Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 300807
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
307 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY


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