Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 080628
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1228 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Today was not much of a surprise, although we did not quite top
off quite as high as predicted, falling a couple degrees short.

A trough is on its way tonight and during the overnight, we could
get a skiff of snow as it passes through. I even threw in a 20 POP
in for liquid accumulation, although any snow amounts will be
nearly negligible. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer tonight
with increased sky cover, with lows generally around 20.

Wind speeds will kick up a bit stronger than models are indicating
and went closer to CONSMOS, and even kicked it up a couple more
miles an hour. Lowered temps a couple degrees for highs Friday,
considering we didn`t quite realize our temps today.

Friday may wind up feeling colder than today, despite technically
warmer temperatures, as wind gusts will probably be in the 20-30
mph range with our highs near 40 to the mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Northwest flow for the long term, and still anticipating a warmup
for the weekend with 50s for most of us for highs Sunday. Mainly a
dry forecast, except for a slight POP for rain in our northeast
with a passing wave within north/northwest flow. Generally, our
temperatures will be a bit above normal for the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1228 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

General overview:
Confidence is high in VFR visibility and precipitation-free
conditions through the period (except for the slightest chance of
some rogue flurries these first 6 hours) and confidence is high in
VFR ceiling the majority of the period, with the main exception
being MVFR focused during a 5-7 hour period during the day.
Sustained surface winds will average near-to-below 12kt the
majority of the time, except for higher speeds mainly focused
15-23Z. There could also be some marginal low level wind shear
(LLWS) during the final few of the period Friday evening. Read on
for more element-specific detail...

Ceiling:
The biggest questions are how low in the MVFR range does a
ceiling get during the daytime hours and for how long. For now
have gone a touch lower and longer duration at KGRI (BKN020 from
15-22Z) compared to KEAR (BKN025 from 15-20Z), but this is
certainly subject to some adjustment.

Winds (including LLWS):
Surface winds will gradually swing from southwesterly to
northwesterly early this morning, and will then peak in speed from
15-23Z from the north-northwest with sustained speeds generally
15-20kt/gusts up to around 25kt. A brief decrease will occur
around sunset before picking up again slightly in the evening. As
for LLWS, there could be some very marginal values during these
first 6-9 hours, but have deemed this unworthy of a formal
inclusion. A more legitimate period of LLWS looks to begin late in
the period around 02Z, as winds within roughly the lowest 1,500
ft. increase to 40-45kt, setting up roughly 30kt of shear
magnitude between the surface and this level.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Pfannkuch



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