Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 221718
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1118 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Stratocu is working its way down the Hwy 81 corridor as expected
within the colder air to the E. Temps are substantially colder
than yesterday at this time especially E of Hwy 281 over Neb.

No signif adjustments needed to the fcst...just minor tweaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Aloft: A large trof was over the MS Vly with a ridge over the
Rockies and a new trof moving onshore in the W. As the Wrn trof
moves further inland the ridge will progress E. Heights were
already rising over the Cntrl Plns and will cont to rise until the
ridge crests over the region tomorrow.

Surface: Very weak high pres extended from MT-NM. It will emerge
onto the Plains and drift E of the region tonight. Lee
cyclogenesis will commence tomorrow over CO.

Tonight: Clearing this eve with light NW winds becoming calm or
lgt/vrbl. Then increasing clouds toward dawn.

Mon: P-m/cloudy with multi-layered mid-high clouds. Another mild
day with temps 10-15F above normal. Becoming brzy W of Hwy 281.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Aloft: The deep Wrn trof will cont E with a new low forming over
Neb Tue as self-development conts. As this low heads toward the
GtLakes Tue night...a broad trof will remain behind over the Plns.
An embedded shortwave trof will move thru Thu...followed by the
main trof E-W oriented trof axis dropping thru Fri. By Fri a Wrn
ridge/Ern trof will have evolved with N-NNW flow overhead Sat-Sun.

The 00Z EC/GFS ensemble means both have the 500 mb low over Ern
Neb at 00Z/Wed. The CMC ensemble is 12 hrs slower...where CO/KS/NE
borders meet.

Surface: The new CO low will eject into Wrn KS by 12Z/Tue and
head ENE into xtrm NW MO by 00Z/Wed. Canadian high pres will drop
S and build over the region Wed afternoon. This high will cont
into the Srn Plns Thu as another a cold front drops into the Nrn
Plns and arrives here Thu night. Fri-Sun there is some
uncertainty...but the basic gist is Wrn USA high pres expands over
the Plns and it looks like a Clipper will spread downslope-warmed
air into the region.

Some Sensible Wx Details...

Much more later...but here is our initial take. The 12Z CMC/GFS/
NAM are in. Still awaiting the EC and UKMET.

Track: evaluating all of the available 00Z/06Z/12Z runs of the
EC/GFS/NAM/CMC/UKMET...the 00Z EC is centered right in the middle
of the guidance spread envelope and is in agreement with its own
ensemble mean as well as the GFS ensemble mean. The CMC runs cont
on the slow side of the spread...the GFS and NAM runs on the fast
and N side. The NAM has come further N vs yesterday though.

I`m not liking the look of the NAM at 500 mb. It doesn`t its low
over Neb.

Office collaboration has already started and the consensus is
leaning toward the 00Z EC which dumps 0.25" QPF down to the
Neb/KS stateline and 0.5" down to Neb Hwy 92.

If the 12Z EC comes in with similar QPF...we may be issuing a
watch for some Neb counties along or N of I-80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Significant Wx: None

This Afternoon: VFR. A few stratocu will probably develop around
2K ft at or near GRI. Otherwise just SCT 25K ft cirrus/
cirrostratus. NW winds 11-16 kts. Confidence: High

Tonight: VFR SKC. Lgt NW winds become lgt/vrbl or even calm at
times. Confidence: High

Mon thru 18Z: VFR with multi-layered mid-high clouds at or abv 10K
ft. Lgt/vrbl winds become SE and increase to 8-12 kts. Confidence:
High

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 454 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Here are some notes regarding SEASON-TO-DATE SNOWFALL at Grand
Island airport (our primary long term data site for which we issue
records/statistics for)...

- While this winter has certainly not lacked precipitation
(solidly above normal), somewhat oddly, the vast majority of it
has fallen in the form of rain/freezing rain and NOT snow.

- So far this winter, Grand Island has only measured 3.5" of snow
(9.9" below normal). The last time Grand Island had less snow
through Jan. 22 was 15 years ago in 2002 (2.7"). Although what
happened the remainder of that winter is NOT INDICATIVE of what
will occur the rest of this winter, that winter of 2001-2002
actually ended up with near-normal snowfall of 26.7". In other
words, there is still plenty of time to pile up snow this winter
despite the slow start!

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Kelley
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch



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