Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 300801
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WITH A SECONDARY
EMBEDDED WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE. THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL
SCOOT ACROSS KANSAS TODAY AND COULD GENERATE MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER KANSAS WITH
PERSIST NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA.
ANY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE LIGHT DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY
BEING LOWER COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN
STORE FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL
SHOWS COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE
ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS COOLER AIRMASS EAST OF KANSAS. WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR ANY
POSSIBLE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE
OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS WILL END MOST OF THE VCSH AFTER ABOUT 08-
09Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS.  THINK THE LOW
STRATUS WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE AND DISSIPATE TOWARD MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.

COULD SEE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGER ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LINGERING MVFR CIGS NEAR KRSL.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  43  61  44 /  10   0  10  40
HUTCHINSON      61  42  59  42 /  10  10  10  40
NEWTON          63  43  60  43 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        65  44  62  44 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  44  64  44 /   0   0  10  30
RUSSELL         54  40  55  40 /  30  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      56  40  56  41 /  20  10  10  50
SALINA          60  42  57  43 /  20  10  10  40
MCPHERSON       60  42  58  42 /  10  10  10  40
COFFEYVILLE     72  46  64  46 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         71  46  62  45 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            70  46  62  45 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  46  64  46 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...BDK


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