Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 260230
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
930 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THINKING SEVERE THREAT IS WANING...AND ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE
REST OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
BARTON-RICE-RENO COUNTIES AT 10PM. LARGE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER/COMPLEX WILL A HISTORY OF SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY OVER
WEST-CENTRAL KS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
INTO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...PROBABLY REMAINING JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
CLUSTER WILL HOLD ONTO A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL HIT-OR-MISS STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT NORTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING EAST-WEST NEAR HIGHWAY
50...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF
THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NORTHEAST KS TO CENTRAL/WEST-
CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. A 35-40 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
WESTERN KS WHICH WILL AID IN SUSTAINING INITIALLY DIURNAL-BASED
STORMS WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A
SLOW EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OVERNIGHT...AND HAS THE BEST
CHANCE TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MUCH LESSER PROBABILITIES
FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WHERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED. MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND MARGINAL-MODERATE DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS...WITHIN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
PLUME AXIS...COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG-SEVERE...MAINLY
MULTICELL STORM MODES. DOWNBURST WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...AND BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF
THE STRONGEST CORES. THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY/WARNING HEADLINES
FOR TODAY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02 UTC THIS EVENING.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
MORNING...HAVE MENTIONS OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS FIRM GRIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...HEAT WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. SUNDAY...HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 106 ACROSS THE REGION...UPON COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICE...HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES
WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
MIXING OUT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WHERE A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...THIS CONVECTION
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HEAT HEADLINES
AS HEAT INDICES UPWARDS OF 106 LOOK POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

JMC/JMR

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL
DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THE RETURN OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

JMR

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ORIENTED EAST-WEST IN THE VICINITY OF I-70 WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PRIMARILY THIS EVENING.
THINKING RSL-SLN AND POSSIBLY HUT HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO
SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR TS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WEAKENED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF ICT AFTER ABOUT 03Z...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR VCSH/VCTS INSERTION AT THIS TIME.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76 100  76 101 /  30  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      76 100  76 102 /  40  20  10  10
NEWTON          75 100  76 101 /  40  20  10  10
ELDORADO        76  98  75 100 /  20  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  97  76 100 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         73 100  75 103 /  50  20  30  10
GREAT BEND      73 100  75 103 /  50  20  30  10
SALINA          75 100  76 103 /  50  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       75 100  76 102 /  40  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  96  75  97 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         76  95  74  98 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            76  95  74  98 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    76  95  75  98 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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