Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 200604
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
104 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

More active weather pattern set to move into the forecast area by
the end of the weekend and throughout next week is the main focus
for the forecast. In the mean time...look for increasing low level
moisture the next few days with climbing dewpoints...forecast to
reach 60 degrees by Saturday. That will bring a humid feel to the
area. Along with incoming moisture...will be the risk for
overnight fog tonight and and again Friday night. Mid level warm
advection...steepening lapse rates and a briefly favorable jet
position should be enough focus for isolated thunderstorms late
Friday night...which will linger through Saturday. While the jet
slides east of the area...the warm/moist advection continues into
Sunday so there is a steady diet of low precipitation chances.

Much better shower/thunderstorm chance sets up Sunday night as a
front tries to move through with a an upper trough moving
northwest of the area...embedded in a developing southwest upper
flow. Actually decent continuity in time and space from run-to-run
of models gives good confidence in timing of later Sunday night
and very early Monday morning. Coverage looks widespread with
good instability and strong low level jet feeding into the system.
Potential for a decent rain making MCS...possibly with some strong
to isolated severe storms. The timing is a bit of drawback though
for a lot of severe weather.

Another period of concern is Tuesday afternoon/evening...with lee
cyclogenisis developing and forming a warm front near I-70. This
is worth watching as the time nears for its thunderstorm potential
and even severe storm potential.

In general...temperatures should be on a slow incline given the
moisture increase and warm advection...but there will still
periods clouds holding temperatures back at times. However...we
still should be in the normal range at least for high temperatures
if not above.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Ceilings will soon lower as the stratus moves in, lower in KEAR
first. Visibility is a dice roll as lower visibility does not seem
to be appearing right away with the introduction of stratus, so I
went a little easier on any visibility reduction in this forecast.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MORITZ
AVIATION...Heinlein



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