Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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916
FXUS63 KGID 201738
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1138 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Aloft: A ridge extended from Ontario S to the Gulf of MX. A
decent shortwave trof extended from the Neb Panhandle S into W TX.
This trof will cont moving E and cross the fcst area today with a
broad low-amplitude ridge arriving tonight.

Surface: 998 low pres was over the Wrn Dakota`s with a weak cool
front extending S thru the Neb Panhandle to TX. This front will
cross the fcst area Mon morning. A weak sfc ridge will move in
this afternoon/eve but then depart to the E tonight.

Today: M/cldy to start but clearing from W-E as the trof/cool
front move thru. 5-10F cooler than yesterday...but still 25F above
normal.

The low-lvl thermal trof will be overhead at midday. After multi-
layered mid-high clouds depart...should see SCT stratocu develop
with daytime heating.

Breezy NW winds will gust to near 25 kts post-front.

Tonight: Clear with light winds.

Temps at midnight should be in the low 40s. So for the calendar
day (Feb 20)...we are projecting record warm low temps. Records
are listed below.

Low-lvl thermal trof will shift E of the fcst area early this eve
with a pulse of WAA tonight as SW winds advect a plume of warm 850
temps back into the rgn. This will set the stage for another near
record day tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

A warm airmass aided by downslope flow will allow for an
unseasonably warm day on Tuesday with high temperatures at record
or near values in the 70s. Refer to the climate section for
details on the record highs. Along with the warm air comes
favorable conditions for critical fire weather. See the fire
weather section below for the fire weather concerns Tuesday and
Wednesday.

The weather pattern undergoes chances during the latter part of
the workweek with chances for precipitation (rain/snow) returning
and temperatures trend more seasonal for February heading into the
weekend. Cooler air advects south Wednesday night and Thursday
behind an upper midwest clipper system and lift begins to increase
Thursday ahead of a trough moving out of the central Rockies.
Precipitation is expected to develop to our west along the high
plains/sandhills Thursday and spread eastward across our area
Thursday afternoon/night as the upper low tracks east across Neb.
The system will move through quickly and the system track brings
favorable chances for preciptiation especially for south central
Nebraska. Precipitation type initially will be rain in the warm
sector with a transition to snow as cold air is drawn south on the
back side of the low. Gusty north winds will accompany the cold
air Thursday night into Friday, then as the system departs, snow
will end west/east Friday. The potential exists for accumulating
snowfall and amounts will be refined as the system gets closer.

Cooler but seasonal temperatures are forecast over the weekend
and extended models indicate additional chances for preciptiation
Sunday with another system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail.  The main aviation forecast
concern is the wind shift and breezy winds behind the front. The
front is currently...as of this issuance has passed through KEAR
and is on the doorstep of KGRI. Winds are breezy out of the
northwest and are expected to impact the terminals through the
afternoon. Winds will diminish this evening and become light and
variable, eventually turning to the south by morning. Skies will
be mostly clear...but a few mid- level clouds may move through
this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Near critical fire wx is still expected today along the extreme
Wrn fringe of the fcst area...along and W of a line from
Gothenburg, NE to Plainville, KS. Winds will be there for sure but
RH is a little less certain. Regardless...it still warrants a
mention.

A fire weather watch has been issued for Tuesday as the
combination of very warm temperatures in the 70s (at record or
near record highs), dry fuels and gusty winds will lead to
dangerous fire weather conditions. Models are consistent with low
relative humidity values of less than 20 percent across our entire
cwa Tuesday and this is using model blended dewpoints. Mixed
dewpoints and MOS guidance dewpoints are lower than the current
forecast, and even lower RH values are quite possible Tuesday
afternoon. Model forecast soundings indicate mixing above H85 and
winds at the top of the layer are in the 15 to 25kt range
depending on the location and proximity to a surface trough axis.
An upgrade to a red flag warning may be needed if conditions/winds
remain on track.

Wednesday will also be favorable for critical/near critical fire
weather. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly cooler but still
unseasonably warm behind a surface trough/weak cold front
Wednesday. Drier air/low dewpoints will advect in behind the
boundary and low relative humidity values are forecast below 20
percent in the afternoon and post frontal winds will be gusty.
Have opted to take fire headlines one day at a time and have held
off on a fire weather watch for Wednesday in order to get through
Tuesday and mentioned the critical fire weather potential in the
HWO.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1153 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

      Record Warm Low`s
         Mon 2/20
GRI    41 in 1916
HSI    42 in 1930

      Record High`s
        Tue 2/21
GRI    75 in 1995
HSI    73 in 1995

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Billings Wright
FIRE WEATHER...Kelley/Fay
CLIMATE...Kelley/ADP



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