Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250545
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1245 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THIS SERVES AS A FIRST AND PROBABLY FINAL DRAFT FOR THIS SHIFT. WE
WILL BE MONITORING RADAR/SAT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM THIS
POINT ON. GOES E WILL BEGIN RAPID SCAN AT 1815Z.

PLEASE MONITOR SPC MESO DISCUSSIONS AND ANY WATCHES/STATEMENTS/
WARNINGS FROM THIS OFFICE.

ALOFT: THE UPR LOW ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER WILL HEAD SLOWLY ENE
TONIGHT AND INTO MN TOMORROW. HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL OVER TAKE THE CNTRL PLAINS TOMORROW...AS THE FIRST LOW
LIFTS NE AND ANOTHER RAPIDLY FORMS OVER NV/UT. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS (130 M) WILL OCCUR OVER THE SW USA TONIGHT.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS OVER SD WITH A DRY TROF EXTENDING S THRU
THE FCST AREA. THIS TROF WILL CONT E AND EXIT THE FCST AREA BY
00Z. THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT WAS WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND WILL BE ENTERING THE NEB PANHANDLE
SHORTLY. THIS FRONT WILL RACE E...REACHING LXN/ODX BY 01Z AND
CLEARING THE ERN BORDER OF THE FCST AREA BY 06Z.

THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT HEADS E ACROSS MN INTO WI.
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ORIENTED FROM W-E ACROSS KS
BY TOMORROW WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING OVER CO. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THREATENING WX TUE.

REST OF THIS AFTN: WE`RE IN MONITORING MODE. HEATING IS BEING
INHIBITED BY INCREASING CLOUDS INDUCE BY LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ALOFT. BREAKS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH HEATING TO
INITIATE A FEW STORMS E OF HWY 281 AFTER 2 PM.

STRENGTH/DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR PROFILE WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
CONVECTIVE MODE BEFORE STORMS QUICKLY EXIT INTO ERN NEB/KS.

CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE NNE AT 40-45 KTS.

SPOTTERS/SKYWARN: MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL. PLEASE RELAY ALL
REPORTS OF HAIL/WIND DMG.

SVR TSTM THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 6 PM. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SHWR/TSTM OR TWO SNEAK INTO S-CNTRL NEB N OF HWY 92 IN THE COOLER
AIR/WEAK INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. NONE
OF THESE WILL BE STRONG. PURELY A LTG THREAT.

GRADUAL CLEARING FROM W-E.

TONIGHT: ANY EVENING SHWRS DISSIPATE. MID-LVL WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THRU FROM W-E WITH A CLEARING TREND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AS TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

MON: SUNNY AND DRY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

A FAIRLY ACTIVE STRING OF DAYS APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE
REGION AS MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ACTING AS TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...FOCUSING ON
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WITH
SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN FORECAST MODELS...AS WELL AS 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES APPROACHING 30 KTS...GOLF BALL OR LARGER HAIL ALONG WITH
WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...MOST OF
THE LOCAL AREA IS IN A SLIGHT OR ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...AND WE
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEVERE POTENTIAL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BEYOND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS CAPE VALUES DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE RESPONSIBLE
SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER EAST...EXPECT A COOLER AND DRY AIRMASS TO
SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST...BRINING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE A LOT CAN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AT
THIS TIME...THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS APPEARS MORE STABLE AND MORE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR ANY OF THESE BECOMING SEVERE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THIS
TIME PERIOD...WITH THE WPC 7-DAY FORECAST AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE
MEANS ALL INDICATIVE OF AROUND 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
COMING WEEK. WHILE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO
FORECASTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ODDS ARE GOOD THAT MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER THE COURSE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AND EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
RELATIVELY CLEAR WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT



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