Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
036
FXUS63 KICT 090845
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
245 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT...THE
STOUT WINDS YESTERDAY WILL SLACKEN SOME TODAY...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL
SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. BUT
NOTICABLY LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY.

EXPECT BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR WED AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH
IN THE NW FLOW.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 50S.  COULD
EVEN SEE SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S
AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SW. FAVORABLE THINKNESS
VALUES SUGGEST BUMPING UP MAX TEMPS SOME IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS GIVNE
THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

EXPECT A ROLLERCOASTER RIDE...AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED FOR
THU THROUGH SAT. THE NEXT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THU....WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MIDDLE 40S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

EXPECT ANOTHER MODERATING TEMP DAY ON FRI...AS THE NW FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SAT INTO SUN. MOST OF THE COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE PLAINS...BUT
ENOUGH OF THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TO PUSH TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL OR EVEN A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A COLDER
SOLUTION THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK BY ANY MEANS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE NW FLOW PATTERN BREAKING
DOWN SOME FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROPS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE LIMITING ANY KIND OF PRECIP CHANCE TO AREAS EAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE.  SOME QUESTION ON PRECIP TYPE...AS THE MODELS ARENT
HANDLING THE SHALLOW COLD AIR FROM SAT VERY WELL. FOR NOW WILL
MENTIONS OF WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT WITH THAT SAID PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. THESE
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT HOW STRONG WINDS WILL GET THIS
AFTERNOON AS MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER BKN/OVC SKIES.
THEREFORE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG WINDS WILL GET
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS EXPECT THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHER AS MIXING AND A
SOMEWHAT REINFORCING PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL WORK
TOGETHER. TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE QUITE A BIT...EVEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE FLINT HILLS. THINK A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL
EXIST FOR THIS AREA...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY FUELS...LOW
RH VALUES AND BREEZY WINDS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  25  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      44  25  63  26 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  24  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        43  24  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  26  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         41  24  57  25 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      44  25  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          41  23  60  25 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       43  24  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     43  23  55  25 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         40  21  51  23 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            39  20  49  22 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  21  54  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.