Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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207
FXUS63 KICT 230330
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1030 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Tonight - Monday:

Official forecast does not reflect anticipated precipitation
chances due to concensus constraints this period. Anticipating
that high plains convection will slowly dwindle as it approaches
the area in absence of upper forcing. Thinking that isolated-
scattered elevated convection is also possible over Flint
Hills/Southeast KS along edge of better moisture very late
tonight and early on Monday, which might be aided by remnants of
high plains convection. But believe model QPF is way overdone on
Monday. Think chances for precipitation after 1800 UTC Monday are
slim to none, except in far west near 0000 UTC in proximity to
dryline. Proximity of dryline and soupy airmass will likely lead
to severe storms that could extend as far east as i-35 Monday
night, but more likely just in the western counties. Temperatures
on Monday problematic with much riding on amount of clouds/convective
debris.

Tuesday-Wednesday night:
Periodic chances for convection and low clouds will persist
throughout the period. Best chances will be with ripples in upper
flow to enhance longevity as storms move off dryline.
Unfortunately ripples appear to be quite weak, so timing is
suspect from models. Further complicating forecast is models
remain inconsist with dryline location. Situation is further
complicated by potential outflows or boundaries that could aid
and/or suppress convection on what otherwise appears to be a
favorable time/location. That said, the latest models would favor
stronger storms in the area on Tuesday with ripple in upper flow
and Wednesday with surge on dryline. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Medium range models are in decent agreement with upper pattern
through Friday, but diverge with timing/strength of shortwave by
Saturday. Unfortunately the surface dryline/front position remains
nebulous at best. This leads to a continued unsettled and
potentially stormy period. Will have at least small chances
throughout the period at most locations, but will likely have some
dry periods somewhere in the mix. Maxes will depend a lot on
amount and timing of convective debris. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

MVFR CIGS are expected generally west of the Kansas turnpike
early Monday morning. The south to southeast winds will remain
occasionally gusty over central Kansas early in the night before
decreasing a bit toward sunrise. Widely scattered early morning
convection is possible, initially developing or moving into the
I-135 corridor, and then moving east-southeast into parts of
southeast Kansas later in the morning. MVFR CIGS are expected
to lift to VFR by midday across the area with slight increase
in the gusty south winds. After any lingering morning elevated
convection, chances for renewed surface based storms will be
most probable west of the I-135 corridor by late afternoon or
evening. Some of this activity could be locally strong and severe.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  79  67  83 /  20  30  30  30
Hutchinson      66  80  66  83 /  20  30  40  30
Newton          67  78  67  82 /  30  40  40  30
ElDorado        67  77  67  81 /  30  40  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   68  79  68  82 /  20  20  30  30
Russell         66  81  63  83 /  20  20  40  30
Great Bend      67  81  63  84 /  20  20  40  30
Salina          68  80  65  82 /  30  40  40  30
McPherson       67  79  65  82 /  30  30  40  30
Coffeyville     64  79  66  80 /  20  20  30  30
Chanute         64  78  66  81 /  20  30  30  20
Iola            64  78  66  81 /  30  30  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    64  78  66  80 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...KED



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