Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 282053
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
353 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...A Significant Wet/Windy Storm System will Cont Periodically
Affecting the Fcst Area thru the Weekend with Potential for
Accumulating Snow...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Aloft: A longwave trof was over the cntrl/Wrn USA. A small mid-
lvl low was along the Neb/IA border and it will cont to lift N
and weaken. The larger main upr circulation was over UT/CO.
Upstream amplification was occurring and this was resulting in
additional height falls over the Desert SW. The low will drop
into AZ/NM tonight and head E across NM tomorrow. 12-hr height
falls (00Z-12Z) at FGZ were 160 m.

Surface: A continental polar air mass encompassed the Nrn 2/3 of
the CONUS with the polar front extending from New Eng thru the
Gulf Coast States to TX. Low pres was forming along the front over
NM. Another cold front extended from MI-IL-cntrl KS with a weak
low over Ern KS. This low will dissipate and the associated front
will sink S and merge with the polar front...strengthening the
temp gradient along it...as the NM low ejects NE along it and
conts to organize thru tomorrow.

Precip conts to decrease N of I-80 and should be completely gone
by 23Z. It took longer to dissipate than expected.

Tonight: Cldy with steady temps and decreasing winds. A
significant area of rain should develop along the KS/OK border in
the RRQ of a 120 kt upr-lvl jet streak. The Nrn fringe of this
rain should lift to the KS-Neb state line toward dawn. It cold be
cold enough for rain to mix with or change to snow over S-cntrl
Neb. But most of S-cntrl Neb should see little or no precip.

Sat: Cldy...windy...and contd unseasonably cold. Periods of rain
gradually lifting/expanding N. If any snow is falling during the
AM it will change to rain. Temps will struggle to get into the low
40s.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Aloft: The upr low will be over Ern NM at 00Z/Sun...embedded
within the based of the trof in a highly amplified longwave
pattern. The last 2 runs of deterministic models and GFS ensemble
members are tightly clustered on this low lifting NE across the TX
Panhandle and Wrn OK Sat night into Sun and arriving over Ern KS
by 00Z/Mon. This is a very favorable track for substantial pcpn
over our fcst area (FA). The low is then fcst to cross MCI into
IA by 12Z/Mon and cont lifting NNE. NW flow will follow the rest
of next wk with progressive longwaves. There will be some
minor/weak shortwave trofs finished with a more substantial trof
passage Wed. Then significant height rises will occur as a high-
amplitude Wrn USA ridge makes its way over the Plns Fri.

Surface: Deepening low pres will occlude over KS Sun and then head
across IA to WI Mon. A weak low will dive SE thru the FA Tue
followed by another missing just NE of the FA Thu. Then high pres
builds in.

Temps: much colder than normal Sun and Mon. Mon could be colder
than we`re indicating if a swath of snow is pasted across part of
the FA. Then returning to near normal the rest of the week. Fri
currently looks decent...but could be cooler than we are currently
indicating.

Precip: A very wet system will be in progress Sun and end by dawn
Mon. There are a couple minor/light precip possibilities until Wed
eve...but they will pale in comparison to this weekend.

Periods of rain will cont Sat night thru Sun night...but there is
potential for rain to mix with and/or change to snow...possibly
moreso than we currently have depicted in the fcst. We are
especially concerned about Sun afternoon-eve when the deformation
zone pivots over the FA. Precip will probably fall as snow for
much of the day Sun into Sun night. Accumulating snow late in the
spring or fall (when leaves are on the trees) is bad news.

We saw how easy this cold air mass produced snow today...
especially along and N of I-80.


WATCH REASONING: Ordinarily we have warning or near-warning-lvl
snowfall in the fcst when we issue a Winter Stm Watch (WSW). That
is 6" in 12 hrs or 8" in 24 hrs. Parts of this watch area do not
have 6". However...we have the discretion to issue based on
impacts (or potential impacts).

We remain very concerned about the potential for hvy wet snow
mainly Sun afternoon into Sun eve. There are mitigating factors
(warm ground etc). If it difficult for snow to accumulation
during the day at this time of year. This very well may up mostly
melting on contact...but just in case it doesn`t...we don`t want
people to be caught unaware.

Svrl inches of hvy/wet snow with so much foliage on the trees
would be devastating with widespread damage and power outages
where trees exist. Much of the greatest tree coverage is in towns
and cities.

It is entirely possible the accum does not pan out (which would
be very good) and that much of it will melt on contact. If this
occurs...this will not be a busted fcst. WSW`s only need 50%
confidence. We`ve issued this to highlight the "potential" for
what would be damaging accumulations of snow.

In the end...for this fcstr...the cost of not issuing and a major
snowfall occurring is just too great.

Please cont to closely monitor the fcst this weekend.

One other potential for hazard wx is high winds Sun. Even if we
don`t issue a Winter Wx Advisory or a Winter Storm Warning...we
might need a High Wind Warning for part or most of the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Significant Wx: IFR conds will remain into this eve.

This Afternoon: IFR conds will remain thru the afternoon with
RA/SN transitioning to DZ which will eventually end. NE winds
15-30 kts and gusty. Confidence: High

Tonight: IFR CIGs should eventually lift to MVFR based on model
fcsts with winds diminishing to 10-15 kts. Confidence: Medium

Sat thru 18Z: MVFR CIGs with possible decay to IFR as -RA moves in
from the S. NNE winds increase 15-30 kts and gusty. Confidence:
Medium

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday
     night for NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072>074-082>084.

KS...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday
     night for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Kelley



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