Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 121736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1136 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

The next few days will be marked by a steady warming trend as the
high pressure that brought the shallow arctic air into the region
will be transiting to the east.  This will bring the flow out of the
south over the next few days.  Monday looks to be last relatively
cold day as temperatures will struggle to get out of the upper 30s
and 40s as the winds will start out of the north but slowly
transition to a more southerly flow by late afternoon.  Tuesday, the
winds will be out of the south and the Gulf of Mexico will open up.
This will allow for some return flow to set up and allow for
temperatures to warm up nicely.  Wednesday will be the warmest day
of the week.  Winds will shift to a more southwesterly direction
which allows for a more down slope set up.  Moisture transport from
the Gulf of Mexico will continue and will gain support from an upper
level system at will be moving into the Rockies by this time.  WAA
will also be strong which will bring temperatures well above normal.
Record temperatures on most days during this time of year would be
possible but this Wednesday, records are hovering around 80 which
will make this rather difficult.  This is due to a decent potential
for afternoon cloud cover which is likely to stop temps from getting
too warm and the shear magnitude of the record highs for Wednesday.
This could especially true for the far southeast portions of the CWA
which have an outside chance for some shower activity.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018


The forecast really starts getting interesting for Thursday as a
powerful upper level system with an attendant frontal system and
arctic high will be entering the region around day break.  Usually
this far out, confidence on timing is rather low but the ECMWF and
the GEFS Plumes are remarkably close and the GEFS Plumes are showing
an unusually tight clustering between members.  This increases
confidence on the timing of the frontal passage to a more moderate
level. This indicates that temperatures across the CWA are likely
to take a rapid tumble through the day Thursday. Areas along the
I-70 corridor may not rise much and fall through the day while
areas in the far southeastern portions could push 70 then rapidly
drop off in the evening. As such, a wide temperature range is
likely. Unfortunately, this system does not appear to have enough
moisture to provide the region with much precipitation, despite
the moisture transport on Tuesday and Wednesday. The bulk of this
moisture transport appears to be focused further to the east. At
this time, it appears only south central and southeastern Kansas
will have much of a chance for rain and this looks to be fairly
light. It will not be until after sunset that it appears
precipitation chances increase enough to consider higher POPs for
areas further north. Again, this will be light for the most part.

Friday through Sunday....

The extended range will be marked by another steady warming trend as
the cold air that arrives on Thursday will only stick around for
Friday.  By Saturday, the winds will shift back around again to the
south and will allow temperatures to rise above normal.
Precipitation looks minimal to non-existent for the weekend with the
next chance for rain/snow likely to be early next week as new
weather system will be moving into the region.  This next weather
system could be the beginning of a pattern change which could open
up the possibility for more frequent precipitation events into next
week.  Confidence is low on this possibility.



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. The winds will
continue to swing to a more southerly direction on Tuesday. Winds
will pick up slightly on Tuesday as well. There is some hint at a
sharp increase in winds just above the surface. Some minor LLWS
due to increasing speeds may be noted.


Issued at 259 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Cooler temperatures today and lighter winds will keep the fire
danger to a minimum today.  Tuesday will be much the same despite
the warmer temperatures.  Wednesday and Thursday, the winds will pick
up.  This, combined with the warmer temperatures and relatively dry
conditions will bring the grassland fire danger index into the very
high category for much of south central and southeast Kansas.  This
condition will abate by Thursday afternoon and evening as much
colder air starts to advect into the region.



Wichita-KICT    42  24  51  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      41  22  50  35 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          39  21  49  36 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        41  22  51  39 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   44  25  52  40 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         37  20  52  32 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      38  21  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          39  21  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       40  21  50  35 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     47  23  51  41 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         44  22  50  39 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            43  21  49  39 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    45  23  51  41 /   0   0   0  10




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