Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 110517

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1217 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Updated the forecast to cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watch and
slash chance of precipitation tonight. It appears that most of the
convection has slipped south and east, but since the mid-level
trough has not passed yet, still reluctant to completely remove
chances for later tonight. Any support for severe weather has
passed, however.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

The pattern aloft continued to feature a northwest flow regime
across the Central Plains with an upper trough in the southern
Great Lakes region, an upper ridge in the Pacific northwest and
closed low undercutting the ridge in northern California. An
embedded shortwave trough translating southeast through the flow
along the high plains has generated convection across western
Nebraska and Kansas this morning and this activity reached south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas this afternoon.

At the surface, a cold frontal boundary was advancing south from
southern Nebraska and the boundary is expected to slowly progress
south into central/southern Kansas heading into tonight. While the
main focus for severe storms is concentrated to our west and south
near the surface low and across much of Kansas as the front works
south, cannot rule out the potential for a period of strong to
severe storm across portions of north central Kansas as the front
works south, and a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for
Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell Counties until 9 PM. The primary
hazards from the storms will be large hail/damaging winds with
instability 1000-2000 j/kg and shear around 30kts.

There is some concern for fog to develop tonight due to recent rain
and a cooler post frontal airmass, but this may be offset by the
drier air/lower dewpoints advecting in overnight. SREF vsby
probabilities are low for dense fog however some MOS guidance
support the development. In the end, confidence is not high enough
to include in the forecast and will have later shifts monitor trends.

The forecast dries out Friday behind the departing wave and surface
high pressure settles in for much of the day. Warm air begins to
spread east of the Rockies in the afternoon and overall highs should
be near or just above 80 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Over the weekend, southerly lowlevel flow increases Saturday in
advance of a closed upper low pressure system translating
southeast through the Dakotas. Decent chances for showers and
thunderstorms return Saturday and Saturday night and the potential
exists for strong to severe storms, with the main instability
axis currently progged to align across our western zones and west.
Details of this will be refined as we get closer.

The brunt of the precipitation should depart Saturday night, but
cannot completely rule out the chance for showers/storms Sunday with
the upper low pressure system in the vicinity.

Weak ridging migrates across the plains on Monday, then the pattern
next week is trending to a progressive, fairly zonal regime with
intermittent chances for showers and storms with a series of
disturbances moving through. Temperatures look to be fairly
similar to what we`ve been experiencing lately with highs upper
70s to the lower 80s through the middle of the week, then warmer
air looks to move in towards the Thursday/Friday time frame.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period with light winds as
a weak pressure gradient remains in place across the region.




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