Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 281121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
621 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Once again, we will be starting the day with areas of fog, and
have gone ahead and issued a dense fog advisory for the entire
area. That said, there is some uncertainty in the coverage of the
dense fog as high clouds will be increasing from the west and
wind speeds are slightly higher than we saw yesterday. Expect
visibility to be variable, with several locations seeing
visibility dip to around 1/4 mile.

Chances for showers enter far western portions of the area this
morning, but expect more dry time than wet for the majority of the
area today. Precipitation becomes likely late this afternoon into
the overnight as the low-levels become saturated.

Rain will continue through tonight as the mid-level low slowly
tracks across New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. It appears that
the heaviest precipitation tonight will be across Kansas and far
southern Nebraska. I wouldn`t be surprised if some places pick up an
inch or more through Wednesday morning in those areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Rain will be the focus for the middle of the workweek and again
heading into the weekend. Starting on Wednesday, rain is expected to
be ongoing across our region as an upper low pressure system crosses
the central and southern plains. The precipitation is expected to
widespread with the brunt of the rain falling from Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Precipitable water values average three
quarters of an inch throughout this event and decent rainfall totals
are forecast with amounts of one half inch to over an inch possible.
Instability parameters are not overly impressive, but they are not
zero either and have mentioned some isolated thunder for our
southeast zones Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The upper low pressure system departs Thursday with the precipitation
ending west to east, with ECMWF quicker moving the system out
compared to other models. Conditions dry out through Friday in
height rises and shortwave ridging in between systems. Precipitation
chances return Friday night and into the first part of the weekend
ahead of another upper low pressure system in the south central
Rockies. The extended models begin to diverge more so heading into
Sunday on the track of this next system, so there is uncertainty on
whether or not Sunday will remain dry and details of this will be
resolved with time. The model differences carry into the first part
of next week and did not deviate from ensembles with additional rain
chances on Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Fog currently affecting both TAF sites will continue to be
variable, so included a TEMPO group through 15Z to account for the
fluctuations in visibility.

Conditions will briefly improve as fog mixes out by mid morning
today, then rain showers and MVFR cloud cover will gradually move
into the area. Models are indicating that coverage will be pretty
limited for most of the day, so I left out VCSH until afternoon.

The most widespread rain and low ceilings will move in this
evening and overnight.


NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-



SHORT TERM...Mangels
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