Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 040538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1138 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 207 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

Strong post-frontal winds in the cold advection regime behind the
cold front on Monday is the main concern. A significant upper
trof will continue moving across the western CONUS this evening
and tonight, before moving into the northern/central Plains on
Monday. There remains continuity and model consensus on the
timing of the initial cold front across central Kansas to the
turnpike corridor by midday. Steep low level lapse rates are
expected in the cooling/much drier regime just behind this front
across central Kansas from late morning into the afternoon. The
deep mixing will result in transfer of higher momentum air to the
surface with winds expected to breach advisory criteria. The lower
humidity levels will also elevate the grassland fire danger.
Meanwhile, modest low level moisture transport will result in weak
to modest instability ahead of the cold front across southeast
Kansas. Some early morning drizzle will be possible with widely
scattered convection expected to develop by midday or early
afternoon. While isolated storms will be possible, it appears the
better lift and moisture will be realized as the convection
develops just east of the forecast area later in the afternoon
where a few strong storms will be possible. The upper trof will
deepen as it lifts northeast across the Upper Midwest/western
Great Lakes Monday night with the stronger secondary cold front
and much colder air plunging south across central and eastern
Kansas. This will result in temperatures closer to seasonal climo
on Tuesday, though feeling much colder considering the recent
stretch of mild weather. West to northwest winds look to become
gusty again Tuesday afternoon over central Kansas as well. The
first in a series of shortwave upper trofs will begin to move
south into the developing eastern CONUS longwave on Wednesday
with subtly cooler air settling south into Kansas.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

The deep longwave upper trof over eastern North America and high
amplitude blocking upper ridge near the west coast of North
America will prevail through the end of the week. Confidence
remains high on temperatures trending slightly below climo by
Thursday and Friday as rather robust shortwaves dropping south
within the mean longwave result in progressively stronger cold air
intrusions across the Midwest and lower Plains. Some very light
snow, mainly flurries, may also accompany this chilly air across
northern and eastern Kansas. There is some indication of the
western CONUS upper ridge weakening a bit by the weekend with the
mean trof shifting across the northeast CONUS. That said, only
minor temperature moderation is expected with readings climbing
to slightly above climo by Sunday.



.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

No major changes in thinking from 0000 UTC tafs. Main concerns
are timing of MVFR ceilings and frontal passage. RUC had right
idea on low clouds as evidence by expanding/developing clouds
across OK this evening. RUC has KHUT/KSLN on western fringes of
MVFR ceilings, although latest run makes it a bit less likely at
KSLN. Still close enough to stick near going forecast for there.
Frontal passage in the morning will shunt low level moisture east
fairly quickly. Very strong/gusty northwest winds will develop in
the wake of the front with only modest decrease at sunset. -Howerton


Issued at 207 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

Strong northwest winds and much drier air behind a strong cold
front on Monday will elevate the grassland fire danger into the
very high category from the Flint Hills westward across central
Kansas. The strongest winds and lowest humidity levels are
expected from midday thru the afternoon over central Kansas where
a few hours of extreme fire danger is possible. The Fire Weather
Watch may be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning with later forecast
updates if confidence increases on attaining the much lower dew
points in the afternoon.

The air will remain very dry on Tuesday with west to northwest
winds increasing again in the afternoon across central Kansas,
mainly closer to the I-70 corridor. This is expected to result in
a few hours of very high grassland fire danger.



Wichita-KICT    61  64  27  50 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson      58  62  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          60  62  25  48 /  10  10   0   0
ElDorado        62  65  27  49 /  10  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   62  67  28  51 /  10  10   0   0
Russell         51  56  21  48 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      52  57  21  48 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          58  62  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       57  62  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     62  70  31  51 /  30  50  10   0
Chanute         62  68  29  49 /  30  40   0   0
Iola            60  67  29  48 /  30  40   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    62  68  31  50 /  30  40  10   0


Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CST Monday through Monday
afternoon for KSZ032-033-047>051-067.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ032-033-



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