Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221800
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
100 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WIND ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON SATURDAY...THEN
CONVECTIVE CHANCES/SEVERE RISK SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A TRANQUIL
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVING
INTO THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST IS NEEDED WITH
MAXS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF. THE COMBO
OF GRADIENT FLOW AND DIURNAL MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AT
LEAST WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL YIELD MODEST INSTABILITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE IN CONCERT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AID
LIFT TO SUPPORT SLIGHT TO MODEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES. A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW WILL EVOLVE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING SUNDAY AS A DRY-LINE AT THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY-LINE AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 55 TO
60F RANGE ARE EXPECTED CREATE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45 TO
50KTS WITHIN A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
EXPECTED.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF/CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EVEN STRONGER WIND FIELDS AND
INSTABILITY LOOK TO EVOLVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...WITH
A HIGHER END EVENT VERY PLAUSIBLE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE
WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE PLAINS
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE SOME LIGHT FOG OVER SE KS ALONG WITH
STRONG SOUTH WINDS SAT.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME IFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN WORKING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS WITH SOME OF THIS POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KCNU IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THESE CIGS SHOULD NOT
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SE KS SAT
MORNING AND TO GET THE BALL ROLLING WILL JUST RUN WITH SOME 5SM AT
KCNU. SOUTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP EARLY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
30 MPH SPEEDS POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

DESPITE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT GREEN-UP OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  49  80  58 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      76  49  81  59 /   0   0   0  20
NEWTON          75  49  80  58 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        75  50  80  58 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  50  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  52  83  58 /   0  10  10  30
GREAT BEND      75  52  82  58 /   0  10  10  30
SALINA          75  49  82  59 /   0   0   0  30
MCPHERSON       75  49  81  58 /   0   0   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  50  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         73  49  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            73  50  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  50  79  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...KED



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