Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 050536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER RIDGING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION. ALOFT
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH UPPER
LOWS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH RIDGING
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL
REMAIN QUIET WEATHERWISE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MILD/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS EASTERN
NEB/KS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AND BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY WITH WINDS
TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY. EVEN WARMER HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY AS THE AIRMASS WARMS ROUGHLY 3C AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD AND HIGHS SHLD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN COMES LATER IN THE PERIOD AS PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

STARTING OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BIG PICTURE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE
MIDDLE CENTER OF THE CONUS WITH THE AXIS CENTERED FROM THE MT/NDAK
BORDER TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL BE BOUNDED BY A COUPLE
OF CLOSED LOWS...ONE AROUND THE TENN VALLEY AND THE OTHER JUST
MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST TOWARDS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

THESE FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL NE/KS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THUS
WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS
UP...BUT THE QUESTION BECOMES WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ENDS UP
WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT ACROSS OUR CWA AND OTHERS HAVE IT
FURTHER NORTH. BY SATURDAY UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER TO THE CWA AND MAY
END UP WITH A LEADING EDGE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE CWA...BEGINNING
IN THE WEST. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE SAT EVENING/NIGHT
WITH LOW LEVEL JET ONCE AGAIN COMING INTO PLAY.

MODELS NOT COMING TOGETHER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW FOR SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL EC FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. LATEST GFS
HAS THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY NOON SUNDAY WITH
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. SO WHILE WE MAY GET
ADDITIONAL RAIN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WOULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT.  THE 00Z
RUN OF THE EC HAD THE SURFACE AND 500 MB FEATURES ABOUT 350 MILES TO
THE NORTH OF THE GFS TRACKS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
PANS OUT AS THE EC DOES GIVE AT LEAST PART OF OUR CWA A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE EC WAS
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z SO INSTEAD OF CONVERGING...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF THE EC AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT SINCE THE LATEST RUN.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE GFS MEANDERS THE 500 MB LOW THROUGH THE
AREA...ONLY MOVING IT TO NEAR NEBRASKA CITY BY NOON TUESDAY. THUS
THE DAMP WEATHER WOULD CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND PART OF TUESDAY. THE
EC IS SIMILAR IN MOVING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT WITH DIFFERENT
POSITIONING. PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WET TO START THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

LIKELY ONE OF THE TOP-10 "QUIETEST" TAFS OF THIS FORECASTER`S
CAREER...EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING (NEARLY 100
PERCENT CLEAR SKIES) AND MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
VISIBILITY...WITH SEEMINGLY ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
HAZE/FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. AS FOR WINDS...STARTING OUT VERY
LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER
THE AREA...THEN ONLY MODESTLY PICKING UP TO AROUND 10KT FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH


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