A WARM-UP BEGINNING SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY
FOCUSES FARTHER EAST AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DISPLAY RIDGING OR
QUASI-ZONAL NATURE. WE COULD EASILY REACH 50S FOR HIGHS FOR AT LEAST
A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK AND SOME MORNINGS MAY HAVE LOWS IN THE
30S/40S...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING AND BEYOND...WHERE I WENT WITH
CONSRAW FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB



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