Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250555
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1255 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS ROUGHLY ORIENTED ALONG THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DUE TO THE LACK OF
FORCING FROM EITHER THE FRONT OR ANY PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...THE CAP HAS BEEN ABLE TO HOLD AND ONLY SOME
ELEVATED ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED THUS FAR. THAT SAID...AS OF 330
PM...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF THE CAP BEGINNING TO BREAK IN SPOTS
ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE RADAR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS ONCE STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO MATURE RAPIDLY DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE.

WITH ALL THIS INSTABILITY IN PLACE...ONCE STORMS DO FIRE
UP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS...HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO EVENTUALLY BECOME A CONCERN...ALBEIT ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS IN MOST SPOTS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

WHILE ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE BY LATE
EVENING...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AS ACTIVITY ROTATING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RIDE OVER TOP THE FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
STALLED OUT NEAR THE NE/KS STATE LINE.

WITH THIS FRONT THEN NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. WITH THIS CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO POSSIBLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 80S...ALBEIT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB QUICKLY IF WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT FOR A FEW HOURS.
AS A RESULT...SIDED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN PART DUE
TO ONLY A MODEST DROP IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THAT WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST. EVEN WITH THE
RIDGE...THERE ARE A FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE RIDGE AND THROUGH THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE A WEAK FRONT SOMEWHERE OVER KANSAS
AND THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES FURTHER SOUTH AND THE UPPER WAVE FURTHER NORTH...THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL START TO MOVE TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FAR EAST. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ON SUNDAY WILL
KEEP THE AFTERNOON DRY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THAN THE ECMWF. MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE
QPF ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE ECMWF IS DRY. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
WEEK. A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE...BUT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH BUT THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT...IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND
NORTHWEST FLOW IS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY WITH THESE WEAK
WAVES AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR NOW IN THE KGRI AND KEAR AREA.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT A MORNING
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...BUT COULD ALSO BE VARIABLE OUT OF
OTHER DIRECTIONS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY



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