Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181709
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1209 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE IS MOISTURE RETURN AND PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND
QPF INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS MORNING...EFFECTIVELY MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COOL TRANQUIL EVENING AND NIGHT. THE NEXT
UPPER TROF MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN LATER TODAY THRU TONIGHT WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS LEAD WAVE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WITH BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE
MAIN TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE GOING
FORECAST. THE COMBO OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH LIMITING
ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WHERE A GENERAL 1.00 INCH OF QPF SEEMS QUITE
REASONABLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WHILE GENERALLY
NOT EXCESSIVE...THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RISES ON AREA RIVERS
WITH LOCALIZED MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE ON THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SIMILAR
PATTERN OF THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS WILL CONTINUE WITH WEEKEND
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. WHILE
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH FOR MORE PRECIP/CONVECTION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF
ACROSS THE PLAINS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE GOING FORECAST WILL BE MADE FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW LENDING TO MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 22 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE PICKING UP SOME LATE TUESDAY MORNING. MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  51  64  53 /   0   0  20  90
HUTCHINSON      71  49  61  49 /   0   0  30  90
NEWTON          70  48  62  50 /   0   0  20  90
ELDORADO        73  49  65  52 /   0   0  10  90
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  52  68  55 /   0   0  20  90
RUSSELL         67  46  56  45 /   0  10  70  90
GREAT BEND      68  47  56  46 /   0  10  70  90
SALINA          69  47  60  48 /   0   0  20  90
MCPHERSON       69  48  61  48 /   0   0  20  90
COFFEYVILLE     78  52  72  57 /  10   0  10  90
CHANUTE         74  50  68  54 /   0   0   0  90
IOLA            73  49  68  53 /   0   0   0  90
PARSONS-KPPF    77  52  71  56 /  10   0   0  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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