Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 200424
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1124 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Currently have an upper trough extending from the Great Lakes
into the Ohio valley with nw flow aloft over the northern and
central Plains. At the surface, the front that surged through Sat
night is now situated down across southern TX and is much more
diffuse now. Another weak surface front extends from northern MO
into sw Nebraska.

Pesky mid level clouds today are the result of mid level warm
advection, more than likely above 700mb. This localized area of
clouds should continue slowly moving off to the southeast. NW flow
will remain over the area for both Tue and Wed as a surface high
slowly slides east. This will allow some higher dewpoints to work
back into western KS with a persistent surface trough extending
from sw Nebraska into western KS. Storms are expected to develop
during the late afternoons of both Tue and Wed over western KS
with this activity trying to track east into the evening
hours...possibly making it into central KS. Surface trough looks
to be a bit further east Wed which should result in slightly
better storm chances over central KS early Wed evening. At least
some strong storms look possible with this activity but should be
diminishing in intensity as they progress east. So, have higher
confidence in severe storms west of our forecast area.

Temps both Tue and Wed will be slightly above normal but won`t be
anything close to what we had toward the end of last week.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Forecast confidence starts to drop off significantly starting
Thursday. The ECMWF and NAM are more progressive with a cold front
Thu-Thu evening compared to the GFS. If the faster solution
verifies, than the northern half of the forecast area would have
decent storm chances late Thu afternoon and especially Thu evening
with these better chances staying north if the GFS pans out.
Making things more difficult, the GFS does have some support from
the Canadian model.

Differences continue into Fri with the GFS much more progressive
tracking shortwave energy out of the northern Rockies and across
the northern Plains. The ECMWF is about 24 hours slower with this
wave and thus is also much slower pushing a strong cold front
through. GFS brings the front through Fri night with the ECMWF
moving it through Sat night. Good storm chances will be tied to
the front so obviously confidence in the timing will be low until
models come into better agreement. Air behind the front will be
well below normal with highs potentially in the upper 70s to
around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period.
A gradual increase in the south to southwest surface wind is
expected by Tuesday afternoon. Isolated late afternoon convection
is expected across western Kansas on Tuesday, though any activity
should remain west of central Kansas until very late in the forecast
valid period. So for now have omitted mention of VCTS due to the
very low probability.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  92  70  93 /   0  10  10   0
Hutchinson      63  93  70  95 /   0  10  20   0
Newton          63  91  69  92 /   0  10  10   0
ElDorado        63  90  68  91 /   0   0  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   64  91  69  92 /   0   0  10   0
Russell         63  95  71  98 /   0  10  40  10
Great Bend      64  95  71  97 /   0  10  30  10
Salina          64  95  71  96 /   0  10  20   0
McPherson       63  94  70  95 /   0  10  20   0
Coffeyville     62  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         62  90  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            62  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    64  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED



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