Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 070400

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1000 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Issued at 948 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Forecast is still on track for a primarily light snowfall event
across southern portions of our forecast area. The 00z NAM
keeps any accumulating snow over KS while the 02z HRRR depicts
several little bands of snow that could reach farther north up to
around Lexington and Hastings. Then we have the 00z GFS with it`s
focus of light snow right around the KS/NE border around day break
and then the focus slips south into northern Kansas by mid to late
morning. Nothing is showing a big snow event. Can not rule out a
local 3 inches on the high end somewhere over our southern zones
in a localized heavier band. However, it is more likely to see
most areas with very little if any snow at all especially to the
north of Hastings and Kearney. Main thing to watch for will be
that possibility of frontogenetical snow bands reaching a little
further north towards Hastings if the HRRR is right, but more than
anything just seeing where these bands set up.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

The main forecast concern during this period is the snowfall
forecast for tonight and tomorrow.

The latest guidance has been relatively consistent, showing
relatively small changes to the overall snow forecast for tonight.
Snow totals were reduced during the day yesterday and held steady
with this morning`s forecast. The latest higher-res model
solutions show the main corridor for accumulating snowfall of an
inch to two inches in north central Kansas and in the Nebraska
counties nearest the Kansas border. Elsewhere, including the tri-
cities, some light snow with small accumulations are possible.
However, this system could have a sharp cut off from snow to no
accumulation across south central Nebraska.

As for timing, the chances for snowfall will steadily increase
after midnight, moving from west to east across the area...mainly
along and south of the Kansas/Nebraska border. The majority of
snowfall accumulation is expected Wednesday morning between 6am
and noon, tapering off to the south into eastern Kansas by
Wednesday afternoon.

Temperatures will be cold, highs will struggle to get into the low
to mid 20s during the afternoon. Winds will be northerly between
10-20 mph...keeping wind chill values in the single digits and
teens through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

While snow was the big concern in the short term, the cold is
overall the main concern of the forecast.

Cold arctic air will continue to plague the region through at
least the end of the work week. While it will be cold and well
below normal Thursday and slightly colder Friday morning, the
northerly winds Thursday morning will make wind chill temperatures
dangerously cold. Wind chill values Thursday morning will be
between -10 and -15 degrees. Be prepared to bundle up and avoid
spending long periods of time outside early Thursday. Friday
morning will also be cold, but with the upper ridge moving
overhead, winds will be light and the wind chill values are not
expected to be quite as low as on Thursday morning. Highs on
Thursday will be in the teens and low 20s, and Friday will be
slightly warmer with highs in the 20s. Lows both Thursday and
Friday morning will be in the single digits across the area.

Northwesterly flow will continue through much of the remainder of
the forecast. The next system will approach the area Saturday, but
the cool dry air in place will keep the better chances for
precipitation east of the area. That being said, due to
discrepancies, there are some small chances Saturday night into
Sunday over the north. Watch this forecast period as it evolves
through the rest of the week. Temperatures will be briefly warmer
on Saturday, in the 30s and low 40s before the cold air with this
system moves back in. Highs on Sunday look to be in the 20s and

As we move into next week, the cold doesn`t seem to stop. After
surface high pressure moves overhead Sunday night into Monday, the
next front dives southward...bringing another cold shot of air to
the region. Currently the guidance indicates that the front will
move through late Monday could be more moderate with
highs in the 30s and low 40s, but Tuesday could be colder. Current
forecast for Tuesday shows temps slightly colder than Monday, but
if the GFS/EC pan out...highs could be back in the teens for mid
next week. Stay tuned as this is 7 days out and it will change.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

The primary concern will be whether or not the snow will fall as
far north as KEAR and KGRI and if it does will it even amount to

The chance of snow at KGRI is currently no higher than
30 percent at any point through the next 24hrs. Therefore, will be
leaving snow out of the TAF, but that doesn`t mean we can`t see a
little very light snow at KGRI. KEAR does have a little higher
chance of seeing some very light snow accumulations maxing out at
50 percent Wednesday morning. Therefore have included snow in the
KEAR TAF, but at this point amounts look closer to a dusting
Wednesday morning, although a half of an inch is not out of the
realm of possibilities. Any light snow or flurries will have
passed south by Wednesday afternoon. VFR ceilings and visibility
are currently expected throughout the TAF valid period.




SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Wesely is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.