Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200921
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
321 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Shortwave over the ern Rockies continues to make progress into the
plains at this time. Ascent ahead of this feature and warm advection
and low level moisture transport, has led to a large area showers
and thunderstorms moving across most of eastern KS (mainly east of I-
135) early this morning.  Latest hi-res model solutions show this
area of moisture transport and associated showers/storms shifting
slowly E-NE during the morning hours, lingering the longest over SE
KS. Most of the showers should shift east of the forecast area by
the afternoon hours.

As the showers shift east, expect a diminishing cloud trend for
central and south central KS as the main shortwave pushes across and
the area, with a surface trough pushing east. This will lead to nice
downslope flow on the west side of this system, with another well
above normal afternoon temp day after the clouds clear out.

Zonal progressive flow will lead a couple of more well above normal
temp days for Tue/Wed, as W-SW flow leads to good downslope
conditions. This will lead to max temps almost 20-25 degrees above
normal with very dry conditions expected. (see fire weather section
below)  Could even see some temps come close to record numbers for
portions of Central KS on Wed.

Another shortwave moving across the northern plains on Wed evening
will help drive a cold front into portions of Central Ks for Wed
night.  This will lead to slightly cooler temps for Thu, with temps
south of the stalled frontal boundary remaining well above normal.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Medium range models show the first in a series of shortwaves to move
out of the Rockies for late Thu night or on Fri.  As this shortwave
approaches, warm advection and lift will lead to a chance of showers
across northern KS possibly along or north of Interstate 70.  Colder
air further to the north of the stationary front may lead to a
chance of wintry precip across Neb and Iowa.  By Fri morning, some
of the precip across Central KS could change to a mix of rain/snow
for areas along the KS/Neb border.

As this initial shortwave pushes east on Fri, colder air on the
backside of this system, will plunge south across most of the
forecast area for Fri/Sat, with more seasonal type temps values in
the middle 40s for highs and middle 20s for lows.

Some uncertainty on how the end of the weekend will play out, as
both the ECMWF and GFS both show a shortwave moving along the
stalled frontal boundary in srn KS, for late Sat or on Sun. Both
solutions show some sort of precip chance for late Sat night or
early Sun, potentially in the form of a wintry mix.  Some question
on how much moisture will be available for this next system, but
looks like winter may make a return visit for the end of the
weekend, especially for Central KS.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

A line of showers/storms will move slowly eastward with a trailing
area of light rain showers. Meanwhile low clouds will gradually
erode from west to east on Monday as a surface front moves into
central Kansas late Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Clear skies and drier will move across portions of Central KS by
this afternoon. Lack of appreciable precip in this area will lead
to a very high fire danger across Central KS this afternoon.

Good downslope flow from the West and Northwest will lead to very
dry conditions and well above normal temps for Tue/Wed.  Relative
humidity levels may fall into the upper teens both days across
Central KS, which will lead to an elevated fire danger, with very
high to possibly extreme grassland fire danger values expected.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  40  73  44 /  20   0   0   0
Hutchinson      72  39  73  43 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          70  41  72  45 /  20   0   0   0
ElDorado        71  41  73  45 /  50   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   72  41  73  45 /  50   0   0   0
Russell         70  37  76  42 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      70  36  76  42 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          73  38  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       72  39  73  43 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     71  44  74  43 /  70  10   0   0
Chanute         71  44  73  44 /  50  10   0   0
Iola            71  43  73  44 /  60  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    70  44  73  44 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham



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