Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 151608
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1008 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

CURRENT LIGHT SNOW SYSTEM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
THE ADVISORY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WILL LIKELY CANCEL THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDDAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES IS A BIT MORE VIGOROUS AND LOOKS TO PROVIDE PORTIONS
OF FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH A SWATH OF
LIGHT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY. MORE ON THIS WITH NEXT ROUTINE
FORECAST UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

THE FIRST WEAK WAVE IS APPROACHING KANSAS FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE LIFT IS PLENTIFUL AND PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIGHT WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SNOW CHANCES
TODAY AND TOMORROW. SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN KANSAS AS OF
THIS ISSUANCE AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
OVER THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE AREA
OF GREATEST LIFT MOVING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY
TODAY. HAVE DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS REMAINING OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND RUSSELL TO SALINA.
HAVE 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THAT CORRIDOR WITH A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OVER
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HAVE KEPT THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS. FEEL THAT LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF THE TRACE TO 2 INCHES
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE SUNDAY.

BY AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT...BUT ANOTHER WAVE
WILL MOVE IN AND IMPACT WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS AS WELL AS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WAVE WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF SUPPORT SNOW FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE SNOW IN OKLAHOMA. DO
THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
WILL BE FROM THIS WAVE WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER...BUT HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COOL IN THE 20S AS A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET WITH THE
INTRODUCTION OF ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ARE LIKELY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

IN THE EXTENDED THE CENTRAL US REMAINS UNDER UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED BACK INTO THE 40S. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
DISCREPANCIES ARISE. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE GFS MOVES
THE DISTURBANCE FURTHER EAST. THUS THE ECMWF PULLS IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MORE
SEASONAL.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BAND OF SNOW
CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. CONDITIONS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KRSL AND
KSLN TERMINALS THIS MORNING THROUGH 16-17Z...WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE STRONGEST. BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT THE KHUT TERMINAL AS A
HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH. HAVE LEFT KICT AND KNCU IN VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH MENTIONS OF LIGHT SNOW...AS THE MAIN FORCING IS
TO THE NORTH.

ONCE SNOW COMES TO AN END...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT ALL
TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
WILL FOLLOW THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

JMR


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  19  29  17 /  40  30  20   0
HUTCHINSON      34  17  29  14 /  60  30  10   0
NEWTON          33  17  28  15 /  50  30  10   0
ELDORADO        35  19  28  16 /  40  20  20   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  21  28  17 /  30  30  30  10
RUSSELL         30  13  30  11 / 100  30   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  14  30  14 /  80  30  10   0
SALINA          32  14  29  14 /  80  20   0   0
MCPHERSON       32  15  28  14 /  70  20  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     37  24  28  17 /  20  20  30  10
CHANUTE         34  22  27  16 /  40  20  20  10
IOLA            32  22  26  16 /  50  10  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  23  27  15 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-
048-049-051>053.

&&

$$



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