Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 141744
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Low stratus and fog, dense in many locations along Interstate 80
is sticking around longer than anticipated earlier this morning.
Have issued some significant weather statements for the fog, but
currently am concerned at how long it will stay around. Guidance
continues to indicate conditions will improve from southwest to
northeast...but that has been true for a few hours now, with no
great guidance to go on as of this time. Persistence and tracking
upstream observations for the next few hours seems best, as the
winds turn northwesterly and increase. Conditions have improved
across Dawson county as winds have increased slightly and become
more northwesterly...expecting this trend to continue tracking
eastward.

Due to this low stratus, do not have great confidence we will see
much warming for much of the area throughout the day. Have
decreased temperatures for the day, but this may not have been
enough. Will continue to watch and amend. Now areas along and
south of the clearing line from Concordia, KS to Hays, KS may see
temps increase into the 70s...as is apparent at Ellsworth, KS as
of 17z. But overall, am pessimistic that temps will get very far
with cloud cover lingering this afternoon.

Still expecting winds to turn to the northwest and increase
sharply. Winds at McCook and North Platte have already turned to
the northwest, with gusts to over 30 mph at Sidney at 17z. The
strong winds are on their way.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through
the pre-dawn hours. This appears to be our best shot at rain for
the day as we are already seeing a sharp back edge of the rain
area form. With the front well southeast of the area and the main
upper energy north of the area, the forecast area is left in the
middle with lots of clouds, maybe some passing showers or even
drizzle during the day but no substantial rainfall (after the
ongoing rain). Lowered rain chances a bit during the day as a
result. We could see a brief mix of warmer temperatures just ahead
of advanced cold front later today, and with a mild start in the
50s, have raised temperatures up a bit today.

By mid-late afternoon, previously advertised sharp increase in
windspeeds is on track to move across the forecast area from west-
to-east. Timing is roughly beginning about 20z/3PM in the far
west... and clearing the eastern areas by 00z/7PM. Strong
subsidence, isallobaric component and core of winds will maximize
about by early evening with gusts over 40 mph likely and maybe up
into the 45 mph range. Temperatures will also start to drop as the
winds increase, most noticeably west of a Kearney to Phillipsburg
line. Hourly forecast temperatures reflect this non diurnal
temperature trend. The winds will howl through the evening hours
as skies clear and lows head down to the 30s for many hours.
Frost should be minimal with overnight wind, and with recent
freeze for most of the forecast area no frost headlines are
anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The main story in the long term is dry weather and mild mid-
October temperatures. Broad and transitory ridge/height rises
aloft will keep rain chances at bay, and likely until next
Saturday at the earliest. Though sunny, temperatures will start
coolish Sunday, but the rest of the week is pleasant with highs in
the lower/middle 70s in general, or roughly 5-8 degrees above
normal afternoon high temperatures on average. Lots of sunshine
and low dewpoints. Good harvest weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

LIFR conditions have persisted through the morning hours at both
terminals. Conditions are expected to improve into the afternoon
hours with visibilities increasing as winds turn to the northwest.
Think low clouds will persist until the stronger northwesterly
winds move in later this afternoon/evening, with clearing
thereafter. A sharp increase in winds is expected this
afternoon/evening as northwest winds will be sustained around
30kts with gusts near 40kts. Winds will decrease overnight and
become westerly during the day Sunday with mostly clear skies.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Billings Wright
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
LONG TERM...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...Billings Wright



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