Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181744
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Elevated moisture transport on a modest low level jet will nose
into central Kansas toward 12z resulting in an area of weak to
modest instability. The latest RAP/HRRR develop some convection
eastward along the I-70 corridor and latest radar showed some
weak echoes west of Hays just after 08z. So current small PoP
looks reasonable across central Kansas this morning. A small
chance for elevated convection will be maintained tonight mainly
north of I-70, as the surface front which sags south into far
northern Kansas late today, begins to migrate north as a warm
front overnight. Otherwise, a more significant chance for deep
convection will arrive late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night, as a more vigorous upper trof moves east across the
northern/central Plains. The increased westerly flow aloft will
result in stronger deep layer shear as a cold front overtakes the
dry-line across central Kansas. Despite initial capping in place
during the early afternoon on Wednesday, the convergence along
the front looks more than adequate to initiate/sustain convection
by Wednesday evening as it moves southeast across the forecast
area. MLCAPE values early on in excess of 2000 J/KG and bulk shear
values at or above 40kts will promote organized severe convection
with supercell structures possible with a large hail risk, though
something more linear is expected as the evening progresses with
more of a damaging wind risk. A much cooler, near seasonable
airmass will advect south across Kansas on Thursday behind the
mid-week cold front with lingering precip chances diminishing
across southeast Kansas during the day.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

A closed upper low is still progged to evolve across the central
High Plains on Friday with the deepening tropospheric low moving
east across Kansas and into Missouri through Saturday. Modest to
strong moisture transport in the isentropic lift regime ahead of
the upper low will get the rainy and occasionally stormy pattern
going on Friday. While the more unstable surface warm sector
should remain just south of Kansas, the stronger winds and
diffluent flow aloft Friday afternoon and evening will overspread
southeast Kansas where modest elevated instability should be
present. So besides locally heavy rainfall, a few strong storms
will also be possible. As the system begins to pull away later on
Saturday, much of the area looks to be affected by the wrap-
around precip and perhaps the southern edge of the trailing upper
deformation zone. For now a dry and general moderating trend in
temperatures seem reasonable into early next week.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Aviation concern will be some wind shear tonight.

Storms over Nebraska pushed a cold front into north central KS
with this boundary expected to lift north this afternoon. VFR
conditions are expected to remain in place through this TAF
period. Winds just off of the surface are expected to increase
after dark across most of the area with speeds around 40kts at
2,000ft from the southwest. Wind shear is expected to decrease
shortly after sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    78  61  81  53 /  10  10  10  50
Hutchinson      79  61  82  51 /  10  10  10  50
Newton          77  60  80  50 /  10  10  10  50
ElDorado        79  61  82  53 /  10  10  10  50
Winfield-KWLD   79  62  82  56 /  10  10   0  50
Russell         79  60  84  46 /  10  20  10  20
Great Bend      79  60  84  47 /  10  10  10  20
Salina          80  63  83  49 /  10  20  20  40
McPherson       79  61  81  50 /  10  10  10  50
Coffeyville     79  61  82  59 /  10  10   0  40
Chanute         78  61  81  56 /  10  10   0  40
Iola            78  61  81  56 /  10  10   0  40
Parsons-KPPF    79  61  81  57 /  10  10   0  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...RBL



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